2026-05-14 20:15:09
For the Washington Post, Jeremy B. Merrill and Leslie Shapiro visualized users who won and lost money on Polymarket. The odds aren’t great.
A lot of users aren’t that good at predicting the future.
They’re losing money at roughly the same rate as online gamblers betting on sports and other real-life events at traditionally sportsbooks, according to the U.K. gambling regulator’s analysis of 2024 data.
This is based on research by Akey et al.
There was a small percentage of big winners, but of those, many appeared to be professionals placing thousands or even millions of bets in an automated way. Then there are those who probably have insider knowledge.
Maybe put your cash in a savings account. If you’re really after favorable odds, stick it under the mattress. It just won’t be as fun as losing money incrementally.
Tags: loss, money, Polymarket, prediction market, Washington Post
2026-05-14 20:01:14
This week, we refresh an old chart with new data, interaction, and improved design.
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2026-05-13 18:03:42
Science profiled Hany Farid, a researcher in digital forensics at the University of California, Berkeley.
An interesting guide in the middle shows how simple geometry can expose a fake image. For example, in the generated image above, the lines connecting the figure to the reflection of the figure should converge at the same point. The lines are off, so the image is fake.
This lesson should be useful for about a week. Maybe a month? It seems that in the not too distant future, we won’t be able to find things that are off with just our eyes. So I’m glad there are people like Farid aiming to make it more difficult to fake reality.
Tags: generative, geometry, Science Magazine
2026-05-13 07:10:52
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics published cost estimates for April 2026. If you’ve bought anything over the past month, you’ve likely noticed a rise. For the Washington Post, Rachel Lerman and Federica Cocco charted the rising cost of groceries this year, before and after the war with Iran.
Prices were already going up because of tariffs (remember those?), but the war is pushing costs up harder. Soon, we will pay for goods with cherry tomatoes.
Tags: grocery, inflation, war, Washington Post
2026-05-12 17:26:30
The percentage of U.S. men in the workforce has been declining for decades, with a sharper shift the past few years. For the Washington Post, Lauren Kaori Gurley and Federica Cocco report.
“It’s not all retirement and education. … There are guys just dropping off the planet. They’re not looking after their kids. They’re not in school. They’re not in the labor force,” said Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics at the University of Michigan. “Across the board when we look at men, we see challenges that they face that leave too many men disconnected.”
Since 2006, the percentage is down six percentage points, which is maybe a bit less than you would think after looking at the line chart above. The reasons of course are multifaceted, but if I were to guess, I’d say more women in workforce has and will continue to change dynamics at work and at home.
Tags: men, Washington Post, work
2026-05-11 15:53:35
Raymond Zhong and Harry Stevens, for the New York Times, go with a sketch aesthetic to describe the effects of El Niño. Some areas are wetter and others are drier. Although it’s still difficult to forecast the full range geographically and the magnitude of the effects. Because wind.
Tags: climate change, El Niño, New York Times
