2026-04-07 20:31:15
To investors,
The Age of Automation is upon us. I have been writing about it and tweeting about it for almost a decade. Take Bitcoin as an example. It is an automated central bank that continues to manage the most disciplined and transparent monetary policy in the world.
Even the skeptics have to admit that the idea has been adopted by hundreds of millions of people globally.
But now automation is going to come for the rest of finance. The recent tech innovations related to artificial intelligence will allow new financial firms to be built with armies of AI agents that replace hundreds of human employees.
I know this because I am actively building ProCap Financial, the first publicly traded agentic finance firm.
Our first product, called Silvia, has automated away many of the consumer finance functions at large institutions. Rather than hire lots of people, we are able to help thousands of multi-millionaires gain better insights into their portfolios leveraging the latest AI models and a suite of proprietary agents.
Silvia has more than $30 billion of assets on the platform in under a year. The average user has a net worth of at least $2.5 million and they ask Silvia about 18 questions per week. Like I said, the age of automation is upon us.
But we are not stopping at consumer finance. Our goal is to build a financial firm that automates the products and services from traditional players, but does it with AI agents in pursuit of helping independent investors make money.
With this perspective as context, I am happy to share that ProCap Financial is releasing it’s second product today: ProCap Insights.
ProCap Insights is the research division of the company, but it also happens to be the first agentic research shop on Wall Street. We only have one human overseeing the AI system being used to conduct research, write the analysis, and publish the reports.
I fundamentally believe the machines are smarter than the humans. AI is very good at finding hidden insights across financial markets. The same technology allows us to create research faster and cheaper than human teams too. This is what real automation looks like.
The big focus of ProCap Insights is to help you make money. Some of the initial research we are launching with includes:
You can read about the launch of ProCap Insights in the Wall Street Journal this morning: Click here. Or you can watch part of my segment from this morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box:
If you are looking for investment ideas and believe that AI is smarter than humans, you should consider subscribing to ProCap Insights. Anyone who subscribes in the next 48 hours will get grandfathered in at a 60% discount to the normal price.
We are laser-focused on helping independent investors make money. And the AI agents are helping us answer your questions via Silvia, or surface interesting investment ideas via Insights.
We will keep building even more.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-06 22:04:44
Memecoins are a multi-billion dollar asset class, and the infrastructure around them is maturing fast.
Moonshot, now part of the Jupiter ecosystem, is one of the most widely used mobile platforms for trading them, with over two million users and direct fiat on-ramps powered by MoonPay. Fund your self-custodial wallet in seconds using a card, Apple Pay, PayPal, or bank transfer. Every transaction settles on-chain. Every asset stays in your control.
Moonshot handles discovery and execution. MoonPay handles the money movement. Whether you allocate to memecoins or simply want to understand where retail attention is flowing, the infrastructure is already built.
To investors,
Jamie Dimon, CEO of the world’s largest bank, dropped his annual letter this morning and it is filled with noteworthy comments. Most interesting to me, Dimon decided to use the letter as a vessel for reinforcing the American values, while calling for a country-wide recommitment to the ideals that built the greatest nation on earth.
He writes now is “the perfect time to rededicate ourselves to the values that made this great nation of ours — freedom, liberty and opportunity.
The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China. Even in troubled times, we have confidence that America will do what it has always done — look to the values that have defined our singular nation and sustained our leadership of the free world.”
This optimistic message from one of the country’s most important business leaders comes in stark contrast to the mainstream media headlines in recent weeks. Those headlines make it sound like the world is ending and a catastrophic recession is right around the corner. Oil is spiking. Bombs are dropping. The Strait is closed. Gas prices are surging. And sky high inflation will be here any day now.
But a very different story emerges if you zoom out and actually look at the data. Simply, the conflict in Iran is not breaking the US economy. Instead, it is reinforcing just how dominant America has become.
Let’s start with the fact that the United States is no longer an energy-dependent country. According to the EIA, America has been an energy net exporter since 2019. That is a complete reversal from decades of vulnerability. There is a wide margin between what we export compared to what we import, which is mainly driven by the pesky detail that US crude production is running at roughly 13.6 million barrels per day.
This makes America the largest energy producer in the world.
Now does the US still import some crude oil? Yes, but that is mostly due to edge cases related to refining efficiency and logistics. What really matters is the net position and America exports far more petroleum products than it brings in. This is important to understand because when global energy prices rise, the US counterintuitively profits at the national level from the upside of higher energy prices.
This is a dramatic change from how these situations used to play out. If we go back to the 1973 oil embargo, the US was heavily dependent on foreign oil. Supply shocks led to long gas lines, soaring inflation, and a real hit to economic growth. Energy was a weakness and market commentators rightfully were worried. In the modern economy, energy is much closer to a strategic asset though.
Greg Ip explains in the Wall Street Journal how this new position of leadership atop the world of energy has empowered the current administration to make geopolitical moves that were previously thought unwise or impossible:
“Trump’s revamping of the U.S. role in world security and trade now extends to oil. No longer does the U.S. see itself as the guarantor of international stability and norms, but rather as a self-interested actor using control of oil to enhance its own power.
The U.S. became an energy superpower through serendipity and policy. The shale revolution vastly increased domestic oil and gas production, while federal and state policy and the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities made that output available to the world.
In the process, oil and gas became key contributors to U.S. economic growth and prestige. The U.S. earns more from exports of LNG than of corn and soybeans, and twice as much as it does on movie and TV content, S&P Global reports.
Fossil fuels are foundational to Trump’s vision not just of domestic prosperity but international clout. He created a National Energy Dominance Council shortly after taking office, and his National Security Strategy, issued last November, calls “American energy dominance” a “top strategic priority.””
But this is where investors really need to dig into the data. Even with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and oil pushing above $100, the impact on the US economy looks surprisingly contained. Estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs suggest that every $10 increase in oil prices reduces US GDP growth by about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points while adding a modest bump to inflation. That is not nothing, but it is manageable. Especially when you compare it to Europe or parts of Asia, where economies are still heavily dependent on imported energy and feel these shocks much more directly.
Now let’s zoom out to the broader economy and the resilience becomes even clearer. Forecasts still call for around 2.2 percent real GDP growth in 2026. That is slightly lower than earlier expectations, but it is nowhere near recession territory. Unemployment remains in the low 4% range. Consumer spending continues to be strong and nothing in the labor market suggests catastrophe is on the horizon.
Even the Federal Reserve is remaining calm and not signaling panic. The central bank’s expectation is that the conflict may nudge inflation higher, but it is unlikely to materially derail growth unless oil prices spike to extreme levels. Most Wall Street analysts view that as a low probability scenario.
This brings us to a very weird second-order effect from the current geopolitical uncertainty. While everyone is focused on the short-term impact to oil, gas, and potentially inflation, the United States is gaining immense leverage on the global stage.
I know it is not popular to talk about this, especially when we are still striking Iran, but it is essential to recognize what is happening so you can allocate capital appropriately for the coming years ahead.
America is now one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG and refined petroleum products. That gives us real economic and geopolitical power. Many of our European allies now rely heavily on American LNG and they are increasingly tied to US supply for their own stability. Higher global prices reinforce that relationship and accelerate the shift away from less reliable or hostile energy sources.
At the same time, the domestic US economy benefits from relatively abundant and cheaper energy. That matters more than people think and it is not something that is being widely covered. Manufacturing, data centers, and AI infrastructure all depend on consistent, affordable power. While other regions deal with higher input costs, the US remains better positioned to scale due to our lower sensitivity to the higher energy prices.
Before I get a barrage of responses saying to “look at gas prices!” or calling me an idiot, none of this analysis means there are no downsides. Of course there are downsides. Consumers feel higher gas prices at the pump in the short term. Sentiment goes down and discretionary spending gets tighter. These microeconomic factors are not immune to realities in commodities, but at the macro level the picture is much stronger than headlines suggest.
This is a classic case of macro vs micro economics. And it begs the question of what the administration is optimizing for? I don’t have that answer, but they have continued to say it is Main Street’s turn to enjoy economic abundance, because they believe Wall Street has captured enough. The problem with that statement is that you have to balance the nation’s economic health with the every day experience of American citizens who struggle to pay an extra dollar per gallon of gas each week.
This is where so much of the debate gets lost in my opinion. It is very easy to write articles about the price of gas or the promised impact on higher inflation reports that are yet to surface, but those details are unlikely to drown out the macro benefits accruing to the United States.
The Iran conflict is not exposing cracks in the system. It will not crash the US economy, nor will it deliver sky-high inflation similar to what we saw during COVID. Instead, the current situation is revealing just how much more resilient and dominant the American economy has become.
And over a long period of time, that is a great development for Americans even if we don’t feel it on a day-to-day basis.
Have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-03 23:12:24
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To investors,
Stock investors are throwing a party as we end the week. Markets have come back from the dead and snapped a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow gained 3.0%. People are not going to complain about green candles after weeks of red.
On the surface, it looks like risk appetite is back and Q2 is off to a strong start. But underneath the rally, the latest labor market data tells a more cautious story. That gap between what markets are doing and what the data is saying is where investors need to focus in my opinion.
The March jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000. This rebound from February’s decline of 133,000 has people excited for obvious reasons and it doesn’t hurt that the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.3% either. At first glance, this looks fine. But zoom out and the trend is clear. Hiring is slowing. The gains are concentrated in a handful of sectors like healthcare, construction, and logistics, while broader momentum remains weak.
For example, the ADP report earlier in the week showed just 62,000 private-sector jobs added, reinforcing the idea that businesses are becoming more cautious.
What we are seeing now is a classic late-cycle labor market. Companies are not aggressively hiring, but they are not rushing to fire workers either. Job openings are trending lower and workers are quitting less often. The labor market is essentially in a standoff where employees stay put and companies resist hiring.
This “low hire, low fire” environment signals a slowdown in demand, but thankfull yit is not a collapse. Investors have to pay attention to the subtle shift because the labor market sits at the center of the economy. It drives consumer spending, corporate earnings, and ultimately the Fed’s monetary policy.
At the same time, this slowdown is happening at the same time as rising geopolitical risk. The bombing of Iran has pushed energy prices higher, which increases the odds of short-term inflation. So now the Fed has a problem on their hands.
Structural deflation is swallowing the economy. Short term inflationary pressures are showing up. The stock market is volatile. And the central bank has to figure out what to do. They can’t cut rates if inflation is going to spike, but they can’t let the labor market fall off a cliff either. This tension between slower growth and sticky inflation is one of the most important dynamics I am watching right now.
So this brings us back to stocks and why they are rallying in the face of this mixed data? The answer is simple….markets are forward-looking.
Investors are betting that the current softness will eventually lead to policy support. If the labor market weakens further, the Fed will be forced to ease. If geopolitical tensions stabilize, energy prices could come down and diminish inflationary pressures. On top of that, there is still a belief that corporate earnings, particularly in technology, can remain resilient.
Basically investors are calling the bluff of the doomsday predictors. They are voting with their dollars and clearly saying they believe things are going to turn around through the rest of the year.
This is what a “climb the wall of worry” market looks like. Stocks move higher even as the data becomes more fragile. You have to remember, we are not in a recession. But we are also not in a clean growth environment. We are in the messy middle, which is where narratives shift quickly and investors who can ignore the noise tend to do well over the long run.
This is where discipline becomes critical. Companies with strong balance sheets, durable demand, and real pricing power tend to outperform in this type of environment. These businesses can absorb higher costs and navigate slower growth better than their peers. At the same time, interest rates will remain a key variable.
If labor market weakness continues, rate cuts come back into focus, which tends to benefit long-duration assets like growth stocks. But if energy-driven inflation persists, the Fed may stay tighter for longer, which changes the situation materially.
I don’t want to ignore the energy situation, but it is important to put in context too. Higher oil prices are not just a macro headline. They directly impact inflation expectations, consumer behavior, and corporate margins. In many ways, energy exposure becomes both a risk and a hedge depending on how geopolitical events unfold. This adds another layer of complexity to portfolio construction.
So the one thing I feel very confident in is that volatility will remain elevated. This is not a smooth, trending market. Sharp pullbacks driven by fear can offer attractive entry points, while strong rallies can be used to take profits and manage risk. The key is to avoid reacting emotionally and instead focus on the underlying fundamentals of stocks, gold, bitcoin, and other assets.
The bottom line is that the labor market is screaming a specific message to whoever will listen. It is not strong, but it is not breaking either. The market, for now, is choosing to be optimistic, which I think is a no brainer decision.
But that optimism depends on hiring stabilizing, inflation staying under control, and geopolitical tensions easing in the coming weeks. If any of those variables shift in the wrong direction, then the current rally could quickly lose momentum.
You have to be a critical thinker going forward. The easy gains from broad exposure are behind us. The edge now comes from understanding second-order effects. Slower hiring today can mean easier policy tomorrow. Higher energy prices can delay that easing. No one has a crystal ball. But if you think hard enough, you can start to connect the dots.
Lots of people are nervous or confused right now. I am excited and see tons of opportunity all over the market. And my bet is that pessimists sound smart, but they rarely make money.
Let’s see what happens. Have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck and portfolio manager of the NODE ETF.
In this conversation, we discuss why he’s turning more bullish on bitcoin, how AI and energy are driving new investment opportunities, and why bitcoin miners are emerging as key players in the AI boom. We also explore risks around AI Capex, geopolitics, and how he’s positioning across crypto and equities.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-02 22:30:12
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To investors,
Most capital allocators were freaking out one year ago. The President of the United States levied tariffs on the world economy in early April 2025, which sent markets into a chaotic and turbulent period. Pessimists promised you sky-high inflation, empty shelves, and the next Great Depression.
None of that happened though.
Instead, the stock market went up 16%, home prices went down, and hundreds of billions of dollars poured into America via foreign investment. But most importantly, we never got the sky-high inflation, which objectively disproves the academic theory that tariffs are inflationary.
If you recall, I was one of the lone voices banging the drum that tariffs would be deflationary. Here is the piece that I wrote last April titled “Welcome to the Tariff Era — The Truth about US Tariffs.” If you haven’t read it, I highly suggest you do.
I argued in the piece that past tariffs had led to lower prices of goods domestically, rather than higher prices. I analyzed the 2018 tariffs and their impact on steel, washer machines, and solar panels. For all three products, prices were lower within 18 months than they had been pre-tariffs. I predicted we would see many of the same things start happening across the US economy.
Fast forward to today and we are now starting to see some of the results one year later. Natasha Khan just wrote a piece for the Wall Street Journal explaining how Sharpie, the maker of your favorite markers, has figured out how to manufacture their products at a lower cost by re-shoring their manufacturing. The best part is they have been able to do this without having to fire employees or raise consumer prices.
Narrative violation.
But we are not just seeing lower prices in tariffed goods. Truflation reported their latest data for the start of April and it serves as a check against the current mainstream consensus. The company writes:
“The US inflation index went down quite significantly today from 1.77% to 1.26%.
Truflation CPI often shows larger monthly shifts on the 1st of each month because multiple data providers update their data. This time, the shift is downwards and unusually strong, highlighting multiple sticky deflationary trends across major categories, while gasoline prices continue to go up and have driven inflation higher over the past month.
Main drivers of this renewed deflationary wave:
Transport (-0.17%) - Used and New car price inflation is decreasing despite being offset by the Gasoline prices going up.
Food (-0.10%) - Food at home and Food away from home inflation is dropping.
Utilities (-0.10%) - Natural Gas prices are declining.
Housing (-0.09%) - Prices are dropping across all 3 sub-categories: Rented, Owned, and Other Lodgings.”
Now I know many people are skeptical of Truflation, but I continue to believe it is the single most valuable and accurate measurement of real-time inflation in the United States. They use over 14 million data points coming from over 40 independent data providers. Is it perfect? Probably not. But it is definitely more accurate than the CPI calculation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Plus, Truflation has a 98% correlation to CPI, with CPI having a one-month lag. The reason this is important right now is because Truflation is telling us that the short-term impact from rising oil and gas prices is not going to be as pronounced on inflation as everyone is predicting.
Let me explain what I mean. Gas prices are now over $4 per gallon in the US. The media will rightfully call out the potential economic pain from this development, but there is some important nuance that you won’t read in the headlines.
You are going to read that every visit to the pump costs more, small businesses get squeezed, shipping prices rise, and that flows into everything from groceries to Amazon orders. This is all true and unfortunately these negative impacts hit lower-income households the hardest.
But $4 gas is not going to derail the US economy.
Most people are stuck in the 2008 mindset, but thankfully that is not the world we live in anymore. Cars are more fuel-efficient, EV adoption is growing, wages are higher in nominal terms, and the economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be.
On top of this, America is producing more oil than ever, so high oil prices incentivizes more investment and it creates more jobs domestically. These may not be exciting consolation prizes, but they are factual ramifications from high prices.
So what is likely to actually happen from these higher prices at the pump?
We probably don’t experience a big crash directly from high gas prices. Instead, we see a slow bleed across markets. Consumers pull back a little, sentiment weakens, and politicians start sweating. But $4 gas alone isn’t enough to break the economy.
The real danger is stacking negative economic trends. If high gas combines with sticky inflation, high rates, or a weakening job market then that’s when things could quickly unravel. If we don’t get the combination of factors, most of the headlines will be overdone.
So for right now, the biggest impact of high gas prices is not economic, but rather psychological. This brings us back to the recent Truflation data and the example of Sharpie. The structural setup for the US economy right now has deflation as a much bigger risk than inflation. The headlines are screaming about high oil prices, and the ensuing high gas prices, but the situation has not changed in the medium-to-long term.
Don’t get distracted. Tariffs, deportations, AI, and robotics are going to last longer than high oil prices. And those trends will matter much more for your portfolio over the next few years.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
Join myself and Chris Kline, Co-Founder of BitcoinIRA, for a FREE live webinar on how the right tax structure can change your financial life.
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Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck and portfolio manager of the NODE ETF.
In this conversation, we discuss why he’s turning more bullish on bitcoin, how AI and energy are driving new investment opportunities, and why bitcoin miners are emerging as key players in the AI boom. We also explore risks around AI Capex, geopolitics, and how he’s positioning across crypto and equities.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
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2026-03-30 22:32:52
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To investors,
The word “SaaSpocalypse” has gone viral on Wall Street. Since September of last year, the S&P North American Technology Software Index has shed 32% of its value. That is a BIG drop for just a few months.
Salesforce is down more than 26%. Adobe has lost 20%. Dozens of mid-cap SaaS names have been cut in half. If you have been watching enterprise software stocks lately, you have been watching a sector get completely repriced. And if you have been an investor holding these stocks, your portfolio has not been fun to look at.
But what if everyone panics and gets ready to dump their positions at the bottom of the drawdown? What if the worst is behind us?
I don’t have a crystal ball, nor am I trying to call the bottom here, but here is what a contrarian would argue right now: the market has overreacted, the dominant narrative is factually broken, and investors who buy right now may be staring at some of the best entry points in a decade.
Before we talk about what could happen in the future, we have to unpack how we got here.
The pain arrived in two distinct waves. The first was macroeconomic. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace in history during 2022, long-duration assets got crushed.
There are very few assets that carry more duration than a fast-growing software company with cash flows priced ten years into the future. For example, the Bessemer Cloud Index saw its median public SaaS revenue multiple crater from an all-time peak of 18.4x forward revenue in September 2021 to roughly 6x by early 2026. That alone was a brutal reset.
Just that metric saw a 65% decrease by itself.
The second wave of pain was structural though. Frankly, this one was far more alarming to investors. The best way to understand it is that the rise of AI agents introduced what analysts now call “seat compression”: the idea that a single AI agent can perform the work of multiple employees, so enterprises need fewer software licenses.
Atlassian saw its stock plunge 35% after reporting its first-ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Whoops! Workday announced layoffs of 8.5% of its workforce and directly cited AI as one of the contributing factors. If those examples weren’t bad enough, the January 2026 CIO survey found IT budget growth was expected to be only 3.4%.
Most analysts argue that a big portion of budget growth was withheld because dollars are being rerouted toward more than $660 billion in planned hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending. That is obviously a big number. And when the market sees a big number attached to a scary prediction, they panic quickly.
That is exactly what happened earlier this year. A good example is when price-to-sales multiples compressed from 9x down to roughly 6x in a matter of weeks. For context, these are levels we have not seen since the mid-2010s.
But here is the thing, the sell-off in software stocks has not been uniform.
There is a bifurcation between AI infrastructure software and traditional application software. Palantir surged 135% in 2025 because they saw 121% year-over-year growth in their US commercial revenue. Palantir also gave fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $7.2 billion, which was a number substantially higher than analyst expectations. Good companies, with real growth, can buck nearly any trend.
Other examples include Microsoft Azure crossing $50 billion in quarterly revenue and still growing 39% year-over-year. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure grew 84% in a single quarter and then told the market they had a $553 billion backlog. It is very hard to argue that a company is not going to be more valuable in the future when it claims to have half a trillion dollars of backlog.
Now let’s compare this to what happened on the other side of the market. A painful example has been Salesforce. They have lost more than a quarter of their market cap. Adobe’s forward price-to-earnings multiple has compressed to roughly 10x, even though the company is still growing revenue at 12% annually. This low of a multiple usually implies a business is in terminal decline.
CrowdStrike may be an even more confusing example. They are widely thought of as a structural winner in cybersecurity, yet they trade 20% below their five-year average price-to-sales multiple despite a dominant market position that grows more critical with every AI deployment. My big takeaway from these examples is that the market is treating all non-infrastructure software as damaged goods. This is where a contrarian would argue the market is making a mistake.
So what is going on here?
The prevailing bear thesis assumes that AI will displace SaaS. The pessimists believe that companies, particularly large enterprises, will stop paying for software subscriptions as AI agents absorb the workload. Could that be true? Sure. Is it the obvious conclusion from the current facts? Absolutely not.
A contrarian would argue this logic has a fatal flaw because the incumbents are not standing still. They are building the AI layer themselves, including their advantageous use of two decades of proprietary enterprise data, customer relationships, and distribution that no startup can replicate overnight.
Basically, incumbents only get disrupted if they don’t disrupt themselves first.
Let’s go back to Salesforce. Their Agentforce AI agent platform hit $800 million in annual recurring revenue in fiscal 2026, which they report is up 169% year-over-year. That platform is now shifting to a consumption-based, outcome-driven pricing model. If it works and continues to scale, it will be hard for a startup to compete with Salesforce’s distribution advantages.
Another one to pay attention to is ServiceNow’s generative AI suite (Now Assist). They reported crossing $600 million in annual contract value and are on pace for $1 billion by year-end. It is hard to ignore $1 billion in contract value.
Then let’s not forget Microsoft, the big dog of software. They launched a new M365 enterprise tier priced at $99 per user per month, which is 65% above its prior top-tier plan, with the hopes of capturing AI value directly through their existing install base.
So the bears may be loud right now, but these examples are not threats to the SaaS business model. Instead, they are the SaaS business model evolving into something more powerful and benefitting directly from the AI tech trend.
Another important point here is that many of these companies are switching from an individual license revenue model to a consumption-based pricing model. The idea is to charge a customer by tasks completed or outcome delivered, rather than by user seat. This business model evolution combined with the fact that enterprise software spending is projected to grow 15% this year, makes it more difficult for the people predicting the demise of software stocks.
The companies best positioned to capture this increased spend are the ones with the enterprise relationships, compliance infrastructure, and workflow integration that incumbents already own. Bain & Company’s own research confirms that customers overwhelmingly prefer to buy AI-enabled solutions from their existing vendors. This is common sense. Companies will buy from people they know and brands they trust, as long as the technology and cost are competitive.
So what has to happen for the bears to be wrong and software stock investors to be happy again?
This is where things get a little complicated. There is no magic bullet. Instead, investors are going to need a few things to go right. First, AI monetization must cross a credibility threshold. Confidence in Salesforce returns if Agentforce revenue surges north of $1 billion ARR. ServiceNow needs Now Assist to clear $1 billion in ACV. Microsoft needs to demonstrate that Copilot is lifting average revenue per user in a sustained, measurable way. Those data points, which could arrive as early as the second half of this year, will shift the market narrative from “AI is disrupting SaaS” to “SaaS is monetizing AI.”
The second thing that needs to happen is various enterprise IT budget data sources must confirm net expansion in software spend despite seat compression. This would be the most concrete way to disprove the bear thesis.
Lastly, stability in the macro environment is going to matter. If interest rates go up, that is going to cause more pain. But if rates stay flat, or even continuing being cut, then I would expect some of the multiple-compression headwinds to dissipate. This would then allow a true re-rating upwards to begin.
So if the bears are wrong on these software stocks, how much money could an investor potentially make going forward?
The good news is that valuation multiples across popular, quality software names is the most compelling it has been in years. Microsoft trades at roughly 24x forward earnings with 14% annualized earnings growth expected. The median Wall Street price target is $600, which is about 50% higher than the current share price.
Cloudflare has a similar situation. They have a median analyst target of $245, which would be about 40% higher from current prices. Snowflake, who is still growing revenue 29% year-over-year, trades at 13x price-to-sales, yet the consensus target implies 43% upside. These are not small numbers and I am not even talking about the highest analyst targets.
But if you really want asymmetry, a contrarian would argue Adobe is perhaps the most asymmetric setup. They currently trade around 10x forward earnings with double-digit revenue and earnings growth. As mentioned, the market is pricing structural decline into a company that is still compounding. If Adobe reverted to a normalized 25x multiple, that would imply approximately 150% upside before accounting for any earnings growth.
There is example after example across the public markets of these situations. Analysts at multiple firms are projecting 40–50% upside merely from multiple expansion alone for quality software names that execute on AI monetization. That is before you layer in the earnings growth trajectory that would likely follow from a successful embracing of the new technology.
Remember, the SaaSpocalypse is so overdone that the narrative assumes the industry is being disrupted into irrelevance. The data is telling a very different story though. Maybe the SaaS companies aren’t being disrupted from the outside, but they are evolving internally into something more valuable, with higher revenue per customer, lower marginal delivery costs, and a total addressable market that is tripling over the next four years.
If that is the case, the entry price for these companies has been put on a flash sale thanks to investor fear in recent weeks. The big question is whether the fear will have been warranted in hindsight.
I hope all of you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Join myself and Chris Kline, Co-Founder of BitcoinIRA, for a FREE live webinar on how the right tax structure can change your financial life.
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✅ The accounts high earners actually use
✅ Live Q&A with Pomp
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Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss rising inflation, higher oil prices, and why he believes markets are entering a new regime driven by supply shocks and geopolitical risk. We also explore asset rotation into commodities, risks in private credit, and bitcoin’s growing role as liquidity and capital flows shift globally.
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Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-03-27 22:17:47
Are you ready to seize the day that will change your life, guaranteed? You invest in wealth creation every day, but what’s the point of it without an optimal healthspan?
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Use code POMP and receive $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call.
To investors,
For most of its early life, Bitcoin was easy to dismiss as a side-show that traded in its own little corner of the financial universe. It moved when it wanted to, crashed when it felt like it, and paid no attention to what the S&P 500, Treasury bonds, oil, or gold were doing. That uncorrelated reputation was a big part of Bitcoin’s appeal to early adopters. Then the world changed and Bitcoin seems to have changed with it.
From 2015 through 2019, Bitcoin’s correlations with every major asset class hovered close to zero. Against the S&P 500, it barely registered at 0.03 to 0.05. Against bonds, oil, and gold, the picture was equally flat. This was Bitcoin in its purest “digital gold” phase, a volatile niche asset largely owned by retail speculators and idealists who weren’t plugged into broader market cycles. When equity markets rallied or sold off, Bitcoin shrugged. The asset existed in a world of its own.
Frankly, it was awesome because bitcoin was as independent as a financial asset can be. That independence wasn’t just a quirk. It made Bitcoin genuinely useful from a portfolio theory standpoint. An asset that moves independently of everything else is valuable precisely because it can reduce overall portfolio risk, regardless of whether it goes up or down. During this period, the correlation argument for holding Bitcoin was actually quite compelling.
The pandemic is where the story gets interesting. COVID-19 broke the correlation spell. When markets crashed in March 2020, Bitcoin got caught in the same liquidation wave that swept through equities, commodities, and credit. Investors needed cash, so they sold everything that was attached to a liquid market. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 jumped from near zero to about 0.47 almost overnight.
What followed was arguably more telling. As central banks flooded the system with liquidity and markets recovered, Bitcoin exploded higher. But this seismic move happened in lockstep with the tech-heavy Nasdaq and risk-on equities. The correlation with SPY kept climbing and eventually reached 0.55 to 0.65 between 2021 and 2022.
Bitcoin essentially got absorbed into the macro trade. It was no longer a separate asset class because it evolved into a high-beta version of risk-on sentiment. A new type of investor was holding the asset at this point, which meant that the asset traded much differently.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 was a watershed moment. Bitcoiners and Wall Street institutions were literally celebrating at the achievement of this previously unthinkable milestone. But the Bitcoin bulls should have been careful what they wished for.
Institutional capital flooded in and with it came traditional Wall Street thinking, which meant the differentiation in trading behavior between various assets started to evaporate. Portfolio managers who run models, allocate across asset classes, and rebalance mechanically now owned Bitcoin. That meant when they sold equities, they often sold Bitcoin too. The idealists had essentially lost ground to the mercenary hedge funds.
Today the BTC-SPY correlation sits around 0.49, which is similar to where it ended 2025. Rolling short-term correlations have spiked as high as 0.88 during volatile stretches. Regardless of what your favorite Bitcoin believer tells you, the digital currency is trading like a true risk asset. That’s important for anyone who bought it believing it would zig when stocks zagged. The opposite has happened and correlations only grew stronger.
On the other hand, bonds and oil tell a boring story.
The bonds story is short because there isn’t much of one. We can use TLT as the example. Bitcoin’s correlation with long-duration Treasury bonds has been close to zero throughout its history, sitting at roughly -0.01 today. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and bonds are risk-off, but the relationship is too inconsistent and too weak to use strategically.
Oil has followed a similar trajectory. Binance Research’s 10-year study found no significant long-term relationship between Bitcoin and crude prices. Short-term spikes occur, but they snap back. The long-run correlation remains around 0.15, which is weak enough to be effectively meaningless.
The gold relationship is where things have gotten genuinely strange in 2026. Through most of its history, Bitcoin carried a small positive correlation with gold, typically between 0.10 and 0.35. The idea was these two assets reflected shared sensitivity to dollar weakness and inflation fears. That narrative fueled years of “digital gold” marketing. But just look at this chart:
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has fallen apart. Gold had surged higher as a geopolitical safe haven last year, while Bitcoin sold off. This meant the two assets were moving in almost opposite directions. This marked one of the only times in history these two store-of-value assets had a negative correlation.
The trend has only continued this year. The BTC-gold correlation is -0.69 right now, which is the sharpest divergence on record. The only difference is that since the February 28th bombing of Iran, gold has been selling off and bitcoin has been appreciating in price. Even though these assets switched their direction of travel, the negative correlation still persists.
So what can we take away from this data?
First, Bitcoin has grown up and been adopted by larger pools of capital. This newfound investor base doesn’t discriminate. They have pulled Bitcoin into the risk-on / risk-off regime they are used to navigating. Bitcoin is simply along for the ride now.
Bitcoin has become more integrated with the financial system. It is more responsive to macro conditions. And unfortunately, Bitcoin is considerably less useful as a diversifier. Whether that’s a feature or a bug depends entirely on what you wanted it to be.
There will always be hardcore Bitcoin believers that will never sell the asset, regardless of what happens in the market. But I am more convinced every day that a lot of the Bitcoin selling from OGs last year was driven by people realizing the renegade asset they once bet their net worth on is gone. What is left is a slightly more volatile digital currency that hopes to continue pulling in more capital in the coming years.
Have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Join myself and Chris Kline for a FREE live webinar on how the right tax structure can change your financial life.
We’ll cover Bitcoin’s role in a modern portfolio, tax-advantaged account strategies, and what investors should be thinking about right now.
Learn about:
✅ How taxes quietly destroy wealth
✅ The accounts high earners actually use
✅ Live Q&A with Pomp
Don’t miss the opportunity to get your questions answered directly by myself and Chris Kline!
Mike Selig is the 16th Chairman of the CFTC and a leading voice on the future of financial market regulation in an era defined by crypto, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets.
In this conversation, we discuss how regulators are balancing innovation with investor protection, the evolving relationship between the SEC and CFTC, and why emerging technologies are reshaping how risk is taken and managed across global markets. We also explore the rise of decentralized finance, AI-driven trading, and new policy initiatives aimed at keeping the United States competitive in the next generation of financial infrastructure.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.