2025-12-19 22:28:01
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To investors,
I wanted to share five lessons I learned this year as we head into the final two weeks of the year.
First, always question the mainstream narrative. The tariff panic in the first half of 2025 led many investors to sell assets, predict a big crash, or generally find themselves offsides in financial markets. I was fortunate to avoid this trap by doing my own analysis of source material to better understand what had happened in 2018 when tariffs were levied against various goods (read that letter here).
In hindsight, I was able to identify the need for this analysis because I recognized a pattern that raised red flags. The consensus narrative is almost always wrong as soon as dissent is outlawed. We saw this during the COVID situation and it was easy to spot when people were labeled lunatic MAGA cheerleaders for merely suggesting that tariffs wouldn’t lead to sky-high inflation, empty shelves, or the next Great Depression.
Lesson: Always question the consensus and look for moments where dissent is outlawed.
My second lesson of the year was market structure can overwhelm narratives and vibes. Bitcoin is the perfect example. Everyone was excited going into the year because Trump was aspiring to be the first bitcoin President, the ETFs were gobbling up capital, and Wall Street was poised to embrace the digital industry.
Although bitcoin performed well in the first half of the year, it eventually crashed nearly 40% from the all-time high and left many investors disappointed in its performance. The reason for this lack of sustained appreciation is a combination of heavy call selling, large liquidations on October 10th, and immense profit taking by OG whales.
The vibes were good. The narrative was immaculate. But the market structure was ultimately too powerful of a force.
Lesson: Sometimes you have to tune out the noise and study the market structure.
My third lesson of the year is that bubbles are sexy, but remain very rare. We saw this play out well in the public market related to AI. It seems like tons of people watched the Big Short movie and now they want to call the next big market crash. It became cool to be a bear at some point in the last few years.
The stock market doesn’t care about those people’s feelings or opinions though. Innovation helps create value out of thin air and that is what artificial intelligence has been doing. The idea that a bubble could form and pop, while the market players are saying they can’t keep up with demand, is quite comical.
I have yet to find a person who claims AI won’t be valuable over time, but there are a lot of questions about the financial return on the significant investments being made. Those are fair questions that should be asked. But predicting the next Great Financial Crisis every two months doesn’t make a lot of sense. I am often reminded of the Bill Gates quote, “we overestimate what we can do in one year and underestimate what we can do in ten years.”
Lesson: Fear porn is popular now. Supply and demand are still undefeated though.
My fourth lesson of the year is that gambling is America’s favorite activity. We had an explosion of examples throughout the year. Zero day options are dominating the market. Levered ETFs with 3x or 5x leverage continue to be launched on single name stocks. Sports gambling has been sweeping the nation. And prediction markets have pulled off the greatest rebrand of all time by convincing people they are predicting the future rather than gambling on the weather, the color of someone’s tie, or whether an active shooter is going to be caught in the first 48 hours.
I don’t claim some moral high ground because I believe that all financial markets are speculation, which is just a fancy way to describe gambling. If you buy stocks, you are ultimately gambling. If you buy options, you are gambling. If you buy cryptocurrency, you are gambling. It is just that these investment related activities have much better odds of success than buying a lottery ticket, sitting at a blackjack table, or letting a triple parlay fly on NFL Sunday.
Lesson: America is addicted to gambling. Choose your form of gambling wisely.
My fifth lesson of the year is that public markets are going to become much more popular with the younger generation of entrepreneurs in the coming years. It used to be cool to stay private for as long as possible. SpaceX is talking about going public next year. Medline just went public after nearly a half century. OpenAI and others are eyeing the public market as well.
People are realizing the public market has better access to capital and the market scrutiny forces you to run a better business. Add in the fact that the private market returns for the average venture fund are getting squeezed because of the amount of capital pouring into that sector and you can see why founders, executives, and investors will begin leveraging the public markets once again.
This will have a profound impact on the companies that choose this route, but also on the millions of investors who have been boxed out of some of the best investment opportunities due to lack of access or antiquated accreditation laws.
Lesson: Public markets are going to be popular once again.
These are the five lessons from 2025 that are top of mind right now. I usually take the last two weeks of the year to debrief myself on what went well, what mistakes did I make, and what were the main lessons I learned. If I come up with other information that I think would be valuable for everyone, I will send more conclusions in another letter.
Hope everyone has a great end to their week. I’ll talk to you on Monday.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano break down what’s really happening in the bitcoin market — why price has stalled, how volatility is evolving, and what most investors are missing about the next phase of this cycle.
We also dig into the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut debate, the broader economic backdrop, and how liquidity conditions are shaping risk assets — with a brief touch on BUD/S training and why discipline matters in markets and life.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-18 23:11:53
To investors,
The government reported inflation metrics this morning and they came in freezing cold compared to economists’ expectations. CPI was forecast to be 3.1% year-over-year, but instead the data came in at 2.7%. That is 40 basis points lower than what economists predicted.
Core CPI was no different. Expectations were 3.0%, but the actual numbers came in at 2.6% year-over-year. Another 40 basis points below expectations.
As I have continued to say, deflation is smacking the US economy in the face. Tariffs are deflationary. AI and robotics are deflationary. Deportations are deflationary. Too many people have their brains broken by politics to understand what is happening right now.
Even Truflation, the most accurate inflation measurement in my opinion, is showing inflation at 2.5% this morning.
You can see from the reaction of the mainstream media that everyone has been convinced inflation is going higher and the economic policies being implemented could not possibly help bring down prices. Take a watch as the inflation numbers came out this morning:
While these year-over-year numbers are encouraging, Professor Jason Furman points out that the numbers of shorter timelines are even more encouraging. He writes:
Core CPI annual rates:
3 month: 1.6% (lowest since Feb-2021)
6 month: 2.6% (lowest since July -2025)
12 months: 2.6% (lowest since Mar-2021)
Geiger Capital shows “core CPI in November came in lower than all 62 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted…[and] core CPI is at the lowest level since 2021.” Warren Pies hits the nail even harder by explaining that “all 3 broad vectors: Shelter, oil, and labor [are] disinflating.”
Data is data. People may not like these facts, but it doesn’t change them. Harvard Professor of Economics Ken Rogoff said it best on CNN this morning when he said “I was surprised. It was a better number than anyone was expecting. It was positive news — there’s no other way to spin it.”
Again, politics broke the brains of a lot of people. Democrats are predicting inflation to be over 5% a year from now and Republicans are predicting the number to be around 1.5%. The truth is probably somewhere inbetween.
Your job as an investor is to tune out the noise. Look at the data. Read the source materials. Allocate your capital based on what is likely to happen, not based on what you want to happen.
Investors have to be truth seekers. Politics gets in the way of that pursuit. Inflation is coming down. Deflationary forces are assaulting the economy. And my guess is that GDP growth will accelerate in coming months and asset prices are going higher.
Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
🚨 Kathy Wylde is the most powerful woman in New York. It is impressive to watch her command her peers, rally resources, & ultimately get things done. Anyone who is a player knows & respects Kathy.
My wife, Polina Pompliano, spent a few days shadowing Kathy & wrote a fantastic profile of the ultimate boss.
You can read the profile of Kathy Wylde here:
Anthony and John Pompliano break down what’s really happening in the bitcoin market — why price has stalled, how volatility is evolving, and what most investors are missing about the next phase of this cycle.
We also dig into the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut debate, the broader economic backdrop, and how liquidity conditions are shaping risk assets — with a brief touch on BUD/S training and why discipline matters in markets and life.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-16 23:12:57
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To investors,
It seems like every day we are being bombarded with negative headlines, scary predictions of a big market crash, and the promise of economic destruction right around the corner. The people pushing this negative view of the world will point to data points like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey as evidence that American citizens are in big trouble.
But as the Wall Street Journal’s Gunjan Banerji recently pointed out, the Goldman Sachs Social Media Economic Sentiment Index has diverged in a big way from the Consumer Sentiment Survey.
Which one should you believe? The Goldman survey that measures what people are saying online when they think no one is watching or the academic survey that asks people to fill out an online form with specific “measurement” questions? I’ll take the social media sentiment every day of the week.
It isn’t just social media though. Mike Zaccardi shows Google searches for “AI bubble” have started declining from their recent peak.
My takeaway from that rapid decline is that most of the AI-related fear was actually just a hysteria induced by mainstream media coverage that served a constant barrage of negative stories for the last few weeks. Nothing has really changed about the AI market or the AI companies, so the fact that people are not furiously asking “are we in a bubble?!” tells me that people are probably not worried about a real bubble being present yet.
They shouldn’t be worried about a bubble either. The Federal Reserve is starting to pump capital back into the market. Tom McClellan says “tor those keeping score at home, this new QE will actually be QE5. We had QE4 after the Covid Crash in 2020.”
This QE is happening at a time where the US government’s finances are improving too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that “the current calendar year-to-date deficit is $1.52 trillion, which compares to a deficit of $1.93 trillion for the comparable period last year under Biden, a 21% drop.
Not only is the deficit smaller under President Trump - the economy is also bigger. The full 2025 calendar year budget deficit to GDP may total only 5.5%, substantially lower than the unsustainably high 6.8% in calendar year 2024 under Biden.”
Forget the political sharpshooting and focus on what is important: the US government’s finances are improving. This is good for every American citizen. You can see another area where this is showing up in national gasoline prices. These prices are now the lowest they have been since March 2021.
And if that doesn’t get you excited, the Carson Group shows the last two weeks of December have historically been one of the best periods of the year for stocks.
I know people are winding down for the holidays, but the market may be coiling for an end of year run. It would be a welcomed Christmas present for investors across markets.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.
Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-16 07:16:48
To investors,
Bitcoin can’t be ignored by institutional investors anymore. Despite price volatility, the asset has seen massive institutional inflows, a successful integration of spot ETFs, and adoption on corporate balance sheets globally. Bitcoin is rapidly becoming an integrated part of our modern finance system because Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate.
This institutional inevitability is why we built Bitcoin Investor Week – to bring together thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.
As a holiday gift to Pomp Letter subscribers, we are releasing 100 General Admission tickets at 30% off with code BIWHOLIDAY.
Sale ends this Friday (December 19th) or when sold out.
Join us in New York City February 9th - 13th and get direct access to the CEOs, institutional investors, policy makers, and investment heads who are actively making the multi-billion-dollar allocation decisions. We always deliver a great lineup of speakers, including:
Mike Novogratz
Grant Cardone
Bo Hines
Anthony Scaramucci
Lyn Alden
Jan van Eck
Fred Thiel
Jeff Park
Jordi Visser
Many more names listed here (plus more to be announced)...
Use code BIWHOLIDAY for 30% off on a limited batch of General Admission tickets. Sale ends this Friday (December 19th) or when sold out.
I look forward to seeing you in-person in February.
-Pomp
2025-12-15 22:07:40
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To investors,
Financial markets have learned to listen when the President of the United States talks about asset prices or the economy. When he said to buy stocks earlier this year, it was a great time to buy stocks. When he said tariffs wouldn’t lead to empty shelves or the Great Depression, you should have gone long stocks immediately.
This makes sense because the leader of the free world, regardless of his political party, had immense power and influence over financial markets. Simply, he can make things happen.
But every once in awhile Trump says something about the economy that sounds downright outrageous. The latest example was a few days ago when he said GDP growth should be 20-25% year-over-year. The exact quote was: “instead of a 4% GDP or 3% GDP, it should be able to be 20 or 25%. I don’t know why it can’t be.”
At first, this comment sounds ridiculous because the US has averaged 3.2% annual GDP growth since 1947. So the President is telling us he thinks that his economic policies can get us to a growth number that is 700% higher. Again, sounds ridiculous, right?
Maybe not. There is a possible path to significant GDP growth. It may be unlikely, but it is possible.
First, Michael Arouet highlights the real driver on how we could get to 20-25% GDP numbers. Michael writes “Hear me out, was the entire period since the Great Financial Crisis just an unsustainable artificial debt binge?”
If that is true, the US economy could easily grow faster if we were willing to take on substantially more debt. That may sound like a crazy idea, but that is exactly what we have been doing for the last 25 years.
The United States’ debt-to-GDP has exploded from about 55% in the year 2000 to nearly 125% in 2024. We are addicted to debt. There is no other way to describe the situation.
But the Trump administration has somehow figured out a way to stimulate GDP growth upwards of 3.5%, while reducing the federal budget deficit by around $600 billion.
Kevin Hassett went on television last week and said “It’s looking like the deficit for this year will be $600 billion lower than it was last year. That really helps lower inflation. We’ve got the trade deficit cut in half from last year. All of these things are things that should continue to move us towards the Fed target of 2%.”
Now this doesn’t mean they are going to balance the budget. In fact, I went from being excited about a balanced budget earlier this year to very cynical about any President in our lifetime being able to balance a budget in light of the structural challenges. But reducing the deficit by $600 billion is still a great development.
So this brings us back to growing GDP at a substantially higher rate. The way you do this is ease monetary policy, encourage technology innovation like AI, and deregulate as much as possible. There will be trade-offs to these decisions, but this is the blueprint for growing GDP much faster.
Take AI as one example. The explosion of innovation and investment from Silicon Valley has essentially saved the US economy. More than 60% of GDP growth is estimated to be from AI-related investments. Couple that with the interest rate cuts, the return of QE, and a Trump-friendly Fed Chairman for 2026…that should spell faster growth across the US economy.
We were promised an economic boom. It looks like we are going to get exactly that. Will it be 20-25% annual GDP growth? Doubtful. But I’ll take 5-7% growth any day of the week.
Hope everyone has a great start to their Monday. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.
Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-12 21:33:40
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To investors,
The Federal Reserve will begin buying back $40 billion in US treasuries starting today. The purchases are planned to happen over the next 30 days and signal a return to quantitative easing from the central bank.
Historically, the introduction of QE has been very bullish for investors. But this policy shift is happening at a very interesting time. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello writes “investors are now paying 26.2 times peak S&P 500 earnings, the highest valuation we’ve seen since 2000 and over 50% above the historical median. A decade ago this same ratio was at 16.8.”
These valuation levels will obviously make some investors nervous if they compare them to the last few decades.
Mike Zaccardi and Torsten Slok show “the historical relationship between the S&P 500 forward P/E ratio and subsequent 10-year annualized returns shows that investors should expect to get zero in return in the S&P 500 over the coming decade.”
Again, investors are looking to capture a return. They don’t want to hear about an expected return of zero for the next decade. Thankfully, these negative predictions are being met with lots of positive news.
E.J. Antoni explains the Atlanta Fed now has the “Q3 GDP estimate increased to 3.6% as exports revised higher, offsetting downward revisions to investment and government. It’s very good news that government purchases might come in flat for the first 9 months of 2025 - that’s incredible progress.”
And Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was on television yesterday predicting GDP growth could reach as high as 6% under the Trump administration’s policies.
“Real GDP growth! Not 2% nonsense. This $30T economy can grow 4%, 5%, and under President Trump, you’re gonna see it grow 6%!!…People think, it’s impossible? Lower rates, lower energy, you have that growth, you’re gonna fix America.”
Time will tell whether Lutnick is right or not. Regardless of the long-term accuracy, it is very clear that certain economic points have been improving. Adam Kobeissi shows “US rent prices declined -0.2% MoM in November, to $1,706, recording the largest November drop in at least 15 years. This also marks the 5th consecutive month of flat or negative rent changes.”
That is a big narrative violation. It is these positive developments in the economy that give firepower to Lutnick and others to go on offense against the establishment leaders who have the perception of holding back growth.
In that same interview yesterday, Lutnick went on a rant about Jerome Powell saying:
“Jay Powell is too afraid to lead the greatest $30 trillion economy in the world. We should be leading with our front foot. Instead we are always leaning back as if something bad is happening. We are doing great. Nothing bad is happening. Greatness is happening. We’re growing 4% GDP! Come on.”
Regardless of your politics, it is clear that two things are happening: the US economy is experiencing a boom in GDP growth, while stocks continue to surge higher amid worries about future returns available to investors. There is significant disagreement about what is going to happen in the coming months and years. That is how markets get made though. You need bulls and bears. Buyers and sellers.
One thing I know to be true though…the optimist tend to come out on top.
Hope you all have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Mel Mattison is one of the leading macro strategists on the internet, known for his deep insights into global markets and digital assets.
In this conversation, we break down why inflation fears are overstated, why rates may fall faster than expected, and how energy and politics are shaping today’s markets. We also cover the rise of young independent investors, growing distrust in institutions, and what all this means for bitcoin, stocks, housing, and the AI-driven economy ahead.
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