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A collection of written works, thoughts, and analysis by M.G. Siegler, a long-time technology investor and writer.
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Signal: Lego Heads 📧

2025-10-20 21:24:02

Back on the road again this week (have I mentioned how many breaks children get from school in Europe?), but as always will be writing here and there, just more sporadically.


I Wrote...

The Checkered Flag is Out, Apple Finally Takes F1 Rights
And all Apple TV subscribers will benefit!

Thoughts On...

🗣️ Andrej Karpathy on the Dwarkesh Podcast – The headlines are zeroing in on his poo-poo-ing of the imminent AGI hype, but there's a lot more in here (as you'd hope from a two and a half hour podcast!). Even just the first 30 minutes or so is worth your time as Karpathy lays out why he feels like all the comparisons of LLMs to the brain are wrong – hint: it's evolution, baby! – and why what we're actually building with the current AI systems may be more akin to ghosts than actual humans (they're echoes of us). And why dreaming (or the equivalent) may be a missing ingredient, in both flushing unneeded memory and fully committing other core learnings to the repository. It's almost more philosophical than technical, but we get to that as well. Such as when Karpathy breaks down his recent "nanochat" project and conveys just how much vibe coding still mainly sucks for all but the most rudimentary tasks (which is still valuable, as he notes). Mainly, it's somewhat amazing how eloquent while being erudite Karpathy is compared to some of his peers in the field. [Dwarkesh]

🧠 Xitter Rethinks Links – To be clear, it's not entirely clear that this signals a change in the way Xitter handles the ranking/surfacing of posts with links in their algorithm, but it at least suggests that they might go back to making such posts first-class citizens again. I know I'm not alone in thinking that just practically speaking, this was the worst change of the Elon-era. Twitter used to be the place to find and share links and just scrolling right now to try to see if I can test this new functionality, I'm hard-pressed to find a single tweet with a link shared in the main tweet (with most being relegated to a second tweet, which remains just farcical hoop-jumping bullshit). Obviously, the company believes this was a good change in an attempt to move beyond Twitter's roots and into the "everything app", but this change – help us, Nikita Bier, you're our only hope – may be an admission that it hasn't worked. Twitter, even as Xitter, remains the real-time news hub of the world. Just with a lot more spam and porn and a lot fewer links these days. Here's hoping... [Engadget]

💰 Meta's Private Capital AI Play – It's not just OpenAI and xAI that are figuring out "new ideas" for financing the billions needed for data center build outs. The difference, of course, is that unlike those two, Meta is wildly profitable. Still, this private capital SPV structure allows them to raise massive amounts of debt without it hitting their own balance sheet. And it allows Blue Owl – also the co-owner of the first 'Stargate' data center in Texas – to own most of Meta's 'Hyperion' data center in Louisiana (with Pimco as the anchor lender). And presumably the same model will be used for the just-announced new 1GW data center Meta is building in Texas too, alongside 'Prometheus' in Ohio – no word on the Greek God name for the Texas one yet. [Bloomberg 🔒]

📲 The iPhone Air Up There (And Down There) – A lot of conflicting reports as to just how popular (or not popular) the iPhone Air is thus far. While it apparently sold out in China after its (delayed) release, in the US and other Western markets, Apple may be cutting production already. Anecdotally, here in London, the Air remains widely available in stores while the iPhone 17 Pro is constrained. But even more interesting, the iPhone 17 "regular" seems to be the most constrained. The reports seem to back up that it's selling far better than the iPhone 16. It's possible Apple simply underestimated demand for the base model? Maybe people dig the colors? If the above is true, curious how Apple handles such data. Are future iPhone Airs aimed directly at China while iPhone "Regular" is more targeted at the West? Does it alter what was clearly the plan to slowly morph the Air into the "Regular" with iteration? Was I right in my pre-launch thinking as to why the Air was a gamble for Apple? [9to5Mac]

💩 Will AI Products Get Enshitty? – Steven Levy takes the publication of the book on "enshittification" to ponder the question author Cory Doctorow doesn't address (as it's still too new): how will this play out with AI? I mean, obviously it will play out the same as it has with every other product: the incentives will be too strong for this not to happen. Again, that's always the case (and why this happens in general, obviously). But I also think Doctorow (when Levy asked him) is right that it could happen faster with AI because of both the "black box" nature of these services and the insane amount of money already flowing through the systems to build them and make them work. Which is to say: enjoy the (subsidized) AI products we have right now. They sadly won't last. As least not in the same surprising and delightful way that we now enjoy. [Wired 🔒]


I Quote...

"The problem though, is we all know we can all watch everything, but it's very hard to find. You have to sign up for 1,200 subscriptions around them."

Eddy Cue, talking about the current problem with streaming content. Not mentioned, you also have to pay for those "1,200" subscriptions. All of this is why the players, including now Apple, are re-bundling. And that will continue.

But the real answer is an "iTunes" for the space – a unifier that just makes it all work, seamlessly. Apple, led by Cue, has been trying to do that for years already, but others – notably, Netflix – won't play ball. In part because they know what Apple wants to do: they saw it first hand with iTunes! What's great for consumers is less great for them...


Asides...

  • Amidst the AI talent brain drain, there are whispers inside Apple that iOS 26.4 – aka the "New Siri" – still isn't going to be up to snuff... [Bloomberg 🔒]
    • Other whispers suggest a team within Apple is quietly working on the deep iOS integration for Gemini (and Gemini 3 remains on track for December)... [Sources]
  • Speaking of Xitter, they're also launching a marketplace for inactive Twitter handles, but you have to pay the top tier prices to access them. [Verge]
    • Oh, and they're working on a way to essentially verify accounts without using the method they had and destroyed for verification. [TechCrunch]
  • Nintendo launched with solid Switch 2 inventory and saw record sales as a result, to the point where they continue to ramp supply. Feels like Playstation and Xbox could learn something there (if Microsoft even remains in this business). [Bloomberg 🔒]
  • Seems like Ilya Sutskever's OpenAI stake and whatever the "Brockman Memo" is may become bigger news soon with a court ordering both into the open. This is all from the Elon lawsuit, of course. [Information 🔒]
  • All things can be true: One Battle After Another can be fantastic and the biggest movie in P.T. Anderson's illustrious career, and also a big bomb at the box office (due to its budget), with $100M in projected losses. [Variety]

I Spy...

Police raided the home of someone suspected of stealing tens of thousands of Lego pieces and found... Lego figurines with their heads removed so they could be organized by facial expression. OCD much, (alleged) Lego thief guy?

The Checkered Flag is Out, Apple Finally Takes F1 Rights

2025-10-18 00:09:10

Apple and F1 reach 5-year media deal, bringing all races to Apple TV streaming in the U.S.
Apple and Formula 1 announced their long-awaited five-year U.S. media rights deal that will bring all U.S. televised races to Apple TV

One of the worst kept secrets in sports and media of the past several months is finally, officially done:

Apple and Formula 1 announced a five-year media rights deal Friday that will bring every F1 race to Apple TV beginning in 2026.

Apple TV will provide coverage of all Formula 1 events, including practice, qualifying and Sprint sessions, as part of the streamer’s existing $12.99 per month subscription, which comes ad-free. Certain F1 races and all practice sessions will also be available for free in the Apple TV app throughout the season, the companies said in a statement.

That last bit is actually a bit of a surprise. Unlike with their MLS deal, Apple apparently won't be upselling everyone on F1, instead it will be included with Apple TV – not the box, the service formerly known as Apple TV+ (Eddy Cue insists this isn't confusing, but it's certainly confusing to write about). That's great news, both for Apple TV subscribers and for F1. I suspect it's also something F1 wanted given Apple TV's relatively small reach – certainly compared to ESPN, their current partner that they're leaving in the dust here – they don't want to limit the audience further than they already are here.

A tangential interesting tidbit:

F1 TV Premium, the league’s own content offering that’s popular with racing fans, will continue to be available in the U.S. but will now require an Apple TV subscription. Once a customer subscribes to Apple TV, F1 TV Premium will be included in their Apple subscription rather than as a standalone offering.

This service was apparently another hold up, with many wondering if it would just go away (at least in the US) with an Apple deal. But it will remain as sort of a "pro" offering for F1 fans – though nicely not in price, as it's also included with Apple TV, the service, not the box. That's also great and important because while F1 has been growing as a sport in the US, it's not as popular as it is in Europe and elsewhere. Now it will be on Apple's shoulders to help with that.

Well, and Netflix. That's always been a wrinkle here. One big reason why the sports' popularity has been growing in the US (and around the world) is the Drive to Survive series which Netflix has been showing for years now. This is a big part of the reason why the initial rumors of a change in distribution partners included the world's biggest streaming service. But to me, it always felt like Apple would be in the running here – this just felt like an Apple move (least of which because Eddy Cue is on the board of Ferrari) – as I wrote back February on the Netflix rumors:

One more thing: Apple remains a wildcard given their own sports ambitions. And the fact that their biggest swing yet for Apple TV+, the Brad Pitt-starring, Joseph Kosinski-directed F1 movie, is coming this summer. Then again, they seemingly like deals such as the one they have with MLS for worldwide rights. Per this report, F1 would prefer to spread such rights out and Sky Sports in the UK already has a much longer deal with F1, so worldwide is likely out of the picture. Still, it would be cool to see an F1 race in 'Immersive Video'. And I'd bet that Eddy Cue agrees (and don't forget)...

And I doubled-down on that notion in May as Apple started to ramp up the (very expensive) marketing for F1, the movie:

The new trailer for F1 — aka, the movie that will make or break Apple’s feature film ambitions after some comically bad decisions — continues to look great. The exact type of movie that demands you see it in a theater. Ideally, an IMAX. And it should cement Joseph Kosinski as the king of big budget action movies in Hollywood. Still weird that Apple isn’t pushing harder for the actual F1 rights in light of this?

Well, the movie hit and was a hit (optically, if not exactly fiscally). And that probably sealed this deal. And now here we are with Apple paying a lot of money for a sport after paying a lot of money for a movie about the sport.

Apple is paying about $140 million per year for the racing rights, according to people familiar with the matter. Disney’s ESPN is the incumbent media partner for the league and had been paying about $85 million per year on average, according to people familiar with that deal, who asked not to speak publicly because the details are private.

This is where Apple is Apple and Disney is Disney. One is a nearly $200B media company, the other is a nearly $4T tech company. $140M is very relative here. Apple makes that amount of revenue in about 3 hours.1

And the countdown is now officially on for F1 2...

One more thing: it's clearly just a matter of time until we do get a full-on Apple Immersive experience here. That probably wasn't a major selling point of this deal, but it also couldn't have hurt. The version Apple has of this already is awesome. And now with the move (finally) into real time immersive sports content coming with some NBA games, hopefully this is something Apple can ramp quickly. That would help both F1 and help Apple sell some Vision Pros!

👇
Previously, on Spyglass...
Apple’s Formula for F1
The movie is good, will the actual rights to the sport be for Apple?
Apple Finally Has a Hit Movie, But at What Cost?
I mean that both literally and figuratively as ‘F1’ was beyond expensive to make and beyond in-your-face to market
Netflix Feels the Need for Live Speed
While perhaps not in pole position, an F1 deal would be yet another live sports lap
Apple’s Pitt Stop
The drive to survive the theatrical box office starts anew…
The Apple Car May Have Flopped, Apple’s Car Movie Should Not
It’s just a teaser trailer, but ‘F1’ looks great.

1 Incidentally the amount of time set up for an F1 race when there are red flags or other delays...

Signal: How You Like Them Apples? 📧

2025-10-17 22:39:50

Forget about whether or not Apple it matters right now that Apple is behind in AI. The reality is that without the right talent, they'll never be able to catch up and that's... well, it's increasingly an issue, it seems. Is Mark Zuckerberg specifically going after Apple's team sensing the weakness? As payback for ATT back in the day? Or is that just the cherry on top? Regardless, it's not a good situation in Cupertino...

Apple’s AI Brain Bleed
Meta keeps poaching Apple’s AI talent and that’s a real problem…

Thoughts On...

💻 Touchscreen MacBook Pros – While the rumor isn't new, Apple can't love the timing of Mark Gurman's report here given that they just announced the M5 MacBook Pro (with the M5 Pro and M5 Max models still to come early next year). Because of course who would buy an M5 version when the M6 version is going to be completely overhauled to allow them to become the first touchscreen Macs? Then again, they'll undoubtedly be more expensive as a result. And we'll have to see how Apple tweaks macOS to allow for the combination of a "refrigerator and a toaster" – hopefully such words have been in the fridge all these years as Tim Cook will now apparently be eating them. But this was always inevitable, literally this morning I had to stop my daughter from touching the screen on my MacBook because all she's ever known are touchscreen devices. It seems weird to kids that there are screens you don't touch. And now you also know why Apple doesn't just let us run macOS on the (very capable) iPad Pros... [Bloomberg 🔒]

📉 Oracle's Margins – "Let's not talk about my margins, by the way... being nice and fat. That's a nice shirt, do they make it for men?" It's one of the best scenes in The Big Short, and what popped into my head reading about Oracle's situation which is clearly highly fluid with regard to their margins as they transition to becoming more and more of a GPU reseller/data center play. The one key question buried in here – which has long been the key question – just how much do margins improve on older NVIDIA chips, since everyone is clearly losing money on initial deployment? The numbers aren't clear and they're clearly obfuscated. The fear, of course, is that while they can be operated with far better margins, the demand isn't there for obsoleted chips. In a way, this feels like the whole ballgame, at least for the neoclouds. [Information 🔒]

🎬 Hollywood Has No Idea What To Do About AI – No surprise that an industry which famously leans on legacy and is slow to change with any times seems befuddled about what to do as AI enters their picture. The vanilla talking points seem to betray a "damned if we do, damned if we don't" mentality. As Alex Heath notes, the music industry seems to be handling it a bit better, undoubtedly because they've been through a version of this battle in the Napster era. Hollywood had the YouTube situation, but it was far less existential than some believe this to be (but it won't be). The reality here will be that the technology will always be not just one step ahead, but about 3 steps ahead, and gaining steps each year. So the strategy has to be a very high level one, because playing whack-a-mole won't work. [Sources]

🛢️ Fracking Data Centers – Forget OpenAI working on magical new methods of financing to build their own data centers, we now have two year old startups doing the same. Poolside teaming up with CoreWeave feels like yet another layer in the cycle. They clearly think they have a unique opportunity thanks to a natural gas pipeline in Texas, which sort of feels like a variation of Patrick Collison's old joke about SaaS ads and airports – only this isn't really a joke as much as it's reality: if a pocket of power generation appears, a data center will form around it. CoreWeave will be the anchor tenant in 'Horizon', supplying Poolside with enough NVIDIA chips to train their own models for their coding products. Naturally, NVIDIA is an investor in both CoreWeave and Poolside. The startup is also in the midst of a new $2B round ($14B post) led by Magnetar, the largest investor in... CoreWeeeeeave. [WSJ 🔒]

🍎🦚 Apple TV + Peacock – With the great re-bundling well underway, Apple finds their first partner in the form of Peacock, the other sub-scale player in the space – especially if Paramount scoops up HBO Max (preventing Apple from doing the same). This makes sense as it gives Apple TV subscribers more sports while it gives Peacock subscribers better content. It also creates a new incentive to sign up for Apple's own 'Apple One' bundle, as you get an even better deal on Peacock. Mainly, I enjoy that Apple dropped the '+' just in time to partner with a service which brings their own '+' to the table in the form of 'Peacock Premium Plus' – alliteration FTW, redundant branding FTL. Assuming any takeover of WBD takes months, if not years (if it ever happens), might Apple add HBO Max and/or Paramount+ to the mix next? [THR]


I Quote...

"Yes, I do love Winds of Winter. I haven’t lost interest in it. I’m still working on it, but honestly, I love these other things, too. I don’t have any kids. Some of you probably have kids. Maybe you have more than one kid, Johnny and Freddie and Susie. Maybe some of them become coke heads, and you still love them."

George R. R. Martin, ostensibly explaining the status of Wild Cards, but also explaining where on Earth the next Song of Ice and Fire book is – over 14 years since the last one was published. Hell, even the show ended over six years ago. With many other projects coming and going in between. Is that movie still in the works too?


Asides...

  • We're entering a strange world where living celebrities are trying to entice people to use their images on AI networks, while the likeness of deceased figures are being pulled – MLK being a prime example on Sora. [TechCrunch]
    • Videos can now be longer with storyboarding capabilities, as capacity constraints seem to be easing while content restraints keep closing in... [@OpenAI]
  • Speaking of data center power sources, Amazon is offering a "first look" at their Washington nuclear plant (due in the early 2030s) which would use small modular reactors to output just about 1GW (if it works). [Verge]
  • There's both a monetary black hole joke and a singularity joke to be made in OpenAI's move to hire an actual black hole physicist, so I'll just leave it there. [Axios]
  • Good on Ron Conway for backing away from Salesforce in protest of Marc Benioff's buffoonish comments in ongoing attempts to get a seat at the table he's seemingly not invited to without the (in)appropriate fealty. [NYT]
  • Does the M5 iPad Pro's new chips signal Apple's broader efforts into home automation? Including, eventually with the 'HomePad' new device? [Verge]
  • One clear side effect of the end of the penny is likely to be an increased push to use mobile payments. [NYT]
  • I missed this last month, but Joseph Kosinski's reboot of Miami Vice is underway, targeting an August 2027 release. I guess Top Gun 3 and F2 will have to wait. Still sad he didn't get his crack at Tron 3... [THR]
  • A wild story about the cracking of the Kryptos code found in the statue outside of the CIA headquarters. It's a combo of inadvertent social engineering mixed with a bit of perhaps illness-related sloppiness, and there's quite the legal unease about the whole thing with an auction for the final key upcoming... [NYT]

I Spy...

The limited edition $1 California Steve Jobs coin which will cost $13.25 to purchase during its run in 2026 (or you can get all four in the current collection, one of which is also the Cray-1 Supercomputer in Wisconsin, for $27.50 – Trump coin not included). Maybe not the best likeness, but still sort of wonderful. And yes, they are legal tender.

Apple's AI Brain Bleed

2025-10-16 21:32:36

Apple's AI Brain Bleed

Picture this: Mark Zuckerberg is with his boys walking by the Blue Bottle in Cupertino. He notices Tim Cook inside with a group of Apple employees. He goes over and knocks on the window to get Tim's attention. Zuck shouts through the window, "do you like apples?" Tim nods, "yeah." Zuck pulls out a napkin with the name 'Ke Yang' written on it and slams it against the window. "Well I got your AI guy. How you like them apples?"

This scene popped into my head upon reading the news that Meta has poached one of Apple's key AI employees. I'm sorry, I should be more specific, because this has happened about a dozen times now. Here's Mark Gurman with the report for Bloomberg:

The Apple Inc. executive leading an effort to develop AI-driven web search is stepping down, marking the latest in a string of high-profile exits from the company’s artificial intelligence division.

The executive, Ke Yang, is leaving for Meta Platforms Inc., according to people with knowledge of the matter. Just weeks ago, he was appointed head of a team called Answers, Knowledge and Information, or AKI. The group is developing features to make the Siri voice assistant more ChatGPT-like by adding the ability to pull information from the web.

I honestly go back and forth about how important or unimportant it is that Apple is far behind in the AI race right now. After all, it's clearly still early with so many pieces moving insanely fast. Certainly there's a school of thought that Apple should simply sit back and wait while OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta and everyone else battle with their cash cannons to see how it all shakes out. But the other reality here may be that the field is moving so fast and is so vital to the future of well, everything, that Apple may never be able to catch up in technology that ends up being core to everything they do.

As always, the reality is probably somewhere in between, but I tend to lean towards the notion that Apple is playing with fire here simply because the only way they're going to be able to enter the space, even later, is with the right talent around the table. And, well, they clearly can't keep the talent around the table! And the reason they can't is clearly because they've so badly bungled their AI initiatives to date. So it's sort of this doom loop in which Apple finds itself – seemingly just months from having to ship the new Siri. And they can't afford to fuck it up this time because they already did that once. So... this is not a great look nor situation.

Speaking of "afford", Zuck must smell Apple's weakness here. And of all the current Big Tech rivalries (so, Elon Musk and Sam Altman aside), clearly Meta hates Apple more than anyone else. Zuck obviously feels like Cook screwed him on the ATT stuff back in the day, but even post-recovery, the situation remains that Meta is completely beholden to Apple on many fronts because they control the devices on which Meta's products are used. From their social networks to their smart glasses. He's trying like hell to change that, but it's going to take years, maybe decades, if it ever works. And so Zuck is shifting the battlefield to one he can control.

While Zuck has struggled to get some of the top AI talent in the world to accept his "Godfather" offers – seemingly mainly because many are more mission-oriented around AI and Meta is well, Meta – he keeps upping the ante. God knows what he paid to finally convince Andrew Tulloch to turn his back on Thinking Machines Lab, but it clearly starts with a "b" and ends with an "s". So yeah, Zuck is willing to do whatever it takes to try to win here. And it's perhaps not completely irrational when you consider how much all of these companies are spending on AI infrastructure. What good is all of that if you don't have the talent to utilize it? That doesn't make all of this any less insane.

But the one company not spending hundreds of billions on AI servers? The company Meta is clearly having no problem poaching from. Low-hanging fruit, as it were. And it has the added benefit of screwing over Apple at a critical time. For Zuck, it's a type of payback that money can't buy. Well, technically it can. And has.

Apple is in real trouble here. Again, not because they need to be full-on in the AI race right now. But because they keep losing all the people that will allow them to enter it at some point. That alone may make the case for making a massive acquisition. Is, say, $100B too much to pay for a talent acquisition? I mean, undoubtedly not for Zuck!

But for Apple...

The problem is that even if they did pull such a trigger, Apple would still have to retain that talent. And they have not proven adept at doing that! Beyond the money – they would clearly need to pay these people tens of millions or perhaps hundreds of millions (in stock at least) to retain them. But just as vital would be putting a world-class team and game plan around them, so they're not tempted by Zuck's billions. Only really Anthropic has a proven ability to do that thus far.

Meanwhile, Apple's historic strength: a culture that values consistency, secrecy, scarcity, and yes, longevity, may not be a culture best suited to compete in AI. Clearly.

While I like what I think is Apple's general game plan at the moment, to retreat to their strength in hardware, as Apple has told everyone for decades: it's hardware plus software that's the key to making the devices sing. And if AI is the key to future software... Well, they need to be there at some point. And it's not just hard to do that without the right talent, it's impossible.

How do you like them apples, Apple?

Apple's AI Brain Bleed

👇
Previously, on Spyglass...
Apple Weighs the Voting Machine
Will they do a big AI deal? Should they?
Apple's AI Brain Bleed
Apple’s Flight to Safety
A refocusing on design and hardware might be a good sign…
Apple's AI Brain Bleed
The Captains of CapEx
...and then there’s Apple.
Apple's AI Brain Bleed

Signal: An M5 Smack in the Face 📧

2025-10-16 00:53:42

As expected (and previewed by Apple execs yesterday), a few new Apple products quietly hit today via press releases (no videos I've seen yet). And they're all about the new M5 chip: MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, Vision Pro.

Again, nothing too surprising, except perhaps how they're actually showing more specs for the iPad Pro? Or the fact that there's no trade-in option for the first Vision Pro to "upgrade" here. That seemingly doesn't speak well to demand for a used version of the very inconvenient (but still technologically impressive) device. But you'd think the fact that Apple didn't lower the price of the Vision Pro from the silly $3,500 would have opened a market for, say, a $1,999 pre-owned M2 Vision Pro? I mean, it still wouldn't have sold well, but maybe some enterprises and/or developers would have bought them?

It's also just an extraordinary middle finger to those of us who went out and bought the Vision Pro on day one like schmucks. Granted, we went in eyes wide open, literally. But still, you'd think Apple would want to keep those early adopters most interested in the ecosystem by giving them some sort of upgrade deal? But nope, not Apple.

Not even a free new Y-band – sorry, "Dual Knit Band". You want Apple's admission that their initial straps weren't any good while this one is actually "comfortable"? That'll be $99. Basically: enjoy your newly slow and outdated Vision Pro, losers.


I Wrote...

Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube’s Eyeballs
The video podcast partnership may portend a bundle…

Take One...

🗣️ Eddy Cue on Apple's Hollywood Goals – Kudos to Matt Belloni for trying like hell to get Cue to say something interesting about Apple's strategy, but all we really get is something along the lines of the goal is "to make good movies" (which, subjectively they really did not until F1) and "good TV shows" (which, subjectively they have) and some variation of the standard Apple talking point about the focus being on "the best, not the most" (or "first", in the case of many of Apple's devices). The biggest headline was probably Cue saying that Apple TV – the artist formerly known as Apple TV+ – has "significantly more" than the estimated 40M to 45M subscribers. Oh yes, and some color around said name change which amounted to a variation of my opening paragraph on the news (there was no non-plus, so why was it 'plus'?). Of course, there is a non-plus on the hardware and app side, but Cue seemed almost flippant on that – could that be a sign the Apple TV set top box will get a name change? And, of course, he danced around the notion that they could buy Warner Bros Discovery, which almost reads like that his thoughts might be different if Paramount doesn't buy them and the studio separates... He also deflected a question about their non-moves in podcasting, which was interesting given today's news about Netflix and... [The Ringer]


I Quote...

"We're hearing that some criminals are stopping dealing drugs and moving on to the phone business because it's more lucrative."

Sarah Jones, the UK's policing minister, talking about the stolen phone epidemic in London. Amazingly, it sounds like one phone (seemingly with 'Find My' still enabled) was able to locate thousands of others which led to arrests which may have shut down the main pipeline of the thefts.

As someone who had my iPhone swiped out of my hands in broad daylight on the streets of London, I hope so!


Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs

2025-10-15 16:26:34

Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs

Spotify partnering with Netflix on anything would be a big deal given the position of each in their respective markets. But partnering around video podcasts seems particularly interesting given who they're both clearly aiming at...

On one hand, this is an admission that Spotify can't possibly hope to catch YouTube in video podcasts. No surprise there just given YouTube's scale – a scale which has already pushed the world's biggest video service to also be the world's biggest podcasting service, without even really trying. Spotify could either paddle against the current and try to get more exclusive content – but they already had that in the form of... the largest podcast in the world, and even restricting Joe Rogan from YouTube didn't really work, and now he's back – or they could figure out another path.

On paper, the world's largest streaming music service partnering with the world's largest streaming video service sounds sort of terrifying. Except that technically, YouTube is bigger at music than Spotify and bigger at video than Netflix. Add in the aforementioned podcasting, and they're sort of the hidden elephant in many rooms.1

Netflix, of course, has a different agenda. While they're increasingly what cable used to be for many homes, they can't possibly hope to scale the way YouTube has without UGC. This Spotify deal gives them UGC, in a way. I mean, The Ringer content is obviously more professional than just anyone with a phone recording themselves. But it's also, perhaps, just a start. Netflix will continue to say they have no desire to fully do UGC, and that's undoubtedly true right now. But as they go further down the advertising path... the more content the better. Basically as Ted Sarandos said in the Q1 earnings when asked specifically about podcasts.

This is a competition for literal eyeballs. And YouTube dominates them in all these verticals. Oddly not in "premium" content where Netflix dominates, but it only feels like a matter of time until they're back competing in that world too, especially as they keep expanding YouTube Premium. Remember when Cobra Kai launched as a YouTube original only to be handed on a silver platter to Netflix? Yeah, they're gonna want another shot at this at some point. It's Google! Initiatives are cancelled only to be rebooted only to be cancelled only to be rebooted...

The fact that as a part of this deal, Netflix is requiring that the videos not be posted to YouTube in full – i.e. only clips for promotional purposes – says all you need to know here. While Spotify can't compete with YouTube in video, Netflix can and will.

For The Ringer, which is, of course, owned by Spotify, this makes a lot of sense too. Why not hitch your wagon to the world's largest streaming service as a way to differentiate from everyone else just battling for eyeballs on YouTube? This is a greenfield on Netflix. Anything the service promotes will get millions and millions of views. The fact that founder Bill Simmons has maintained his connections to the premium video world with various docuseries, including for Netflix at times, can't hurt either. (And yes, there's the growing sports angle for Netflix.)

But will Netflix be able to lure others? Again, maybe if they upsell the notion of crossing into other premium video offerings. Or if Spotify and Netflix deepen the relationship... As I wrote back in July around the reports that Netflix and Spotify were discussing partnering on certain types of content:

Continuing to do more "traditional" television things like talent and award shows is obvious for Netflix, the conversations with Spotify are potentially more interesting if they also bring about a television/music bundle. That's not what this report says, but it seems like a logical extension of any partnership for the most popular streaming television and most popular streaming music platforms. After all, Apple and Amazon already have such TV/Music bundles internally... 

Third parties have been bundling these two, but a formal bundle is probably just a matter of time, especially if they can collaborate on their fledgling ads businesses. A world which, yes, YouTube dominates.

One more thing: what on Earth is Apple doing here? The company that literally gave podcasting a name continues to fall further back in the market here. Perhaps the hiring of NPR's podcast chief (who was at Gimlet/Spotify before that) signals a change of strategy? Might we see video podcasts come to Apple TV+ – sorry, Apple TV – too? Or a 'Podcasts+' offering as part of the Apple One bundle? There's someone out there twisting in the wind if they want to do a proper premium offering...

Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs
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Previously, on Spyglass...
Pod is Dead
Podcasting evolved away from Apple and towards... YouTube?
Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs
Can Apple Make Premium Podcasts Happen?
SiriusXM either thinks so or hopes so or just hey, why not?
Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs
Apple Should Sign Howard Stern and Launch ‘Podcasts+’
They may not care about podcasting, but they *do* care about Services…
Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs
‘Apple TV+’ Podcasts Should Just Be ‘Apple Podcasts+’?
Why have podcasts that have nothing to do with the service or app or set top box of that name?
Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs
The Greatest Trick Netflix Ever Pulled...
...was convincing the world they weren’t interested in live sports
Spotify & Netflix Gun for YouTube's Eyeballs

1 It is interesting how OpenAI's Sora has jumped out to a quick lead in AI-focused video, even though YouTube just announced their own major push there. Perhaps it's another market they will with time and scale, or maybe it's something that doesn't work on YouTube because the community rejects it?