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Fed Guy. CIO at Monetary Macro and previously a senior trader on the open markets desk. 
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Science assumes that there are stable underlying relationships that can be discovered - which is true in the natural world. But in the social world re...

2025-06-05 19:22:40

Science assumes that there are stable underlying relationships that can be discovered - which is true in the natural world.

But in the social world relationships between variables change, so there are no rules to discover. That is why economics will never be a science.



Douglas Irwin: Greg Mankiw on whether economics is a science (WSJ)

New Fed survey of NYC area businesses on tariffs show most had some passthrough, with many reporting a hit on their profits. https://libertystreetecon...

2025-06-04 22:41:34

New Fed survey of NYC area businesses on tariffs show most had some passthrough, with many reporting a hit on their profits.
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/06/are-businesses-absorbing-the-tariffs-or-passing-them-on-to-their-customers/

For foreigners, FX hedged Treasuries don't make sense due to the high hedging costs. Much better to stay home. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/u...

2025-06-04 20:02:51

For foreigners, FX hedged Treasuries don't make sense due to the high hedging costs. Much better to stay home.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/us-bonds-debt-foreign-investment-e9d22b74

RT Federal Reserve: Re @federalreserve announces that Wells Fargo is no longer subject to the asset growth restriction from the Board’s 2018 enforcem...

2025-06-04 04:02:03

RT Federal Reserve
Re @federalreserve announces that Wells Fargo is no longer subject to the asset growth restriction from the Board’s 2018 enforcement action against the bank: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20250603a.htm

RT Elon Musk: I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore. This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomin...

2025-06-04 01:31:31

RT Elon Musk
I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.

What if our political polarization is simply that we misconstrue the antics of the mentally ill as political positions?

2025-06-03 04:13:47

What if our political polarization is simply that we misconstrue the antics of the mentally ill as political positions?



Geiger Capital: ~50% of liberal women under 30 say they have a mental health condition. (Pew)

Cc: @NateSilver538