2026-09-12 22:03:08
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Today at a glance:
🎨 Adobe: 100M Free Creators
🐶 Chewy: Treats Get Cut
📈 WealthFront: Assets Outrun Revenue
Adobe Q3 revenue rose 13% Y/Y to $6.8 billion ($60 million beat), with non-GAAP EPS of $6.13 ($0.04 beat). Total ARR grew 11% Y/Y to $27.5 billion. Margins expanded, while operating cash flow hit a Q3 record of $2.5 billion.
Creative freemium MAU surpassed 100 million, up more than 70% Y/Y, while Adobe crossed 1 billion total monthly active users. AI-first ARR also climbed above $650 million, growing more than 150% Y/Y, but still only 2% of the total.
The audience growth comes with a near-term tradeoff. Management acknowledged that the shift toward freemium contributed to slower net new ARR and RPO growth, as Adobe prioritizes acquisition and engagement before monetization. Agentic products and credit-based AI usage remain the main path to converting that engagement into revenue.
Adobe also named Anil Chakravarthy as its next CEO, effective December 1, with Shantanu Narayen moving to Executive Chair. Chakravarthy currently leads Adobe’s Customer Experience business, signaling continuity around the push toward AI-powered workflows across creative and enterprise products.
Adobe raised FY26 revenue guidance slightly to $26.58–$26.63 billion (from $26.50–$26.60 billion). Q4 revenue guidance was slightly below expectations, sending shares modestly lower.
Bottom Line: Adobe is proving it can still attract users in the AI era. The harder part is converting them. Freemium creative users have now crossed 100 million and AI-first ARR is growing rapidly, but total ARR is still expanding only around 11%. The next phase of the story is monetization rather than adoption.
2026-09-11 20:04:13
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Meta launched Muse, a personal AI agent that can send emails, shop, book travel, and keep working after you close the app. Muse reached #3 in the US App Store within two days, and Meta says usage has already blown past expectations.
More importantly, it pushes Meta into the race to own the consumer agent, leveraging its massive distribution today and AI glasses tomorrow. New $20 and $100 monthly tiers also offer one of Meta’s clearest paths yet to monetizing AI beyond advertising.
Meanwhile, Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon quit, warning that leading AI labs are "gambling with our lives." Anthropic alignment lead Evan Hubinger went further, putting the odds of AI killing all humans within the next decade above 10%. Not exactly ideal PR ahead of a potential IPO.
On that cheerful note, Apple just kicked off the Ternus era with its latest iPhone launch, while Oracle faced another test of the AI infrastructure boom.
Today at a glance:
📱 Apple: The $2,000 iPhone
☁️ Oracle: 850 Megawatts Later
New Apple CEO John Ternus just unveiled the iPhone Duo, the company’s first foldable phone, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro, new Watches, and AirPods.
The Duo starts at $1,999 and can reach an eye-watering $3,199 with 2TB of storage. It was actually less than some analysts expected given the current RAM-aggeddon. But beyond the sticker shock, the launch says a lot about where Apple sees its next growth opportunities.
Apple is seven years late to foldables. Samsung launched its first Galaxy Fold in 2019, yet the category still represents only about 2% of global smartphone shipments.
That could change quickly. Industry estimates suggest Apple could sell roughly 6 million Duos in 2026 despite launching in late October, potentially capturing around a quarter of the foldable market almost immediately. Some forecasts see first-year sales approaching 10 million units.
That would be an impressive entrance, but it also puts the opportunity in perspective. Apple sells well over 200 million iPhones each year. Even 10 million Duos would represent only a small fraction of its annual volume.
So Apple could become one of the largest foldable vendors almost overnight without foldables becoming a major growth driver.
Apple generated roughly $210 billion of iPhone revenue last year, so even a successful Duo launch is unlikely to transform the company. If Apple sells 10 million at an average price around $2,000, that would represent roughly $20 billion of revenue. But most of those customers would have bought another iPhone anyway.
iPhone remains Apple’s core cash engine, but hardware growth now relies almost entirely on pricing power rather than unit volume.
What matters here are the incremental economics. Someone opting for a $1,999 Duo instead of a $1,299 Pro Max adds roughly $700 of revenue per customer. Across 10 million buyers, that’s ~$7 billion of incremental revenue before considering the much pricier storage configurations.
Apple is also raising prices elsewhere after the recent memory crunch. The new iPhone Pro and Pro Max both increased by $100, while several older models also became more expensive. There is no standard iPhone 18 this fall either, meaning anyone who wants the newest generation has to buy a Pro or Duo.
The Duo may remain niche, but it gives Apple room to push iPhone average selling prices materially higher.
Apple also used the event to clarify where it fits in the AI race.
Ternus spent time describing an Intelligent Personal Hub, walking through the features the perfect AI device would need and making it sound like he was about to unveil something revolutionary. He concluded that this device already exists. It’s the iPhone. It sounded almost like an early rebuttal to OpenAI and Jony Ive’s work on a new AI device.
The new Siri can use personal context from messages, emails, photos and apps, understand what is on the screen, and take actions across the operating system. Apple is extending similar capabilities to the Watch, including AI-generated recaps and health insights.
That is a very different strategy from OpenAI or Anthropic. Apple does not need users spending hours inside an Apple chatbot. Its advantage is controlling the device, operating system, and personal context where AI can become useful.
Apple can also rely on outside models when needed while keeping control of the customer experience. In other words, Apple does not necessarily need to win the foundation-model race to benefit from AI.
The monetization is indirect too. Better AI can make the next iPhone more compelling, increase attachment to the Watch and AirPods, and make it harder to leave the ecosystem. Apple does not need a $20 monthly Siri subscription if AI helps sell more $1,200, $2,000, or even $3,000 devices.
Takeaway: The Duo is the flashy part of this week’s launch. But the broader strategy is familiar. New technology gives customers another reason to move up the hardware ladder and stay within the ecosystem.
Oracle’s AI story has been easy to summarize over the past year. It signed enormous contracts first, spent enormous sums building the capacity to serve them, and promised the revenue would follow.
That promise finally started showing up in the August quarter.
Oracle delivered 850 megawatts of new data center capacity in Q1 FY27, almost triple what it delivered in Q4 FY26, while deploying more than 300,000 GPUs. OCI revenue more than doubled, total revenue accelerated to 30% growth, and the company still added another $26 billion to its enormous backlog.
The stock jumped after hours. After months of concern about Oracle’s debt, dilution, and massive AI spending, investors finally got more evidence of what all that money is buying. But even after the bounce, shares remain roughly 50% below their September 2025 peak.
🚀 Growth accelerated again: Revenue reached $19.3 billion, up 30% Y/Y and ahead of Oracle’s 27%–29% guidance. Adjusted EPS reached $1.92, comfortably above the $1.74 consensus.
☁️ OCI more than doubled: Cloud revenue grew 62% to $11.6 billion, led by OCI growth of 121% to $7.4 billion. Cloud applications grew a much slower 10% to $4.2 billion, while traditional software revenue fell 3% to $5.6 billion.
📦 The backlog is still growing: RPO reached $664 billion, up $209 billion Y/Y and $26 billion sequentially. Oracle booked more than $30 billion of additional AI cloud contracts during the quarter, even as it began converting more of the existing backlog into revenue.
💰 The CapEx number needs some context: Reported CapEx reached an extraordinary $28.5 billion, contributing to roughly $5 billion of negative free cash flow (and $29 billion in the past 12 months). But customer prepayments covered $11 billion of the infrastructure spending, bringing Oracle’s net cash outlay to roughly $18 billion. Oracle also completed its previously announced $20 billion equity offering. Oracle is burning cash to build infrastructure, but customer checks are softening the blow.
📈 The backlog is becoming real revenue: OCI growth accelerated from 93% to 121% as Oracle nearly tripled the capacity it brought online. The bull case is no longer based only on a giant RPO number. Oracle is now showing it can turn that backlog into revenue, while demand for AI training and inference still exceeds available capacity.
💵 Customers are sharing the financing burden: Customer prepayments are becoming a meaningful part of Oracle’s AI funding model. The company still had to fund roughly $18 billion of net CapEx in Q1, but customers effectively financed more than $11 billion of the buildout. Oracle also said its latest $30+ billion of AI contracts require no incremental increase to its planned capital raise.
⚖️ Gross margins are under pressure: Oracle’s gross margin fell roughly 6 percentage points Y/Y as lower-margin OCI became a much larger part of the revenue mix. But that pressure has not flowed through to operating margins yet. GAAP operating margin expanded by nearly 6 points to 35%. So far, operating leverage elsewhere is absorbing the infrastructure mix shift.
Oracle expects cloud revenue growth to accelerate again to 65%–71% in Q2 FY27. With demand already under contract, attention is increasingly shifting to execution and economics. Can Oracle bring capacity online fast enough, fund roughly $70 billion of net CapEx this year, and maintain attractive margins as infrastructure becomes a much larger part of the business?
Takeaway: Oracle no longer needs to prove that AI demand exists. Q1 showed that it can turn that demand into capacity and revenue at remarkable speed. The remaining question is whether the economics justify the enormous capital required to get there. This quarter was an important step toward proving they can.
That's it for today.
Happy investing!
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Disclosure: I own AMD, AMZN, GOOG, META, and NVDA in App Economy Portfolio. I share my ratings (BUY, SELL, or HOLD) with App Economy Portfolio members.
Author's Note (Bertrand here 👋🏼): The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely my own and should not be considered financial advice or any other organization's views.
2026-09-08 20:01:14
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Oura started as a niche sleep tracker and has become one of the breakout consumer health products of the decade.
It still looks like a hardware company. But the S-1 tells a more interesting story.
Revenue surged 74% Y/Y to $1.2 billion in the first nine months of FY26, which ends in September. The company is profitable, and 5 million members now pay for the software layer attached to the ring.
The main question is whether Oura remains a hit hardware vendor or successfully scales into an enduring consumer health platform.
I condensed 300+ pages of the S-1 into a clean breakdown, supported by our signature visuals. By the end, you'll have a clear view of the Oura investment case.
Today at a glance:
Overview
Business Model
Financial highlights
Risks & Challenges
Management
Use of Proceeds
Future Outlook
Personal Take
Oura was founded in Finland in 2013 around a simple idea: the finger is a particularly good place to measure the body.
Compared with the wrist, Oura says the finger can provide a much stronger photoplethysmography signal, helping improve measurements such as heart rate and heart rate variability. The ring form factor also encourages continuous wear.
Headquarters: San Francisco, California
Ticker: OURA (Nasdaq)
Mission: Empower people to live healthier, longer
Latest product: Oura Ring 5, launched June 2026
Oura has evolved from a sleep-and-recovery tracker into a broader health wearable covering more than 50 health and wellness metrics, including activity, stress, heart health, metabolic health, and women’s health.
That expansion has helped turn smart rings from a niche product into a meaningful wearable category.
Oura sold 3.6 million rings in the 12 months through June 2026, compared with approximately 212 million wearable devices shipped globally.
That’s only around 2% of global wearable shipments.
I don’t own an Oura Ring myself. I lift weights regularly, and having to take a ring off during strength training undermines some of the appeal of an always-on fitness tracker for me. But living in San Francisco, it sometimes feels like every woman around me does. And the S-1 actually backs that up:
72% are women
73% are 45 or younger
63% report household income above $100,000
More than half report at least one chronic condition
What’s particularly interesting is that Oura isn’t replacing smartwatches.
For many users, the ring is creating a new slot on the body rather than fighting directly for the wrist. Many members either had no previous wearable or continue wearing another alongside it.
Takeaway: Oura has already built meaningful scale, but it still represents only a small fraction of global wearables. Oura’s runway depends less on stealing smartwatch share than on making smart rings a much larger category.
Oura makes money in two ways:
2026-09-05 22:00:19
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📊 Monthly reports: 200+ companies visualized.
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Today at a glance:
📈 Broadcom: AI Target Jumps
💻 Dell: Margins Catch Up
📡 HPE: Juniper Starts Paying Off
🌱 MongoDB: Enterprise Advanced Roars Back
☁️ Zscaler: Usage Revenue Takes Off
🌐 Samsara: Large Deals Accelerate
🧘🏻 Lululemon: Leggings Lose Ground
✍️ DocuSign: IAM Hits 15% of ARR
⚡️ NIO: Margins Hold Up
🤖 UiPath: AI Reaches 18 of Top 20 Deals
🛠️ GitLab: Bookings Break Out
📝 Asana: AI Hits 25% of New ARR
Broadcom Q3 revenue (July quarter) surged 86% Y/Y to $29.6 billion ($160 million beat), with non-GAAP EPS of $3.32 ($0.08 beat).
Semiconductor solutions as a whole grew 127% to $20.8 billion, driven by AI semiconductor revenue, which jumped 221% Y/Y and 54% Q/Q to $16.7 billion, exceeding the $16 billion outlook from last quarter.
Infrastructure software also accelerated to 29% growth at $8.8 billion.
The bigger news was the forward reset for next year. Broadcom now expects $115 billion of AI semiconductor revenue in FY27, up from the $100 billion target that disappointed investors in Q2, followed by an extraordinary $230 billion in FY28. Q4 AI revenue is expected to reach $21.7 billion, up 236% Y/Y, another acceleration.
The customer mix includes the usual suspects. Anthropic is expected to become Broadcom’s largest custom XPU customer in FY27, with OpenAI potentially second, while Google remains a multi-tens-of-billions annual business. Meta is also ramping across multiple chip generations. Management says demand from its four largest AI customers continues to exceed what Broadcom can physically supply.
That bottleneck is prompting more vertical integration. Broadcom is bringing substrate production online in Singapore in FY27 while scaling networking alongside custom compute, including its new 200 Tbps Tomahawk 7 Ethernet switch.
Bottom Line: Q2 left investors wondering whether management was sandbagging with its $100 billion FY27 AI target. Now we know, with a $15 billion raise after just one quarter. The $230 billion FY28 outlook implies AI semiconductor revenue nearly quadrupling from FY26 in just two years. Now it’s all about how quickly Broadcom can secure enough capacity to satisfy that demand.
2026-09-04 21:50:22
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For the past two years, software investors have worried that AI would eat into seats, pricing, and eventually the software model itself.
This week, Palo Alto Networks and Snowflake showed the other side of that trade.
Palo Alto is seeing AI create more identities, traffic, and attack surfaces to secure. Snowflake is seeing AI workloads drive more consumption across the data platform.
In both cases, AI is driving more usage across the software stack.
Today at a glance:
☁️ Palo Alto: AI Security Comes Together
❄️ Snowflake: AI Fuels Consumption
Palo Alto closed Q4 FY26 (ending in July) with revenue up 34% Y/Y to $3.4 billion ($60 million beat), while non-GAAP EPS reached $1.02 ($0.04 beat).
Acquisitions still make the headline growth rate messy, but the underlying demand indicators were strong. Palo Alto added a record $970 million of net new Next-Gen Security ARR, while landing roughly 220 net new platformizations, up 44% and twice the Q3 pace. If you recall, platformization is the fancy word for multi-product adoption.
Palo Alto finished FY26 with a 38% adjusted free cash flow margin, essentially preserving its high-30s profitability while absorbing two major acquisitions (CyberArk and Chronosphere).
The GAAP numbers weren’t as pretty. Palo Alto swung to a $282 million net loss, but this was mostly accounting noise driven by one-off acquisition adjustments. The quarter notably included a $524 million mark-to-market charge related to CyberArk convertible notes, along with $281 million of acquired intangible amortization and $487 million of stock-based compensation.
FY27 revenue guidance of $14.1–$14.2 billion implies 23%–24% growth and came in above consensus, while management expects NGS ARR to grow 22%–23% to reach ~$11.1 billion and maintained its 38% adjusted FCF margin target.
Management also reaffirmed its 40%+ adjusted free cash flow margin target for FY28 and $20 billion NGS ARR target for FY30.
The central question for investors is whether this M&A spree creates genuine platform synergies. Early cross-sell data suggests it is.
Next-Gen Security ARR reached $9.1 billion, up 63% Y/Y, while remaining performance obligations climbed 34% to a record $21.2 billion. Those growth rates still benefit heavily from CyberArk and Chronosphere, so they shouldn’t be read as organic growth.
But Palo Alto provided another useful lens for FY26:
Network & AI Security revenue: +17% Y/Y.
Cortex revenue: +25%.
Idira (CyberArk rebranding) revenue: +21% on a pro forma basis.
In other words, each major platform is growing at a healthy double-digit rate.
More importantly, customers are consolidating more spending with Palo Alto. Net retention among platformized customers remained above 120%. More than 65% of NGS ARR now comes from platformized customers.
Palo Alto’s customers spending more than $5 million in NGS ARR rose 45% Y/Y to 223, while customers above $10 million increased 50% to 78. One Q4 telecom deal alone was worth $126 million and combined firewalls, SASE, Idira, and Cortex XSIAM.
AI agents generate machine-to-machine traffic, access credentials, query internal data, and increasingly take actions autonomously. Palo Alto says agentic traffic across SASE has increased more than 9x in nine months. That makes AI both a new attack surface and a catalyst for upgrading legacy security infrastructure.
Palo Alto is building around three main layers:
Prisma AIRS: Secure the AI. ARR reached roughly $120 million only one year after launch, making it Palo Alto’s fastest-scaling product. Customers jumped from more than 300 in Q3 to more than 800 in Q4. AIRS now spans runtime security, agent identities, red teaming, observability, and agent gateways.
Cortex: Detect and respond. XSIAM ARR surpassed $700 million, up roughly 70% Y/Y, with close to 1,000 customers. Chronosphere’s observability ARR also crossed $500 million, more than 2.5x its level just two quarters ago. Half of Chronosphere’s Q4 net-new logos included an XSIAM cross-sell, showing Palo Alto is already plugging the acquisition into the broader platform.
Idira: Control identity and access. The $25 billion CyberArk acquisition gives Palo Alto control over the credentials and permissions used by humans, machines, and AI agents. Early cross-selling is encouraging: CyberArk ACV grew 27% Y/Y, Palo Alto generated more than 200 CyberArk new-logo wins from its existing installed base, and shared leads between the two sales organizations have increased by roughly 50% since May.
That creates a fairly simple architecture: AIRS secures AI applications and agents, Cortex detects and responds when something goes wrong, and Idira controls what they can access.
But wait! There’s one more layer: autonomous action. Alongside earnings, Palo Alto announced the acquisition of Console, an AI-native platform that lets users build agentic workflows using natural language. The goal is to move Cortex beyond surfacing security issues toward agents that can investigate and remediate them automatically.
In CEO Nikesh Arora’s words, this is the shift toward “software-as-an-agent.”
Takeaway: Palo Alto is starting to show that its acquisition spree is creating something bigger than the individual parts. Platformization is accelerating, AIRS is scaling rapidly, and CyberArk and Chronosphere are already cross-selling into the broader platform. AI is becoming both a demand catalyst and a real revenue stream. The main challenge ahead is justifying a much richer valuation. The stock has roughly doubled since we last added to our PANW position in App Economy Portfolio in March.
Snowflake’s growth acceleration is no longer looking like a one-quarter blip.
Product revenue surged 37% Y/Y to $1.49 billion, up from +34% Y/Y last quarter and +30% two quarters ago. Total revenue rose +35% Y/Y to $1.55 billion ($70 million beat), while non-GAAP EPS was $0.62 ($0.17 beat).
Management also raised FY27 product revenue guidance by $230 million to $6.07 billion, lifting expected Y/Y growth to 36%.
So if we zoom out, the FY27 product revenue growth outlook has moved from 27% to 31% to 36% in the past six months. And there might be more acceleration ahead. Q3 guidance calls for 37%–38% product revenue growth, slightly faster than Q2.
CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy revealed on the call that AI products directly explain roughly half of Snowflake’s recent growth acceleration. But AI’s true impact may be larger because it is also accelerating migrations and increasing consumption across the core data platform.
Net revenue retention: 126% (+1pp Y/Y).
$1M+ customers: 828 (+27% Y/Y).
Remaining performance obligations: $9.0 billion (+30% Y/Y).
Non-GAAP operating margin: 15% (+4pp Y/Y).
GAAP operating margin: -17% (+13pp Y/Y).
RPO remains the softer metric, dipping sequentially from $9.2 billion to $9.0 billion despite 30% Y/Y growth. Some of that reflects Q2 renewal seasonality and faster burn-down as customers consume ahead of contractual schedules. In a consumption model, actual platform usage and product revenue remain cleaner indicators of business health.
The gap between GAAP and adjusted margins remains enormous because Snowflake still relies heavily on stock-based compensation, which accounted for 27% of revenue. Still, that ratio is down 12 percentage points Y/Y. The absolute level remains high, but the direction is clearly improving.
Cortex Code (CoCo) surpassed 9,100 accounts, adding more than 2,000 during the quarter, while CoWork expanded to 5,800 accounts.
These products enable direct AI consumption, but the bigger opportunity lies in the second-order effect.
Customers need more governed data available to their AI applications. More users can interact with that data through conversational interfaces. Agents can increasingly retrieve information, analyze it, and take actions. Each additional workload increases Snowflake consumption.
AI is also helping Snowflake bring workloads onto the platform faster. Coding models can automate parts of legacy migrations that historically required large teams and months or years of manual rewriting.
So AI creates new workloads, but also makes it easier to move onto Snowflake in the first place. That helps explain why the core business is accelerating alongside the AI portfolio rather than being cannibalized by it.
The customer data supports the same story. Snowflake added 692 net new customers, up 32% Y/Y, indicating strong momentum.
A total of 65 customers now generate more than $10 million in trailing annual product revenue, up from 45 a year ago. In a consumption model, that expansion matters. Snowflake needs customers to keep discovering new ways to use their data. AI is giving them just that.
Snowflake lowered its FY27 non-GAAP product gross-margin outlook from 75% to 74%, partly because AI products carry additional model and inference costs. But operating-margin guidance moved in the opposite direction, rising from 13.5% to 14.5%. This confirms continued operating leverage alongside accelerating top-line growth.
In other words, Snowflake is choosing to absorb some near-term AI costs while the broader platform scales.
Takeaway: Snowflake’s AI thesis is moving from defense to offense. This quarter showed that AI can make that governed data layer more valuable. Product growth has accelerated from 30% to 37% in two quarters, and operating margins are expanding at the same time. So far, Snowflake looks increasingly like one of the software companies where AI expands consumption rather than cannibalizing it.
That’s it for today!
Happy investing!
Thanks to Fiscal.ai for being our official data partner. Create your own charts and pull key metrics from 50,000+ companies directly on Fiscal.ai. Save 15% with this link.
Disclosure: I own PANW and CRWD in App Economy Portfolio. I share my ratings (BUY, SELL, or HOLD) with App Economy Portfolio members.
Author's Note (Bertrand here 👋🏼): The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely my own and should not be considered financial advice or any other organization's views.
2026-09-01 20:01:42
Welcome to the Premium edition of How They Make Money.
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What to expect in our monthly report?
New IPOs: SpaceX, Cerebras
Hardware: Sandisk, HP, Lenovo
Chip Design: NVIDIA, AMD, ARM
Infrastructure: Arista, Cisco, CoreWeave, Nebius
Gig Economy: Uber, DoorDash, Grab, Instacart
Digital Banking & Lending: Nu, Klarna, Affirm, Chime
Merchant Software & Payments: Intuit, PayPal, Block, Toast
Global Commerce: MercadoLibre, Alibaba, PDD, Sea, Shopify
Data & AI: Palantir, Datadog, Elastic
Productivity: HubSpot, Veeva, Zoom, Monday
Software Stack: Salesforce, Workday, Atlassian, Figma
Cybersecurity: CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, SentinelOne, Rubrik
Streaming: Disney, Warner Bros., Paramount, FOX, Spotify
Gaming: Tencent, NetEase, Nintendo, Sony, Take-Two
Social & Ads: Snap, Pinterest, Match, AppLovin
Sports betting: DraftKings, Flutter
Retail: Walmart, Target, Best Buy, Home Depot, Lowe’s
Big Pharma: Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Merck, Amgen
Travel: Booking, Airbnb, Expedia, Marriott, Tripadvisor
Restaurants: McDonald’s, RBI
