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site iconKevin KellyModify

Senior Maverick at Wired, author of bestseller book, The Inevitable. Also Cool Tool maven, Recomendo chief, Asia-fan, and True Film buff.
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Weekly Links, 06/27/2025

2025-06-28 04:21:00

Weekly Links, 05/23/2025

2025-05-24 02:35:00

Weekly Links, 04/25/2025

2025-04-26 02:18:00

  • Something I knew nothing about: the degree to which job interviewees are trying to cheat with AI, and the difficulties that makes for good hires. Tech hiring: is this an inflection point?
  • Excellent article on why humanoid robots are slow in coming and why it may take a lot longer to arrive in your home. Robot Dexterity Still Seems Hard
  • There are a number of medical technologies that are feasible in the short term but lack sufficient funding to make them happen. I can’t vouch for this list of good tech that could but probably won’t happen in 5 years, but it is a good place to start. 10 technologies that won’t exist in 5 years

Epizone AI: Outside the Code Stack

2025-04-22 08:22:45

Thesis: The missing element in forecasting the future of AI is to understand that AI needs culture just as humans need culture.

One of the most significant scientific insights into understanding our own humanity was the relatively recent insight that we are the product of more than just the evolution of genes. While we are genetic descendents of some ape-like creatures in the past, we modern humans are also molded each generation by a shared learning that is passed along by a different mechanism outside of biology. Commonly called “culture”, this human-created environment forms much of what we consider best about our species. Culture is so prevalent in our lives, especially our modern urban lives, that it is invisible and hard to recognize. But without human culture to support us, we humans would be unrecognizable.

A solo, naked human trying to survive in the prehistoric wilderness, without the benefit of the skills and knowledge gained by other humans, would rarely be able to learn fast enough to survive on their own. Very few humans by themselves would be able to discover the secrets of making fire, or the benefits of cooking food, or to discover the medicines found in plants, or learn all the behaviors of animals to hunt, let alone the additional educations need for the habits of planting crops, learning how to knap stone points, sew and fish.

Humanity is chiefly a social endeavor. Because we invented language – the most social thing ever – we have been able to not only coordinate and collaborate in the present, but also to pass knowledge and know-how along from generation to generation. This is often pictured as a parallel evolution to the fundamental natural selection evolution of our bodies. Inside the long biological evolution happening in our cells, learning is transmitted through our genes. Anything good we learn as a species is conveyed through inheritable DNA. And that is where learning ends for most natural creatures. 

But in humans, we launched an extended evolution that transmits good things outside of the code of DNA, embedded in the culture conveyed in families, clans, and human society as a whole. From the very beginning this culture contains laws, norms, morals, best practices, personal education, world views, knowledge of the world, learnable survival skills, altruism, and a pool of hard-won knowledge about reality. While individual societies have died out, human culture as a whole has continued to expand, deepen, grow, and prosper, so that every generation benefits from this accumulation.

Our newest invention – artificial intelligence – is usually viewed in genetic terms. The binary code of AI is copied, deployed, and improved upon. New models are bred from the code of former leading models – inheriting their abilities –, and then distributed to users. One of the first significant uses for this AI is in facilitating the art of coding, and in particular helping programmers to code new and better AIs. So this DNA-like code experiences compounding improvement as it spreads into human society. We can trace the traits and abilities of AI by following its inheritance in code.

However, this genetic version of AI has been limited in its influence on humans so far. While the frontier of AI research runs fast, its adoption and diffusion runs slow. Despite some unexpected abilities, AI so far has not penetrated very deep into society. By 2025 it has disrupted our collective attention, but it has not disrupted our economy, or jobs, or our daily lives (with very few exceptions).

I propose that AI will not disrupt human daily life until it also migrates from a genetic-ish code-based substrate to a widespread, heterodox culture-like platform. AI needs to have its own culture in order to evolve faster, just as humans did. It cannot remain just a thread of improving software/hardware functions; it must become an embedded ecosystem of entities that adapt, learn, and improve outside of the code stack. This AI epizone will enable its cultural evolution, just as the human society did for humans.

Civilization began as songs, stories, ballads around a campfire, and institutions like grandparents and shamans conveyed very important qualities not carried in our genes. Later, religions and schools carried more. Then we invented writing, reading, texts and pictures to substitute for reflexes. When we invented books, libraries, courts, calendars, and math, we moved a huge amount of our inheritance to this collaborative, distributed platform of culture that was not owned by anyone.

AI civilization requires a similar epizone running outside the tech stack. It begins with humans using AI everyday, and an emerging skill set of AI collaboration taught by the AI whisperers.There will be alignment protocols, and schools for shaping the moralities of AIs. There will be shamans and doctors to monitor and nurture the mental health of the AIs. There needs to be corporate best practices for internal AIs, and review committees overseeing their roles. New institutions for reviewing, hiring and recommending various species of AI. Associations of AIs that work best together. Whole departments are needed to train AIs for certain roles and applications, as some kinds of training will take time (not just downloaded). The AIs themselves will evolve AI-only interlinguals, which needs mechanisms to preserve and archive. There’ll be ecosystems of AIs co-dependent on each other. AIs that police other AIs. The AIs need libraries of content and intermediate weights, latent spaces, and petabytes of data that need to be remembered rather than re-invented.  There are the human agents that have to manage the purchase of, and maintenance of, this AI epizone, at local, national and global levels. This is a civilization of AIs.

A solo, naked AI won’t do much on their own. AIs need a wide epizone to truly have consequence. They need to be surrounded and embedded into an AI culture, just as humans need culture to thrive.

Stewart Brand devised a beautiful analogy to understand civilizational traits. He explains that the functions of the world can be ranked by their pace layers, which depend on all the layers below it. Running the fastest is the fashion layers which fluctuate daily. Not far behind it in speed is the tech layer, which includes the tech of AI. It changes by the week. Below that, (and dependent on it), is the infrastructure layer, which moves slower, and even slower below that is culture, which crawls in comparison. (At the lowest, slowest level is nature, glacial in its speed.) All these layers work at the same time, and upon each other, and many complex things share multiple levels. Artificial Intelligence also works at several levels. Its code-base improves at internet speed, but its absorption and deployment runs at the cultural level. In order for AI to be truly implemented, it must be captured by human culture. That will take time, perhaps decades, because that is the pace of culture. No matter how quick the tech runs, the AI culture will run slower.

That is good news in many respects, because part of what the AI epizone does is incorporate and integrate the inheritable improvements in the tech stack and put them into the slower domain of AI culture. That gives us time to adapt to the coming complex changes. But to prepare for the full consequences of these AIs, we must give our attention to the emerging epizone of AIs outside the code stack.

The Pace Layers of Civilization – Caterina.net

Weekly Links, 03/21/2025

2025-03-22 04:45:00

  • This article “Fetility on Demand” by @RuxandraTeslo is a fantastic report on one way to increase the fertility rate by artificially extending reproductive age. Fertility on demand

Best Thing Since Sliced Bread?

2025-03-15 01:23:23

The other day I was slicing a big loaf of dark Italian bread from a bakery; it is a pleasure to carve thick hunks of hearty bread to ready for the toaster. While I was happily slicing the loaf, the all-American phrase “the best thing since sliced bread” popped into my head. So I started wondering, what was the problem that pre-sliced bread solved? Why was sliced bread so great?

Shouldn’t the phrase be “the best thing since penicillin”, or something like that?

What is so great about this thing we now take for granted? My thoughts cascaded down a sequence of notions about sliced bread. It is one of those ubiquitous things we don’t think about.

  1. Maybe the bread they are talking about is fluffy white Wonder bread that crushes really easy. That might be hard to slice, and so getting white bread pre sliced is nice.
  2. Maybe the bread they are talking about is not as tender as it is today, and it was actually tough to slice very thin for a sandwich. Buying pre slice saved embarrassment, and so in that respect it was a wonder.
  3. Maybe it is hard to automate sliced bread, and while not that much of a selling point, maybe it took some technical innovation to make it happen. Otto Frederick Rohwedder, an American inventor, developed the first successful bread slicing machine in 1928, but it took some years for the invention to trickle into bakeries around the country.
  4. Maybe this was a marketing ploy by commercial bread bakers, to sell a feature that becomes a necessity.
  5. Maybe this phrase has always been said ironically. Maybe from the beginning everyone knew that sliced bread was a nothing burger, and it was meant to indicate that the new thing was no big deal.  Only later did the original meaning lapse and it become un-ironic.
  6. Maybe it is still ironic, and I am the last person to misunderstand that it is not to be taken as an indicator of goodness.

Turns out I am not the first to wonder about this. The phrase’s origins lie — no surprise — in marketing the first commerical sliced bread in the 1930s. It was touted in ads as the best new innovation in baking. The innovation was not slices per se, but uniform slices. During WWII in the US, sliced bread was briefy banned in 1943 to conserve the extra paper wrapping around sliced bread for more paper for the war effort, but the ban was rescinded after 2 months because so many people complained of missing the convienence of slice bread — a time when bread was more central to our diets. With the introduction of a mass-manufacture white bread like Wonder Bread, the phrase became part of its marketing hype.

I think the right answer is 4 — its a marketing ploy for an invention that turns a luxury into a necessity. I can’t imagine any serious list of our best inventions that would include sliced bread, although it is handy, and is not going away.

That leads me to wonder: what invention today, full of our infactuation, will be the sliced bread of the future?

Instagram? Drones? Tide pods, Ozempic?

This is the best thing since ozempic!