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Without software premiums, where does growth go?

2026-10-28 03:01:29

Today’s letter comes from Nick Fouriezos, a former Washington correspondent and tech CMO, who broke down what investors should watch with Big Tech reporting earnings this week.


To investors,

On Friday, Apple became the most valuable company in the world (passing Nvidia at about $5.1 trillion.). Its stock is up 28% this year, the best of the Magnificent Seven.

It is also the one spending the least to build AI. Why?

The answer may lie in the collapse of the software premium.

(Magnificent 7 performance, Barchart)

Software used to be the best business in the world.

Writing a program was expensive. Selling one more copy costs almost nothing.

That is why investors paid a premium for tech stocks for two decades. Every new customer was nearly pure profit. But AI breaks that model. Every answer a chatbot gives runs on chips, power and data centers that someone has to build.

So Big Tech, which used to be traded on a software premium, is now spending like a utility. For example, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta plan to spend more than $700 billion on capital expenditures this year.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella explained the shift on the podcast “Confession with Ali Partovi.”

“We are going to be a more capital intensive business in a world where marginal cost of software is approaching zero,” he said. And many investors increasingly see that as a trap. The software they sell is getting cheaper to copy.

At the same time, the infrastructure they need to run it is getting more expensive to build. The market is repricing as a result. Investors don’t pay software multiples for utility businesses.

In July, the Magnificent Seven’s valuation premium over the S&P 500 fell to about 10%, its lowest in more than a decade. Look at who the market is rewarding this year. Apple, the lightest spender, leads the group.

Meta, one of the heaviest, is down for the year (and when Meta reported last week and declined to give a 2027 spending outlook, its stock fell about 7%).

The premium first moved to the labs.

OpenAI is reportedly raising money at a $1.4 trillion valuation, about 28 times its roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue. Anthropic, the maker of Claude, could go public as soon as next month, with prospective investors floating $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion, roughly 30 times its revenue.

Most of Big Tech trades at a fraction of that. Still, sentiment appears to be turning downward. OpenAI’s annualized revenue is roughly $50 billion, about $20 billion below one widely reported estimate, and its IPO has slipped to 2027.

Anthropic’s quarterly growth slowed to 45%, down from roughly 147% the quarter before, as rivals cut prices. And as we’ve previously reported, cheaper open-source models now handle most of the tokens on at least one major AI gateway.

Most of this year’s IPOs are underwater, and SpaceX fell below its offering price within a month of listing. Anthropic’s IPO will be the biggest test yet of whether public investors will still pay a software premium for an AI company.

Now the suppliers are getting hit too. Big Tech’s spending is someone else’s revenue, and chipmakers were the year’s big winners.

However, that is starting to change. Earlier this month, chip stocks fell for more than a week straight, nearly matching their worst streak since 2008 and erasing about $2 trillion in value.

South Korea’s stock market, home to memory giants Samsung and SK Hynix, is about 40% below its June peak.

So why does this matter? And where does growth go next?

The 10 largest companies make up about 39% of the S&P 500. Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft alone are about 20%. And for years, the index’s returns have been powered by software-style profits. If those companies start trading like utilities, rather than receiving software multiples, the whole market’s growth engine slows down.

The next rotation could be into the sectors the AI trade left behind.

Healthcare is up about 25% over the past year, compared with about 15% for the S&P 500. Freight shipments have grown for two straight months after 42 months of declines. That recovery comes with a catch: diesel prices are up 68% from a year ago. Still, the physical world economy is starting to move while AI cools off.

What to watch this week.

Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, and Amazon reports Thursday. Watch three things:

  1. Next year’s CAPEX. Meta wouldn’t give a number and its stock fell sharply. If others stay quiet too, investors will assume the worst.

  2. Cloud growth. If cloud revenue grows faster than spending, the software premium could come back.

  3. Where stocks move. Beats on revenue haven’t been enough. Investors want some proof (or at least reassurance) that all this spending will pay off.

Where do you think growth goes next, if AI labs don’t get the software premium going forward?

We may spotlight your most interesting takes on X and in future editions of the Pomp Letter.

-Nick Fouriezos (@nick4iezos on X)


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Will Bitcoin Survive Quantum Computing? | Jordi Visser

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In this conversation, we break down Chamath’s claim that bitcoin is going to zero, the real quantum computing risk, the historic hedge fund unwind, and why AI is now smarter than all of us. We also discuss using AI as a life coach, genetically modified war dogs, and why Eli Lilly could become the biggest company in America.


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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.


You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

1
Investor Health is a telehealth platform, not a medical provider. Medical services are provided by affiliated licensed clinicians. Compounded medications are not FDA-approved. Individual results may vary and treatment requires evaluation by a licensed provider. Terms and conditions apply — see InvestorHealth.com
2
GalaxyOne is a financial technology platform, not a bank. Galaxy Premium Yield is an investment note issued by Galaxy Digital LP and guaranteed by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP — it is an investment product, not a bank deposit, is unsecured, and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Available to U.S. accredited investors only. Cash deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC, insured up to $250,000. Annual Percentage Yield is variable and subject to change.

The new “boomer candy” fund that turns dividends into Bitcoin

2026-10-26 21:29:28

To investors,

Bitcoin was a contrarian trade a decade ago. If you believed, and had the courage to allocate your dollars, then you were handsomely rewarded by one of the most asymmetric assets of our lifetime.

The digital asset is less contrarian today.

Instead, the largest financial institutions in the world are spending time and resources to figure out how to put bitcoin into as many traditional wrappers as possible. Blackrock’s success with the bitcoin ETF caught everyone’s attention, so now there is a race underway to financialize the asset.

Most of these attempts are uninteresting and appear to be the equivalent of this famous meme:

But Franklin Templeton recently filed for a new fund strategy that caught my attention. It is called DRIP, which is short for “Dividend Reinvestment Plan,” and the idea is to give investors 95% exposure to the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100, while putting 5% exposure of bitcoin into the fund.

That is not necessarily innovative, but then the fund will convert all dividends from equity exposure into more bitcoin over time. So rather than reinvest the dividends into the equity index or pay out the dividends in cash, the fund will buy more bitcoin from the dividend payments.

I find this interesting because this is what Eric Balchunas has previously called “boomer candy.” It is fairly traditional exposure to the US equity market, but there is enough of a sexy twist that you could see the fund pulling in AUM. Traditional investors want the perception of taking risk, yet they want to feel like they are not abandoning their core investment philosophy.

This fund strategy does both. It allows for ~ 95% of the investment to hold pure equity exposure via an accepted index, but the dividend reinvestment into bitcoin is “cool” and feels “risky.” Notice that I didn’t say anything about the fact that the fund’s bitcoin exposure will lead this S&P or Nasdaq exposure to outperform the underlying indexes.

In my opinion, narratives are more important than returns with a fund like this. And there may be no greater narrative than “you can be a bad boy, but it is okay because you will still be safe.”

I expect to see many more variations of these “boomer candy” funds that incorporate bitcoin. As I have said before, bitcoin is the riskiest asset held by the most conservative investors, and the safest asset held by the highest risk investors. That intersection makes it the perfect asset to leverage for new inflows.

Bitcoin has struggled in the last year. The AI trade sucked air out of the room. But it will be glorious when the AI gains rotate back into bitcoin. Investors will need a “safe” place to put their gains, especially against the backdrop of rapid disruption in equities and insanely undisciplined monetary policy, so that is when bitcoin will become the belle of the ball once again.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Silvia, Inc (Nasdaq: SVIA)


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Will Bitcoin Survive Quantum Computing? | Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down Chamath’s claim that bitcoin is going to zero, the real quantum computing risk, the historic hedge fund unwind, and why AI is now smarter than all of us. We also discuss using AI as a life coach, genetically modified war dogs, and why Eli Lilly could become the biggest company in America.


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  2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

  3. Fitnexa is an AI-powered wellness technology brand. Its SomniPods 3 combine intelligent sleep technology with all-night comfort to support better rest and recovery. Use code POMP10 for $10 off.

  4. Investor Health — Clinician-prescribed protocols for weight, metabolism, and longevity, shipped to your door in 48–72 hours. No office visits. InvestorHealth.com.2

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  8. Lava - The Lava Card allows you to earn up to 5% back in bitcoin every time you spend. There are no annual fees, no FX fees, and no gimmicks. You can also use Lava to borrow against your bitcoin at 6.5%, the industry’s lowest interest rate. Get started in just a few minutes at lava.xyz/pomp!

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.


You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

1

Network, ecosystem, top-up and withdrawal fees may apply.

2

Investor Health is a telehealth platform, not a medical provider. Medical services are provided by affiliated licensed clinicians. Compounded medications are not FDA-approved. Individual results may vary and treatment requires evaluation by a licensed provider. Terms and conditions apply — see InvestorHealth.com

3

GalaxyOne is a financial technology platform, not a bank. Galaxy Premium Yield is an investment note issued by Galaxy Digital LP and guaranteed by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP — it is an investment product, not a bank deposit, is unsecured, and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Available to U.S. accredited investors only. Cash deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC, insured up to $250,000. Annual Percentage Yield is variable and subject to change.

Only 100 free tickets left for next week’s investing conference

2026-10-25 23:16:43

To investors,

My goal is to help readers of this letter make money by more effectively managing their portfolios. In my pursuit of this goal, I spend an enormous amount of time meeting smart people, interviewing founders and investors, analyzing companies, and critically thinking about the future.

One area that I have not spent a lot of time on in the past was ETFs. But capital flows have led me to realize that I will have to add ETFs to my coverage area because ETFs have gone from a niche product to one of the dominant vehicles in global investing over the last 15 years.

Here are some stats to put this in perspective:

  • US ETF assets rose from roughly $1–2 trillion around 2010–2015 to $13.4 trillion at year-end 2025.

  • Global ETF assets climbed from under $2 trillion in the early 2010s to over $20 trillion earlier this year, including more than doubling in just from years from 2019 to 2024.

  • US ETFs account for about 70% of global ETF assets now.

  • ETFs now represent ~30% of U.S. investment company assets.

  • Global ETFs recorded 87 consecutive months of positive net inflows through mis-2026.

  • US household ownership of ETFs surged from ~1 million households in 2005 to nearly 20 million last year. This is about 15% of all US households.

The reason for this growth can be attributed to low costs, liquidity, transparency, tax advantages, and regulatory changes, which has led to a compounding effect. Over the last 15 years, ETFs delivered multi-fold asset growth, took substantial share from mutual funds, attracted record and highly consistent inflows, and reached tens of millions of households. Pretty incredible.

To kick off this expansion into ETFs as another asset class or industry that we will cover in these letters, I am hosting a massive one-day event in NYC on November 3rd with many of the top entrepreneurs and investors from the ETF industry.

Speakers include:

  • Dan Ives (Partner, Yorkville Ives & Co)

  • Jan van Eck (President & CEO, VanEck)

  • Robert Mitchnick (Global Head of Digital Assets, BlackRock)

  • Eric Balchunas (Senior ETF Analyst, Bloomberg)

  • Matt Cole (Chairman & CEO, Strive)

  • Gavin Filmore (CEO, Tidal Financial Group)

  • Bilal Little (Global ETF Strategist, Direxion)

  • Ryan O’Connor (CEO, Global X)

  • and many more incredible leaders

In an effort to bring you as much value as possible, I have reserved 100 tickets at the event for readers of The Pomp Letter. These tickets are 100% free and being personally subsidized by me.

It is first come, first served for the tickets. Not only will you learn a lot about various investment opportunities, but the room will be full of big time investors and capital allocators.

🚨 You can claim your free ticket by using code POMPETF26 when you check out on the event website here.

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I look forward to seeing some of you at the event on November 3rd. Talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Silvia, Inc (Nasdaq: SVIA)

Five Friday Charts: What to take from Asia market turmoil

2026-10-24 00:44:24

To investors,

Asia’s AI trade is unwinding. South Korea’s KOSPI is more than 40% below its June peak after last week’s “Black Thursday,” and China’s stock market just posted 11 straight red weeks despite 4.5% GDP growth. The short answer for investors: this is fear about AI spending and higher Treasury yields, and governments are already stepping in. Here are five charts that explain it.

Each Friday, the Pomp Letter publishes five charts that helped us make sense of the world this week. We hope these will bring you clarity.

1. SpaceX Now Gets Most of Its Revenue From AI and X

(Phil Rosen, Opening Bell Daily)

SpaceX’s AI and X revenue grew more than ninefold in a year, from $810 million to $7.56 billion. Over the same stretch, the rocket business grew 6%.

Most of that AI money isn’t coming from chatbots. It’s coming from renting out computing power to other companies.

Our friend and colleague Phil Rosen said it best: “Investors who bought SpaceX for rockets and Starlink now own a stock that gets more than half its quarterly sales from AI and X. Unreal.”

2. Korea’s Black Thursday: Why the KOSPI Is Down 40%

(Dario Catodici, JustDario.com)

Last week, South Korea’s KOSPI plunged nearly 8%, a session local press called “Black Thursday.”

The biggest winners of the AI boom fell hardest. Samsung sank 9.5%, and SK Hynix fell more than 11%. The KOSPI is now more than 40% below its June peak.

That’s close to the average drop in Korea’s seven previous market crises, including the 1997 Asian financial crisis and 2008, according to Daishin Securities.

The trigger was fresh doubt about AI spending, along with rising Treasury yields that make safer bonds look more attractive.

“Ultimately, the AI revolution will be judged not just by how much computing power we build, but by how profitably we use it,” Manish Singh of Crossbridge Capital told Bloomberg.

AI’s future is one of nearly unlimited productivity potential. Its present though is one of high debt-servicing costs.

On Thursday, Hong Kong-based analyst Dario Catodici warned the KOSPI was “on the verge of crashing hard again, 3rd time this week,” with “a high chance that tomorrow will be Black Friday in Korea if a miracle does not strike.”

He was close. On Friday, the KOSPI fell as much as 4.1%, then reversed to close up 0.3%. SK Hynix, one of the hardest-hit names, finished up nearly 5%.

No miracle needed, at least not this week.

3. China’s Stock Market Has Its Worst Losing Streak on Record

(Barchart)

It’s not just Korea. China’s economy just beat expectations, growing 4.5% last quarter.

Yet its stock market is having its worst run on record, with 11 straight red weeks.

Another sign that traditional economic indicators say little about how markets will perform.

The chip and AI stocks that powered China’s spring rally are now leading the drop.

China’s tech-heavy STAR 50 is down about 40% since June 30, and chip stocks are down 45% this year.

This is what an AI trade unwinding looks like.


4. Governments Now Step In at the First Sign of Trouble

(Phil Rosen, Opening Bell Daily)

Beijing isn’t waiting to find out how bad it gets. State-backed funds are buying stock ETFs at the fastest pace since July.

It’s the same government playbook that Pomp highlighted at the Silvia Investor Summit two weeks ago, where he said he doesn’t expect another 18-month recession in his lifetime.

At the first warning sign, governments step in. History shows why. Black Monday turned 39 this week. On Oct. 19, 1987, the S&P 500 fell 20.5% in a single day.

The Fed promised to flood the system with cash, and a year later the index was up 23%.

After the October 2008 crash, Washington stepped in again. Stocks were up 21% a year later.

5. Crypto Hacks Are Cybersecurity’s Canary

With the help of AI, hackers are having their best year ever, at least by volume.

Crypto hacks in 2026 are running at more than double their usual pace … serving as a glimpse for what the general web can soon expect.

“Onchain hacks are a canary for what will happen in the rest of web security, because onchain is the first and easiest place to monetize cyberattacks,” says Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at Dragonfly.

The big protocols have hardened their defenses, many with AI tools of their own, leading hackers to find more vulnerable targets

“The dollar value of hacks has gone down, while the number has gone up—a mass looting of small, poorly maintained protocols,” Quereshi adds.

— Nick Fouriezos is a former Washington correspondent and the founder of Scalable Storytelling, a narrative firm leading tech content and launches. Follow him on X at @nick4iezos.


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Dan Ives on AI, Tesla, SpaceX, Coreweave, and more

Dan Ives is a partner at Yorkville Ives and one of Wall Street’s most-followed tech analysts.

In this conversation, we break down what he saw on the ground in Korea and why he thinks the AI bears are wrong. We also discuss the potential Tesla and SpaceX merger, CoreWeave and AI debt fears, the midterms, interest rates, and where the stock market goes from here.


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  8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

  9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com


🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.


You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

1
GalaxyOne is a financial technology platform, not a bank. Galaxy Premium Yield is an investment note issued by Galaxy Digital LP and guaranteed by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP — it is an investment product, not a bank deposit, is unsecured, and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Available to U.S. accredited investors only. Cash deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC, insured up to $250,000. Annual Percentage Yield is variable and subject to change.
2
Securities products are not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed, and may lose value. GalaxyOne Crypto is not FDIC or SIPC insured.
3
Investor Health is a telehealth platform, not a medical provider. Medical services are provided by affiliated licensed clinicians. Compounded medications are not FDA-approved. Individual results may vary and treatment requires evaluation by a licensed provider. Terms and conditions apply — see InvestorHealth.com
4
GalaxyOne is a financial technology platform, not a bank. Galaxy Premium Yield is an investment note issued by Galaxy Digital LP and guaranteed by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP — it is an investment product, not a bank deposit, is unsecured, and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Available to U.S. accredited investors only. Cash deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC, insured up to $250,000. Annual Percentage Yield is variable and subject to change.

Where will new demand for bitcoin come from?

2026-10-22 21:36:48

🚨 ETF Investor Forum Is Almost Here

I’m hosting the ETF Investor Forum on November 3rd in NYC, bringing together 700+ investors, advisors, and ETF industry leaders to discuss where capital is flowing next.

The lineup includes Dan Ives, Jan van Eck (VanEck), Eric Balchunas (Bloomberg), Robbie Mitchnick (BlackRock), Matt Cole (Strive), Ankur Nagpal (USVC), and many more.

I’m giving away 25 free tickets to Pomp Letter readers. Use code POMPETF26 at checkout. First come, first served. Once they’re gone, you can still get 50% off with code POMPLETTER.

Get Your Tickets Here


To investors,

Bitcoin has been a game of supply and demand for nearly two decades. As more investors seek out the specific properties offered by Bitcoin’s scarcity, the price of bitcoin has to move higher to accommodate for the new demand.

This means current holders should always be asking themselves “where will new demand for bitcoin come from?”

The answer to this question was obvious during the pandemic because every day thousands of people around the world learned the realities of undisciplined government spending and the negative effects of runaway inflation. As these people lived their lives, they realized they needed a solution to their problem and many of them turned to bitcoin as a new entrant in their financial life.

But those days are largely behind us. Inflation is still a problem, but that narrative has been spread far and wide. There is not the daily influx of new demand that we saw half a decade ago. So the question of “where will new demand for bitcoin come from” is even more important now.

I am on record saying the new demand or catalyst for bitcoin was not obvious over the last few years. I have confidence there will be a new narrative, a new source of demand, and a new catalyst, but predicting it in advance is never easy. We know the bitcoin halving every 4 years has a positive impact on price, but that impact is dissipating as bitcoin’s market cap has increased and more people come to anticipate the scheduled event.

Thankfully, one of the largest financial institutions in the world is now predicting where new demand will come from. Fidelity, who administers over $20 trillion in financial assets, recently published a new research report stating “BTC-focused perpetual preferred stocks have accumulated more than 135,000 BTC in just over a year, despite representing only a fraction of the global fixed income market. What could happen if adoption expands?”

The report is worth reading here, but the key takeaways are:

  • In early 2026, companies began issuing perpetual preferred stocks with attractive yields specifically to raise capital for buying and holding bitcoin, betting that bitcoin’s appreciation will exceed the cost of the yield.

  • These instruments typically pay dividends more frequently than traditional preferred stocks (bi-monthly to daily) and are designed to trade near par value so issuers can repeatedly issue more shares and buy more bitcoin.

  • Strategy pioneered the model in July 2025; other issuers followed. By early 2026 the mechanism was already driving significant bitcoin purchases.

  • In just three months (March–May 2026) these products enabled the purchase of over 95,000 bitcoin, raising more than $7 billion.

  • As of October 5, 2026, bitcoin-focused perpetual preferred stocks had facilitated the accumulation of 135,979 bitcoin—more than 0.5% of total supply—in a little over a year.

  • For comparison, spot bitcoin ETPs accumulated 888,185 bitcoin in their first year after launching in January 2024, so preferred stocks have so far been a smaller but still meaningful new demand channel.

  • The products appeal to investors seeking high yields amid inflation concerns while gaining indirect bitcoin exposure; they sit at the intersection of fixed-income and digital-asset demand.

  • Bitcoin’s scarcity (only ~5% of supply left to be mined as of late 2025, with another halving approaching) contrasts with ongoing growth in fiat money supply and U.S. debt, reinforcing its appeal as a long-term store of value.

  • The global fixed-income market is ~$150 trillion; these preferred stocks currently represent only about $12 billion, illustrating large potential for further adoption if yields remain competitive with bitcoin’s historical growth.

  • The report concludes that even modest uptake in the fixed-income market could meaningfully affect bitcoin’s supply-demand balance; both ETPs and perpetual preferred stocks are transparent, traditional-finance-origin demand sources that Fidelity will continue to track.

There are two main things I walked away from after reading the report. First, it is a big deal that Fidelity is writing this analysis. Sometimes the messenger is more important than the message. This is probably one of those cases. Second, Fidelity has nailed the right question: what if perpetual-preferred stocks become a new demand source because they eat into the fixed income market?

That would be a very big deal. And some of that story is related to bitcoin, but it is also dependent on the fact that fixed income has been struggling to be attractive to investors over the last few years. Couple in the issues from the private credit market and you have a lot of capital looking for yield in a new, safer mechanism.

Is this bitcoin innovation of perpetual offerings the answer? I am not sure. Time will tell how much adoption there ends up being. But one thing is clear, the early momentum now has the attention of the argest financial institutions in the world.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: SVIA)


Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started, Says Billion Dollar Investor

Moez Kassam is the co-founder and CEO of Anson Funds, one of Canada’s top-performing hedge funds.

In this conversation, we break down how he trades hype and momentum, why he went from bitcoin deals to bitcoin believer, and the lessons from putting $1 billion into bitcoin treasury companies. We also discuss the AI trade, Korea’s memory boom, long activism, prediction markets, and SPACs.


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  3. Fitnexa is an AI-powered wellness technology brand. Its SomniPods 3 combine intelligent sleep technology with all-night comfort to support better rest and recovery. Use code POMP10 for $10 off.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.


You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

1
Investor Health is a telehealth platform, not a medical provider. Medical services are provided by affiliated licensed clinicians. Compounded medications are not FDA-approved. Individual results may vary and treatment requires evaluation by a licensed provider. Terms and conditions apply — see InvestorHealth.com
2
GalaxyOne is a financial technology platform, not a bank. Galaxy Premium Yield is an investment note issued by Galaxy Digital LP and guaranteed by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP — it is an investment product, not a bank deposit, is unsecured, and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Available to U.S. accredited investors only. Cash deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC, insured up to $250,000. Annual Percentage Yield is variable and subject to change.

Is this Robotics’ 2022 ChatGPT Moment?

2026-10-21 23:46:03

Today’s letter features a guest post from Nick Fouriezos, a former Washington correspondent who leads launches for tech founders and investors.


To investors,

The biggest winners of the AI boom were companies most investors couldn’t buy. OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI went from billions to trillions in four years, all while staying private.

Andrew Kang thinks the same thing is about to happen again.

Kang is the co-founder and CEO of RoboStrategy, a Nasdaq-listed fund that owns stakes in private robotics companies, including Figure AI and Apptronik. Around half of all labor in the world is knowledge work, Kang told Pomp at his Silvia Investors Summit earlier this month.

“That’s what AI is tackling today,” he said. “The other half is physical labor.”

And that is what robotics is going after.

“We’re early, but things are really going to start to inflect,” said Kang, who believes investments and valuations in robotics still trail AI by 3-4 years.

“This is the 2022 of robotics”

If he’s right, how do you get exposure?

1. Buy private (through a public wrapper).

Kang’s strategy is to back companies he doesn’t expect to go public until the next 1-3 years.

RoboStrategy (BOT) reported a net asset value of $11.35 per share at the end of September. The stock is at $22.70, as of publication. That means you’re paying $2 for every $1 of robotics stakes, and those stakes are valued with private marks.

You’re betting the companies grow faster than the premium shrinks.

And if robotics accelerates the way AI did, a 2x premium will look cheap in hindsight (so long as BOT owns the companies that win … so far, they’re backing many of the favorites).

2. Buy a humanoid ETF.

The older robotics ETFs, like ROBO, ARKQ and ROBT, mostly own factory automation and self-driving technology. If you want exposure to humanoids specifically, there are two newer funds: KOID and HUMN.

HUMN is concentrated in robot makers like Tesla, UBTech and XPeng, and it fell roughly 26% in July.

KOID weights its holdings equally and owns more of the companies that make the parts. Both are down 25% or more from their spring highs. Is that a sign for caution or an opportunity to buy low?

Do your own research, but if you’re bullish on humanoid adoption coming sooner rather than later, then today’s market may represent an opportunity.

3. Buy the parts.

Kang’s view is that the main bottleneck will eventually be the machines, not the intelligence.

In a humanoid, that means actuators.

Actuators are the motors, gears and screws that move each joint. Morgan Stanley estimates they make up about 56% of the cost of a Tesla Optimus-class robot. For 40 years, the precision gears inside those joints belonged to one company: Japan’s Harmonic Drive Systems.

Now China is catching up.

Leaderdrive, known in China as Green Harmonic, reportedly sells comparable reducers at 40% to 60% of the Japanese price. It sold 425,158 reducers last year, up 72%, and is building capacity for 1.44 million a year.

This is the memory chip question all over again.

If humanoids scale faster than supply, part makers get pricing power. If Chinese capacity floods in, prices fall.

So which should you own?

History offers a clue. In the 1980s, Japan dominated memory chips. Then Korean rivals undercut them on price and outbuilt them on scale.

By 2012, Japan’s last major memory maker, Elpida, was bankrupt.

In a race to scale, the cheapest producer with the most capacity usually wins. That points to Leaderdrive, which is why its trading at more than 260 times next year’s expected earnings, (compared to Harmonic Drive, at nearly 70).

Leaderdrive also trades only in Shanghai, where most U.S. investors can’t easily buy.

If you want exposure to both, but can’t access the Chinese markets, the simplest way to own both is HUMN (which holds each at about 4%).

What to watch.

  1. Tesla’s earnings today. Any update on Optimus production could move the whole sector.

  2. BOT’s premium. If it shrinks closer toward its net asset value, the market is cooling on private robotics in the short-term (and for buyers, a NAV discount might be in order)

  3. Reducer prices. Falling Chinese prices are good for robot makers and bad for part makers.

In 2022, most investors only realized how big AI was after the best gains were gone.

Robotics is giving them a second chance to what could be an equally seismic shift to our every day lives.

We’ll keep you updated along the way.

-Nick Fouriezos

Nick Fouriezos is a former Washington correspondent and the founder of Scalable Storytelling, a narrative firm leading tech content and launches. Follow him on X at @nick4iezos.


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Bitcoin Is Just Getting Started, Says Billion Dollar Investor

Moez Kassam is the co-founder and CEO of Anson Funds, one of Canada’s top-performing hedge funds.

In this conversation, we break down how he trades hype and momentum, why he went from bitcoin deals to bitcoin believer, and the lessons from putting $1 billion into bitcoin treasury companies. We also discuss the AI trade, Korea’s memory boom, long activism, prediction markets, and SPACs.


Podcast Sponsors

  1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime yielding ~8.5% APY. They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Crypto Backed Loan today. Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824)

  2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

  3. Abra - Bitcoin, two possibilities: explore BTC-backed borrowing or a BTC yield strategy managed by Abra Capital Management. See terms and risks at abra.com/pomp.

  4. Fitnexa is an AI-powered wellness technology brand. Its SomniPods 3 combine intelligent sleep technology with all-night comfort to support better rest and recovery. Use code POMP10 for $10 off.

  5. Investor Health — Clinician-prescribed protocols for weight, metabolism, and longevity, shipped to your door in 48–72 hours. No office visits. InvestorHealth.com.1

  6. GalaxyOne – Earn up to 8.00%2yieldon cash. Auto-Reinvest into stock and crypto.

  7. Lava - The Lava Card allows you to earn up to 5% back in bitcoin every time you spend. There are no annual fees, no FX fees, and no gimmicks. You can also use Lava to borrow against your bitcoin at 6.5%, the industry’s lowest interest rate. Get started in just a few minutes at lava.xyz/pomp!

  8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

  9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com


🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.


You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

1
Investor Health is a telehealth platform, not a medical provider. Medical services are provided by affiliated licensed clinicians. Compounded medications are not FDA-approved. Individual results may vary and treatment requires evaluation by a licensed provider. Terms and conditions apply — see InvestorHealth.com
2
GalaxyOne is a financial technology platform, not a bank. Galaxy Premium Yield is an investment note issued by Galaxy Digital LP and guaranteed by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP — it is an investment product, not a bank deposit, is unsecured, and is not FDIC or SIPC insured. Available to U.S. accredited investors only. Cash deposits held at Cross River Bank, Member FDIC, insured up to $250,000. Annual Percentage Yield is variable and subject to change.