2026-06-08 22:33:08
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To investors,
The market is preparing for a ridiculous melt-up in asset prices. At least that is what history tells us is likely to happen over the next year.
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months. You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later. In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.”
This type of return would have been unfathomable just a few weeks ago when everyone was freaking out over the Iran war, but things can change rapidly in a digitally-connected world where capital and information move at the speed of light.
For example, only 34 times in history has the S&P 500 has gone down 2% in a single day following a 10%+ move over the preceding 13 weeks. Over the next 12 months, the stock market was higher 29 of the 34 times and the average return over the next year was 17%.
An easy way to see the ramifications of this volatility is through the misunderstanding of stock market returns. You will hear people constantly quote the S&P 500’s average return around 8%, but the truth is the index has done significantly better than that.
Creative Planning’s Peter Mallouk highlights “the S&P 500 has returned an average of 12% per year since 1980 and has done so despite an average intra-year drawdown of 14%, and often drawdowns that are much worse.”
There are various reasons for the outperformance, including persistently higher inflation, rapid innovation in the economy, and a larger number of investors with access to the stock market. Regardless of the root cause, there is incredible wealth being created by public equities and history is telling us to prepare for even better returns over the next 12 months.
Momentum is not the only thing telling us a melt-up is coming. Charlie Bilello shows “S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 25% this year.” He says “we’ve never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.”
We are seeing signs of a market melt-up outside of public equities as well. For example, Benjamin Cowen shows the bitcoin market has just hit an important bear market milestone where the supply of bitcoin held at a loss has become a larger percent of the market than the supply of bitcoin held at a profit.
He writes “you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before.”
If this signal holds the historical accuracy, it would show the most pure macro asset (bitcoin) is near a bear market bottom, which would likely produce significant returns over the next 12-24 months.
Whenever I see multiple markets lining up for potential explosive returns, I start to pay attention. Add in the backdrop of Kevin Warsh stepping in as the new Federal Reserve Chairman with the explicit focus on lowering interest rates and you have all the ingredients you need for the market to melt up.
The bears will disagree, which is fine. That is how markets are made. But stocks are going higher because AI is real and the dollar is fake. There really is no other way to put it.
I hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
P.S. Go Knicks! :)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is down 50% and whether the bear market is over, why he's still buying through the dip, how AI agents will drive bitcoin adoption, and why the rotation from AI hardware to human software is the biggest investment opportunity right now.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
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Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
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You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
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2026-06-06 02:05:06
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To investors,
Michael Saylor and Strategy have purchased over 840,000 bitcoin in the last half decade. In pursuit of accumulating as many bitcoin as possible, the Strategy team has innovated on a number of capital market tools.
Their most recent offering, STRC, is a preferred equity instrument that pays a double-digit variable interest rate. Proceeds from the preferred equity raises are allocated to a bitcoin reserve and a dollar reserve. The idea is that bitcoin’s price will appreciate at a faster pace than the dividend obligation, which gives Strategy common equity holders exposure to the difference.
Saylor has coined this idea as “digital credit” and there have been billions of dollars allocated to the preferred equity instrument in less than a year. As we know, when something works on Wall Street, there are fast followers who rush to capitalize on the trend.
In this case, Matt Cole and Strive Asset Management have been the big winners of second place. They came to market with a similar instrument, except they pay a higher interest rate and are implementing daily dividend payments. You can imagine why this has been attractive for investors.
I am fascinated by the idea of digital credit. If Saylor and Cole are right, we will see an explosion of digital credit offerings that leverage bitcoin to create returns, while stripping out the bitcoin volatility for fixed income investors. The global credit market is very big and if digital credit works, you could expect hundreds of billions of dollars to flow to the assets.
But this idea does not come without risk. The big question is what happens if bitcoin doesn’t appreciate at the required CAGR, but there are also nuanced aspects of managing the issuance process, along with the bitcoin and cash reserves, that require investors to underwrite potential risks.
In order to better understand digital credit and the risks associated with this new innovation, I sat down with Strive CEO Matt Cole for an unfiltered conversation. He was very transparent about the pros and cons, how Strive and Strategy differ, and why he thinks this idea is even bigger than his team realized initially.
You can listen to the conversation here or you can watch it here on YouTube.
If you do not have time to listen or watch, here are the 10 big ideas from the conversation:
Cole’s biggest thesis is that digital credit is not merely a financing tool but a transitional asset that helps investors move from a fiat-based world to a Bitcoin-based future.
He believes sovereign debt problems will continue to worsen over time, making Bitcoin increasingly attractive.
Digital credit allows investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation while receiving income and avoiding some of Bitcoin’s volatility.
Strive raises capital through preferred equity instruments that pay investors a yield.
The company then buys Bitcoin with the proceeds.
The entire strategy works if Bitcoin appreciates faster than the cost of capital being paid to investors.
Cole frames this as a simple spread trade: if Bitcoin compounds above the financing cost, common shareholders benefit substantially.
Cole argues that traditional fixed income has become increasingly unattractive.
Many investors agree the classic 60/40 portfolio is no longer as effective as it once was.
He believes digital credit could become a compelling replacement for part of the bond allocation because it offers double-digit yields while maintaining exposure to Bitcoin-driven economics.
One of Strive’s innovations is moving from monthly dividends to daily dividends.
Cole believes this reduces volatility around dividend dates and makes the instrument behave more like a savings account or money market fund.
His goal is to make digital credit feel like a continuously compounding income-generating asset rather than a traditional security with periodic payout events.
Cole acknowledges there are many disclosed risks, but he views one risk as dominant: Bitcoin failing to appreciate over a very long period.
He explains that Strive has substantial cash reserves and dividend reserves specifically designed to survive severe Bitcoin bear markets.
In his view, investors must ultimately decide whether they believe Bitcoin’s long-term thesis remains intact.
Cole repeatedly emphasizes that he personally prefers owning Bitcoin and leveraged Bitcoin exposure.
However, he recognizes most investors cannot emotionally or financially tolerate Bitcoin’s volatility.
Digital credit offers those investors a way to participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem while receiving stable income and experiencing significantly lower volatility.
Cole argues that Strategy’s decision to sell a small amount of Bitcoin was misunderstood.
Rather than viewing it as surrender, he sees it as evidence of disciplined capital allocation.
He believes the ability to occasionally sell Bitcoin for tax optimization or strategic purposes ultimately strengthens the company and reduces long-term risk.
Cole believes both Bitcoin ETFs and digital credit products are still building track records.
He notes that institutions typically require several years of performance history before making meaningful allocations.
He expects adoption to accelerate significantly between 2027 and 2029 as institutions become more comfortable with the products.
One of the most forward-looking parts of the discussion focuses on tokenization.
Cole envisions a future where digital credit is tokenized, pays near-continuous dividends, and integrates with debit cards, banking products, and payment systems.
In that world, people may increasingly hold digital credit rather than cash, effectively creating a new form of financial infrastructure.
Cole rejects the idea that only one issuer should dominate the digital credit market.
He argues that competition between firms like Strive and Strategy drives innovation, improves products, and ultimately expands the overall market.
His view is that dozens of issuers, not just one or two, will eventually create a healthier and more resilient Bitcoin-backed credit ecosystem.
The central idea of the conversation is that digital credit could become the financial bridge between the existing dollar-based economy and a future Bitcoin-based economy. Cole believes investors want three things simultaneously: Bitcoin exposure, income, and lower volatility. His thesis is that digital credit is one of the first products capable of delivering all three, potentially making it a major asset class over the coming decades.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-06-03 22:17:36
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To investors,
An investment has to have three components to present an attractive risk-reward of true asymmetry:
A breakthrough technological innovation
A small market with potential to grow into a mega market in the future
An early cohort of missionary founders/investors hyper-focused on disproving the non-believers
The most obvious example of these components coming together over the last decade was bitcoin and crypto. The results speak for themselves as the industry presented one of the best financial returns for investors. I am obviously a very big believer in bitcoin and continue to see a bright future for the asset.
But I also understand that the significant asymmetry has dissipated as bitcoin has become bigger and received more adoption in the institutional world.
So what is the next market where asymmetry exists? What type of opportunity has the three key components for an attractive risk-reward?
Physical AI and robotics.
This is a corner of the artificial intelligence industry that is often overlooked and under-discussed. A big reason is that almost every company is in the private market and still relatively small. In addition, reporters or market commentators can easily use Chat-GPT, Claude, or other software products, but it is much harder for robotics to stay top of mind when people are not using them on a daily basis (yet!).
In order to understand the opportunity set better, I recently interviewed Andrew Kang, CEO of Robostrategy (Nasdaq: BOT), to get his take on what is happening in the industry. For those that don’t know, Andrew is one of the best investors in the world over the last decade, yet he is relatively unknown to the mainstream audience.
His 400,000 followers on X are constantly looking to him for insights on the next investing themes and trends, which is why Andrew’s decision to launch a publicly-traded fund that gives exposure to the top private robotics companies is so interesting.
After talking to Andrew, I made an investment in Robostrategy because I believe their portfolio contains many great assets and I have confidence that his team of robotic experts will continue to find the next great humanoid or robot-related companies.
You can listen to the interview here or you can watch the interview on YouTube. You can check out Robostrategy’s website here.
I asked Chat-GPT to summarize my conversation with Andrew. Here is the summary:
Humanoid Robots Are Much Closer Than Most People Realize
Kang argues that humanoid robots are no longer a distant sci-fi concept. He believes society will begin seeing robots integrated into everyday life within the next 3–5 years. These robots will work in factories, restaurants, warehouses, and eventually homes because they are adaptable to the same environments humans already operate in.
The Total Market Opportunity Is Measured in Tens of Trillions of Dollars
One of Kang’s core investment theses is that humanoid robots will replace a meaningful portion of human labor, which represents roughly half of global GDP. He walks through simple economics: if a robot costs ~$50,000 and can perform the work of multiple humans at a cost of roughly $2 per hour, the economic incentive for adoption becomes overwhelming. He believes leading robotics companies could eventually reach multi-trillion-dollar valuations.
Artificial Intelligence Was the Missing Piece
Historically, robotics struggled because machines lacked intelligence. Kang explains that advances in large language models and AI systems changed the equation. In his view, physical intelligence is now following digital intelligence. Once robots can understand their environment and adapt to changing conditions, many of the historical barriers to adoption disappear.
Why He Made Massive Investments Into Figure AI
Kang describes how most venture capitalists initially discouraged him from investing in Figure AI. He believed investors were anchored to decades of disappointing robotics outcomes and underestimated how AI would transform the industry. After extensive research, he increased his exposure dramatically because he became convinced Figure had assembled one of the strongest teams in the world and was executing faster than competitors.
The United States vs. China Robotics Race
A substantial portion of the conversation focuses on geopolitical competition. Kang acknowledges China’s dominance in manufacturing and hardware supply chains, but argues that the United States currently has an advantage in advanced AI and robot intelligence. He believes the winning robotics companies will need excellence in three areas: manufacturing, hardware design, and AI. His view is that China may produce many robots, but American firms could still create the most shareholder value.
Robots Will Cause Massive Labor Displacement
Unlike many technology executives who emphasize job creation, Kang is unusually direct about employment risks. He believes AI and robotics will eventually replace both physical labor and many cognitive jobs. Since robots may ultimately surpass humans in both domains, he argues that society will need entirely new economic safety nets. Universal Basic Income (UBI) is one solution he repeatedly mentions as a likely necessity.
The Future Home Will Include Humanoid Assistants
Kang expects humanoids to become common household products. He envisions robots cleaning homes, helping with chores, assisting elderly family members, and eventually serving as personal assistants. He compares future human-robot relationships to how people already interact with ChatGPT and other AI systems, suggesting that emotional attachment and trust in machines will become increasingly normal.
Training Data Is Less of a Constraint Than People Think
The conversation explores how robots learn. While some companies are collecting real-world training data through teleoperation and human demonstrations, Kang argues that advances in video models and world models have changed the landscape. Robots can learn from enormous amounts of internet video data, reducing the need to manually collect every piece of training information from scratch.
Robotics Investing Could Mirror the AI Boom
Kang believes robotics today resembles AI a few years ago. Just as a handful of AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic generated extraordinary value, he expects a small number of robotics firms to emerge as dominant winners. This conviction led him to create Robo Strategy, a publicly traded investment vehicle designed to provide broad investor exposure to the sector.
Robo Strategy’s Goal Is Bigger Than a Typical Venture Fund
Kang explains that Robo Strategy is not simply a collection of robotics investments. His vision is to create one of the largest robotics-focused investment platforms in the world. By using public markets rather than traditional venture capital structures, he hopes to raise far more capital, provide retail investors access to private robotics companies, and potentially reshape how venture capital itself operates in the future.
The overarching message of the podcast is that humanoid robotics is the next major technological platform shift after AI. Andrew Kang believes most investors are dramatically underestimating both the speed of adoption and the scale of economic value creation. His thesis is that robots will eventually become as commonplace as smartphones, fundamentally changing labor markets, business operations, and everyday life while creating some of the largest companies in history.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-06-01 22:36:04
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To investors,
The stock market continues to hit new all-time highs. Investors are cautiously optimistic. They don’t want to be the dummy who plows their capital into the top of a bubble, yet they can’t resist the urge to participate in the recent rapid gains enjoyed by anyone with a brokerage account.
Thankfully, anyone allocating capital into the market right now has the “Perfect Storm of Abundance” as a tailwind.
That is the name I will use to describe the framework I have for what is happening right now. There are five key forces to the Perfect Storm of Abundance: intelligence, earnings, dollars, risk-taking, and time.
First, the Abundance of Intelligence was ushered in by AI model labs exposing their disruptive technology to the world via chat interfaces. Everyone knows how to ask questions in a chat interface and everyone wants access to the smartest technology available.
You can see the breathtaking adoption of AI through this chart of token consumption surfaced by Jim Bianco.
Jim writes “token usage (blue bars) is exploding higher. It started in January when Agentic AI went mainstream with Claude Cowork and Moltbook (OpenClaw). AI users are creating agents and code, leading to exponential growth in AI usage. It’s just starting.”
A big part of this demand increase is from AI agents, rather than exclusively from humans. It seems like there is unlimited demand for AI, hence the Abundance of Intelligence label.
The frantic adoption of AI leads us to the Abundance of Earnings. Companies continue to report higher and higher numbers. This is true for the actual numbers in the last few earnings seasons, but the increases hold for 2026 estimated earnings as well.
Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows a projected 24% increase in EPS from last year to the end of this year.
That is a bonkers growth rate for companies that are already worth hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars. My friend Jordi Visser told me over the weekend to pay attention to Eli Lilly, who has reported a 55% year-over-year growth to their revenue.
55% annual growth for a trillion dollar company? Incredible. It is this type of revenue and earnings growth that continues to drive the stock market higher.
In addition to the improved financial performance, stock prices are appreciating because there is an Abundance of Dollars in the market now. You have to remember that approximately 40% of all dollars in circulation were created in the last 6 years.
If you have more dollars chasing the same number of good companies, you naturally get higher valuations and stock prices. Abundance of Dollars helps the investor class, which it punishes the savers with elevated levels of inflation.
But higher inflation is not the only side-effect of undisciplined fiscal and monetary policy in the United States. The second-order effect is that many people feel like they can’t get ahead, so they begin gambling more than normal with their money. This is an Abundance of Risk-Taking.
We see this clearly in the popularity of zero day options or levered ETFs. For example, “retail investors are now spending a record 4.9 TIMES more money on semiconductor options contracts than the average seen since 2020, according to Citadel data.
This is also exceeding the 2024 record by ~25%, when the AI chip frenzy first drove a surge in retail semiconductor options activity.”
The combination of earnings driving stock performance and debasement of the dollar has created an insane environment for going max risk-on.
Just don’t hold your breath that this situation will be over any time soon either. Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen writes “this bull market has lasted 1,326 days, which is more than 600 days shorter than the historical average since 1949. The bears waiting on the sidelines for a crash are fighting history.”
I call this the Abundance of Time. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, so investors are reminded that being “early” can sometimes be the same thing as being wrong.
It is these five forces (abundance of intelligence, earnings, dollars, risk-taking, and time) that convince me the stock market is justified in going higher. The forces also convince me that this bull market is only warming up and we haven’t seen the top of the market yet. Time will tell if I am right or not.
Hope you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss why the stock market keeps hitting all-time highs despite bad news, why AI and biotech are more underappreciated than most people realize, how Eli Lilly's AI partnerships could transform longevity and chronic disease, and where Jordi thinks you need to position your portfolio to actually compound in an exponential world.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender.
NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
2026-05-30 00:02:24
Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity.
Use Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY, a one of a kind DeFi product where your crypto earns for you against RWA (real world assets).
Figure also offers one of the lowest rates on their Crypto Backed Loans at 8.91% @ 50% LTV.
Sign up now and earn $50 when you make your first deposit, earn ~9% yield, or take out a Crypto Backed Loan with their low rates today!1
To investors,
Financial markets have officially flipped from the doom and gloom earlier this year to a euphoric state of momentum chasing. Julian Klymochko writes “It's a feeding frenzy. Retail stock trading volume this month is on track to finish 10% above the previous record set during the January 2021 meme stock bubble.”
This “feeding frenzy” continues to push the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. We have had 21 different all-time high records reached year-to-date. A big part of this performance has been AI stocks and the related inputs to the industry.
The Pope is even tweeting about AI, so you know we have reached levels of mainstream conversation that are reserved for only the frothiest environments.
But the popularity of AI is not the only thing attracting so much capital. This generation of persistently online investors are seeking as much volatility as they can find. This is why they loved bitcoin a few years ago. Now they are looking for the same volatility in new places.
Julian highlighted how the stock market is providing this price action when he wrote “the number of stocks moving +/- 10% on earnings days has risen five-fold over the past 5 years.”
And if betting on volatility for earnings reports was not enough, investors have been pouring capital into levered single-stock ETFs. Here is the explosion of AUM for these funds over the last two years:
A big reason for the enthusiasm and risk-taking is that investors have been profiting handsomely off this strategy in recent years. Take Jerome Powell’s reign as Federal Reserve Chairman as one example. Carson Group’s research team shows the “S&P 500 [was] +169.6% under his 8+ year tenure. 12.7% annualized, which is the 3rd best ever. Pandemic, inflation surge, aggressive hikes, a near-recession in '23 that never came. Plenty of bumps, but the scoreboard is hard to argue with.”
The scoreboard may look good in hindsight, but the price appreciation in recent years doesn’t come without risk. The Buffett Indicator has now reached “an all-time high of 236%, the most expensive stock market valuation in history.”
Despite this valuation risk, more than half of Americans continue to expect stock prices to be higher in 12 months.
This expectation remains elevated against the backdrop of the household savings rate dropping 3% over the last 12 months.
So we have a situation where the average retail investor continues to say they are bullish, which is supported by the flow of capital into the market. Their actions are aligned with their words. These details, combined with the continued strength in corporate earnings, gives me confidence that we will see higher stock prices through the end of the year.
The war in Iran is not going to stop that trend. Neither will higher gas or grocery prices. The American population has realized over the last few years that they must invest aggressively in the market to have a fighting chance of financially surviving. We are now watching the knock-on effect from that realization.
And if these investors, who have much more money than people realize, are going to invest aggressively into the market, then you have a persistent bid that will chase momentum, while also furiously buying any dip in market prices as well.
This situation is different than it used to be. But I don’t think investors need to change anything about their strategy because of the behavioral changes in the market. Buying great assets and holding them for the long-term is an approach that will never go out of style.
I hope everyone has a great end to their week. I will talk to you on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jan van Eck is the CEO of VanEck, a $200 billion asset manager and one of the leading ETF companies in the world.
In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is still early in its institutional adoption cycle, the looming U.S. government spending crisis and what it means for your portfolio, VanEck's long-term bet on India, and how AI is beginning to reshape investment decisions.
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2026-05-28 00:34:43
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To investors,
The most perplexing chart in finance has been consumer sentiment overlaid with the US stock market. As stocks have hit new all-time highs almost every day, consumer sentiment has continued falling to the lowest level on record.
How could both of these be true at the same time?
First, the quality of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey has degraded substantially. They used to survey 50% Republicans and 50% Democrats, but that changed over the last three years. The survey methodology changed with a shift to digital surveying, which has led to respondents being approximately 2/3rd Democrats and 1/3 Republicans.
Given Democrats have a much more pessimistic view on the economy right now, this over-sampling of one side of the political aisle is exaggerating the negative survey results more than normal.
With that said, I personally believe a large part of the country has a negative outlook on the economy and their personal finances. They are feeling the pain from currency debasement and the last few years of high inflation. The grocery and gas bills are piling up, while their wages can’t keep pace.
Second, the people holding stocks are happy when the stock market goes up, but the people without investment assets feel further left behind when stocks run away higher. Thankfully, about 60% of Americans directly or indirectly own stocks, so a large portion of the country is benefitting from the surge in asset prices.
But 40% of the country is not benefitting. These people are usually not on national television, posting their thoughts to X or Substack, nor are they usually able to articulate the financial pain in terms that economists or investors would recognize.
This is where you get the widening gap between stock market performance and consumer sentiment.
One counter-argument to this situation is that consumers say one thing, but they do another thing with their spending habits. That is true to a degree because consumer spending has continued to rise in America. The nuance is that the top 10% of consumers are now responsible for 50% of all consumer spending in the country.
As my friend SightBringer wrote: “The U.S. consumer economy is increasingly a luxury-top-heavy demand engine with a fragile mass-market shell underneath. That chart is brutal because it shows the spending base hollowing out. The top 10% now carries nearly half of consumer spending while the bottom 80% has lost share.
That means the headline consumer can look resilient even while most households are weakening. Aggregate spending survives because asset owners, high earners, and wealthy retirees keep spending.”
If you dig into the data, you will see an ever-widening K-shaped economy in consumer spending. This makes the situation complex and confusing, but it makes sense when you tie it back to the collapsing consumer sentiment.
But I come with some good news for investors. Creative Planning CEO Peter Mallouk shows a very low consumer sentiment survey result has been a “great contrarian indicator.” He says “the worse people feel about the future, the better the stock market has performed.”
When the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reports a result in the bottom 3% of all readings, the S&P 500 has delivered 19.6% over the next 12 months. That should give investors comfort because of how much the stock market and consumer sentiment has diverted, but continued strength in the US economy is unlikely to help the bottom 40% of Americans who have no investments and continue to get hit with higher consumer prices.
This is the great dichotomy of our time.
The rich get richer, while everyone else falls further behind. The same things that make asset prices go up, punish the people who need the most relief. And if you want to know what decisions will be made at the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, or in Washington DC, you just have to look at the type of person who is in charge of making the decision.
Wealthy, powerful people are doing their best to navigate the situation with the tools they have been given. They will try to be empathetic. They will look at as much data as they can. And I genuinely believe these people want to do the right thing and help as many people as possible.
The problem is they can’t serve two masters at the same time. So the wealthy asset owners will continue winning, while everyone else drowns. The only thing you can do is make sure you are in the right group as time continues to expire, asset prices go higher, and inflation claims more victims.
Hope you have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Porter Stansberry is the founder of Stansberry Research and the author of “2029: The End of America.”
In this conversation, we discuss why Porter believes America is heading toward a great financial reset by 2029, the Social Security collapse, currency debasement, Warren Buffett's struggles over the last 20 years, and how to build a portfolio to survive what's coming — including gold, bitcoin, Timber, and his Honeycomb Portfolio strategy.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender.
NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.