2025-12-22 21:51:21
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To investors,
Retail investors have been “buying the dip” for years and it has proven to be a great investment strategy. But this idea is not new. Decades ago, Jesse Livermore spoke often about buying weakness within positive trends. Benjamin Graham started, and Warren Buffett popularized, the idea of value investing (or buying things for less than they are worth).
Those timeless investing principles wrapped in clinical language were unlikely to resonate with young people in a social media generation. But you know what would spread like wildfire? Four letters regurgitated over and over again across the internet…BTFD.
Buy The F***ing Dip.
I can’t tell you how many times I have seen those four letters posted online. They are the rallying cry for a generation of investors who realize they are playing a game of chicken with the Federal Reserve, but America’s central bank will always blink first.
Wall Street Journal reporter Gunjan Banerji highlights recent Bank of America data showing that “the buy-the-dip trade is having one of its strongest years of the past century.”
This graphic perfectly encapsulates what retail investors inherently know: the Fed has no choice but to prop up the market.
They can’t allow the stock market to fail, nor can they standby while the market hits a free fall. This is why I have continuously said for years that prolonged bear markets have been outlawed.
We can get sharp market drops, such as during COVID or the tariff panic earlier this year, but the government/Fed/Treasury will always step in and ensure asset prices go right back to all-time high prices.
This is an important backdrop because it puts immense pressure on the mainstream narrative that consumers are pessimistic about the economy. For example, Adam Kobeissi shows “the US consumer sentiment assessment of current economic conditions has declined to 50.4 points, the lowest level on record.”
Adam is just sharing the data that is being published by the University of Michigan. But this data is obviously wrong. There is no way that consumers collectively are the most pessimistic they have ever been on the economy.
Do you know how I know that? Because half of the country believes the exact opposite of what the University of Michigan is telling you. Take Fox Business host Larry Kudlow as a recent example. He tweeted “get ready for Trump's 5% economy. We haven’t done it for over 40 years, but I believe it well could happen next year, and or the year after that. Everybody is underestimating President Trump's re-imagination and rejuvenation of a new capitalist path to prosperity.”
The White House’s David Sacks reposted Kudlow’s comments with additional color:
“Kudlow is right: inflation is coming down, interest rates are coming down, and tax cuts are coming in 2026. These are the conditions for a Reagan-like economic boom. Just as important, we have an AI investment super-cycle driving an extra 2% of GDP growth. Democrats like Bernie Sanders have figured this out, so they are doing everything they can to sabotage the infrastructure build-out. Republicans should not be gaslit about this. As with Climate Change, most of the concerns have been amplified to hoax level.”
This tweet echos thoughts that David Sacks shared on the recent episode of the All-In podcast. Take a listen:
Again, you may believe the economy is doing well or you may believe it is doing poorly. Regardless of which side of the debate you are on, there is about half the country that believes the exact opposite. And the data suggests investors are very bullish.
Kobeissi explains “Investors are piling into equity ETFs at a record pace. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, posted +$40 billion in inflows last week, the largest intake this year. Year-to-date, $VOO net inflows are now up to +$163 billion, the largest on record for a single ETF.”
The enthusiasm in markets is not just from retail investors either. The Financial Times recently reported “macro hedge funds are enjoying their best year since at least 2008…an index from data provider HFR tracking the returns of such funds — which aim to profit from economic trends by trading equities, bonds and commodities — was up 16% at the end of November.”
This brings me back to buying the dip. Retail investors figured out the Fed’s put and they have been aggressive buyers whenever there is weakness in the market. Institutional investors are starting to catch on to the game too. Think about it…where else are you going to put your capital? Are you going to sell stocks to sit in US dollars or Treasuries that are guaranteed to lose value over time?
No, of course not. As long as the government will print money and debase the dollar, stocks will go up forever. Maybe you have to ride out a little volatility, but holding public equity indexes is most likely one of the simplest strategies that works in finance.
And if the S&P or similar index wants to dip for a few days? There will be a line out the door of people ready to buy more.
Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the latest CPI data, what it means for the Fed’s next moves, artificial intelligence — how it’s changing the way people work, learn, and create an edge in their careers.
We also cover bitcoin, macro positioning, and specific companies and organizations investors should be paying attention to right now.
Enjoy!
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Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
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Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
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Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-19 22:28:01
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To investors,
I wanted to share five lessons I learned this year as we head into the final two weeks of the year.
First, always question the mainstream narrative. The tariff panic in the first half of 2025 led many investors to sell assets, predict a big crash, or generally find themselves offsides in financial markets. I was fortunate to avoid this trap by doing my own analysis of source material to better understand what had happened in 2018 when tariffs were levied against various goods (read that letter here).
In hindsight, I was able to identify the need for this analysis because I recognized a pattern that raised red flags. The consensus narrative is almost always wrong as soon as dissent is outlawed. We saw this during the COVID situation and it was easy to spot when people were labeled lunatic MAGA cheerleaders for merely suggesting that tariffs wouldn’t lead to sky-high inflation, empty shelves, or the next Great Depression.
Lesson: Always question the consensus and look for moments where dissent is outlawed.
My second lesson of the year was market structure can overwhelm narratives and vibes. Bitcoin is the perfect example. Everyone was excited going into the year because Trump was aspiring to be the first bitcoin President, the ETFs were gobbling up capital, and Wall Street was poised to embrace the digital industry.
Although bitcoin performed well in the first half of the year, it eventually crashed nearly 40% from the all-time high and left many investors disappointed in its performance. The reason for this lack of sustained appreciation is a combination of heavy call selling, large liquidations on October 10th, and immense profit taking by OG whales.
The vibes were good. The narrative was immaculate. But the market structure was ultimately too powerful of a force.
Lesson: Sometimes you have to tune out the noise and study the market structure.
My third lesson of the year is that bubbles are sexy, but remain very rare. We saw this play out well in the public market related to AI. It seems like tons of people watched the Big Short movie and now they want to call the next big market crash. It became cool to be a bear at some point in the last few years.
The stock market doesn’t care about those people’s feelings or opinions though. Innovation helps create value out of thin air and that is what artificial intelligence has been doing. The idea that a bubble could form and pop, while the market players are saying they can’t keep up with demand, is quite comical.
I have yet to find a person who claims AI won’t be valuable over time, but there are a lot of questions about the financial return on the significant investments being made. Those are fair questions that should be asked. But predicting the next Great Financial Crisis every two months doesn’t make a lot of sense. I am often reminded of the Bill Gates quote, “we overestimate what we can do in one year and underestimate what we can do in ten years.”
Lesson: Fear porn is popular now. Supply and demand are still undefeated though.
My fourth lesson of the year is that gambling is America’s favorite activity. We had an explosion of examples throughout the year. Zero day options are dominating the market. Levered ETFs with 3x or 5x leverage continue to be launched on single name stocks. Sports gambling has been sweeping the nation. And prediction markets have pulled off the greatest rebrand of all time by convincing people they are predicting the future rather than gambling on the weather, the color of someone’s tie, or whether an active shooter is going to be caught in the first 48 hours.
I don’t claim some moral high ground because I believe that all financial markets are speculation, which is just a fancy way to describe gambling. If you buy stocks, you are ultimately gambling. If you buy options, you are gambling. If you buy cryptocurrency, you are gambling. It is just that these investment related activities have much better odds of success than buying a lottery ticket, sitting at a blackjack table, or letting a triple parlay fly on NFL Sunday.
Lesson: America is addicted to gambling. Choose your form of gambling wisely.
My fifth lesson of the year is that public markets are going to become much more popular with the younger generation of entrepreneurs in the coming years. It used to be cool to stay private for as long as possible. SpaceX is talking about going public next year. Medline just went public after nearly a half century. OpenAI and others are eyeing the public market as well.
People are realizing the public market has better access to capital and the market scrutiny forces you to run a better business. Add in the fact that the private market returns for the average venture fund are getting squeezed because of the amount of capital pouring into that sector and you can see why founders, executives, and investors will begin leveraging the public markets once again.
This will have a profound impact on the companies that choose this route, but also on the millions of investors who have been boxed out of some of the best investment opportunities due to lack of access or antiquated accreditation laws.
Lesson: Public markets are going to be popular once again.
These are the five lessons from 2025 that are top of mind right now. I usually take the last two weeks of the year to debrief myself on what went well, what mistakes did I make, and what were the main lessons I learned. If I come up with other information that I think would be valuable for everyone, I will send more conclusions in another letter.
Hope everyone has a great end to their week. I’ll talk to you on Monday.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano break down what’s really happening in the bitcoin market — why price has stalled, how volatility is evolving, and what most investors are missing about the next phase of this cycle.
We also dig into the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut debate, the broader economic backdrop, and how liquidity conditions are shaping risk assets — with a brief touch on BUD/S training and why discipline matters in markets and life.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-18 23:11:53
To investors,
The government reported inflation metrics this morning and they came in freezing cold compared to economists’ expectations. CPI was forecast to be 3.1% year-over-year, but instead the data came in at 2.7%. That is 40 basis points lower than what economists predicted.
Core CPI was no different. Expectations were 3.0%, but the actual numbers came in at 2.6% year-over-year. Another 40 basis points below expectations.
As I have continued to say, deflation is smacking the US economy in the face. Tariffs are deflationary. AI and robotics are deflationary. Deportations are deflationary. Too many people have their brains broken by politics to understand what is happening right now.
Even Truflation, the most accurate inflation measurement in my opinion, is showing inflation at 2.5% this morning.
You can see from the reaction of the mainstream media that everyone has been convinced inflation is going higher and the economic policies being implemented could not possibly help bring down prices. Take a watch as the inflation numbers came out this morning:
While these year-over-year numbers are encouraging, Professor Jason Furman points out that the numbers of shorter timelines are even more encouraging. He writes:
Core CPI annual rates:
3 month: 1.6% (lowest since Feb-2021)
6 month: 2.6% (lowest since July -2025)
12 months: 2.6% (lowest since Mar-2021)
Geiger Capital shows “core CPI in November came in lower than all 62 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted…[and] core CPI is at the lowest level since 2021.” Warren Pies hits the nail even harder by explaining that “all 3 broad vectors: Shelter, oil, and labor [are] disinflating.”
Data is data. People may not like these facts, but it doesn’t change them. Harvard Professor of Economics Ken Rogoff said it best on CNN this morning when he said “I was surprised. It was a better number than anyone was expecting. It was positive news — there’s no other way to spin it.”
Again, politics broke the brains of a lot of people. Democrats are predicting inflation to be over 5% a year from now and Republicans are predicting the number to be around 1.5%. The truth is probably somewhere inbetween.
Your job as an investor is to tune out the noise. Look at the data. Read the source materials. Allocate your capital based on what is likely to happen, not based on what you want to happen.
Investors have to be truth seekers. Politics gets in the way of that pursuit. Inflation is coming down. Deflationary forces are assaulting the economy. And my guess is that GDP growth will accelerate in coming months and asset prices are going higher.
Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
🚨 Kathy Wylde is the most powerful woman in New York. It is impressive to watch her command her peers, rally resources, & ultimately get things done. Anyone who is a player knows & respects Kathy.
My wife, Polina Pompliano, spent a few days shadowing Kathy & wrote a fantastic profile of the ultimate boss.
You can read the profile of Kathy Wylde here:
Anthony and John Pompliano break down what’s really happening in the bitcoin market — why price has stalled, how volatility is evolving, and what most investors are missing about the next phase of this cycle.
We also dig into the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut debate, the broader economic backdrop, and how liquidity conditions are shaping risk assets — with a brief touch on BUD/S training and why discipline matters in markets and life.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-16 23:12:57
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To investors,
It seems like every day we are being bombarded with negative headlines, scary predictions of a big market crash, and the promise of economic destruction right around the corner. The people pushing this negative view of the world will point to data points like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey as evidence that American citizens are in big trouble.
But as the Wall Street Journal’s Gunjan Banerji recently pointed out, the Goldman Sachs Social Media Economic Sentiment Index has diverged in a big way from the Consumer Sentiment Survey.
Which one should you believe? The Goldman survey that measures what people are saying online when they think no one is watching or the academic survey that asks people to fill out an online form with specific “measurement” questions? I’ll take the social media sentiment every day of the week.
It isn’t just social media though. Mike Zaccardi shows Google searches for “AI bubble” have started declining from their recent peak.
My takeaway from that rapid decline is that most of the AI-related fear was actually just a hysteria induced by mainstream media coverage that served a constant barrage of negative stories for the last few weeks. Nothing has really changed about the AI market or the AI companies, so the fact that people are not furiously asking “are we in a bubble?!” tells me that people are probably not worried about a real bubble being present yet.
They shouldn’t be worried about a bubble either. The Federal Reserve is starting to pump capital back into the market. Tom McClellan says “tor those keeping score at home, this new QE will actually be QE5. We had QE4 after the Covid Crash in 2020.”
This QE is happening at a time where the US government’s finances are improving too. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday that “the current calendar year-to-date deficit is $1.52 trillion, which compares to a deficit of $1.93 trillion for the comparable period last year under Biden, a 21% drop.
Not only is the deficit smaller under President Trump - the economy is also bigger. The full 2025 calendar year budget deficit to GDP may total only 5.5%, substantially lower than the unsustainably high 6.8% in calendar year 2024 under Biden.”
Forget the political sharpshooting and focus on what is important: the US government’s finances are improving. This is good for every American citizen. You can see another area where this is showing up in national gasoline prices. These prices are now the lowest they have been since March 2021.
And if that doesn’t get you excited, the Carson Group shows the last two weeks of December have historically been one of the best periods of the year for stocks.
I know people are winding down for the holidays, but the market may be coiling for an end of year run. It would be a welcomed Christmas present for investors across markets.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.
Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.
Enjoy!
Figure - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Figure’s Crypto-Backed Loans allow you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%. Access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. https://figuremarkets.co/pomp
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. www.abra.com.
Bitizenship – Get Italian Residency with €250k investment in Bitcoin Startup Italy , maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.5% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-16 07:16:48
To investors,
Bitcoin can’t be ignored by institutional investors anymore. Despite price volatility, the asset has seen massive institutional inflows, a successful integration of spot ETFs, and adoption on corporate balance sheets globally. Bitcoin is rapidly becoming an integrated part of our modern finance system because Bitcoin is the new hurdle rate.
This institutional inevitability is why we built Bitcoin Investor Week – to bring together thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.
As a holiday gift to Pomp Letter subscribers, we are releasing 100 General Admission tickets at 30% off with code BIWHOLIDAY.
Sale ends this Friday (December 19th) or when sold out.
Join us in New York City February 9th - 13th and get direct access to the CEOs, institutional investors, policy makers, and investment heads who are actively making the multi-billion-dollar allocation decisions. We always deliver a great lineup of speakers, including:
Mike Novogratz
Grant Cardone
Bo Hines
Anthony Scaramucci
Lyn Alden
Jan van Eck
Fred Thiel
Jeff Park
Jordi Visser
Many more names listed here (plus more to be announced)...
Use code BIWHOLIDAY for 30% off on a limited batch of General Admission tickets. Sale ends this Friday (December 19th) or when sold out.
I look forward to seeing you in-person in February.
-Pomp
2025-12-15 22:07:40
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To investors,
Financial markets have learned to listen when the President of the United States talks about asset prices or the economy. When he said to buy stocks earlier this year, it was a great time to buy stocks. When he said tariffs wouldn’t lead to empty shelves or the Great Depression, you should have gone long stocks immediately.
This makes sense because the leader of the free world, regardless of his political party, had immense power and influence over financial markets. Simply, he can make things happen.
But every once in awhile Trump says something about the economy that sounds downright outrageous. The latest example was a few days ago when he said GDP growth should be 20-25% year-over-year. The exact quote was: “instead of a 4% GDP or 3% GDP, it should be able to be 20 or 25%. I don’t know why it can’t be.”
At first, this comment sounds ridiculous because the US has averaged 3.2% annual GDP growth since 1947. So the President is telling us he thinks that his economic policies can get us to a growth number that is 700% higher. Again, sounds ridiculous, right?
Maybe not. There is a possible path to significant GDP growth. It may be unlikely, but it is possible.
First, Michael Arouet highlights the real driver on how we could get to 20-25% GDP numbers. Michael writes “Hear me out, was the entire period since the Great Financial Crisis just an unsustainable artificial debt binge?”
If that is true, the US economy could easily grow faster if we were willing to take on substantially more debt. That may sound like a crazy idea, but that is exactly what we have been doing for the last 25 years.
The United States’ debt-to-GDP has exploded from about 55% in the year 2000 to nearly 125% in 2024. We are addicted to debt. There is no other way to describe the situation.
But the Trump administration has somehow figured out a way to stimulate GDP growth upwards of 3.5%, while reducing the federal budget deficit by around $600 billion.
Kevin Hassett went on television last week and said “It’s looking like the deficit for this year will be $600 billion lower than it was last year. That really helps lower inflation. We’ve got the trade deficit cut in half from last year. All of these things are things that should continue to move us towards the Fed target of 2%.”
Now this doesn’t mean they are going to balance the budget. In fact, I went from being excited about a balanced budget earlier this year to very cynical about any President in our lifetime being able to balance a budget in light of the structural challenges. But reducing the deficit by $600 billion is still a great development.
So this brings us back to growing GDP at a substantially higher rate. The way you do this is ease monetary policy, encourage technology innovation like AI, and deregulate as much as possible. There will be trade-offs to these decisions, but this is the blueprint for growing GDP much faster.
Take AI as one example. The explosion of innovation and investment from Silicon Valley has essentially saved the US economy. More than 60% of GDP growth is estimated to be from AI-related investments. Couple that with the interest rate cuts, the return of QE, and a Trump-friendly Fed Chairman for 2026…that should spell faster growth across the US economy.
We were promised an economic boom. It looks like we are going to get exactly that. Will it be 20-25% annual GDP growth? Doubtful. But I’ll take 5-7% growth any day of the week.
Hope everyone has a great start to their Monday. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the latest Fed decision, rate cuts, and their impact on bitcoin and public equities.
Then we go deep into the AI landscape — where value is emerging, where risks remain, and how investors should be thinking about positioning for 2026.
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