2026-04-15 23:40:11
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To investors,
We can trace the root cause of many societal problems back to the destruction of the US dollar over the last few years. Heritage’s EJ Antoni recently pointed out “cumulative inflation since Jan 2021 is between 23.6% and 27.1%, depending on which index we’re using.”
These are big numbers that have negative consequences on real people. And these are just the government numbers. If we look at Truflation, they are reporting the compounded inflation since January 2020 is just under 30%. For the approximately 50% of Americans who hold 100% of their assets in US dollars, this is devastating debasement of their savings.
The Fed’s own data confirms this problem. The report M2 money supply has tripled since 2008 and purchasing power of the dollar is down 38% since 2008.
The average American’s savings has become a melting ice cube sitting in the sun on a hot summer day.
But compounded inflation and loss of purchasing power doesn’t tell the full story. Nominal wage growth in the US has been impressive over the last half decade. There is more money sloshing around the system and some of it finds its way into the consumer’s pockets.
EJ goes on to show the average American’s weekly paycheck can buy 3% less goods today compared to January 2021.
The inflation story has been widely covered, but the acceleration in wages has been largely ignored. The problem is that inflation creates second and third-order effects that eat away at an economy and a society. Home affordability is one good example.
Home prices have been increasing at a faster pace than wages, so we are seeing the average American’s ability to buy a home evaporate before our eyes.
When you have people falling further behind, they start to lose hope. When people lose hope, they become bigger risk takers. Why not? What do they have to lose? Nothing really, right?
This is why we are witnessing an explosion in sports gambling, meme coin trading, and other risky investing behaviors. So what is the anecdote?
There is something called the Success Sequence that seems to have stood the test of time. The sequence is very simple: graduate from high school, get a full-time job, get married before you have kids. If someone can do that, they significantly increase their odds of avoiding economic destruction or poverty.
This may seem simple for many of you, but we forget how many Americans end up following a different path. I share this reminder because we are living through a dollar debasement crisis, while watching commodities surge higher in a spectacular bull market.
Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows:
Sulfur: +67%
Jet Fuel: +66%
Urea: +51%
Diesel: +50%
Heating Oil: +40%
WTI Crude Oil: +37%
European Natural Gas: +34%
Gasoline: +32%
Fertilizer: +31%
Brent Crude Oil: +31%
Coal: +14%
Palm Oil: +10%
Iron Ore: +7%
Rice: +4%
S&P 500: +1%
$VIX: -8%
Commodity investors are enjoying the financial returns attached to this bull market. The average American is bracing for the negative impact from the same price appreciation. The only thing that can really save the economy is an economic explosion driven by technological innovation and led by the private sector.
We are seeing the early signs of this from the AI and robotics industry. We are going to need other industries like space, defense, biotech, and others to deliver deflationary pressures on the economy as well.
The US government is never going to stop printing money. We spent over $100 billion on interest payments for the national debt last month. That is billion with a “B” just last month. So our best hope is to grow our way out of this problem.
Accelerate. Accelerate. Accelerate. It can be done. We just have to let our entrepreneurs and technologists do their thing.
Have a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.
Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.
I sat down with John Pompliano to discuss what’s really happenning with bitcoin and the macro environment, covering inflation, AI-driven deflation, and Wall Street’s growing push into bitcoin through ETFs.
We also discuss why bitcoin has held up during global conflict and why its scarcity could make it a long-term winner.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-13 23:20:42
I’m speaking on the Mainstage at Consensus Miami this May 5-7 — the event the entire industry shows up for, from Wall Street, the White House, and all of Web3. 20,000+ decision-makers. 72% director-level or above. Three days where deals get signed, funds get raised, and the next cycle gets shaped.
This year’s agenda tackles the three forces driving trillions on-chain and reshaping global finance: crypto at scale, institutional integration, and agentic commerce. You can’t afford to miss it.
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To investors,
The United States and Iran were set to solidify the ceasefire with a peace agreement negotiated in Pakistan over the last few days. Vice President JD Vance stepped up to the podium after 21 hours of negotiations and informed the world there would be no peace deal.
Iran reportedly continues to refuse the US proposal, so the war is back on again. This time there is a big wrinkle though.
Rather than allow Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has decided to implement a blockade of their own. At first glance, this seems like a childish decision to merely claim victory in a skirmish, but upon further review there is strategic importance to the decision.
For example, Iran has not completely closed the Strait over the last few weeks. Instead, they have prevented most ships from passing through the waterway and they have merely been taxing other ships. This selective enforcement has been a big financial boost for the Middle Eastern country, especially because Iran has also been exporting their own oil through the Strait at the same time.
Rather than allow Iran to call the shots in the Strait, and continue to profit from their decisions, the United States blockade will rapidly cut off all economic benefit to Iran.
FDD Senior Fellow Miad Maleki writes “The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276 million per day in lost exports and disrupt $159 million per day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435 million per day, or $13 billion per month.”
This level of economic loss should apply maximum pressure to the country, along with exasperate the pain for Iran’s allies such as China. The decision for Iran to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz never really made sense, because they couldn’t deliver on their threats in the way people thought.
Hudson Institute’s Zineb Riboua writes:
“Iran’s move to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz ranks among its most strategically reckless decisions.
They cannot sustain control over it. Their military position does not allow for prolonged enforcement against determined opposition. More importantly, it was never a credible bargaining chip. Once escalated, it has to be relinquished without meaningful concessions. The only asset that has ever carried real negotiating weight is the nuclear program.
The logic behind the move is also flawed. The expectation was to trigger a global economic shock large enough to force a halt in U.S. operations. That outcome has not materialized. Instead, it has accelerated the opposite dynamic. Regional and global actors are now investing in routes and infrastructure designed to bypass the Strait altogether.
In trying to turn Hormuz into leverage, Iran is diminishing its long-term strategic value. Very stupid of IRGC.”
You can read about the geopolitical implications to this decision elsewhere, so I want to focus our time on how this development will impact the US economy and American citizens at home.
First, the United States has become the most popular girl at the bar when it comes to selling oil. There are hundreds of tankers from around the world that are rushing to the Gulf of America to purchase oil from us. Whether this was an intended outcome or not, America’s energy independence is quickly becoming a strategic asset that will drive significant revenue growth for our oil and gas industry, along with our country.
Second, there could be short-term military and operational costs for mine clearance, escorting ships, and potential combat with Iranian forces. These additional costs will only put more pressure on the national debt, which will lead to further debasement of the US dollar over the long run.
Third, oil prices will likely continue to be very volatile. The entire world is trying to figure out what the price for a barrel of oil should be, but the input costs, the available global supply, and the future prospects of production continue to change on a daily basis. There is consensus belief that a fully opened Strait will lead to lower oil prices, so a fully closed Strait will only continue to put upwards pressure on prices.
Fourth, the US stock market will be volatile. There is lots of pressure on software stocks and the tech industry more broadly, while energy and oil company stocks have been outperforming in recent weeks. These trends could reverse if the war ends, but it seems like we are in a state of volatility for the foreseeable future.
Lastly, there will be a mixed message in the domestic economy. As I wrote about last week, the US economy will continue profiting from higher oil prices, while American citizens feel the pain at the pump. This will feed the higher inflation narrative, especially as people brace for higher fertilizer prices, higher food prices, and higher shipping costs globally.
There is no way to spin the negative impact on US households in the short-term. The big question becomes how transient this impact will be? Once the war is over, do prices come back down quickly? Do Americans get amnesia and forget about this episode if the stock market rips higher over the summer? How do the midterm elections play into the geopolitical options that President Trump and his administration are weighing?
I don’t have answers to many of these questions. But it is clear that the US blockade is going to change the calculus for Iran in this conflict. They just went from being in charge to being cut off from the world. Regardless of what they say publicly, no one loses $13 billion per month and shrugs it off.
Lets just hope that we see a true ceasefire as a result of this latest escalation. War is an ugly thing and no one wants to see innocent people dying.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.
Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down what’s really going on in the market right now—from AI-driven disruption and rising inflation to why money is rotating into commodities and semiconductors. We also get into why bitcoin could be setting up for a bigger move as the macro environment continues to shift.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-12 21:54:25
To investors,
I normally don’t write a letter to you on Sunday morning, but I wanted to highlight a very interesting research report that came from ProCap Insights over the past week. The report looks at the impact of AI on the job market, including an analysis of whether artificial intelligence is stealing human jobs.
One of the most eye-opening conclusions was artificial intelligence has a disproportionate negative impact on young people compared to their older peers. The report explains:
In August 2025, researchers at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab published what may be the most important labor market study of the AI era. Erik Brynjolfsson, Chinchih Chen, and others analyzed employment trends across occupations ranked by AI exposure. Their findings shatter both narratives simultaneously.
Workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations experienced a 16% relative decline in employment since late 2022, after controlling for firm-level shocks. Young software developers specifically saw employment fall 20% below its late fall 2022 peak by mid-2025. Early-career customer service workers declined 11% from their November 2022 peak.
But workers aged 30 and over in those exact same high-AI-exposure occupations saw employment grow between 6% and 12% over the same period. The labor market did not shrink in these sectors. It bifurcated.
The mechanism is consistent with how AI tools interact with the labor force. AI handles a growing share of rules-based, structured tasks traditionally assigned to junior workers, from drafting emails and writing boilerplate code to summarizing documents and handling tier-one customer queries. Senior workers, whose value comes from tacit knowledge, judgment, and soft skills, are not displaced by these same tools.
They are augmented by it. One experienced developer with Copilot produces what previously required a team of three juniors.
JPMorgan’s Aliaga found the same dynamic. Over one-third of U.S. workers now use generative AI for job tasks, but the St. Louis Fed estimates generative AI accounts for just 5.7% of total work hours as of mid-2025. That 5.7% falls disproportionately on the repetitive, entry-level work that defined the first rung of most professional careers.
Goldman Sachs estimates that two-thirds of U.S. occupations have AI exposure, but only 6% to 7% of workers face genuine displacement risk. The rest face augmentation, and augmentation benefits the experienced.
This data makes sense when you realize that artificial intelligence is going to eat into the work force from the bottom up. As the technology improves, it will take over more complex and senior tasks, but until we reach that level of innovation it will be the young people who are affected the most.
But the story is not only age-specific.
The ProCap Insights report, which is generated through an agentic AI system, identifies major pain underway in the publishing and media industries. The report explains:
BLS establishment survey data reveals which sectors are already living in the post-AI labor market. Motion picture and sound recording employment has fallen 18.9% since January 2023, from 415,900 to 337,400 workers. Publishing industries employment declined 5.8% over the same period, from 958,500 to 902,800. These are content-creation sectors where AI tools directly substitute for junior and mid-level creative labor.
Meanwhile, professional, scientific, and technical services, the largest white-collar sector, grew just 0.9% over three years. That 0.9% translates to roughly 97,000 jobs added in a sector of 10.8 million, a pace that barely keeps up with population growth.
The sector is not contracting. It is calcifying.
The Harvard Business School research published in March 2026 reinforces this. Analyzing nearly all U.S. job postings from 2019 through March 2025, researchers found that automation-prone roles saw a 13% decrease in postings since ChatGPT’s launch, while analytical, technical, and creative roles saw a 20% increase. Job postings for automation-prone occupations also required 7% fewer skills.
Employers are not just posting fewer jobs. They are posting simpler ones, consistent with AI tools absorbing the complexity that once required a dedicated human.
Generative AI is very good at producing content, so it makes sense that content-focused industries are coming under pressure. Remember, this is the worse the technology will ever be, so we should expect an acceleration from here.
I continue to tell people that three areas of media will be safe from AI disruption: scoops, long-form profiles, and live coverage. But I believe people can insulate themselves from being negatively affected by AI if they can become AI proficient. There is not a company in the world that is going to fire employees who are the best at using AI internally.
Instead, companies are going to promote these people, give them more responsibilities, and likely pay them more money over time. Don’t sit around and be disrupted. Learn to use the tools and technology. This is true whether you are a professional investor or a casual individual investor.
Superhuman intelligence is now abundantly available. The only limiting factor is your curiosity and persistence.
Before I let you go, I highly suggest subscribing to ProCap Insights. We built an AI system to dig through mountains of data to identify unique or undiscovered insights, then the AI analyzes the data, fact checks the information, and writes the full report without human intervention.
The company published a ton of research this week, including 3 stocks that could benefit if oil falls below $80, 2 stocks Meta inadvertently boosted with its new AI model, 2 stocks that could rally big with stagflation signals flashing, and an airline stock that will fly if the Iran conflict doesn’t end soon.
If you subscribed before midnight tonight, you will get 60% off an annual subscription.
I hope you found this letter valuable. Have a great end to your weekend and I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
2026-04-09 22:25:17
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To investors,
The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire earlier this week contingent on a few conditions, including the Strait of Hormuz being reopened. Iran seems to be in agreement to open the Strait, but the Financial Times is reporting that the Middle Eastern country wants to be paid a tax of $1 per barrel of oil that goes through the waterway.
That demand does not seem out of the ordinary. But the FT also reported that Iran is demanding payment in bitcoin for this tax. That detail is potentially explosive if true.
This would be the first time that warring countries would be publicly agreeing to use bitcoin as a key component of a peace deal. The development is not shocking to the bitcoin community though. We have been saying for years that bitcoin is a digital, decentralized, non-sovereign, neutral asset that can be used by anyone in the world.
If two countries don’t trust each other, they can use bitcoin to settle transactions of economic value. The US has shown that dollars can’t be used for this purpose after the leading western nation aggressively sanctioned Russia and its oligarchs after the invasion of Ukraine. The US and multi-national corporations are not going to pay in yuan, yen, euro, or other fiat currencies.
Gold is too difficult to use because of the lack of portability and speed in a transaction. One other option would have been stablecoins, but those can be frozen, blocked, and confiscated as well. That risk is likely too high for Iran, which finds itself fighting against the greatest military the world has ever assembled.
This is not the first time that bitcoin has been used on the geopolitical stage. China’s hot and cold relationship with mining over the years has been well documented, along with various one-off bi-lateral trade agreements that were settled in bitcoin.
The United States intelligence agencies have been using bitcoin for awhile as well. I sat down with Michael Ellis, the deputy director of the CIA, last year and he explained to me how the agency looks at the digital currency:
Now the counter-argument to the importance of Iran’s announcement would be that the gulf country is not actually accepting bitcoin. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes eloquently wrote “I’ll believe Iran is charging a toll in bitcoin when I see a [transaction] linked to a vessel’s toll payment. Otherwise it’s just the IRGC trolling the western filthy fiat financial system.”
But regardless of whether the Iran government is actually accepting bitcoin or not, the narrative has gone viral globally and that may be the most important aspect of the story. Bitcoin is an idea’s time that has come.
How do we know?
Because on the same day that news broke of bitcoin’s role in a peace deal to end a war, Morgan Stanley launched their bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley is one of the largest financial institutions in the world and happens to be one of the longest standing investment banks on Wall Street.
It may appear Morgan Stanley is late to the game, but the organization is coming in hot and heavy. They are launching with a expense fee of 0.14%, which is the lowest in the market. That type of pricing pressure should force the hand of other players in the market, which could lead to more inflows over time.
I find it interesting that we are still getting “barbell news” in the bitcoin industry. The traditional financial firms want bitcoin to be a grown up asset they can package and sell to their clients, while the most violent criminals and terrorists in the world are flocking to the asset as a last resort to solve their unique problems.
It may be uncomfortable for people to recognize but this is what true product-market fit looks like. Bitcoin is attractive to different people for different reasons. If you need to store economic value for a period of time, bitcoin is a great option. If you need to prevent others from taking that economic value, bitcoin may in the only option.
It is exciting to see how far we have come in the last 15 years or so. But something tells me this story is not over and the next 15 years will be even more impressive.
I hope you all have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
I sat down to explain why bitcoin is holding strong while stocks, bonds, and gold decline amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. I also breakdown ETF demand, long-term holder accumulation, and why bitcoin continues to benefit from global liquidity and money printing, while addressing common risks and criticisms.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-07 20:31:15
To investors,
The Age of Automation is upon us. I have been writing about it and tweeting about it for almost a decade. Take Bitcoin as an example. It is an automated central bank that continues to manage the most disciplined and transparent monetary policy in the world.
Even the skeptics have to admit that the idea has been adopted by hundreds of millions of people globally.
But now automation is going to come for the rest of finance. The recent tech innovations related to artificial intelligence will allow new financial firms to be built with armies of AI agents that replace hundreds of human employees.
I know this because I am actively building ProCap Financial, the first publicly traded agentic finance firm.
Our first product, called Silvia, has automated away many of the consumer finance functions at large institutions. Rather than hire lots of people, we are able to help thousands of multi-millionaires gain better insights into their portfolios leveraging the latest AI models and a suite of proprietary agents.
Silvia has more than $30 billion of assets on the platform in under a year. The average user has a net worth of at least $2.5 million and they ask Silvia about 18 questions per week. Like I said, the age of automation is upon us.
But we are not stopping at consumer finance. Our goal is to build a financial firm that automates the products and services from traditional players, but does it with AI agents in pursuit of helping independent investors make money.
With this perspective as context, I am happy to share that ProCap Financial is releasing it’s second product today: ProCap Insights.
ProCap Insights is the research division of the company, but it also happens to be the first agentic research shop on Wall Street. We only have one human overseeing the AI system being used to conduct research, write the analysis, and publish the reports.
I fundamentally believe the machines are smarter than the humans. AI is very good at finding hidden insights across financial markets. The same technology allows us to create research faster and cheaper than human teams too. This is what real automation looks like.
The big focus of ProCap Insights is to help you make money. Some of the initial research we are launching with includes:
You can read about the launch of ProCap Insights in the Wall Street Journal this morning: Click here. Or you can watch part of my segment from this morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box:
If you are looking for investment ideas and believe that AI is smarter than humans, you should consider subscribing to ProCap Insights. Anyone who subscribes in the next 48 hours will get grandfathered in at a 60% discount to the normal price.
We are laser-focused on helping independent investors make money. And the AI agents are helping us answer your questions via Silvia, or surface interesting investment ideas via Insights.
We will keep building even more.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-06 22:04:44
Memecoins are a multi-billion dollar asset class, and the infrastructure around them is maturing fast.
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To investors,
Jamie Dimon, CEO of the world’s largest bank, dropped his annual letter this morning and it is filled with noteworthy comments. Most interesting to me, Dimon decided to use the letter as a vessel for reinforcing the American values, while calling for a country-wide recommitment to the ideals that built the greatest nation on earth.
He writes now is “the perfect time to rededicate ourselves to the values that made this great nation of ours — freedom, liberty and opportunity.
The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China. Even in troubled times, we have confidence that America will do what it has always done — look to the values that have defined our singular nation and sustained our leadership of the free world.”
This optimistic message from one of the country’s most important business leaders comes in stark contrast to the mainstream media headlines in recent weeks. Those headlines make it sound like the world is ending and a catastrophic recession is right around the corner. Oil is spiking. Bombs are dropping. The Strait is closed. Gas prices are surging. And sky high inflation will be here any day now.
But a very different story emerges if you zoom out and actually look at the data. Simply, the conflict in Iran is not breaking the US economy. Instead, it is reinforcing just how dominant America has become.
Let’s start with the fact that the United States is no longer an energy-dependent country. According to the EIA, America has been an energy net exporter since 2019. That is a complete reversal from decades of vulnerability. There is a wide margin between what we export compared to what we import, which is mainly driven by the pesky detail that US crude production is running at roughly 13.6 million barrels per day.
This makes America the largest energy producer in the world.
Now does the US still import some crude oil? Yes, but that is mostly due to edge cases related to refining efficiency and logistics. What really matters is the net position and America exports far more petroleum products than it brings in. This is important to understand because when global energy prices rise, the US counterintuitively profits at the national level from the upside of higher energy prices.
This is a dramatic change from how these situations used to play out. If we go back to the 1973 oil embargo, the US was heavily dependent on foreign oil. Supply shocks led to long gas lines, soaring inflation, and a real hit to economic growth. Energy was a weakness and market commentators rightfully were worried. In the modern economy, energy is much closer to a strategic asset though.
Greg Ip explains in the Wall Street Journal how this new position of leadership atop the world of energy has empowered the current administration to make geopolitical moves that were previously thought unwise or impossible:
“Trump’s revamping of the U.S. role in world security and trade now extends to oil. No longer does the U.S. see itself as the guarantor of international stability and norms, but rather as a self-interested actor using control of oil to enhance its own power.
The U.S. became an energy superpower through serendipity and policy. The shale revolution vastly increased domestic oil and gas production, while federal and state policy and the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities made that output available to the world.
In the process, oil and gas became key contributors to U.S. economic growth and prestige. The U.S. earns more from exports of LNG than of corn and soybeans, and twice as much as it does on movie and TV content, S&P Global reports.
Fossil fuels are foundational to Trump’s vision not just of domestic prosperity but international clout. He created a National Energy Dominance Council shortly after taking office, and his National Security Strategy, issued last November, calls “American energy dominance” a “top strategic priority.””
But this is where investors really need to dig into the data. Even with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and oil pushing above $100, the impact on the US economy looks surprisingly contained. Estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs suggest that every $10 increase in oil prices reduces US GDP growth by about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points while adding a modest bump to inflation. That is not nothing, but it is manageable. Especially when you compare it to Europe or parts of Asia, where economies are still heavily dependent on imported energy and feel these shocks much more directly.
Now let’s zoom out to the broader economy and the resilience becomes even clearer. Forecasts still call for around 2.2 percent real GDP growth in 2026. That is slightly lower than earlier expectations, but it is nowhere near recession territory. Unemployment remains in the low 4% range. Consumer spending continues to be strong and nothing in the labor market suggests catastrophe is on the horizon.
Even the Federal Reserve is remaining calm and not signaling panic. The central bank’s expectation is that the conflict may nudge inflation higher, but it is unlikely to materially derail growth unless oil prices spike to extreme levels. Most Wall Street analysts view that as a low probability scenario.
This brings us to a very weird second-order effect from the current geopolitical uncertainty. While everyone is focused on the short-term impact to oil, gas, and potentially inflation, the United States is gaining immense leverage on the global stage.
I know it is not popular to talk about this, especially when we are still striking Iran, but it is essential to recognize what is happening so you can allocate capital appropriately for the coming years ahead.
America is now one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG and refined petroleum products. That gives us real economic and geopolitical power. Many of our European allies now rely heavily on American LNG and they are increasingly tied to US supply for their own stability. Higher global prices reinforce that relationship and accelerate the shift away from less reliable or hostile energy sources.
At the same time, the domestic US economy benefits from relatively abundant and cheaper energy. That matters more than people think and it is not something that is being widely covered. Manufacturing, data centers, and AI infrastructure all depend on consistent, affordable power. While other regions deal with higher input costs, the US remains better positioned to scale due to our lower sensitivity to the higher energy prices.
Before I get a barrage of responses saying to “look at gas prices!” or calling me an idiot, none of this analysis means there are no downsides. Of course there are downsides. Consumers feel higher gas prices at the pump in the short term. Sentiment goes down and discretionary spending gets tighter. These microeconomic factors are not immune to realities in commodities, but at the macro level the picture is much stronger than headlines suggest.
This is a classic case of macro vs micro economics. And it begs the question of what the administration is optimizing for? I don’t have that answer, but they have continued to say it is Main Street’s turn to enjoy economic abundance, because they believe Wall Street has captured enough. The problem with that statement is that you have to balance the nation’s economic health with the every day experience of American citizens who struggle to pay an extra dollar per gallon of gas each week.
This is where so much of the debate gets lost in my opinion. It is very easy to write articles about the price of gas or the promised impact on higher inflation reports that are yet to surface, but those details are unlikely to drown out the macro benefits accruing to the United States.
The Iran conflict is not exposing cracks in the system. It will not crash the US economy, nor will it deliver sky-high inflation similar to what we saw during COVID. Instead, the current situation is revealing just how much more resilient and dominant the American economy has become.
And over a long period of time, that is a great development for Americans even if we don’t feel it on a day-to-day basis.
Have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.
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