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site iconTomasz TunguzModify

I’m a venture capitalist since 2008. I was a PM on the Ads team at Google and worked at Appian before.
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Aftermarket Harnesses

2026-07-28 08:00:00

The harness now moves the coding benchmark more than the model does. Endor Labs' Agent Security League found GPT-5.5 scored 61.5% functional correctness in Codex & 87.2% in Cursor, & Claude Opus 4.7 scored 87.2% in Claude Code & 91.1% in Cursor. Input tokens are 86-98% of OpenRouter volume, so the harness controls most of the bill through cache discipline. First-party co-design buys real cache hit rates, but a third-party harness can match them.

Yeltsin in the AI Aisle

2026-07-23 08:00:00

A year-old GPT-OSS-120b still serves 36% of Claude Opus 4.8's daily token volume on OpenRouter because the inference market has segmented across cost, speed, & accuracy. GLM 5.2 now out-serves the frontier at 495B tokens a day, & Opus 5 shipped to contest the open-weight field. Mixture-of-experts lets a 118B model decode at the cost of a 26B model, moving the boundary of the local segment.

Google's Cloud Revenue Converges to NVIDIA's Growth Rate

2026-07-22 08:00:00

Google Cloud reported 82% YoY growth to $24.8b in Q2 2026, began recognizing revenue from TPU system sales delivered to customer data centers, expanded operating margin to 35.6%, & grew backlog to $514b, with its growth rate converging toward NVIDIA's Data Center segment.

AI Engineering Productivity is Anything But Normal

2026-07-21 08:00:00

AI engineering productivity outcomes cluster in three tiers: a mean of 20-46% from distributing an IDE, a frontier of 2.5-3x from companies building the operating layer around agents (Replit, NVIDIA, Amplitude, Anthropic), & a factory tier at 8x+ where agents operate as first-class organizational units (Nubank with Devin). The gap is not the model but the operating discipline built around it.

Open Models Tack Toward the Frontier

2026-07-20 08:00:00

Open-weight models have repeatedly reached equivalency with closed frontier models, first with DeepSeek R1, then GLM-4.6, GLM-5.2, & Kimi K3. But open source has not materially led; closed models such as GPT-5.2-class systems & Opus continue to create step-change moments.

The Blank Slate AI Strategy

2026-07-16 08:00:00

Slate Auto's $24,950 customizable pickup truck & Thinking Machines' Apache-2.0 Inkling model pursue the same strategy: ship a deliberately unremarkable, general-purpose base cheap & let customers build value through customization. That business model funds open source in AI.