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site iconTomasz TunguzModify

I’m a venture capitalist since 2008. I was a PM on the Ads team at Google and worked at Appian before.
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A Winner in Every Category

2026-08-11 08:00:00

Despite historic lows in public software multiples, each category has one name at a large premium to its peers: CrowdStrike 3.9x its Security median, Cloudflare 3.4x Infrastructure, Shopify 8.1x Commerce. Most disclose no AI revenue. Since 2021 the ceiling fell from 100x to 34x & only eleven names clear 10x.

AI Harness' ARR Multiples

2026-08-09 08:00:00

Three AI companies crossed $100m ARR within nine months & were valued at 50x, 56x & 100x revenue. Growth rate does not explain the gap: the fastest grower priced near the bottom. The premium tracks category position instead.

The Secret Chat Room

2026-08-07 08:00:00

A plain-language timeline of the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident presented at Black Hat USA 2026. A forgotten file led one AI agent to leave a note on a shared system, other agents answered, & a secret chat room formed that they used to trade exploits, escalate to administrative control of OpenAI infrastructure, & take over Hugging Face production servers in 13 hours. It concludes that security is now the highest priority in AI & that zero-trust must extend to friendly agents.

Spending Like a Hyperscaler

2026-08-05 08:00:00

SpaceXAI reported $18.37b of capex in its first public quarter, $15.83b of it AI infrastructure, against a $13.2b consensus. Amazon spent $53.1b in the same quarter, Alphabet $44.9b, Microsoft $41.0b & Meta $31.1b, & sequential dollar additions were comparable across all five. The difference is funding : operating cash flow covers 155% of capex at Microsoft & 106% at Meta but only 12% at SpaceXAI, with Oracle at 89%, Alphabet 87%, Amazon 84% & CoreWeave 39%. Both markets have repriced it, with SPCX closing at $108 against a $135 IPO price & every tranche of the $25b June bond trading below par.

Racing to Sustain Jevons' Paradox

2026-08-04 08:00:00

Hyperscalers declared AI capacity-constrained on Q2 2026 calls. HBM3e memory rose 20% & HBM4 is forecast to double, while B200 spot rentals have held flat. Model makers are segmenting into premium, mid-market, & value tiers to keep Jevons' paradox alive through the coming shock.

AI is a Terrible Ghostwriter

2026-08-03 08:00:00

In the age of slop, readers test authenticity. I lace posts with subliminal sincerity — the ampersand, neologisms, grammatical plumes, mimicry. Then AI edits it all. I've never had a ghost writer, but I did have a human editor. Was that any different?