2026-08-11 20:01:19
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For years, media companies treated streaming like a land grab. That era is ending.
Streaming is starting to look like a mature business. Disney reached a 13% streaming margin, Paramount hit 15%, and Warner Bros. came in at nearly 17%. Subscriber totals matter less than churn, pricing, engagement, and how much profit each viewer can generate.
Meanwhile, the businesses streaming is replacing keep shrinking. Warner’s Networks revenue fell 17%. Paramount’s TV Media declined 9%. Cord-cutting and weaker advertising continue to eat away at linear TV.
Paramount’s Warner Bros. deal has cleared most international regulators, but a US antitrust fight has pushed the timeline into 2027. The longer it drags, the more expensive the deal becomes.
Can streaming profits grow fast enough to outrun the decline of the old bundle? And how expensive could the merger delay become?
Today at a glance:
🏰 Disney: Parks Answer the Doubters
🎥 Warner: Box Office Whiplash
⛰️ Paramount: Stronger Before the Storm
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Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, so the June quarter was Q3 FY26.
📸 Big picture: Revenue rose +7% Y/Y to $25.2 billion ($0.2 billion miss), while adjusted EPS jumped +28% to $2.06 ($0.21 beat). Total segment operating income rose +21% to $5.6 billion, ahead of expectations. Disney maintained its FY26 outlook for ~12% adjusted EPS growth and raised its buyback target again to at least $9 billion.
📈 Streaming margin expands again: Disney+/Hulu revenue grew +11% to $5.5 billion, while SVOD operating margin reached 13%, extending last quarter’s profitability inflection. Disney remains on track for double-digit streaming margins in FY26, though management says international monetization still has room to improve.
🍿 Entertainment gets its hit: Entertainment operating income surged +64% Y/Y, helped by streaming profitability and Toy Story 5, which crossed $1 billion at the global box office. The film also lifted merchandise sales and Disney+ engagement, showing how a successful franchise can reverberate across the company.
🏰 Experiences answer the skeptics: Experiences revenue rose +10% to a record $10.0 billion, while operating income jumped +20% to $3.0 billion. Domestic park attendance grew +3%, and per-guest spending rose +4%, with Walt Disney World having a particularly strong quarter. International visitation remains soft, but forward bookings are healthy.
🏈 Sports remains the weak spot: Sports revenue reached roughly $4.5 billion, while operating income fell -17% to $858 million, hurt by shorter NBA playoff series and rights timing. ESPN remains the clearest drag on Disney’s otherwise improving profit mix.
🤖 Disney+ gets a roadmap: CEO Josh D’Amaro said Disney will begin expanding Disney+ beyond video in spring 2027, adding games, merchandise, and other experiences designed to lower churn and increase lifetime fan value. Disney is also considering free ad-supported offerings as it turns Disney+ into the company’s broader digital hub.
Bottom Line: Streaming profitability is becoming repeatable, while Experiences just delivered the quarter investors feared it couldn’t. That gives D’Amaro more room to execute his “One Disney” strategy, with Disney+ increasingly positioned as the front door to content, commerce, and experiences.
2026-08-08 22:02:33
Welcome to the Saturday PRO edition of How They Make Money.
Over 300,000 subscribers turn to us for business and investment insights.
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📊 Monthly reports: 200+ companies visualized.
📩 Tuesday articles: Exclusive deep dives and insights.
📚 Access to our archive: Hundreds of business breakdowns.
📩 Saturday PRO reports: Timely insights on the latest earnings.
Today at a glance:
💊 Eli Lilly: Volume Crushes Price
🦠 Merck: The Bridge Broadens
🧬 Amgen: Growth Outruns the Cliff
🇩🇰 Novo Nordisk: Pill Holds Up
💉 Pfizer: Pipeline Questions
🌐 Arista Networks: Supply Catches Up
💾 Sandisk: AI Eats NAND
☁️ Cloudflare: Agentic Acceleration
🌊 DigitalOcean: AI Accelerates
🐶 Datadog: AI Concentration Bites
☁️ Atlassian: Enterprise Breakout
📢 HubSpot: Pricing Pivot Bites
🎨 Figma: AI Credits Scale
🏴 Klaviyo: Agents Gain Traction
💬 Twilio: Expansion Returns
💻 Paycom: Margins Do the Work
⚡️ Axon: Dedrone Breaks Out
🤝 MercadoLibre: Brazil Bet Pays Off
🥡 DoorDash: DashPass Takes Over
🇰🇷 Coupang: Customers Return
🥕 Instacart: Customers Come Back
📦 Etsy: Back to Etsy
🍞 Toast: Locations Reaccelerate
🔲 Block: Square Catches Up
💳 Fiserv: Reset Gets Deeper
🪙 Circle: Arc Hits the P&L
🏠 Zillow: Growth Without Traffic
🏝️ Booking: Travel Holds Up
🛖 Airbnb: Hotels Check In
🏨 Marriott: US Momentum Holds
✈️ Expedia: Consumer Catches Up
📱 AppLovin: Model Timing Miss
📺 The Trade Desk: Growth Stalls
📌 Pinterest: Growth Speed Bump
👻 Snap: Reset Starts Working
🎧 Spotify: 300 Million Paid
🔥 Match Group: Tinder Stabilizes
🦉 Duolingo: Streak Revival
🗞️ NYT: Subscriber Growth Slows
🚲 Peloton: Profit Without Growth
🎮 Sony: Beyond PlayStation
🎮 Take-Two: GTA VI Preorders Explode
📺 Fox: World Cup Windfall
🏈 Flutter: FanDuel Needs a Reset
👑 DraftKings: Predictions Get Expensive
🍟 McDonald’s: Value Misfires
🍔 RBI: Burger King Breaks Out
🌭 Kraft Heinz: Green Shoots
⚡️ Celsius: Alani Carries the Portfolio
Lilly’s Q2 revenue jumped 48% Y/Y to $23.0 billion ($2.3 billion beat), while adjusted EPS was $8.38 ($1.80 beat). Revenue growth came from a 60% increase in volume, more than offsetting a 13% decline in realized prices.
Mounjaro surged 91% to $9.9 billion and Zepbound grew 46% to $4.9 billion, bringing combined GLP-1 revenue to nearly $15 billion. International Mounjaro sales more than doubled to $5.2 billion as Lilly expands access globally, despite significant price reductions including China reimbursement.
Foundayo, Lilly’s newly launched oral GLP-1 obesity pill, generated $98 million in its first quarter on the market. The next-generation pipeline also advanced materially: retatrutide (triple-hormone obesity injection targeting GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon) delivered positive results in three additional Phase 3 obesity trials. Lilly plans to file with the FDA in Q1 2027.
Lilly raised FY26 revenue guidance to $85–$87 billion, a $2.5 billion midpoint increase. Underlying EPS guidance was also raised by $2.78 at the midpoint, but $3.03 of acquisition-related R&D charges offset that improvement, leaving reported guidance at $35.50–$36.50.
Bottom Line: The GLP-1 story remains a volume machine. Lilly is deliberately giving up price to expand access, and demand is more than compensating. Foundayo adds a new format today, while retatrutide increasingly looks like the next major leg of the obesity franchise.
2026-08-07 20:03:44
Welcome to the Free edition of How They Make Money.
Over 300,000 subscribers turn to us for business and investment insights.
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This week, we’re visualizing more than 50 earnings reports across tech, healthcare, commerce, and everything in between.
Today at a glance:
🚖 Uber: AV Anxiety
🍄 Nintendo: Software Cushion
🛍️ Shopify: Deceleration Dodged
Uber’s Q2 revenue rose 12% Y/Y to $14.2 billion ($70 million miss), though an accounting shift from a merchant to an agency model in UK Mobility reduced reported growth by 8 points.
Gross Bookings grew 24% (or 22% constant currency) to a record $58.0 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter above 20%.
Trips rose 18% to 3.9 billion, driven by 16% growth in monthly users. The 2-point slowdown in trip growth came entirely from Brazil, Uber’s highest-volume market, where competition for two-wheel drivers constrained supply. US Mobility actually accelerated as insurance savings funded lower prices, with trip growth strongest in markets like San Francisco and Los Angeles where fares fell the most.
Mobility bookings grew 20%, while Delivery accelerated to 25%. That growth is increasingly flowing through to profits. Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $2.8 billion, with margin reaching 4.9% of Gross Bookings. Trailing-12-month free cash flow crossed $10 billion for the first time, giving Uber more room for buybacks, M&A, and AV investment.
Autonomy remains the valuation debate. Uber is now live with AVs in seven cities and still targets 15 by year-end. Management argues its advantage is not building the autonomous driver itself, but aggregating demand, dispatching vehicles, handling fleet operations, insurance, and regulators. In mature AV markets including San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Phoenix, Uber says its overall category share is actually higher than a year ago.'
Yet the valuation already reflects plenty of AV anxiety. At roughly 10x 2027 adjusted EBITDA, Uber trades at a modest multiple for a business still growing bookings above 20%. The market is clearly pricing in some future erosion of Uber’s economics.
Uber guided Q3 Gross Bookings to $58.25–$60.25 billion, implying 18–22% constant-currency growth, while EPS guidance of $0.84–$0.88 was roughly in line.
Bottom Line: Uber’s core business keeps getting stronger and its Delivery Hero acquisition could deepen its flywheel. The market’s question has simply moved further out: how much of today’s economics does Uber retain once robotaxis scale?
Nintendo Q1 revenue (June quarter) fell 10% Y/Y to ¥518 billion (~$3.3 billion), but still beat expectations, while operating profit surged 151% to ¥143 billion, nearly double consensus. Net income rose 54% to ¥147 billion. The catch was that roughly $300 million of refunded US tariffs reduced cost of sales, providing a large one-time boost to profitability.
Switch 2 sold 3.8 million consoles, down 34% against last year’s launch quarter but already 23% of Nintendo’s 16.5 million FY27 target. It now has an installed base of 23.7 million units globally. That compares to 17.8 million units sold by the original Switch a year after launch.
The big surprise was that the original Switch software sales jumped 39% to 34 million units, versus just 9.5 million Switch 2 games. Tomodachi Life: Living the Dream sold 7.9 million units and Pokémon Pokopia 1.3 million, showing that backward compatibility is keeping the 150M+ Switch ecosystem economically relevant even as hardware migrates. Digital sales nearly doubled to ¥133 billion and reached 62% of software revenue.
IP-related revenue more than doubled to ¥35 billion, helped by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which has already passed $1 billion at the global box office. That higher-margin software and IP mix helped gross margin jump 22 points to 54%, although the tariff refund materially amplified the improvement.
Bottom Line: Nintendo left FY27 guidance unchanged at 16.5 million Switch 2 consoles, 60 million Switch 2 games, ¥2.05 trillion of revenue, and ¥370 billion of operating profit. The real test still starts in September, when a price hike takes the Switch 2 to $500 heading into the holiday season.
Shopify’s Q2 revenue jumped 34% Y/Y to $3.6 billion ($140 million beat), while GMV grew 32% to $115.6 billion. Free cash flow reached $654 million at an 18% margin, up from 15% last quarter. Shares surged as the recent deceleration scare proved premature.
Growth remained broad across merchant sizes, geographies, and channels. Shopify Payments penetration reached 68% of GMV (+3pp Y/Y), while Shop Pay has now processed more than $400 billion in GMV since launch.
AI commerce is also becoming more tangible. AI-driven traffic and orders to Shopify stores both tripled Y/Y, with AI-attributed orders converting at roughly twice the rate when agents use Shopify’s structured Catalog rather than scraped web data. Importantly, 75% of AI-attributed orders came from outside Shopify’s top 100 categories, suggesting AI discovery disproportionately benefits smaller merchants.
Shopify guided Q3 revenue growth to the low-30s%, well above the ~27% consensus and implying a sixth consecutive quarter above 30%. Free cash flow margin should also improve to the ‘high teens’ to ‘low 20s.’
Bottom Line: Q1 raised the question of whether Shopify was finally slowing. Q2 answered it decisively. GMV and revenue remain above 30%, margins are expanding, and AI is increasingly looking like a distribution tailwind rather than the disruption risk investors feared.
Next up: Saturday’s massive PRO edition, with over 40 companies visualized, including Eli Lilly, AppLovin, Sony, Airbnb, Spotify, and more.
That’s it for today!
Stay healthy and invest on!
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Disclosure: I am long SHOP and UBER in App Economy Portfolio. I share my ratings (BUY, SELL, or HOLD) with members.
Author's Note (Bertrand here 👋🏼): The views and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely my own and should not be considered financial advice or any other organization's views.
2026-08-05 06:51:05
Welcome to the Premium edition of How They Make Money.
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This week, we’ll visualize more than 50 reports ranging from Airbnb to Zillow.
Today’s batch captures the mood of earnings season pretty well, with huge AI ambition, rising capital intensity, and a few quieter stories improving underneath.
Today at a glance:
🕵️ Palantir: Sovereign AI
🚀 SpaceX: Growth Meets the Bill
↗️ AMD: Data Center Takes Over
🛵 Grab: The Overhang Shrinks
Palantir Q2 revenue jumped 93% Y/Y to $1.94 billion ($130 million beat), marking the 12th consecutive quarter of acceleration. Adjusted EPS of $0.41 beat by $0.06. The Rule of 40 score climbed again to 155, with adjusted free cash flow reaching $1.22 billion at a 63% margin.
US revenue keeps pulling away.
💼 US Commercial: $764 million (+149% Y/Y, +28% Q/Q).
🪖 US Government: $809 million (+90% Y/Y, +18% Q/Q).
Total US revenue reached $1.57 billion, up 115% Y/Y and now representing 81% of Palantir’s business. International revenue grew a much slower 33% to $363 million, with CEO Alex Karp again dismissive of Europe: “The growth sucks.”
The pipeline behind the print looks even more bullish. Palantir closed 220 deals worth at least $1 million, including 73 above $10 million.
TCV (Total Contract Value): The total value of contracts signed during the quarter reached a record $2.13 billion in US Commercial, up 153% Y/Y.
RDV (Remaining Deal Value): Contracted revenue not yet recognized climbed 124% Y/Y (and a staggering 27% Q/Q) to $6.24 billion in US Commercial, giving Palantir an increasingly large backlog behind future growth.
Palantir’s new framing is “sovereign AI.” Management argues customers increasingly want AI without handing proprietary data, workflows, or competitive intelligence to frontier model providers. AIP (Palantir’s AI Platform) sits between companies and the models, letting customers swap LLMs while keeping their data and operational logic under their own control. Karp put it more bluntly: customers should not become “vassal states of the language labs.”
We discussed last quarter that tokens are the new coal. Models and tokens are becoming cheaper commodities. Palantir wants to own the governed operational layer where companies turn them into actual work.
Palantir raised FY26 revenue guidance by roughly $500 million to $8.15–$8.16 billion, implying 82% growth, versus 71% expected just three months ago. US Commercial is now expected to grow at least 134% to more than $3.42 billion. Adjusted free cash flow guidance increased to ~$4.6 billion (from ~$4.3 billion previously).
Bottom Line: The fundamental story somehow keeps getting stronger. Revenue growth accelerated, US Commercial is now 39% of the top line, and free cash flow margins have crossed 60%. The valuation is still extreme at nearly 80x FY26 EBITDA, but Palantir is doing something equally extreme: accelerating above 90% revenue growth at nearly $8 billion of annual revenue while simultaneously expanding margins.
SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company showed why investors are excited about the business and why the valuation remains difficult to digest.
2026-08-02 22:01:22
Welcome to the Premium edition of How They Make Money.
🔥 The July report is here!
All the key earnings visuals from the past month in one place.
✔️ Cut through the noise with clear, concise financial snapshots.
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![Screen Recording 2026-07-31 at 1.11.05 PM.mov [video-to-gif output image]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/%24s_!xi2q!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc277fa3f-21af-4980-b6d3-2972b35a07a8_800x448.gif "Screen Recording 2026-07-31 at 1.11.05 PM.mov [video-to-gif output image]")
Here’s a sneak peek of the 100+ companies included. 👀
☁️ Mega-Caps: Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla.
🧩 Semis: TSMC, ASML, Samsung, SKH, Intel, KLA, Qualcomm.
💊 Healthcare: J&J, UnitedHealth, Abbott, Intuitive Surgical.
🏦 Banks: JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Schwab.
🍿 Entertainment: Netflix, Comcast, Roblox, Live Nation.
💰 Wealth: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock.
💻 Software: IBM, SAP, ServiceNow, Fortinet, AppFolio.
☕ Restaurants: Starbucks, Chipotle, Domino’s, YUM!
✈️ Airlines: American, Delta, Southwest, United.
📡 Telecom: AT&T, T-Mobile, Comcast, Verizon.
💳 Payments: Amex, Visa, Mastercard, PayPal.
🛡️ Defense: Boeing, Airbus, Lockheed Martin.
🇫🇷 Luxury: LVMH, Hermès, Kering, L’Oréal.
🧬 Pharma: AbbVie, Sanofi, AstraZeneca.
🔬 Equipment: ASML, Lam Research.
🥤 Beverages: Coca-Cola, PepsiCo.
🚗 Autos: Rivian, GM, Ford, Ferrari.
📈 Brokers: SoFi, Robinhood.
🏨 Travel: Hilton.
Plus Reddit, Mondelez, Hershey, UPS, P&G, GE Vernova, Tilray, and more.
2026-08-01 22:02:56
Welcome to the Saturday PRO edition of How They Make Money.
Over 300,000 subscribers turn to us for business and investment insights.
In case you missed it:
📊 Monthly reports: 200+ companies visualized.
📩 Tuesday articles: Exclusive deep dives and insights.
📚 Access to our archive: Hundreds of business breakdowns.
📩 Saturday PRO reports: Timely insights on the latest earnings.
Today at a glance:
📱Apple: Ternus Handoff
🕶️ Meta: AI Bill Comes Due
📱 Samsung: Records Meet A Rout
💳 Visa: Volume Accelerates
💳 Mastercard: The Crack Didn't Widen
⏳ AbbVie: Growth Engines Hold
🧠 Lam Research: The Ramp Steepens
🥤 Coca-Cola: Volume Carries The Quarter
🧴 P&G: Iran Cost Bites
📱 Arm: Data Center Offsets Phones
🔬 KLA: 2027 Gets Bigger
🧬 AstraZeneca: Pipeline On Trial
🛩️ Airbus: The Ramp Finally Shows
📲 Qualcomm: Diversification On Trial
🛩️ Boeing: Cash Turns Positive
☕️ Starbucks: Measurable Momentum
🔒 Fortinet: The Surge Extends
📦 UPS: The Reset Lands
💡 Cadence: AI Demand Compounds
🪶 Robinhood: Firing On All Cylinders
🍪 Mondelez: North America Turns
🏨 Hilton: Mid-Scale Rebounds
🏎️ Ferrari: Scarcity Pays
🚙 Ford: Trucks Cover The Damage
💳 PayPal: The $60 Question
📈 Coinbase: Winning a Smaller Market
🎤 Live Nation: World Tour Expands
🌯 Chipotle: Momentum Meets A Wobble
🌮 Yum! Brands: Pizza Hut Heads Out
🍫 Hershey: Price Over Volume
👾 Roblox: Monetization Trade-Off
👽 Reddit: Monetization Outruns Users
⚡ Rivian: R2 Hits the Road
🏦 SoFi: Records Meet A Shrug
🦷 Align: Scanners Down
🩺 Teladoc: The BetterHelp Pivot
Apple’s Q3 revenue rose 16% Y/Y to $109.4 billion ($0.5 billion beat), while EPS reached $2.02 ($0.13 beat). Tariff refunds contributed $0.11 to EPS, but underlying results still came in ahead of expectations. These were June quarter records, yet shares fell about 6% after earnings.
iPhone revenue grew 22% to a record $54.3 billion.
Mac jumped 29% to a record $10.4 billion.
China rebounded 22% to $18.8 billion.
Services slowed to 12% growth, reaching $30.7 billion.
This was Tim Cook’s final earnings call before John Ternus takes over in September. He leaves Apple with a good problem to have: the company cannot make enough devices.
Cook said unexpectedly strong iPhone and Mac demand exhausted Apple’s flexibility to secure more advanced chips. These constraints primarily affected Mac this quarter and will broaden to iPhone, Mac, and iPad in the September quarter. Apple still guided revenue growth to 9%–11%, with iPhone expected to grow in the mid-teens, but the outlook came in below consensus.
Memory is becoming the larger margin problem. Cook described the market as a “hundred-year flood,” with rapidly rising prices already forcing Apple to increase some Mac and iPad prices. Excluding tariff benefits, gross margin declined sequentially, and Apple expects another step down in Q4 as cheaper inventory runs out.
Meanwhile, R&D spending rose 32% Y/Y to $11.7 billion as Apple accelerated its AI investment. Cook also suggested heavy Siri users could eventually be pushed toward more expensive iCloud+ plans, offering an early glimpse of how Apple might monetize its AI overhaul.
Ternus inherits one of Apple’s strongest product cycles in years, but also a supply chain that cannot fully support it and a margin structure increasingly exposed to memory inflation. The next iPhone cycle must prove Apple can manage both pressures while convincing customers that its AI catch-up is finally real.
Meta’s Q2 revenue rose 28% Y/Y to $60.8 billion ($0.5 billion beat). GAAP EPS fell 13% to $6.18, but the quarter included $2.4 billion in legal charges related to youth-safety litigation and $1.2 billion in severance costs. Excluding those items, operating income would have risen 9% rather than declined 8%. Despite the underlying beat, shares fell as much as 10%.
The selloff came down to two things:
Free cash flow nearly disappeared. Meta generated $31.9 billion in operating cash flow but spent $31.1 billion on capex and finance leases, leaving just $784 million in free cash flow, down 91% Y/Y. It also issued $24.9 billion of debt and repurchased no stock. Meta can afford the buildout. But for the first time, AI spending has effectively consumed the quarter’s free cash flow, halted buybacks, and pushed the company into the debt market.
The CapEx floor moved higher again. Meta narrowed its FY26 outlook to $130–$145 billion from $125–$145 billion, raising the bottom end for the second consecutive quarter. Its new 1 GW El Paso data center venture shows how it plans to fund the next stage: BlackRock will own 80%, while Meta retains 20% and leases the entire campus. The structure reduces the upfront cash burden without reducing Meta’s long-term commitment.
The irony is that AI is already paying off inside the ad business. Advertising revenue grew 27% Y/Y as impressions increased 14% and average price per ad rose 12%. Meta’s latest models generated an 8% increase in ad clicks and a 16% uplift in Facebook conversions, while Advantage+ products surpassed a $75 billion annual revenue run rate. AI is already producing measurable returns inside the existing business.
Family DAP reached 3.60 billion, Instagram crossed two billion daily users, and Threads surpassed 500 million monthly users. WhatsApp paid messaging and subscriptions also pushed Family of Apps ‘other’ revenue above $1 billion for the first time.
Zuck also offered a more concrete return path than last quarter. Beyond improving ads and engagement, Meta may sell paid model access and lease excess computing capacity. He said outside buyers have offered a “meaningful premium” to Meta’s cost, though building a real cloud business will require distribution and software capabilities Meta does not yet have.
Reality Labs lost another $4.6 billion, while revenue rose 16% on stronger AI-glasses sales.
Meta guided Q3 revenue to $61–$64 billion, with the midpoint below consensus, and raised FY26 expenses to $165–$169 billion. Meta is already earning more from ads, and it now has plausible ways to monetize models and excess compute. The problem is that the spending is arriving all at once, while some of the new revenue streams will take time to meaningfully contribute.