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site iconTomasz TunguzModify

I’m a venture capitalist since 2008. I was a PM on the Ads team at Google and worked at Appian before.
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NVIDIA's $108b Quarter

2026-08-26 08:00:00

NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 revenue reached $96b with a $108b Q3 guide, but hyperscale revenue grew only 13% sequentially against 25% for everyone else. To fund the buyers filling that gap, NVIDIA extended payment terms — DSO rose from 45 to 60 days & receivables hit $63b — & built a $581b stack of supply commitments, power guarantees, leases & $101b of equity in the AI startups & neoclouds buying its chips.

How Long Should an AI Agent Live?

2026-08-24 08:00:00

When designing an agent, should its session run for your entire five-year company tenure or reset every day? Perpetual sessions suffer from context rot and security exposure. The winning architecture is a daily coordinator that resets every 24 hours, delegating to ephemeral specialists and persisting state to local files.

The AI Bullwhip

2026-08-23 08:00:00

AI hardware bottlenecks cascade in sequential multi-year waves from GPUs to memory, SSDs, CPUs, HDDs, and physical data center shells, driving facility buildout costs to $20b per gigawatt through the classic Bullwhip Effect.

Mainframes became personal. So will your data center.

2026-08-21 08:00:00

Local models now answer 89% of everyday chat & reasoning queries as well as frontier models, & their efficiency per watt has improved 5.3x in two years.

Previously Unmanufacturable

2026-08-19 08:00:00

Every software product has its own grammar: Figma has frames and components, Salesforce has accounts, contacts, and opportunities, CAD has tools and constraints. Capability and required expertise rise together, so the most powerful tools are the ones fewest people can operate. AI lets users express intent in English while an agent handles the application's grammar, illustrated by a non-technical founder who directed Codex to drive CAD software and produce a dress once previously unmanufacturable for her. The counterpoint is that experts do not disappear: as in software engineering, where agents write most of the code but hard problems still require someone who understands the system underneath, depth still matters in the systems where depth is the job.

Birds Don't Fly Like Planes. Neither Does AI.

2026-08-18 08:00:00

Qwen3.6-35B-A3B generates 2.2x faster than Qwen3.8-27B, yet finishes slower because it thinks 3.1x longer. Across 25 tasks, quality is tied. Measure time to answer, not token speed.