2025-09-18 22:04:29
To investors,
As expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday. Chairman Jerome Powell held a press conference afterwards and he shared information that people on the internet have known for months.
Powell told us “in the near term, risks to inflation are to the upside and risks to employment are to the downside.” Take a listen:
Powell’s posture throughout the press conference seemed to be one of defeat. He did not appear excited to be there, nor did he seem enthusiastic about the challenge he faces.
A very big reason the Fed is in the current situation is because they went from being “data dependent” in past years to economic forecasters more recently. Rather than simply look at the data and manage monetary policy based on the current measurements, the Fed decided to get in the prediction game by anticipating high levels of inflation from tariffs.
As we now know, and as I predicted from the start, tariffs are not inflationary. The sky-high inflation the Fed thought was coming never showed up. This means their prediction was wrong and the monetary policy stance of keeping rates higher for longer was erroneous as well.
But things are even more complicated than they seem at the Fed. There is massive disagreement between the Fed’s Board Governors about where interest rates should be right now. Navy Federal’s Chief Economist Heather Long explains:
“This is wild. Look at the 19 Fed leaders' predictions for interest rates the rest of 2025. You can see the tension at the Fed in just 1 chart.
One wants to HIKE rates, Six think the Fed should keep rates the same, Two favor one additional cut, Nine favor two additional cuts, and then there's the one person (presumably Trump's latest appointee Stephen Miran) who wants the equivalent of five rate cuts by year-end. It's likely we'll get 2 more cuts. One in October and one in December. But you can see the battles ahead...”
Just think about how insane things. Someone wanted to HIKE interest rates yesterday. Someone else wanted to cut interest rates five times before the end of the year. Not only are people disagreeing on how many rate cuts to make, but they can’t even agree on whether we should be hiking or cutting rates.
This highlights the problem with human-led monetary policy. It is impossible to have individuals successfully manage the cost of capital because people are bad at making complex decisions. Add in the fact that we ask a committee of people to do it and you can see why it gets even harder.
Management by committee is a sure fire way to make bad decisions.
But if that wasn’t bad enough, look at this chart of interest rates since 2020. We have been all over the place. How is someone supposed to plan their life around such variability?
It is really hard to navigate the world if the cost of capital can go from 2% to 0% to over 5% and back down towards 4% in the span of 5 or 6 years. Just insane volatility when there doesn’t need to be.
Bitcoin’s monetary policy was set in 2009 and it hasn’t deviated from the programmatic monetary policy for a single second in more than 15 years. There are lessons for the Fed to learn from bitcoin in my opinion.
Lastly, remember the 25 basis point rate cut in 1998 helped kick-off an insane rally in tech stocks during the Dot Com Boom.
As Puru points out, the current situation is eerily similar. The Fed is cutting rates during an innovation boom related to artificial intelligence. If the central bank does multiple cuts this year, as they said they would yesterday, then we should expect stocks to fly higher.
The Fed is behind the curve. They chickened out yesterday and only did a 25 basis point cut. But it ultimately won’t matter for investors. Everything is going higher so just hold on to your assets and enjoy the ride.
Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Balaji Srinivasan is an entrepreneur and investor. He is also the author of the Network State and the founder of the Network School.
In this conversation, we talk about geopolitics, what is going on with China, US decline, why India is so important, bitcoin, gold, land, guns, and what is going on with the Network School.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-17 22:18:34
To investors,
Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are poised to make their first interest rate cuts of the year later today. Are they behind the curve? Of course. Have people lost confidence in the Fed? Obviously.
But we have finally arrived at the big day for the central bank to capitulate. They have been gaslighting the American people for months by predicting sky-high inflation, which was their main reason for not cutting rates.
But that prediction never came true. Inflation is much lower than they thought. Shelves are not empty. There was no recession or Great Depression.
Unfortunately, the labor market has deteriorated in the meantime though. We have seen sluggish payroll growth, coupled with recent downward revisions to employment data, so the Fed now has no choice but to cut rates. They can’t abandon one of their core mandates of ensuring maximum employment.
Let’s unpack the horrible, no good labor data right now:
July and August employment data came in under expectations
The recent job revision removed 900,000 jobs that previously were thought to have been created over the past year
Unemployment has been slowly ticking higher
June’s data showed an outright job loss for the first time since 2020
So the picture is very clear — the labor market is screaming at the Fed to cut rates immediately.
This brings us to the Fed’s second mandate of maintaining stable prices. Remember that concern they had about inflation? It was dumb. We never saw the runaway inflation they were worried about and we are not going to see it from the tariff policies.
Inflation, which is basically at 2% according to Truflation, is telling the Fed they have the green light to cut interest rates.
Now here is the thing…there are people who are worried a rate cut will drive inflation to concerning levels, but these people don’t realize how deflationary tariffs and artificial intelligence have been to the economy. The Fed can cut aggressively without worrying about inflation spiking.
So this brings me to how aggressive the Fed should be in their rate cut today. The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut. That’s an interest rate cut for ants. Let’s not play little kid games here. The Federal Reserve should cut 50 basis points and show the market they are serious about stimulating the economy.
This larger cut would immediately surprise the market into a bullish position, including stimulation to the job market. Companies would increase their spending on R&D. GDP would accelerate. And inflation would not increase because of the deflationary nature of tariffs and AI.
You don’t get the intended impact of interest rate cuts if you simply do what the market is expecting. The 25 basis point cut is priced in. The Fed needs to run a shock and awe campaign. Shake every nerd on Wall Street into believing the central bank is here to stimulate activity. Cut 50 basis points. Make the press conference a fireworks show.
Send the stock market shorts crying. And get the US labor market running hot again.
It is time to bring liquidity to the market, Jerome. Don’t let us down.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Mike Cagney is the Founder and Executive Chairman of Figure.
In this conversation we discuss taking Figure public, how block-chain native securities unlock new markets, the rise of DeFi, bitcoin backed loans, and how Figure is modernizing financial infrastructure.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-16 22:05:40
Bitizenship helps Bitcoiners secure EU residency and a path to Portuguese citizenship, without abandoning their long-term thesis.
Bitizenship Helps You:
✔ Unlock visa-free travel across Europe
✔ Secure residency with minimal physical presence
✔ Maintain Bitcoin exposure through a regulated structure
✔ Set up a future-proof Plan B for your family
✔ Gain one of the world’s strongest passports in 5 years
Time-Sensitive Update: Portugal may pass new citizenship rules within the near future, doubling the timeline to 10 years.
Lucky for you, there’s time to lock in the current law if you act now.
To investors,
The President’s son was on CNBC this morning talking about bitcoin. But Eric Trump wasn’t just talking, he was spreading the gospel of the digital currency. Take a listen to this:
It is not every day you hear someone with a direct line to the President say “bitcoin has become the truly greatest asset of our time.”
That sounds awesome, but the devil is in the details. First, Daniel Pico points out gold is outperforming bitcoin so far in 2025. Gold is up 40% and Bitcoin is only up 22%. Now some of you may be worried by this fact, but I wouldn’t jump to conclusions.
Gold outperformed earlier in the year, bitcoin eventually caught up and surpassed the gold performance, and then gold recently re-captured the lead in recent weeks. Why does this happen? Well, it appears that gold has become a leading indicator for bitcoin’s performance.
I shared this chart from Jack Green back in May. It shows that bitcoin tends to breakout and catch up to gold’s performance on an approximately 100 day lag. So when gold runs, bitcoin waits about 3-months and then quickly follows.
Given this dynamic, you can think of bitcoin as a coiled spring. The digital currency is waiting to thrust itself higher. Because of this, Timothy Peterson says “Bitcoin is having its worst bull market year ever.”
Plenty of bitcoiners are disappointed by this performance. Classic! Any other investor in the world would be ecstatic about a 23% annual return, but bitcoiners are used to significantly higher returns. They don’t want tens of percent, they want hundreds of percent and they want it every year.
I wouldn’t hold my breath for that level of performance though.
I do believe bitcoin is going higher through the end of the year. We have the interest rate cut that should occur this week, which will bring cheap capital into assets like bitcoin, and analyst Frank Fetter highlights the Bitcoin MACD is showing green for the first time in weeks.
The Bitcoin Moving Average Convergence Divergence, known as the MACD, is a momentum measurement that historically does a good job of showing when sentiment is flipping bullish. As the market becomes more excited, capital flows and bitcoin goes higher.
You don’t have to overthink everything. Sometimes it really is simple.
Lastly, Axel Adler points out the 3-year Bitcoin Risk Index is measuring at 23% right now.
The last time this index was so low for an extended period of time, we saw bitcoin rise from below $30,000 per coin to nearly $60,000 per coin. This happened between September 2023 and December 2023.
I am not saying bitcoin is going to double in price over the next 120 days, but I do think we are seeing numerous data points line up for bitcoin to go higher in the coming weeks. The bitcoin bull market is not over. There is still plenty of fun for people to have.
Just don’t expect this bull market to look like past ones.
Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Henrik Zeberg is the Head Macro Economist at Swiss Block.
In this conversation we talk about the macro outlook, K-shaped economy, inflation, a potential big tech bust coming, why the 4-year bitcoin cycle is not going anywhere, and what a monetary reset would look like.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-15 21:06:04
To investors,
Things are about to get very crazy across financial markets. Now I know there are plenty of people predicting the next recession is right around the corner, but they are simply wrong.
I am not sure if they are looking at bad data, drawing bad conclusions from good data, or some combination of the two. It doesn’t really matter how they are arriving at the wrong conclusion.
They are just flat out wrong.
Take the US stock market as one data point. Adam Kobeissi writes:
“The stock market is incredibly hot. Since 1975, there have only be 6 times where the S&P 500 rose +30% or more in 5 months. 2025 is one of those times. In 100% of these cases, the S&P 500 has ended higher in the following 6 and 12 months, per Carson Research. In fact, during such occurrences, the S&P 500 has rallied by an average of +18.1% in the following 12 months.”
Those are insane numbers. You want to bet against history? Be my guest. I like to think of financial markets similar to science though. Things in motion tend to stay in motion. Momentum is one powerful force.
But this is where things get interesting. If the stock market is growing by 30% in 5 months, there has to be someone getting richer, right? Who is holding all those stocks?
“Newly released data shows that US household net worth jumped by +$7.1 TRILLION in Q2 2025 alone. In other words, for 3-straight months, US households added an average of +$79 BILLION in net worth PER DAY….
As a result, the rich are getting much richer. Currently, the bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. In fact, the top 1% now holds $40 TRILLION more wealth than the bottom 50% combined.”
So to recap this situation, the stock market just drove historic returns over the last 5 months. It made rich people ever richer, while the bottom 50% of Americans were left sitting on the sidelines.
That isn’t the rich people’s fault. It is a financial education problem. In fact, I would argue we have a national crisis in this country until we figure out how to educate every student on personal finance and investing.
Asset owners will be winners and savers will be losers moving forward. You may not like it, but it doesn’t make it untrue.
This bull market is not close to over either. Mike Zaccardi writes “The average bull market lasts 70 months. We are about to complete month 35 of this one.”
That is a narrative violation, right? I know your pessimist neighbor isn’t telling you this data. But data is data and almost all of it points to the fact that we are in a bull market that has plenty of legs left.
This brings us to the Federal Reserve meeting this week, which should culminate in an interest rate cut.
Yes, they are going to cut rates with the stock market at all time high and the government inflation data measuring above 2.5%. We have never seen a situation like this before.
Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello points out the last time the Fed cut interest rates with inflation over 2.9% was in October 2008, “in the midst of the worst recession/bear market since the Great Depression.”
There are two big conclusions I have from this unprecedented move. First, the Fed is going to do this because of the labor market. Artificial intelligence has been a massive deflationary force in the US economy. Companies are figuring out how to be more productive and profitable with fewer employees.
But second, the Federal Reserve has been behind the curve for months. I believe the Fed should make a 50-75 basis point cut in interest rates so they can catch up to where they should be, but history suggests the Fed will avoid being bold in their decision.
Jordi Visser explained to me this weekend why he sees the odds of a 50 basis point cut increasing:
But let’s level set for a second. Polymarket odds are only 8% for a 50 basis point cut, which is very low compared to the 90% odds of a 25 basis point cut this week.
It ultimately is not going to matter whether the cut is 25, 50 or 75 basis points though.
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “The Fed last cut in December of 2024, so it'll be nine months between cuts. Waiting 5-12 months between cuts tends to be bullish for the S&P 500. Higher a year later 10 out of 11 times with above average returns should have bulls smiling.”
The Fed is going to push asset prices, from stocks to gold to bitcoin, to much higher levels. They can’t help themselves. They have to address the labor market issues or they will have a bigger problem on their hands.
Put aside the fact that the government’s data misled the Fed into believing inflation was much higher than it actually was. Ignore the fact the Fed has become a politicized organization that seems to be cheering against the current administration’s economic plans. And refrain from getting worked up about the Fed’s flip-flopping about being “data dependent.”
The central bank is now backed in a corner. They have to cut interest rates. Given asset prices are near all-time highs, we can only expect the newfound cheap capital coming into the market to push prices higher and higher in the coming weeks and months.
Get your rain boots on. Liquidity is coming. And investors will be very happy.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.
In this conversation we discuss Oracle going up 40%, what is going on in the stock market, what will happen with interest rates, job revision, AI, bitcoin, interest rates, and where asset prices could be headed.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-11 21:36:39
To investors,
Retail investors just got a massive win last night. Their activism campaign to enact change at Opendoor ($OPEN) was completed with the naming of a new CEO and two new board members.
For context, Opendoor went public via a SPAC in December 2020. The company saw its stock price decline down to $0.51 per share earlier this year. The negative performance can be attributed to a confluence of factors, including a tough interest rate environment, a revolving door of talent, and a lack of interest from investors.
But a relatively unknown hedge fund manager, Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital, came out with a price target of $82 per share in July. Yes, you heard that right. Eric Jackson called for a nearly 160x appreciation in the stock over the next few years.
This sounded insane at first. How the hell could that be a real thing someone could predict? But then retail investors started looking into the company. That diligence made it obvious the company was significantly undervalued. They were trading at a market cap of a few hundred million dollars, yet the company was doing billions in revenue, had recently turned a profit, and was holding a ton of real estate on their balance sheet.
So retail investors started buying the stock.
But retail wasn’t just buying the stock. They began bombarding the company with pressure to improve the business. Within weeks, the existing CEO had stepped down. The remaining management team committed to not sell any of their stock. And the interim leader of Opendoor personally purchased equity in the stock market.
Not bad for a loose group of random investors who were individually acting in their own self-interest, right?
Most activist investors would have been satisfied to get this much done in such a short period of time. Retail investors weren’t satisfied there though.
The pressure continued. They wanted a new CEO who understood artificial intelligence. They wanted Opendoor co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu back on the board of directors. And the retail investors were not going to rest until they got what they wanted.
Hundreds of tweets per day. Some nice, some not so nice. Just a relentless campaign to effect change at a business that these retail investors saw potential opportunity in.
Last night, the retail activism campaign became one of the most successful activism campaigns in recent history. Opendoor announced they have hired Kaz Nejatian, the COO of Shopify, to be the company’s next CEO. This is a very big win for Opendoor.
Kaz has been instrumental in building Shopify into one of the most disruptive technology companies in the world. He understands product, he understands technology, and he understands the importance of operating a lean, profitable business.
Opendoor also announced that Keith Rabois and Eric Wu would be re-joining the board of directors as well. Two more big wins. Keith and Eric are some of the world’s best entrepreneurs and investors. They bring the founder mentality and energy back to a company that desperately needs it.
So, to recap, retail activist have been able to effect significant change at Opendoor in approximately 60 days. They got the CEO to step down, they stopped management from dumping their stock, they helped find a killer new CEO, and they got their preferred directors into two of the board seats.
What an insane accomplishment in such a short period of time.
Again, this is probably the most successful activism campaign in recent history. It speaks volumes about the power of the retail movement. People can hate it. They can mock it. They can even try to fight it. But the retail investment crowd is a powerful force that is not going anywhere.
Financial markets have been changed forever. These individuals have real capital. They have access to information. And they are now emboldened to make their voice heard. We probably don’t fully understand the impact of this development, but it is important to keep watching.
Retail investors are going to become a larger part of the market. They are going to get better at what they are doing. Companies will have to come up with a retail investor strategy. If they don’t, the CEOs of these companies risk being the next executive under pressure from a group of investors who now have the track record of getting results.
Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Ric Edelman is the Founder of Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, and he is a New York Times #1 best seller of 13 different books.
In this conversation we talk about why financial advisors are finally getting excited about bitcoin, conversations they are having with their clients, the death of 60/40, gold, currency debasement, and why Ric has recommended having 10-40% exposure to bitcoin.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-10 20:36:42
Bitizenship helps Bitcoiners secure EU residency and a path to Portuguese citizenship, without abandoning their long-term thesis.
Bitizenship Helps You:
✔ Unlock visa-free travel across Europe
✔ Secure residency with minimal physical presence
✔ Maintain Bitcoin exposure through a regulated structure
✔ Set up a future-proof Plan B for your family
✔ Gain one of the world’s strongest passports in 5 years
Time-Sensitive Update: Portugal may pass new citizenship rules within the near future, doubling the timeline to 10 years.
Lucky for you, there’s time to lock in the current law if you act now.
To investors,
The general consensus across markets is the Fed will cut interest rates in September, which will drive bitcoin and other assets higher. Cut rates and bitcoin flies to the moon, right? Well, at least that is what everyone is saying on the internet.
But history tells a much more complicated story.
Binance Research just published a new study that shows the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting actions are not, by themselves, a reliable standalone indicator for Bitcoin's price movements.
Remember, data doesn’t care about your feelings or opinions. The numbers simply are what they are.
And Binance Research went deep into the data. They show that since Bitcoin entered the mainstream in 2014, the U.S. has experienced three major rate cut cycles. The study focuses only on the rate cut cycles of 2019 and 2024, because the 2020 rate cuts were driven by a one-off global pandemic.
So what happened in 2019 when interest rates were cut?
Bitcoin displayed a classic buy the rumor, sell the news pattern. In the months leading up to the rate cut, Bitcoin's price surged from approximately $4,000 to $13,000. However, once the cuts were actually implemented, the price declined.
2024’s interest rate cut was a little less clear. The significant price increase of bitcoin following the rate cut coincided closely with shifts in the U.S. election landscape, making it difficult to solely attribute the price movement to the rate cut itself.
So 2019 we saw bitcoin go down in price after a rate cut and 2024 brought a more difficult picture of what drove bitcoin’s price higher.
Binance Research then conducted two quantitative analyses, both of which indicate a lack of a stable and significant correlation between interest rates and Bitcoin's price.
The first compared the year-over-year change in the U.S. Federal Funds Rate with the year-over-year change in Bitcoin's price. This analysis revealed no obvious negative correlation.
The second analysis used interest rate futures market data to measure market expectations for future rate changes and analyzed their six-month correlation with Bitcoin's price. Again, The results show an extremely unstable relationship between these two, indicating that market expectations for rate changes can explain almost none of the linear volatility in Bitcoin's price.
So if interest rates aren’t driving bitcoin’s price, what is?
Well Binance Research shows that liquidity is the key to everything. They write “Historical data from a key indicator—the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)—shows a relatively clear negative correlation between the index's tightness and Bitcoin price volatility. The index has recently shown an upward turn, which warrants market vigilance.”
So while everyone is expecting an interest rate cut in September, don’t hold your breath for it to be the reason bitcoin goes up in price.
I am a bitcoiner. I think bitcoin is going higher. But after this Binance Research data, I’ll be watching all of this much more closely.
Hope you have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Ric Edelman is the Founder of Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, and he is a New York Times #1 best seller of 13 different books.
In this conversation we talk about why financial advisors are finally getting excited about bitcoin, conversations they are having with their clients, the death of 60/40, gold, currency debasement, and why Ric has recommended having 10-40% exposure to bitcoin.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.