2026-01-29 04:23:44
Over the past 152 years, the S&P 500 has delivered a wide spectrum of annual returns, ranging from catastrophic downturns like 1931’s -44%, to massive bull runs such as 1954’s +45%. Using data from TradingView, the visualization above charts every calendar-year performance of the S&P 500 since 1871.
As we enter 2026, Wall Street optimism is running high. All 21 strategists surveyed foresee gains for the S&P 500 this year, marking a rare consensus among analysts.
Here’s the historical distribution of S&P 500 annual returns, compiled by TradingView:
| Annual S&P 500 Return Range | Number of Years in Range | Share of Years in Range |
|---|---|---|
| 40 to 50% or more | 3 | 2.0% |
| 30 to 40% | 9 | 5.3% |
| 20 to 30% | 22 | 14.6% |
| 10 to 20% | 34 | 22.5% |
| 0 to 10% | 30 | 19.9% |
| 0 to -10% | 25 | 16.6% |
| -10 to -20% | 18 | 11.9% |
| -20 to -30% | 7 | 4.6% |
| -30 to -40% | 3 | 2.0% |
| -40 to -50% or more | 1 | 0.7% |
Roughly 3 in 4 years have seen positive returns, with the most common range being between 10% and 20%. Only a handful of years (just 2%) delivered returns above 40%, underscoring how rare years like 1954 or 1995 truly are. On the downside, only a small cluster of years produced losses beyond -20%.
For the S&P 500 in 2026, analysts are forecasting an average return of 12%, citing continued earnings growth and resilient consumer demand.
Multiple investment firms, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, expect momentum in tech, AI, and small-cap sectors to drive performance this year. As noted in our global stock markets wrap for 2025, U.S. equities outperformed many international peers, bolstering investor confidence further.
If the forecasted 12% gain materializes, 2026 would fall within the historically common 10–20% return range. That would place it alongside years like 2016 and 2010, which would be solid, unspectacular, and consistent with long-term averages.
Based on analyst forecasts compiled in Visual Capitalist’s 2026 Predictions Database exclusively on VC+, the consensus outlook for U.S. equities leans constructively bullish, but more selective.
Key themes expected to shape 2026:
Put simply, 2026 is shaping up to look less like a speculative surge, and more like a market digesting gains while still moving higher.
But as history shows, market behavior can be unpredictable. Whether 2026 joins the ranks of great bull years, or surprises to the downside, remains to be seen.
2026-01-29 00:44:00
Tax rules rarely sit still, so 2026 could bring meaningful planning ripple effects. As a result, many households may want a fresh look at deductions, transfers, and savings.
This graphic, in partnership with New York Life Investments, shows three key tax-law shifts for U.S. investors using data from the Internal Revenue Service.
For households that itemize deductions, the SALT deduction cap jumps from $10,000 to $40,000.
Consequently, in an illustrative example of a married couple filing jointly in the 32% bracket with $40,000 in state and local taxes, federal tax savings rise from $3,200 to $12,800.
Here is a table that shows the old and new SALT caps and the illustrative federal tax savings.
| Deduction | Federal Tax Saved |
|---|---|
| Old SALT cap ($10,000) | $3,200 |
| New SALT cap ($40,000) | $12,800 |
Based on a married couple filing jointly, in the 32% tax bracket, with income below the SALT phase-out and $40,000 in state and local taxes.
However, the benefit can swing widely by state. New York ($7,092) leads the nation, while South Dakota ($1,033) trails, with big coastal states also near the top.
Meanwhile, state tax differences can compound over time for investors.
In 2026, the federal lifetime estate and gift tax exemption rises from $13.99M to $15.00M per person. That added headroom can help reduce forced asset sales during wealth transfers.
Here is a table showing the result if someone invested the roughly $1M difference at a 10% annual return, which is the average since 1957.
| Year | Total Savings (Millions of U.S. Dollars) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 1.6 |
| 6 | 1.8 |
| 7 | 2.0 |
| 8 | 2.2 |
| 9 | 2.4 |
| 10 | 2.6 |
Average annual return on the S&P 500 since 1957. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Although results will vary, and markets don’t move in straight lines, it could approach $2.6M after a decade.
The IRS raised the 401(k) elective deferral limit to $24,500 for 2026, up from $23,500 in 2025. At the same time, the age-50 catch-up limit increases from $7,500 to $8,000.
| Year | Base contribution | Catch-up contribution |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $23,500.00 | $7,500.00 |
| 2026 | $24,500.00 | $8,000.00 |
Amounts shown are the IRS maximum employee deferral limits for 401(k), 403(b), and governmental 457 plans for individuals age 50 and older. Beginning in 2026, the $8,000 catch-up portion must be made with money that has already been taxed for workers whose prior year wages from that employer exceed the income threshold in the law, approximately $150,000 for 2026 contributions. Under a change made in SECURE 2.0, a higher catch-up contribution limit applies for employees aged 60-63 if their plan allows. The catch-up would be $11,250 (totaling $35,750).
However, the SECURE 2.0 retirement package adds a twist: certain higher earners must make catch-up contributions after-tax as Roth. Because of that, investors may rethink how they balance pre-tax and Roth savings.
Taken together, these Key Tax Changes can free up after-tax cash flow and broaden long-term options. Yet each outcome depends on income levels, itemizing behavior, plan rules, and macro trends such as interest rate changes.
Explore more insights from New York Life Investments
As AI adoption accelerates, investors are all asking the same question: where are the biggest opportunities?
The U.S. dollar is under pressure—but what’s driving the decline? Investors need to know.
Active ETFs are funds managed with the goal of beating the market—and they’re rapidly reshaping the asset management industry.
Maintaining a balanced perspective on trade is crucial. Which countries does the U.S. have the largest trade deficits and surpluses with?
With the second term of Trump underway, all eyes are on the markets to see how they react. Which sectors and regions that thrived last time?
How did equities, fixed income, and real estate (and their underlying sectors) perform in the U.S. throughout 2024?
The U.S. population is aging. By 2070, the number of people over 65 will outnumber children. How can investors prepare?
After the president takes office, how have the market and the economy performed under Democrats vs Republicans?
The Magnificent Seven stocks all outperformed the S&P 500 in 2023. However, it’s crucial to remember that diversifying a portfolio at both the company level and…
How have previous cycles of interest rate cuts in the U.S. impacted the economy and financial markets?
Small- and mid-cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps. What are the opportunities and risks to consider?
Assets in money market funds are at all-time highs. But as investors stockpile cash, are they missing out on today’s stock market rally?
Market volatility is often considered a gauge for investor fear. How did investors react as the economic climate evolved in 2023?
Valuations are much lower than they were during the dot-com bubble, but what else sets the current AI enthusiasm apart?
Learn how tax-loss harvesting works by using capital losses to offset capital gains, potentially reducing your tax bill.
The performance of the S&P 500 has been strong so far in 2023. But what is fueling these stock market returns?
Will the Federal Reserve achieve a soft landing? Here are key factors that play an important role in the direction of the U.S. economy.
International stocks are trading at 20-year lows relative to U.S. stocks, which could present attractive buying opportunities for investors.
From sector performance to market recoveries, test your knowledge about investing during a recession with this interactive quiz.
Amid uncertain economic times, a new allocation for the 60/40 portfolio may help investors target higher risk-adjusted returns.
How can investors prepare for a market downturn? What goes into a recession investment strategy? We look at three sectors to consider.
What factors impact the bond market? Here’s how current interest rates, bond returns, and market volatility compare in a historical context.
Learn five tax tips that may help maximize the after-tax value of your investments, including which assets may be best for certain accounts.
What was on investors’ minds in 2022? Discover the top Google searches and how the dominant trends played out in portfolios.
2026-01-28 23:25:54
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
While the national average share of remote workers sits at 15%, some cities far exceed that level.
This map ranks U.S. cities by the share of workers who work remotely, revealing where work-from-home arrangements are still common. The data for this visualization comes from SmartAsset.
Frisco, Texas ranks first, with 34% of its workforce working remotely. Located in the Dallas–Fort Worth metro area, Frisco benefits from proximity to major corporate employers such as Toyota, American Airlines, and AT&T. Many residents work in high-paying professional and technology roles that are well-suited to remote or hybrid work.
| Rank | City | Remote workers (%) | Total remote workers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frisco, Texas | 34% | 42K |
| 2 | Berkeley, California | 32% | 18K |
| 3 | Cary, North Carolina | 31% | 29K |
| 4 | Boulder, Colorado | 30% | 17K |
| 5 | Scottsdale, Arizona | 28% | 36K |
| 6 | Arlington, Virginia | 27% | 39K |
| 7 | McKinney, Texas | 27% | 33K |
| 8 | Fishers, Indiana | 27% | 15K |
| 9 | Boca Raton, Florida | 26% | 14K |
| 10 | Carlsbad, California | 26% | 14K |
| 11 | Atlanta, Georgia | 26% | 74K |
| 12 | Naperville, Illinois | 26% | 20K |
| 13 | Allen, Texas | 26% | 16K |
| 14 | Sandy Springs, Georgia | 25% | 16K |
| 15 | Pasadena, California | 25% | 18K |
| 16 | Charlotte, North Carolina | 25% | 130K |
| 17 | Austin, Texas | 25% | 148K |
| 18 | Denver, Colorado | 25% | 106K |
| 19 | Alexandria, Virginia | 25% | 25K |
| 20 | Portland, Oregon | 25% | 89K |
Other Texas cities also rank highly, including McKinney, Allen, and Austin. These cities combine strong job markets with newer housing stock and family-friendly suburbs, making them attractive destinations for remote professionals.
Several college towns and tech-focused cities appear near the top of the ranking. Berkeley, California and Boulder, Colorado both have remote work shares above 30%. These cities have highly educated populations and strong ties to technology, research, and professional services.
Cities like Cary, North Carolina and Naperville, Illinois also stand out as affluent suburbs with large numbers of knowledge workers. In these places, remote work is often an extension of pre-existing white-collar employment patterns.
Large metropolitan areas such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Austin, Denver, and Portland also appear in the top 20. While their remote work shares are lower than those of leading smaller cities on the list, they account for far more remote workers in absolute terms. For example, Austin and Charlotte each have well over 100,000 remote workers.
If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Distribution of Income in America (2024 vs 1974) on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.
2026-01-28 21:02:18
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
The U.S. job market is undergoing a major shift as demographic changes, technological adoption, and evolving consumer needs reshape labor demand.
Over the next decade, millions of new roles are expected to emerge, with growth concentrated in healthcare, digital occupations, and essential services.
This visualization ranks the fastest growing jobs in the U.S. by projected number of new positions added through 2034. The data for this visualization comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Healthcare-related occupations dominate the top of the rankings, driven largely by an aging U.S. population and rising demand for long-term care. Home health and personal care aides alone are expected to add nearly 740,000 new jobs by 2034. That represents about 14% of all projected net job growth.
| Occupation | New jobs by 2034F | Median annual wage | Employment change (2024–34) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home health and personal care aides | 739,800 | $34,900 | 17.0% |
| Software developers | 267,700 | $133,080 | 15.8% |
| Stockers and order fillers | 235,000 | $37,090 | 8.5% |
| Fast food and counter workers | 233,200 | $30,480 | 6.1% |
| Cooks, restaurant | 217,000 | $36,830 | 14.9% |
| Registered nurses | 166,100 | $93,600 | 4.9% |
| General and operations managers | 164,000 | $102,950 | 4.4% |
| Medical and health services managers | 142,900 | $117,960 | 23.2% |
| Financial managers | 128,800 | $161,700 | 14.8% |
| Nurse practitioners | 128,400 | $129,210 | 40.1% |
| Construction laborers | 106,500 | $46,730 | 7.3% |
| Computer and information systems managers | 101,600 | $171,200 | 15.2% |
| Medical assistants | 101,200 | $44,200 | 12.5% |
| Management analysts | 94,500 | $101,190 | 8.8% |
| Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers | 89,300 | $57,440 | 4.0% |
| Data scientists | 82,500 | $112,590 | 33.5% |
| Substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors | 81,000 | $59,190 | 16.8% |
| Light truck drivers | 78,900 | $44,140 | 7.3% |
| Electricians | 77,400 | $62,350 | 9.5% |
| First-line supervisors of food preparation and serving workers | 73,000 | $42,010 | 6.0% |
| Accountants and auditors | 72,800 | $81,680 | 4.6% |
| Industrial machinery mechanics | 70,700 | $63,760 | 16.1% |
| Market research analysts and marketing specialists | 63,000 | $76,950 | 6.7% |
| Maintenance and repair workers, general | 62,400 | $48,620 | 3.8% |
| Managers, all other | 59,800 | $136,550 | 4.5% |
| Project management specialists | 58,700 | $100,750 | 5.6% |
| Human resources specialists | 58,400 | $72,910 | 6.2% |
| Information security analysts | 52,100 | $124,910 | 28.5% |
| Health specialties teachers, postsecondary | 50,100 | $105,620 | 17.3% |
| First-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers | 49,000 | $78,690 | 5.3% |
| Total, all occupations | 5,211,800 | $49,500 | 3.1% |
Other fast-growing healthcare roles include registered nurses, nurse practitioners, medical assistants, and medical and health services managers. While wages vary widely across these positions, the sector as a whole offers both high-volume job creation and strong long-term demand.
Technology-focused roles remain among the fastest growing and highest paying jobs in the U.S. Software developers are projected to add more than 267,000 new positions, with a median annual wage exceeding $130,000. Data scientists and information security analysts also rank high, reflecting continued investment in data infrastructure and cybersecurity.
Management roles tied to technology, such as computer and information systems managers, show strong growth as well.
Beyond healthcare and tech, many of the fastest growing jobs are crucial service roles. Stockers and order fillers, fast food workers, cooks, and truck drivers are all projected to see significant increases in employment. Growth in e-commerce, logistics, and food services continues to drive demand for these occupations.
While median wages in these roles are generally lower than in tech or management, they collectively make up a substantial portion of total job creation.
If you enjoyed today’s post, check out What the Top 1% Richest Americans Pay in Taxes Across the U.S. on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.
2026-01-28 02:44:07
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Household income in the United States varies widely depending on how many people live under one roof.
Larger households often have multiple earners, while smaller households rely on a single income, shaping large gaps in median household earnings. However, on a per-person basis, smaller households are relatively better off.
This infographic shows median household income by household size in the United States, using data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) 2024 1-Year Estimates.
Median household income generally rises as household size increases, reflecting the growing likelihood of multiple earners contributing to total income.
The table below shows median household income by household size in the U.S.:
| Household size | Median household income |
|---|---|
| One person | $42,124 |
| Two people | $90,465 |
| Three people | $107,126 |
| Four people | $124,990 |
| Five people | $119,003 |
| Six people | $118,348 |
| Seven or more people | $126,072 |
Single-person households report a median income of $42,124, highlighting the financial constraints faced by individuals relying on a single paycheck. Two-person households more than double that figure, earning a median of $90,465.
Income continues to rise for three- and four-person households, reaching $124,990 for four-person households. This group often includes dual-income families with children, combining higher earnings with shared living costs.
Interestingly, median income levels off, and even dips slightly, for households with five or six people. Five-person households earn a median of $119,003, while six-person households earn $118,348.
These larger households may include more dependents relative to earners, such as children or extended family members, which can limit earning potential. Meanwhile, households with seven or more people show a slight rebound, reporting a median income of $126,072.
Higher median incomes don’t always mean higher living standards. While larger households tend to earn more in absolute terms, their incomes per person are relatively lower.
For instance, two-person households make the most median income per person at over $45,000, and this figure continues declining as households get larger. In seven-person homes, the median household income of $126,072 translates to just over $18,000 per person.
Larger families also face higher housing, food, healthcare, and childcare costs, which can offset absolute income gains. With these financial constraints in mind, the average U.S. household has evolved significantly—as of 2023, around 58% of U.S. households consisted of married or single adults with no children.
If you found this breakdown useful, explore more income and cost-of-living insights on Voronoi, including The Income a Family Needs to be Middle Class in Every State.
2026-01-27 23:27:24
See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.
Over the past two decades, the world has become increasingly research-intensive, with global R&D spending reaching nearly $3 trillion in 2024, up from less than $1 trillion in the year 2000.
This visualization ranks the world’s fastest-growing R&D spenders based on the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of gross R&D expenditure between 2000 and 2024, using data from the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). All figures are in constant 2015 purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted U.S. dollars.
China tops the ranking, with R&D spending growing at a 13.1% annual rate since 2000. Over this period, China’s gross expenditure on R&D surged from just $40.8 billion in 2000 to nearly $786 billion in 2024, accounting for 27% of the global total.
The table below shows the top 20 economies with the fastest growth in R&D spending, along with their R&D outlays in 2000 and 2024:
| Rank | Economy | CAGR (2000–2024) | R&D Spend 2000 (USD, PPP 2015 billions) |
R&D Spend 2024 (USD, PPP 2015 billions) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
 China |
13.1% | $40.8 | $785.9 |
| 2 |
 Saudi Arabia |
13.0% | $0.6 | $10.4 |
| 3 |
 Egypt |
11.8% | $1.1 | $16.4 |
| 4 |
 Indonesia |
11.3% | $0.8 | $10.6 |
| 5 |
 Cambodia |
10.4% | $0.0 | $0.1 |
| 6 |
 Thailand |
10.1% | $1.5 | $15.1 |
| 7 |
 Türkiye |
9.9% | $4.5 | $43.2 |
| 8 |
 Vietnam |
9.3% | $0.6 | $5.1 |
| 9 |
 Philippines |
8.6% | $0.5 | $3.5 |
| 10 |
 Malta |
8.6% | $0.0 | $0.2 |
| 11 |
 Morocco |
8.1% | $0.3 | $2.2 |
| 12 |
 Namibia |
8.1% | $0.0 | $0.2 |
| 13 |
 Estonia |
7.8% | $0.1 | $0.9 |
| 14 |
 Cyprus |
7.8% | $0.1 | $0.3 |
| 15 |
 Malaysia |
7.6% | $1.8 | $10.2 |
| 16 |
 Poland |
7.5% | $3.9 | $21.9 |
| 17 |
 Republic of Korea |
7.5% | $22.4 | $126.4 |
| 18 |
 Tajikistan |
7.3% | $0.0 | $0.0 |
| 19 |
 Uruguay |
7.2% | $0.1 | $0.5 |
| 20 |
 Burkina Faso |
6.8% | $0.0 | $0.1 |
China’s rapid R&D expansion has positioned it as a global innovation powerhouse. Since 2000, China has accounted for more than 36% of all patent applications worldwide, and it also leads in AI patent filings globally.
Saudi Arabia ranks second, with R&D spending growing at 13% annually since 2000, the fastest rate among all high-income countries. Egypt follows closely behind, with R&D expenditure rising at an annual rate of nearly 12% from 2000 to 2024.
Several emerging economies, such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, also rank among the fastest-growing R&D spenders, although their absolute spending remains relatively low.
Meanwhile, the U.S. (not on the list) is the world’s second-largest R&D spender in absolute terms, but American R&D expenditure has grown at just 3.3% annually from 2000 to 2024, placing it 69th worldwide.
Sustained investment in non-defense R&D positively correlates with higher total factor productivity over the long term, delivering spillover benefits in economic efficiency, manufacturing, and technological leadership.
Furthermore, countries that invest effectively in research are better positioned to develop advanced industries and attract skilled talent, especially as global competition revolves more around innovation than low-cost labor alone.
If you found this infographic interesting, explore more innovation and technology insights on Voronoi, including Who’s Winning the AI Patent Race?.
