2025-12-03 22:49:12
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To investors,
There is wild speculation over who the next Federal Reserve Chairman will be.
It has essentially become a finance soap opera. There was a period of time where the President was threatening to fire Jerome Powell. We saw the administration pressuring the Fed into cutting rates more aggressively. Housing Director Bill Pulte found reported mortgage fraud emanating from one of the Fed Governors, which led to a big legal dispute on whether the President could fire the Governor. And most recently, Stephen Miran replaced Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors after Kugler stepped down to return to academic life.
This type of chaos is relatively unprecedented for America’s central bank. But the entire Trump administration has been relatively unprecedented, so maybe that makes the chaos part of the strategy.
This brings us to the big question: who will be the next Fed Chairman?
While we won’t know until the official announcement, President Trump seemed to give us a hint yesterday during a public appearance at the White House. Watch what he said about Kevin Hassett and the Fed Chairman speculation:
Polymarket odds have Kevin Hassett as the dominant favorite (83%) to be the next Fed Chairman as well.
So who exactly is Kevin Hassett and do we think this is a good choice?
Kevin Hassett is a well-known supply-side economist. His policy views are focused on unleashing economic growth through tax cuts, deregulation, and accommodative monetary policy. A key component of his world view is that we should prioritize growth over very strict inflation control.
Many people consider Hassett to be a “pro-growth” conservative. This is based on his argument that lower barrier to investment and production can raise wages, boost innovation, and enhance national security.
None of those seem like bad ideas. The question is how do we get those outcomes? That is where the big debate and controversy lies.
Now another aspect of Hassett’s views comes from a book he wrote in 2014 where he discusses a “4% Solution.” This idea is a roadmap for sustained 4% GDP growth through tax certainty, spending restraint, and energy deregulation. Again, this sounds a lot like Ronald Reagan’s supply-side ideas.
Hassett has been pushing this idea recently as he argues booming consumption under Trump policies signals “lower-income optimism,” contrasting with what he calls overstated Biden-era stagflation.
Here are some of Hassett’s key policy positions as summarized by Grok:
Now one other interesting data point on Kevin Hassett, which was pointed out by Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen, is that Hassett “is a former Coinbase advisor who still reportedly holds a sizable stake in the cryptocurrency exchange.”
So we have Trump fanning the flames of speculation. We have Kevin Hassett leaning into the supply-side economic policies. And we have market participants that are salivating over the idea of a new Fed Chairman who would bring interest rates down and drive more growth in asset prices.
It ain’t over until the fat lady sings. But I say bring on Mr. Hassett and let him bring some common sense back to the central bank.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano break down the chaos inside today’s markets — from Bitcoin’s pullback to what’s really happening with the ETFs. We dig into why Vanguard suddenly capitulated, how a Trump-appointed Fed chair could reshape the entire macro landscape, and why political goggles are destroying people’s ability to think clearly about money.
Plus, we unpack Michael and Susan Dell’s massive $6.25 billion donation to jump-start investing accounts for 25 million American kids — and what it means for the next generation of wealth-building.
Enjoy!
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Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-02 22:14:59
You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.
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To investors,
Professional investors care about their returns and they care about the correlation in their portfolio. The return measures how much money they are making, while correlations measure how much pain they could feel if a recession or financial panic sets in.
The former shows you upside and the latter illuminates potential downside.
This is important right now because we are living through a regime change in asset correlations. Remember, we saw all assets (stocks, bitcoin, gold, etc) go higher together in 2021, they all fell in unison in 2022, and these assets collectively recovered very aggressively in the last few years. Just like a hand in a glove, these assets ebbed and flowed with each other.
That is starting to change though. Take a look at the performance of various assets over the last 12 months:
S&P 500: +12%
Gold: +59%
US Treasuries (TLT): -1.25%
Bitcoin: -10%
There are a few major takeaways from these data points. First, US treasuries continue to be a money-losing proposition over the short and long-term. TLT is down more than 40% over the last 5 years and it is negative over the last 12 months too. Second, stocks and gold have done very well in light of the return to monetary easing and misplaced inflation fears. Add in the AI boom for the equity market and it has been a great year for anyone holding these assets.
In fact, Adam Kobeissi explains how strong the current stock market momentum is:
“The S&P 500 has finished positive for 7 consecutive months, the longest streak since 2018. Over this period, the S&P 500 has gained +23.9%. This is also in line with the rallies seen in 2009, 2013, and 2021. Meanwhile, the Dow has seen 7 straight monthly gains, the longest streak since early 2018. With December historically one of the strongest months for the market, upside momentum is strong. The bulls are in control.”
This brings us to bitcoin. The digital currency has been a big disappointment performance wise for many investors in 2025. The widely held belief was that bitcoin would continue the 4-year cycle, including a big blow off top in Q4. Instead, bitcoin is down double digits over the last year and to throw salt in the wound, bitcoin’s dismal performance has been against the backdrop of equities and gold doing so well.
Look at this chart from Justin Gallum. It shows that gold has continued to track M2 global liquidity, while bitcoin departed in the opposite direction sometime in Q3 of this year.
This brings us back to correlations. Investors want to add non-correlated assets into their portfolio so they can increase their risk-adjusted return and reduce the volatility of their investments without giving up potential returns.
The general thesis is that various assets have different demand drivers. For example:
Stocks → driven by earnings & liquidity
Gold → driven by real rates & currency strength
Bitcoin → driven by liquidity, adoption, risk-on sentiment
Farmland → driven by crop yields & climate
Art → driven by collector demand
This is why you constantly hear financial advisors yell about diversified portfolios. They are playing a spreadsheet game that attempts to decrease risk without sacrificing returns. Of course, that is not what actually happens in the real world.
You actually have to increase risk and volatility in a portfolio to optimize for total returns. You quite literally should be getting paid for the risk you are taking. But that is not how all investors think. They instead will look at a comparison of these various assets and see that gold’s one year performance is high, the one year volatility is low, and both the one and five year Sharpe ratios are superior.
This is a dream for many investors. The question is whether the dream can continue or if nightmares are right around the corner. If you have been listening to me throughout the year, you probably know I am very optimistic about the next few years in financial markets.
Public equities are poised to continue moving higher. The AI boom is very real and likely only beginning. The fact that our politicians can’t stop spending money means that gold and bitcoin will continue doing well. And maybe the only asset I am bearish on for the next 2-3 years is US treasuries, which seem to be designed to go down forever in value.
Time will tell if I am right or not. But in the current moment, we are watching the breakdown of correlations. Assets are not moving in lock step like they were in recent years. This creates more opportunities for investors to create outperformance…or to underperform the market. Let’s hope each of you is on the right side of that outcome.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano dig into whether markets have truly bottomed or if more pain is coming.
They break down the economy, inflation, rates, politics, and immigration — and how all of it is shaping investor psychology right now. Plus, they unpack Mike Green’s argument that America’s real poverty line may be closer to $140,000 than $31,000.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
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BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-01 23:41:38
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To investors,
Headlines show that Black Friday sales shattered all previous records with an estimated $11.8 billion spent online by American consumers during the one-day event.
That is $11.8 billion spent exclusively online. We don’t have the in-store sales data yet, but all signs point to another record there as well.
This new record is noteworthy because it debunks all the media reports about low consumer sentiment in the economy. The surveys are saying one thing, but the verifiable data at checkout registers is saying something else.
So what is going on here?
Well, this may not be a popular answer, but both groups are actually right. Wealthy citizens are doing well and they went out in full force to purchase discounted products. This has been going on all year. In fact, almost half (48%) of all e-commerce sales in Q2 of this year came from the top 10% of people on the socioeconomic ladder.
At the same time these rich people are gobbling up the coolest clothes and electronics, Navy Federal’s Heather Long points out:
“Americans are frustrated with the economy -- and the outlook for 2026. Every consumer sentiment gauge is saying the same thing: Sentiment is down to the worst levels since April (or since inflation summer of 2022).
Why?
Because the middle class is feeling squeezed. (And lower-income households are basically in a recession)
1) It’s hard to get a job (unless you work in healthcare)
2) The cost of living is up, especially the basics of food, utilities, healthcare, insurance and auto repair.
3) Real incomes are trending down as inflation rises and pay gains are getting stingier.”
But there was something even more interesting about the Black Friday data that can’t be ignored. Lower income consumers are using financing to purchase goods at an unprecedented rate, which means people outside the top 10% are still trying to consume…they just are doing it with credit.
“Headline numbers would make you believe that people are doing better than ever before, but
BNPL services saw a 9% increase this Black Friday
41% of shoppers aged 16 to 24 used BNPL
Younger millennials increased BNPL usage by 87% vs last year
38% of households earning above $100K used BNPL
25% of BNPL users now use it to finance groceries
That’s the story here. People are relying on financing for consumer purchases, more than ever before.”
Ok, that is not good. But maybe there is a glimmer of relief from an otherwise negative story. Buy Now, Pay Later was only 6% of total sales on Black Friday, so it is not a national crisis by any means, but it is something we must continue watching.
The broader story at the moment is that regardless of sentiment, the current administration’s economic policies are creating a very positive impact on the US economy.
Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen writes:
“The economy is booming right now. Atlanta Fed projects GDP near 4% for the third quarter, following 3.9% growth in Q2. The economy isn’t working for everyone, but it’s still growing fast and remains historically productive.”
Remember, economists were predicting economic collapse back in April due to tariffs, but now GDP growth projections are at 4%. Life comes at you fast and most of the doomsday predictors look ridiculous in hindsight.
This GDP boom is carrying into the stock market too. Warren Pies says:
“S&P 500 - 6,750 (and rising) ✅
10-year yield - sub-4% (and falling) ✅
Oil breaking down ✅
Gold holding above $4k ✅”
Warren isn’t alone in his enthusiasm either. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick is predicting a Christmas rally. He writes:
“S&P 500 was up more than 10% YTD heading into the last two months. November was just flat. The last two months have been up the past 16 times it was up 10% YTD heading into it. Still think Santa Claus comes to town in December.”
So Black Friday was a resounding success. All eyes now turn towards the Cyber Monday reports, while the stock market and GDP continue surging higher. The tale of two experiences is not going away unfortunately. We just have to hope people start understanding they can only win if they own assets and chill.
Hope you have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano dig into whether markets have truly bottomed or if more pain is coming.
They break down the economy, inflation, rates, politics, and immigration — and how all of it is shaping investor psychology right now. Plus, they unpack Mike Green’s argument that America’s real poverty line may be closer to $140,000 than $31,000.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
1 Network, ecosystem, top-up and withdrawal fees may apply
2025-11-27 00:25:43
To investors,
I have previously written to this group about the concept of one BIG IDEA. The general premise is that every standout investor gets a single great idea during their lifetime. Their job is to exploit that idea as many times as they can.
Buffett bought things for less than they were worth. Icahn agitated companies until they improved. Simons used math to find inefficiencies. The list goes on and on.
I believe the BIG IDEA of my generation is that the government will never, ever stop printing money. There are many ways to exploit this fact, but your (and my) job is to capitalize on the incompetence of our politicians and central bankers.
Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows US M2 money supply just hit a new all-time high of $22.3 trillion.
As he so eloquently puts it, “death, taxes, and printing money…”
Charlie explains the new all-time high was achieved because “the US money supply grew 4.6% over the last year, the biggest year-over-year increase since July 2022.”
Now this is obviously a positive tailwind for investors. If you hold assets denominated in dollars, and those dollars keep losing value, then your assets will surge in price. The higher prices go, the wealthier the investor becomes.
But there is a national crisis underway for those that don’t own enough assets. Balaji Srinivasan shows “the cost-of-living crisis is really a sovereign debt crisis. You can only print and borrow for so long. It causes problems in the long run. And the long run is here.”
In my view, the same way that a generation of investors get one BIG (Investment) IDEA, societies have to navigate one Bad (Policy) Idea per generation. In our current generation, the same trend of money printing is creating the BIG (Investment) IDEA and the Bad (Policy) Idea.
That is why there is so much controversy, debate, and chaos. What is good for the top 50% of Americans is destructive to the bottom 50% of Americans. The money that is printed, the wealthier asset owners get and the poorer non-asset owners become.
The first principles solution would be to address the root cause of societal issues by halting the printing of money. The problem is that no one, especially not any politicians, are incentivized to do that. It would be a suicide mission for any elected official to strip their constituents of the various benefits from money printing.
We should make the hard decision today. Just don’t hold your breath that our leaders will have the stomach for doing it.
Have a great day and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I will talk to you on Monday morning.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano dig into whether markets have truly bottomed or if more pain is coming.
They break down the economy, inflation, rates, politics, and immigration — and how all of it is shaping investor psychology right now. Plus, they unpack Mike Green’s argument that America’s real poverty line may be closer to $140,000 than $31,000.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-11-25 23:10:29
You can now access Italy’s Investor Visa with a €250K equity investment into Bitizenship Italia, a Milan-based Bitcoin startup. Visa approval arrives first, investment happens only after authorization. The company operates with a Bitcoin-aligned treasury, non-custodial L2 staking, and clear redemption windows every 24 months.
To date, Bitizenship has facilitated €25M+ in Bitcoin-aligned residency investments.
A compliant, Bitcoin-native pathway into one of Europe’s strongest economies.
Private placements now open.1
To investors,
Yesterday Google became the fourth company in history to hit a $4 trillion market cap. They join Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft in this rare club of companies.
Nvidia became the first company ever to reach $4 trillion in July of this year, which was quickly followed by Microsoft crossing the same threshold in intraday trading on July 31st. The only problem is that Microsoft closed below $4 trillion that day and the company didn’t surpass the milestone again until last month, which is when they finally closed the trading day above the magic number of $4 trillion.
Apple followed closely behind and crossed the milestone in late October. This means we had never seen a single company reach a $4 trillion market cap, but all of a sudden we have four companies that pulled off the accomplishment in the last five months.
Welcome to the new world of business and finance.
The winners are worth more than you thought and the losers become irrelevant faster than you thought possible. So we must ask ourselves, what is driving the meteoric growth for these large tech companies?
There are a few drivers of valuation. First, these companies are producing insane amounts of revenue.
Apple revenue: $416 billion (+6%)
Google revenue: $385 billion +13%)
Nvidia revenue: $130 billion (+114%)
Microsoft revenue: $281 billion (+15%)
These numbers are ridiculous. Multi-trillion dollar companies growing double-digit percentages year-over-year and Nvidia more than doubling over the last 12 months.
But this is not only a story of top line revenue growth. These four companies are producing real free cash flow too.
Apple FCF: $98 billion
Google FCF: $73 billion
Nvidia FCF: $60 billion
Microsoft FCF: $78 billion
Investors look at a lot of data points to measure a company’s value, but nothing is more important than free cash flow and these companies are delivering on that metric.
This free cash flow is being used to do three big things: buyback shares, pay dividends, and make substantial CapEx investments in AI infrastructure. The first two uses of free cash flow are self-explanatory, but it is this third one that has everyone’s attention.
Google is projected to spend around $90 billion on CapEx this year and a significant portion will go to AI infrastructure for their cloud, search, and YouTube businesses. Microsoft is planning to spend around $80 billion with a big focus on AI-data centers and cloud infrastructure for training models, along with deploying AI and cloud applications.
Apple is taking a different approach. They plan to only spend $12.7 billion on CapEx, but majority of it is focused on first-party AI data center infrastructure and proprietary silicon. A big reason why Apple spends so much less on CapEx is their decision to use a hybrid model with third-party cloud providers for large compute demands.
And finally, Nvidia. They don’t spend CapEx on data centers or other traditional AI infrastructure. Instead, Nvidia is one of the big winners from all the CapEx spend by these large companies, because analysts believe Nvidia will capture 25-35% of the total $405 billion in AI-related infrastructure spending globally.
So this brings us back to the fact that four different companies have become $4 trillion companies in the last five months. That is only possible because of the large, addressable market of artificial intelligence. If you evaluate these companies through the rearview mirror of history, you may be worried about their future prospects. You will claim things are expensive or you will question the future durability of their demand.
But if you evaluate these companies as the winners of the largest addressable market of our lifetime, then you realize it is much more likely that each of these four companies are undervalued relative to their future financial performance. Take humanoid robots as a single example. Wall Street banks see the industry growing into a multi-trillion dollar juggernaut over the next 25 years, including a compound annual growth rate of 40-100% for the foreseeable future.
Companies are going to have to innovate on hardware and software to make those projections become a reality. This is noteworthy because humanoid robots are a net new industry. It didn’t previously exist, so that will be trillions of dollars in economic value up for grabs. And who do you think is going to capture some of it?
The largest, fastest-growing, most innovative companies in the world.
There will be plenty of startups that create brand new businesses, but one thing we have learned from the AI boom is that incumbents are very well positioned to benefit from this innovation period. And then there is the new US government support for the industry, which in turn is support for these large cap tech companies.
AI czar David Sacks tweeted yesterday “According to today’s WSJ, AI-related investment accounts for half of GDP growth. A reversal would risk recession. We can’t afford to go backwards.”
And then Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a television interview yesterday that the administration’s new Genesis Mission is “an all-in national effort to take the power of AI and pair it with the 40,000 outstanding scientists and engineers at our national labs.”
So you have a massive addressable market, tons of free cash flow, a government-driven tailwind, and monetary policy that is easing. What do you think is going to happen? You think stocks are going to enter a decade-long recession or bear market? Give me a break.
The era of $4 trillion companies is here. Eventually we will have $10 trillion companies. No one is going to stop the inevitable.
Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Matthew Siegel is the Portfolio Manager of the VanEck Onchain Economy ETF ($NODE), one of the most forward-thinking institutional products in the crypto ecosystem.
In this episode, we break down how major institutions are evaluating Bitcoin — from market structure and sentiment to what’s driving recent price action. Matthew shares the three indicators he uses to gauge Bitcoin’s direction, how he thinks about buying during volatility, and what he’s watching in crypto-linked public equities. We also dig into the broader digital-asset landscape — from smart-contract platforms to stablecoins and where he sees the strongest long-term opportunities.
Enjoy!
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-11-24 22:38:26
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To investors,
The Federal Reserve and the Board of Governors have a history of debating policy decisions behind closed doors, yet they almost always put on a united front when it comes time for their periodic vote on monetary policy. That is why it was such a big deal when two Fed Governors dissented at the same time back in July of this year.
Not one, but two Governors dissenting in the same meeting. We had not seen two Fed Governors dissent in the same meeting since 1993, so the rarity of the situation raised eyebrows. At the time, most people wrote off the anomaly as a politically driven outcome. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t seem to be a fan of Donald Trump and the two Fed Governors who dissented were Trump nominees.
The Fed is supposed to be independent, but if you believe that I have a bridge to sell you. The institution is made up of humans. Humans are biased. That bias doesn’t have to surface in a malicious or nefarious way, but every human is affected by their personal beliefs. That is how human nature works. No one, not even a central bank, is safe from it.
But now we are getting information that those two Governor dissents in July may have been the warning sign of things to come. Bloomberg’s Catarina Saraiva published an article over the weekend titled Fed Watchers Turn to Vote Counting as December Rate Drama Grows. In the article, Catarina writes:
“Division at the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent weeks, with officials staking out disparate positions ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell stays silent.
The drama was amped up Friday when New York Fed President John Williams, sometimes seen as a proxy for the Fed chief, signaled his support for a rate cut after several other policymakers came out leaning against one.
Powell himself hasn’t spoken publicly since the central bank’s last rate decision on Oct. 29. But a tally of recent remarks suggests the other voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are now nearly evenly split over what to do, all but ensuring some will vote against the Dec. 10 decision regardless of the outcome.”
These dissents are a big deal because they show cracks in the central banks’ armor. You can think of the constant dissents, especially from Fed Governors, as a very negative signal. There is no consensus. There is no peace. These dissents also highlight how difficult and complex the current economic environment is.
The recent disagreements are even more pronounced because Chairman Powell has done a good job driving consensus during his tenure, but that is all changing now.
This situation reminds me of the book Lords of Easy Money, which is the best break down of the Federal Reserve’s actions during the Global Financial Crisis.
The book is important because it lays out what many people are afraid to say in public: the Federal Reserve may have done more harm than good to the US economy in the last 20 years.
The book’s description states:
“If you asked most people what forces led to today’s unprecedented income inequality and financial crashes, no one would say the Federal Reserve. For most of its history, the Fed has enjoyed the fawning adoration of the press. When the economy grew, it was credited to the Fed. When the economy imploded in 2008, the Fed got credit for rescuing us.
But here, for the first time, is the inside story of how the Fed has reshaped the American economy for the worse…The Lords of Easy Money skillfully tells the fascinating tale of how quantitative easing is imperiling the American economy through the story of the one man who tried to warn us.”
That one man was Thomas Hoenig and he looks very smart in hindsight. So what did Hoenig do? His legacy is explained with the following:
“In the aftermath of the 2007 recession, Hoenig was thrust upon a national stage as he spoke out frequently about the financial crisis and its causes, as well as the response to the crisis in terms of both regulatory changes and monetary policy. He cast the lone dissenting vote against the FOMC’s easy money policies at each of the eight FOMC meetings in 2010 and was troubled by the FOMC’s stated promise of keeping the federal fund rates at a historic low for “an extended period.”
He also spoke out frequently about the large and systemically critical financial firms known as “too big to fail,” whose carelessness and mismanagement, he said, were a major cause of the crisis.”
With the benefit of hindsight, it is hard to argue that Hoenig was wrong. My guess is other people in the room disagreed with the decisions being made, but they chose loyalty to the Fed institution over loyalty to the American people. Today it looks like there are fewer Federal Reserve officials willing to make that mistake again.
If the Fed held their monetary policy vote today, instead of on December 10th, Jim Bianco believes the current split would be 7-5 in favor of another interest rate cut. That belief is supported by the approximately 63% odds being assigned by the market to a December rate cut.
Even Polymarket has the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in December at 95% right now.
But this rate cut decision is not going to happen for another four weeks. The vote won’t happen today. We have to wait until December 10th. That is a long time in financial markets. Data can change. Sentiment can change. And opinions can change. So you can’t rely on today’s information for a guaranteed outcome.
However, one thing that has been changing is the financial environment for the average American. They are in pain and want relief as fast as possible. Maybe a rate cut would help in some cases, but it may also create more pain in other cases.
MSNBC’s Kristen Welker asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday “how long do Americans need to be patient? How long do they have to wait for the cost of living to come down?”
Bessent responded with his views on the “three I’s.” He said:
“I talked about the three I’s that were killing Americans: immigration, interest rates and inflation. The president’s closed the border, and the mass immigration is gone. And that was putting – a lot of the immigration was putting upward pressure on housing, downward pressure on wages. Interest rates are down… So across the board, prices are starting to come down. We’re having Thanksgiving week. This will be the lowest cost for a Thanksgiving dinner in four years. Turkey prices are down 16%.”
This is ultimately the challenge of managing an economy. The Federal Reserve is slowly bringing down interest rates, while the Treasury Secretary and the Trump administration’s economic policy advisors are trying to address affordability on a national stage.
You can think of the Fed trying to pull the short-term lever and the rest of the government trying to pull long-term levers. It isn’t a perfect analogy, but it is closer to reality than people think.
There will never be perfect solutions to these problems. The global economy is a complex machine. No one can agree on what the data says, let alone how various decisions will impact the economy. Politics, monetary policy, and economic decisions are all intertwined now. And all eyes are on the Fed’s December rate cut decision.
My guess is the central bank will cut another 25 basis points. I don’t necessarily agree with that decision. My preference all year has been for a 50 basis point cut so we can quickly get to a sub-3% number for the cost of capital. That should provide relief for the average family, incentivize investment in R&D, and generally increase GDP to even more impressive levels of growth.
I don’t think there is any chance of us getting a 50 basis point cut, especially because the Fed is flying blind without some of the BLS data from recent months. So they will chicken out and continue slowly bringing down the Fed funds rate. But if they don’t cut interest rates for some reason, there will be chaos on Wall Street and markets will fall. The crowd knows we need cheaper capital, so the Fed is expected to deliver.
And market chaos is not something Jerome Powell and the Fed are willing to risk.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and produces deep-dive investing videos on YouTube.
In this episode, we unpack the latest market pullback — why prices are dropping, why investor fear has spiked, and whether this is the start of a bear market or simply a healthy correction.
We also break down asset performance, where Jordi sees opportunity, and the signals that could mark a reversal — plus a quick look at Bitcoin’s volatility and what it means for long-term investors.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.