Visual CapitalistModify

2026-01-21 08:43:40

Global GDP is expected to grow approximately 3.1% in 2026, but that headline figure masks rising strain beneath the surface.

Inflation is cooling in some regions while remaining persistent in others. Governments have less fiscal and monetary flexibility to respond to shocks than they did several years ago, and the long-standing framework of open trade and integrated supply chains is being fundamentally restructured.

Drawing on 2,000+ expert predictions, the 2026 Global Forecast Report identifies three economic risks that warrant close attention this year.

① Fragmentation of the Global Economic Order

For decades, companies constructed supply chains primarily to minimize cost. That logic is now being supplanted by a number of factors:

• Geopolitical risk management
• Tariffs and sanctions
• Shifting industrial policy such as “friend-shoring” arrangements

This shift represents a fundamental change in long-standing norms governing global trade.

Faced with a variety of pressures, supply chains are often optimizing for political safety rather than cost efficiency. New trade agreements are increasingly being negotiated outside traditional multilateral institutions, forming coalitions of the willing that strike bilateral or regional bargains rather than working through established frameworks.

At the same time, trade interventions have proliferated. The share of G20 imports covered by tariffs has seen the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring.

Tariffs are a commonly used tool of geoeconomic confrontation, which emerged as the top global risk for 2026, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report.

Existing agreements are also under strain: the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) faces growing uncertainty as political pressures mount in all three countries.

That said, new agreements continue to emerge and will further alter the trade landscape. The EU-Mercosur free trade agreement, after more than two decades of negotiations, appears finally close to ratification. Canada and China also forged a new EV-focused trade deal that will see levies on Chinese EVs from 100% to 6.1% for the first 49,000 vehicles imported each year.

Such developments suggest that trade will not collapse, but it faces a prolonged and awkward period of adaptation as the global economic order reconfigures around new political realities.

Expert Opinions: The Fragmenting Global Order

② Geopolitical Escalation Involving Major Powers

Armed conflict between major powers remains an evergreen risk that, when it materializes, can impose severe and lasting costs on the global economy.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine demonstrated this vividly: the war triggered energy price shocks across Europe, disrupted global food supplies, accelerated the fragmentation of trade networks, and forced governments to redirect hundreds of billions toward defense spending. The conflict persists into its fifth year with no clear resolution in sight, and the Council on Foreign Relations’ 2026 survey of experts rated the intensification of the Russia–Ukraine War as a high-likelihood, high-impact contingency.

The economic consequences extend far beyond the immediate theater of war: energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions for critical inputs, and the opportunity costs associated with increasing defense expenditures (NATO members are ramping to a 5% target of GDP for military spending). As well, the broader climate of uncertainty causes businesses to delay capital expenditures and investors to demand higher risk premiums.

Several potential flashpoints warrant monitoring in 2026.

• The Taiwan Strait remains a source of concern as China continues military, economic, and political pressure on Taiwan, a contingency that experts rate as having a roughly even chance of precipitating a severe crisis involving the United States and regional powers.
• The Middle East faces the prospect of renewed conflict between Iran and Israel as Tehran attempts to reconstitute its nuclear program and rebuild its regional proxy networks.
• Russia’s “gray-zone” provocations against NATO members, including cyberattacks, drone incursions, and infrastructure sabotage, have intensified and could escalate into direct confrontation.
• North Korea has risen to a top risk following its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile tests.
• In the Western Hemisphere, U.S. military operations targeting transnational criminal groups could escalate to direct action in Venezuela.

None of these scenarios are certain to materialize, but each represents a potential source of significant economic disruption. The key risk is that geopolitical tension does not need to produce open warfare to impose costs; sustained uncertainty alone functions as a drag on investment, trade, and growth.

Expert Opinions: Geopolitical Confrontation

③ Energy Market Volatility and Transition Failure

A widening gap between electricity demand and available supply is creating a structural constraint on economic growth. Artificial intelligence workloads, data centers, electric vehicles, and broader electrification initiatives are driving substantial increases in demand at precisely the moment when grids are contending with aging infrastructure, protracted permitting processes, and the complex economics of the energy transition.

The result is not merely an infrastructure challenge but a potential chokepoint for the industries and technologies that many economies are counting on to drive productivity gains in the years ahead.

The scale of the mismatch is considerable. U.S. electricity demand is projected to increase by 662 terawatt-hours by 2030, roughly equivalent to adding the combined output of Texas and California to the grid.

However, the infrastructure to meet that demand cannot be built quickly: transmission project backlogs exceed five years, natural gas turbines require three to four years for delivery, and nuclear plants take over a decade to construct. Data center vacancy rates have fallen to 1-2%, with new capacity 75-100% pre-leased years before it comes online. The timeline mismatch between surging demand and slow-moving supply creates a binding constraint that no amount of capital alone can solve.

The economic consequences flow through several channels:

• Electricity prices rise in regions where demand outstrips supply. Wholesale prices in areas near data center hubs are already up sharply compared to five years ago.
• Businesses that depend on reliable power face higher operating costs and may delay or relocate investments. Microsoft is restarting a mothballed reactor at Three Mile Island at roughly double the typical power contract price because no cheaper option is available. When one of the world’s largest companies cannot secure affordable baseload power, smaller firms face even starker choices.
• The AI boom that is supposed to drive productivity and growth may itself be constrained if the physical infrastructure cannot keep pace with computational ambitions. The energy transition and digital infrastructure buildout are running up against physical and regulatory constraints.

Expert Opinions: Risks in the Electricity Build-Out

The 2026 Global Forecast Report

These three risks are only part of a much broader picture.

The 2026 Global Forecast Report, presented by Inigo, looks at how economic, geopolitical, technological, and societal forces intersect, and where tensions are building.

This article highlights just a small selection of the insights in the report. The full analysis, along with additional visuals and supporting data, is available exclusively to VC+ members.

2026-01-21 01:48:56

How Billionaires Plan to Invest in 2026

See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Billionaires are entering 2026 with confidence. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation in some regions, and uneven global growth, the world’s wealthiest investors are not retreating to the sidelines.

This visualization highlights how billionaires expect to adjust their portfolios in 2026. It shows which asset classes they plan to increase, maintain, or reduce exposure to. The data for this visualization comes from the UBS Billionaire Survey 2025.

Private Markets Remain a Core Growth Bet

Private equity stands out as the most favored asset class. Nearly half of billionaires (49%) plan to increase exposure to direct private equity investments, while another 37% expect to boost allocations through private equity funds.

Private debt is also gaining traction, with one-third of respondents planning to increase exposure. Higher interest rates have made private credit more attractive, offering yield opportunities alongside tighter lending conditions in traditional banking.

Equities and Hedge Funds Signal Ongoing Risk Appetite

Public equities remain central to billionaire portfolios. Over 40% plan to increase exposure to both developed and emerging market equities, while the vast majority expect to at least maintain current allocations. Notably, very few respondents plan to reduce emerging market equity exposure, suggesting optimism around long-term growth in developing economies.

Hedge funds are another key beneficiary of this risk-on mindset. With 43% planning to increase exposure, billionaires appear to value hedge funds for their flexibility, diversification benefits, and ability to navigate volatile or sideways markets.

More defensive asset classes see fewer dramatic shifts. Most billionaires plan to keep allocations to infrastructure, real estate, gold, and fixed income largely unchanged. Cash levels are also expected to remain stable, with only 19% planning to increase exposure.

Commodities, art, and antiques attract the least enthusiasm for increased exposure.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Breaking Down America’s $13 Trillion ETF Market on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

2026-01-20 23:23:43

Ranked: How Median Salaries are Shifting by U.S. State

See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

Salaries across the United States continued to rise in 2024, but where you live still plays a major role in how much you earn.

While national wage growth has remained positive, the gap between the highest- and lowest-paying states remains wide. Regional economic structure, industry concentration, and cost of living all contribute to these differences.

This visualization ranks U.S. states by median income and shows how their positions changed from 2023 to 2024. The data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey and reflects median earnings for full-time, year-round civilian workers aged 16 and over.

While ACS earnings are adjusted for inflation within each survey year, the figures are not adjusted across years—meaning changes reflect nominal shifts rather than real wage growth.

The Highest-Paying States Remain on Top

The District of Columbia continues to lead the nation, with median income rising from $108,210 in 2023 to $109,707 in 2024.

Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maryland follow closely behind, all exceeding $100,000. These states benefit from high concentrations of government, professional services, healthcare, and technology jobs that tend to command higher wages.

Shifts Within the Top Tier

While most top-ranked states held their positions, there were some notable shifts.

Hawaii climbed into the top five in 2024, overtaking New Hampshire. Colorado also moved ahead of Utah.

At the lower end of the ranking, Mississippi, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Arkansas continue to report the lowest median incomes, despite some of the largest year-over-year increases.

Mississippi remains last, with median income rising to just over $59,000 in 2024. Many of these states have economies more heavily weighted toward lower-wage industries and face slower productivity growth.

Which States Failed to Keep Up With Inflation?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 2.9% in 2024. While the ACS figures shown above reflect nominal changes, comparing them against inflation helps illustrate changes in real purchasing power.

Using this benchmark, most states beat inflation, but a handful posted gains below 2.9% including D.C. (1.4%), North Dakota (1.8%), Vermont (1.9%), Virginia (2.4%), Nebraska (2.4%), and Minnesota (2.4%), which implies slight decreases in real buying power.

Meanwhile, Rhode Island actually saw a decline in nominal median wages, going from $84,972 in 2023 to $83,504 in 2024 (-1.7%).

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out U.S. States With the Longest Commutes on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

2026-01-20 21:02:01

Charted: Senior Populations of the World’s Largest Economies

See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

As populations age, growing senior populations are reshaping economic growth, healthcare systems, and public finances across the world’s largest economies.

This infographic compares the senior population (aged 65 and older) across the world’s top 30 economies by nominal GDP in 2025, using data from the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Which Major Economies are the Oldest?

Population aging varies dramatically across the world’s largest economies, reflecting differences in fertility rates, life expectancy, and stages of economic development.

The table below shows the share and total number of people aged 65 and older across the top global economies:

Economy Rank by GDP	Country	Share of Population Aged 65+	Senior Population
1	United States of America	18%	61,219,978
2	China	15%	211,346,250
3	Germany	24%	20,042,628
4	Japan	30%	37,192,611
5	India	7%	101,565,505
6	United Kingdom	20%	13,845,200
7	France	23%	15,758,841
8	Italy	25%	14,746,506
9	Russian Federation	18%	25,836,093
10	Canada	20%	8,257,720
11	Brazil	11%	23,319,843
12	Spain	22%	10,737,570
13	Mexico	9%	11,777,491
14	Republic of Korea	20%	10,350,213
15	Australia	18%	4,896,866
16	Türkiye	11%	9,407,053
17	Indonesia	8%	22,679,034
18	Netherlands	21%	3,778,790
19	Saudi Arabia	3%	1,059,008
20	Poland	21%	7,676,488
21	Switzerland	20%	1,806,820
22	Belgium	21%	2,494,137
23	Ireland	16%	860,841
24	Argentina	13%	5,940,501
25	Sweden	21%	2,219,639
26	Israel	13%	1,296,672
27	Singapore	14%	845,160
28	United Arab Emirates	2%	217,540
29	Austria	21%	1,927,481
30	Thailand	16%	11,466,882

Japan stands out as the world’s oldest major economy, with 30% of its population aged 65 and above, equivalent to more than 37 million seniors. Low fertility rates and long life expectancy have driven Japan’s demographic shift, creating major challenges for its workforce and pension system.

Besides Japan, Europe makes up nine of the top 10 countries with the highest share of seniors on the list. Germany and Italy follow closely, with seniors accounting for roughly one-quarter of their populations. Many European economies now face shrinking working-age populations, raising concerns over long-term economic sustainability.

Meanwhile, China has by far the largest senior population in absolute numbers at more than 211 million. Similarly, in India, seniors make up only 7% of the population, yet the country already has over 101 million people aged 65 or older due to its sheer population size.

Economies That Skew Younger

Some large economies remain relatively young. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the lowest shares of seniors, at just 3% and 2% respectively, because of large migrant workforces.

Emerging economies like Indonesia, Mexico, and Türkiye also maintain lower senior shares, although these figures are likely to rise over the coming decades as life expectancy increases and birth rates fall.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed today’s post, explore more demographics and population insights on Voronoi, including Every Country’s Median Age.

2026-01-20 07:48:24

How Greenland’s Rare Earth Reserves Compare Globally

See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

U.S. President Donald Trump has once again put Greenland at the center of global attention.

His renewed threat to assert U.S. control over the Arctic territory has drawn sharp reactions from European leaders and Denmark, of which Greenland is an autonomous territory within.

While the island’s strategic location is often cited, another underlying motivation is increasingly tied to its vast mineral potential. In particular, Greenland’s rare earth reserves have become a focal point in a world racing to secure critical resources.

This visualization compares rare earth mine production and reserves across countries, placing Greenland’s untapped resources in a global context. 

The data for this visualization comes from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as of 2024.

China’s Grip on Rare Earth Supply

China remains the backbone of the global rare earth market. In 2024, it produced roughly 270,000 metric tons, accounting for well over half of global output.

China also controls the largest reserves, estimated at 44 million metric tons. This combination of scale and integration gives Beijing significant leverage over industries ranging from electric vehicles to defense systems.

Country	Reserves (Metric Tons)	Rare Earth Production 2024 (Metric Tons)
China	44.0M	270,000
Brazil	21.0M	20
India	6.9M	2,900
Australia	5.7M	13,000
Russia	3.8M	2,500
Vietnam	3.5M	300
United States	1.9M	45,000
Greenland	1.5M	0
Tanzania	890K	0
South Africa	860K	0
Canada	830K	0
Thailand	4.5K	13,000
Myanmar	0	31,000
Madagascar	0	2,000
Malaysia	0	130
Nigeria	0	13,000
Other	0	1,100
World total (rounded)	>90,000,000	390,000

Large Reserves, Limited Production Elsewhere

Outside China, many countries with sizable reserves play only a minor role in production.

Brazil holds an estimated 21 million metric tons of rare earth reserves yet produces almost nothing today. India, Russia, and Vietnam show similar patterns.

Why Greenland Matters

Greenland’s estimated 1.5 million metric tons of rare earth reserves exceed those of countries like Canada and South Africa. Yet the island has never had commercial rare earth production.

Environmental protections, infrastructure constraints, and local political opposition have slowed development. Still, as supply chain security becomes a priority for major economies, Greenland’s position is becoming harder to ignore.

Trump’s interest in Greenland is driven by more than symbolism. Rare earths are essential for advanced manufacturing, clean energy technologies, and military hardware. With China firmly entrenched as the dominant supplier, policymakers in Washington are increasingly focused on alternative sources.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out China Dominates in Battery Manufacturing Spend on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

2026-01-20 02:34:52

How Nvidia’s Market Cap Stacks Up Against Entire Countries

See visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

A single chipmaker has grown so large that its market capitalization now rivals the economies of entire G7 nations.

Using Nvidia’s valuation from Yahoo Finance and nominal GDP data from the IMF World Economic Outlook, Nvidia’s roughly $4.6T market cap would “rank” as the world’s fourth-largest economy—behind only the U.S., China, and Germany.

How Nvidia’s Market Cap Compares to Countries’ GDPs

Nvidia’s rise in valuation over the past few years has been nothing short of historic. In 2025, it surpassed the GDP figures of heavyweights such as Japan, India, and the United Kingdom.

The data below showcases where Nvidia stands if compared to country economies, underscoring how central its chips have become to the AI revolution:

Rank	Country / Company	GDP / Market Cap ($B)
1	U.S.	30,616
2	China	19,399
3	Germany	5,014
4	Nvidia	4,572
5	Japan	4,280
6	India	4,125
7	UK	3,959
8	France	3,362
9	Italy	2,544
10	Russia	2,541
11	Canada	2,284

While comparing market capitalization (the total value of a company’s shares) to GDP (the annual economic output of a nation) is not an apples-to-apples metric, it illustrates the sheer magnitude of Nvidia’s scale relative to the global economy.

What makes this valuation even more impressive is the efficiency behind it: it takes only 36,000 Nvidia employees to generate a market cap that exceeds the GDP of Japan—an economy powered by nearly 124 million people.

What Powered Nvidia’s Surge in 2025?

Behind Nvidia’s jump in valuation is a mix of AI infrastructure spending, expanding AI use cases, and a sticky software ecosystem.

A huge wave of AI infrastructure spending flowed into accelerated computing, and Nvidia sat at the center of it.

Demand has repeatedly outpaced supply, and in their latest fiscal quarter earnings announcement, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out,” highlighting how quickly customers are buying up AI chips and cloud access to them.

At the same time, the AI story broadened beyond chatbots. Nvidia increasingly framed the next leg of the tech boom as “physical AI”—robots, autonomy, and industrial systems—widening the perceived long-term market for its compute platform.

Finally, Nvidia’s advantage wasn’t only hardware. CUDA and the surrounding software ecosystem helped lock in developers and customers, raising switching costs and making Nvidia harder to displace even as competitors raced to catch up, effectively acting as a competitive advantage or what Warren Buffett would call a moat.

Learn More on the Voronoi App

If you found this infographic interesting, explore more investing and market insights on Voronoi, including this graphic on Nvidia’s market performance since 2019.