2026-03-25 21:43:08
This Thursday @ 3pm ET, I’m sitting down with Abra CEO and Founder Bill Barhydt and the Head of Asset Management Marissa Kim on a webinar to share how we’re each thinking about crypto portfolio construction, custody, leverage, and positioning right now.
Three investors. One conversation. No fluff.
If you are an investor trying to navigate macro uncertainty and market risk, this conversation is for you. Register for FREE below.
To investors,
Rachel Ensign of The Wall Street Journal recently published an article titled “They’re Rich but Not Famous—and They’re Suddenly Everywhere.” This one stopped me in my tracks and made me think more critically about what is happening in finance right now.
The article wasn’t about billionaires or hedge funds. It was about the “stealth rich.” These are Americans worth tens or hundreds of millions who built wealth the unglamorous way: owning businesses, accumulating assets, and letting compounding do the work.
Most readers will walk away thinking this is an interesting anecdote or a one-off edge case. It’s not. It’s a signal of the structural shift that is underway. And the consensus view is still underestimating how durable it is.
More Americans are becoming wealthy, at younger ages, than at any point in history. Not because of speculation. Not because of a bubble. But because multiple long-term forces are compounding at the same time.
Let’s start with public markets.
The S&P 500 has quietly become one of the most reliable wealth creation systems ever built. Passive flows, tax-advantaged accounts, and global demand for US assets have created a persistent bid. Investors keep waiting for mean reversion. What they’re missing is that the structure of the market has changed.
I don’t think the “passive investing” trend is a bubble. It feels like much more of a regime shift. As long as capital continues to flow automatically into equities, valuations can remain structurally higher than historical averages. The “overvaluation” argument has been right in theory and wrong in practice for over a decade.
Private markets are even more misunderstood.
Middle-market businesses are no longer local, capital-constrained operations. They are global, tech-enabled cash flow machines. Software has compressed costs. Distribution has expanded. Capital is abundant, which means contrary to popular belief: the golden age of small and midsize business ownership is happening right now.
The nostalgia for “old school entrepreneurship” misses the point. Today’s operators have better tools, higher margins, and more exit liquidity than any prior generation. And it isn’t just small businesses either. Real estate tells a similar story.
Yes, affordability is stretched. Yes, rates are higher. But supply remains constrained, and ownership is increasingly concentrated among higher-income households. Rather than view these inputs as a sign that real estate is broken, I think a better way to view the market is that real estate has become a luxury asset. This transition to luxury asset keeps a structural floor under prices, even if transaction volumes slow.
Next, we can look to technology. This is a true force multiplier. Artificial intelligence, software, and digital platforms create asymmetric outcomes. Small advantages scale globally with near-zero marginal cost. That dynamic didn’t exist 30 years ago, so maybe inequality is not a bug of the system, but instead it is a feature of scalable technology.
I am not here to argue this is a good thing. Rather I am just observing what appears to be happening across the country. And as long as the U.S. leads in innovation, the largest financial outcomes will continue to concentrate here.
Now layer in monetary policy. The consensus view is that the era of easy money is over. But that misses the bigger picture in my opinion. Even “tight” policy today is structurally easier than historical norms when measured against debt levels and political incentives. The system simply cannot tolerate prolonged tightness. Liquidity will return and it won’t be as temporary stimulus, instead it will be a recurring necessity.
Human capital has also shifted. More people are working in high-productivity industries. They earn more, save more, and invest earlier. This means the investor class is expanding faster than people realize. These investors have more money and are more sophisticated than prior generations. This is not “dumb money.” It is systematic, persistent capital allocation.
But we can’t focus on what is happening exclusively inside the United States. Globalization is still happening, even if the political headlines try to convince you otherwise. American companies still access global demand, global labor, and global capital. De-globalization is overstated, which can be seen by the evolution of economic integration, rather than a true reversing of the trend. And capital continues to flow toward the most productive systems, which are largely US-based or US-centric.
This brings us to demographics. This is one trend that every academic or economists love to point to as a headwind. But that ignores the asset side of the equation. The largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history will act as an accelerant for asset prices. Capital from boomers is not going to disappear. It will get redeployed and most likely redeployed into much more aggressive portfolio allocations by the younger generation.
All of this leads to a conclusion most investors are still uncomfortable with:
Wealth is compounding faster than the mainstream narrative acknowledges.
And wealth doesn’t sit still. It hunts returns. US households now hold a greater share of their net worth in equities than in real estate. That would have been unfathomable just a few decades ago. Incremental capital flows into stocks, private businesses, venture, crypto, and alternatives. That newfound, persistent demand supports higher valuations.
It also creates reflexivity. Rising asset prices increase wealth. That wealth drives spending and investment. Spending supports earnings. Earnings support asset prices.
I have been yelling from the rooftop to “study reflexivity” for years now. This is as good a time as any to get up to speed on how it works. What many call a “bubble” is actually a feedback system. And those systems tend to persist longer than expected.
The only true way that something breaks is if the underlying flows are disrupted and I just don’t see that scenario at the moment. You have to remember that capital is also moving faster. Liquidity events (whether in public equities, private markets, or new technological winners) are recycled across asset classes at increasing speed.
Velocity of capital matters as much as quantity. And the velocity across markets is accelerating. Of course, there is no free lunch. There are real risks that must be acknowledged too. Concentration is higher and correlations rise in stress environments. A drawdown would transmit quickly through household balance sheets.
But even here, investors may be thinking about it incorrectly. Drawdowns are becoming shorter and more aggressively bought because the capital base behind them is larger and more responsive. The result is a market structure where downside exists, but is increasingly met with enthusiastic capital deployment from a decentralized army of investors across markets.
Put it all together and the picture becomes clear: We are in a regime defined by abundant capital, expanding ownership, and scalable technology.
That is not a normal environment. I like to say “this ain’t your grandpa’s market.” It is a structurally bullish one. The United States did not just grow its economy. It expanded the number of people who own meaningful financial assets and the country gave them the tools to keep compounding.
That ownership class is growing and it is becoming the dominant force in markets.
America didn’t announce it got rich. The wealth accumulation by many Americans was quiet and intentional. But now you hear all the bears out in full force trying to convince you that things have gone too far. Valuations are too high. The Fed has to take the punch bowl away at the party. The boomers got wealthy off asset inflation, so now they want to pull the ladder up behind them.
It is not going to happen. The more uncomfortable possibility is that we are still early in a generational bull market. The optimists are right. Stocks are going up forever. The dollar is going to lose value forever. And those holding cash are going to get smoked, while those pouring capital into legitimate financial assets will see their net worths grow larger, just like their grandparents were able to experience.
Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Johann Kerbrat is the SVP and General Manager of Crypto and International at Robinhood, where he leads the company’s expansion across digital assets and global markets.
In this conversation, we discuss the rise of 24/7 trading, evolving retail investor behavior, and Robinhood’s push into areas like tokenization, prediction markets, and institutional crypto services. We also explore how artificial intelligence is shaping financial products and why improving access and education for everyday investors remains a key focus for the future.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
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Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-03-23 21:43:06
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To investors,
Gold, bonds, and bitcoin tell the story of financial markets right now. We recently saw gold crash down to $4,100 per ounce, bonds continue pushing higher, and bitcoin is up around 8% since the start of the war.
So why is all of this happening? What are these three assets telling us about what is likely to come next?
We can start with bonds. Trillions of dollars have poured into US Treasuries over the years. Investors find the bonds attractive due to their deep liquidity, near zero credit risk, predictable income, and tax advantages at the state and local level. Normally during times of uncertainty, Treasury prices appreciate and yields are pressured lower due to increased demand.
That demand comes from investors seeking refuge from large potential losses in stocks and corporate bonds. The US government is largely seen as the ultimate backstop in financial markets, so the government’s bonds are deemed the least risky thing to own.
But we have seen the opposite happen during the Iran conflict. Yields are up and Treasuries are down. This is because oil prices have spiked hard, which introduces classic stagflation risk. That stagflation risk deters the Fed from cutting interest rates and it reignites inflation fears. Those inflation fears change the calculus for investors and prevent them from driving yields down and Treasuries up.
Treasuries have actually been one of the worst-performing major assets since February 28th, which is the exact opposite of the usual playbook.
But what if this weird reaction in the bond market was met with a once-in-a-lifetime threat for participating? What if you could have a missile shot at you for buying Treasuries?
This isn’t a hypothetical situation. Last night, the Speaker of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Parliament put out an unhinged tweet that read:
“Alongside military bases, those financial entities that finance the US military budget are legitimate targets. US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood. Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your HQ and assets.
We monitor your portfolios. This is your final notice.”
How serious is this threat? I have no idea. But the idea that financial institutions could potentially become targets of a country that the United States is actively engaged in kinetic combat with is unsettling. Will this proclamation deter people from buying Treasuries? Probably not. But weirder things have happened in the past.
This latest threat is just another example of Iran’s strategy to deal with the current conflict. They have been launching missiles and drones into American military bases, along with energy infrastructure of various neighboring countries in the Middle East. They have shut down the Strait of Hormuz and attacked multiple ships that tried to navigate the perilous waters. And this weekend the largest state sponsor of terrorism threatened to cut the sub-sea internet cables in the Strait.
This strategy reminds me of an old Reddit post that explains why you never want to fight an insane person: “Never fight or argue with an unpredictable, mentally unstable, or irrational person, as they often lack restraint, use “dirty” tactics, and will drag you down to their level, resulting in a loss regardless of the outcome. They pose a higher danger because they are unpredictable and lack fear.”
I am hosting a webinar with Abra this Thursday @ 3pm ET where we will break down everything investors need to know about custody, leverage, and portfolio positioning in today’s evolving crypto market.
Abra’s CEO Bill Barhydt and Managing Director Marissa Kim will join me to discuss how serious investors are thinking about risk, opportunity, and long-term strategy during this current market cycle.
If you are an investor looking to better understand how to structure your crypto portfolio and navigate macro uncertainty, this webinar is for you.
This lack of predictability, coupled with a desire to maximize damage inflicted, has put the United States in an unusual situation. We can stop bombing the country and claim victory at any point. There is no promise that Iran would stop attacking their neighbors, stop funding terrorism globally, or cease their pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
During times of uncertainty like this, we would expect to see gold’s price appreciate rapidly. Investors tend to seek safe-haven assets and they want to insulate themselves from incoming currency debasement needed to fund a war. But that is not what has happened in this conflict.
Gold has been plummeting and the precious metal is now down about 13% since the start of the war. Some people will claim the sell-off is due to potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, but I don’t think that is correct. I am more convinced that a liquidity crisis is underway for people, organizations, and countries in the Eastern world.
These are the same groups that were aggressively buying gold in the last two years. So against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, these gold holders are likely looking for liquidity and selling gold is an easy way to raise cash.
This brings us to bitcoin. The digital currency has been the unsung hero of the conflict. Ash Crypto shows that “Bitcoin is up 34% against gold since the US-Iran war started 23 days ago.”
There are multiple drivers of this outperformance, but I truly believe the world is recognizing bitcoin’s attractive attributes as a non-sovereign, decentralized asset that can be moved anywhere in the world within seconds. A store of value that doesn’t require an airplane to move it is quite attractive in the world we are headed towards.
So until the war ends, my expectation is oil goes higher, bonds and gold stay under constant pressure, and bitcoin outperforms other store of value assets. This may not be what investors expected going into the conflict, but here we are. Your academic textbook can’t change reality.
Remember, we know financial markets will rip higher immediately if the Iran war comes to an end. We know this because President Trump told reporters late on Friday that America was close to winding down the war. Stocks went green almost immediately in after-hours trading.
So investors are all playing a game of chicken right now. How much pain are we willing to withstand on the hopes that Trump and his administration are close to a cease-fire? We know it will be valuable to be invested when the pivot comes, but it is nearly impossible to get the timing right. This means you have to eat the drawdown in your portfolio or you have to be out of the market and risk missing the fast recovery.
Every investor has a different strategy. But one thing is clear…financial assets are responding to bombs in the Middle East, oil prices domestically, and what the man in the White House tweets. What a time to be alive.
Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss rising geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, and growing risks in private credit and global markets. We also explore bitcoin’s resilience, how AI is disrupting software and jobs, and why Jordy believes commodities, liquidity, and volatility will shape the next major investment cycle.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-03-20 21:59:07
Why just HODL when you could HODL and possibly earn more?
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To investors,
I was convinced that deflation was the biggest risk to the US economy to start 2026. The deflationary forces from tariffs, deportations, AI, and robotics were driving inflation down, while the economy’s productivity soared higher. It was a central banker’s dream to have low inflation and high growth.
But the war in Iran has changed the playing field.
The short-term oil price shock has been well documented and it doesn’t seem to have any relief in sight. Truflation, the real-time alternative inflation metric, reported inflation at 1.65% this morning. That number is still below the Fed’s target of 2%, but Truflation has approximately doubled in the last few weeks.
The direction of travel for the real-time inflation metric is concerning.
This battle between long-term deflationary trends and short-term inflationary trends is the most important thing to watch right now. If you had asked me three months ago about asset prices, I would have tempered your expectations because of the deflation risk.
Assets have a hard time appreciating rapidly if liquidity is being drained from the system and consumer prices are stagnating or falling. But now the calculus is changing. The national debt has increased by almost $3 trillion since President Trump took office. The Fed has started expanding their balance sheet again. And oil is climbing higher every day.
The rapid change in the economic environment means that various assets, especially bitcoin, have become significantly more interesting. Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset in the world to global liquidity, so we should expect the digital currency to do well if countries are printing insane amounts of money to fund an ongoing kinetic conflict.
The question in that scenario becomes “how will bitcoin perform if the US is pushed into a recession?”
As we saw during COVID, the Fed and other central banks around the world have perfected the QE playbook. I have said over and over again that recessions of 18 months or longer have been essentially banned by monetary policy tools. So if the US enters a recession, which I am still not convinced will happen, we should expect the Fed to print trillions of dollars and cut interest rates to 0% again.
Bitcoin was built for that moment.
There is a famous saying in the bitcoin world: “Bitcoin has no top, because the dollar has no bottom.”
I believe that statement is the most important way to understand bitcoin as an asset. The US government is facing a potential crisis. If they can’t end the war with Iran, they will quickly have to turn to monetary policy tools address an economic crisis at home. Remember, this is all happening during a midterm election year too.
You can’t go into an election with high inflation, degrading affordability, and a never-ending conflict on the other side of the world. Because of these facts, I am holding out hope that the administration will end the Iran war in the coming weeks. They will claim victory and then turn their attention to driving oil prices lower, including a focus on getting the BLS inflation as close to 2% as they can.
There is no promise this vision of the future will happen though.
Thankfully, the long-term deflationary trends are still very much alive. The adoption of artificial intelligence is only just beginning and companies continue to report record revenue with fewer employees. You can see the impact in earnings reports and the labor market.
And now we have Jeff Bezos, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, Travis Kalanick, and many others talking about AI applied to the physical world. Whether we are talking about robotics in manufacturing, industrial, or infrastructure industries, it is obvious that superhuman intelligence is coming to a location near you.
If software is driving positive impacts in the economy, just imagine what happens when automation hits various industries that are notorious for their inefficiency. We are talking about trillions of dollars in enterprise value up for grabs. I don’t know who wins, but the world’s smartest and best capitalized entrepreneurs are going to compete for the prize.
This brings me back to bitcoin. If we are entering a world of abundance, where the cost of productivity is rapidly dropping towards zero, scarce assets become significantly more valuable. So in a weird way, Bitcoin appears to be positioned to benefit from increasing inflation and liquidity, while being the natural resting place for capital in a post-abundance world.
I was preparing for a big headwind in bitcoin to start the year. But I have changed my mind in the last few weeks. This setup is looking attractive unless the war in Iran is ended quickly. My current views don’t mean that bitcoin will never go below $65,000 again, but I am glad bitcoin is the core holding in my personal portfolio.
It feels like I am prepared for a future world that is going to look different than the world we are used to. Hope you all have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Bill Barhydt is the founder and CEO of Abra and a longtime leader in digital assets and crypto wealth management.
In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin’s relationship to global liquidity, money printing, and geopolitical risk, as well as why retail investors still drive crypto price action. We also cover new crypto regulation and the Clarity Act, Abra’s plans to go public via SPAC, the rise of tokenized equities and real-world assets, and how AI is transforming financial services and business operations.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
Staking rewards are not guaranteed. Estimated APYs are subject to change based on network conditions, fees, and compounding frequency, and eligible assets may vary at the custodian’s discretion. Staked assets are subject to the terms of BitcoinIRA, the custodian, and the applicable blockchain protocols. Staking carries risks, including market volatility and potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all investors. While staking can provide the opportunity to earn rewards on your crypto (similar to how a savings account earns interest), it operates very differently from a bank account and involves unique risks that should be fully understood before participating. Clients are strongly encouraged to consult a CPA, investment, or tax advisor to determine if staking aligns with their financial goals. BitcoinIRA a dba for Alternative IRA Services, LLC (“AIS”) is a platform that connects consumers to qualified custodians, digital wallets and cryptocurrency exchanges. The company is not a custodian, is not a digital wallet and is not an exchange. Self-directed purchases processed through
2026-03-19 22:02:45
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To investors,
The year started with about as good of an economic setup as you could ask for. Inflation was rapidly falling. There was an AI-driven economic boom underway. Stocks were hovering at all-time high prices. Home affordability finally looked like relief was on the way. And there was a level of optimism held by investors that led to capital pouring into markets.
That all changed in the last few weeks as the United States has been locked in a kinetic conflict with Iran.
Last night that conflict took an even bigger negative turn. The first incident was an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field facilities, which damaged processing and refining infrastructure. This missile strike appears to have significantly impacted output from the facility.
In retaliation, Iran immediately lashed out and successfully struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City. This is a big deal because Ras Laffan is the world’s largest LNG export facility (approximately 20% of global supply). Just look at the destruction from videos surfacing in the aftermath:
Qatar has reported a number of other strikes on their oil and natural gas facilities throughout the country as well. American investors woke up to the news and markets are reacting negatively to the prospect of a crisis.
Daniel Lacalle writes “Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. An oil shock is quickly solved by non-OPEC supply, alternatives, and flexible systems. LNG is only 15% of the total gas market but very tight in supply and much more challenging to solve, adding to the problems of regasification and storage.”
The most interesting aspect of the market reaction over the last week is the conflicting signals coming from different alarm systems. Michael Gayed shows “bonds are pricing in recession while oil prices scream inflation. Both can't be right.”
But maybe both are right and we are headed towards very weird times. This stagflation-type situation would really throw a wrench in the booming economic times that illustrated the start of the year. CNBC discussed this well yesterday:
So the United States has a few things that need to be done immediately:
Secure the Strait of Hormuz and re-open the flow of oil to the world
Increase US production and export of oil, including deregulating the oil and gas industry so we can drill faster
Remove or reduce sanctions on various countries or oil to increase global flows
Release strategic reserves from the US and allies
Simply, the global battle over oil prices is on. The higher the price goes, the more pain Iran is able to inflict on the world. The lower the price goes, the more leash the United States and our allies will get with the conflict duration.
Unfortunately, the trend will be for higher oil prices. This means the US is on a shot clock. Quickly end the war and claim victory or risk pushing the US into recession in a mid-term year. It is hard to see a world where Trump will allow that to happen, so the entire market is waiting for the pivot.
The question is just how long will we be waiting. And only the guy in the White House knows the answer to that question. Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Bill Barhydt is the founder and CEO of Abra and a longtime leader in digital assets and crypto wealth management.
In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin’s relationship to global liquidity, money printing, and geopolitical risk, as well as why retail investors still drive crypto price action. We also cover new crypto regulation and the Clarity Act, Abra’s plans to go public via SPAC, the rise of tokenized equities and real-world assets, and how AI is transforming financial services and business operations.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-03-17 22:44:26
Borrow up to 50% of the value of your crypto holdings with Abra in a highly flexible open term loan. Your collateral is held in a separately managed account where you retain legal title to the assets. Rates are highly competitive, ranging from 4-7%APY.
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To investors,
War has broken out in the Middle East. Bombs, drones, and missiles are crisscrossing the region. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Oil prices keep pushing higher. Private credit cracks have turned into a tsunami of fear paralyzing Wall Street. And Apollo’s John Zito just issued a warning about private equity valuations.
To say there is chaos and carnage across financial markets would be an understatement.
Yet, investors are pouring capital into their favorite trade: AI stocks. The rapid allocation back into these high flying equities has as much to do with the macro environment as it does with the underlying stocks themselves.
On the macro front, investors are coming to terms with the idea that a war in Iran is going to have little to no effect on software technology companies. Could various forms of electricity needed for data centers get more expensive? Sure. But that is still a very small impact on the behemoth corporations that are printing cash at a pace never seen in human history.
We can also see the company-specific announcements driving increased investor demand as well. Meta is reportedly going to lay off 20% of their workforce and the stock jumped more than 2% yesterday. Nvidia jumped 1.6% after CEO Jensen Huang announced new components at their conference yesterday, before saying the company expects to do $1 trillion in revenue for its newest chip by the end of 2027. $1 trillion!
Tesla and Micron were both up on the day after making separate announcements about various production facilities that each company is building related to AI chips and memory. The news was fast and furious all day, but investors were prepared with plenty of dry powder as they poured capital back into the darlings of the stock market.
And I wouldn’t expect the stock market to start underperforming today. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick points out that St Patrick’s Day is historically the 7th best performing day of the year. Just look at all that green:
But the structural bull market in equities has some investors wondering what could happen in other areas of the market as geopolitical uncertainty persists. Brian Sozzi writes that according to the Bank of America fund manager survey, it appears “smart money [is] raising cash, [and] not expecting much on the economy.”
But all this raising of cash by fund managers is probably just another opportunity for smart investors to buy the dip. Creative Planning’s Peter Mallouk reminds us “Over the last 75 years, the average intra-year market drop has been 14%. If you are overly stressed out about the current 5% drawdown, the stock market isn’t for you. Downside volatility is the price investors pay for long-term outperformance.”
And if you are hoping the Federal Reserve will bail out the market with significant rate cuts, which is what they should have been doing over the last few months, Bob Elliot highlights that history shows us a Fed cut is unlikely.
He writes “there is a lot of hope that the Fed will cut further in response to this oil shock to support growth. Even a quick look at history shows at best the Fed pauses, and at worst hikes come to fight inflation.”
The increasing complexity of the current situation has institutional investors on their back foot. They may be pouring cash into AI stocks, but otherwise they are playing defense. It is hard to take big risks when the market is gyrating in this way. You don’t want to go tell your LPs how you screwed up their returns by trying to be the hero. It is much easier to take what the market gives you and simply claim “geopolitical volatility” drove your portfolio down with the market.
Individual investors are in a different situation. This is where sophisticated retail investors shine. They take big risks. They buy the dip. Volatility is their friend. They are hunting for opportunities when everyone else is scared. You have to love the cowboy nature of the people with real skin in the game. They are putting their own personal money at risk. They are trying to better their financial situation.
There are two types of investors in the world: those who run from risk and those who run towards it. This week is a perfect example of the how the difference shows up in the market.
Have a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Tom Sosnoff is a veteran trader and entrepreneur, the founder of LossDog, and the builder of multiple billion-dollar companies. In this conversation, we discuss why volatility creates opportunity, how he thinks about active investing across asset classes, and why he believes crypto deserves a place in every portfolio.
We also talk about options trading, oil and commodity volatility, the rise of self-directed investors, prediction markets, AI’s role in portfolio construction and financial advice, and how Tom is thinking about building the next generation of investing tools.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-03-16 22:36:56
Borrow up to 50% of the value of your crypto holdings with Abra in a highly flexible open term loan. Your collateral is held in a separately managed account where you retain legal title to the assets. Rates are highly competitive, ranging from 4-7%APY.
No interest payments are required during the life of the loan. There are no minimums or maximum loan sizes.
To learn more, click here. To set up an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
To investors,
Yesterday marked the 15th day since the start of the Iran bombings. While the United States and our allies have hit a reported 6,000 targets since the start of the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and there is no clear end date in sight.
Over those 15 days, we have seen most asset prices fall as investors try to make sense of the uncertainty. The Nasdaq is down 2%, the S&P is down just over 3%, gold is down 3.5% and TLT has fallen nearly 5% since February 28th.
But the two shining lights in investor portfolios are oil and bitcoin.
Oil is up approximately 45% because there is much less global oil production going on. Remember, about 20% of all global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, so if demand stays constant and supply drops materially, the price has to rise to accommodate everyone. Supply-demand from your Economics 101 class is essentially a law of the universe.
And it doesn’t seem to matter what announcements or actions are coming out of the White House right now. Many developed nations claimed they were going to collectively release 400 million barrels of oil. Trump was rumored to use the War Powers Act to facilitate more oil production in Southern California. We even saw the headline that the US military and our allies would help escort various ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
None of it changed reality though. Oil keeps appreciating in price and it likely won’t come down until the conflict is over, the uncertainty fades, and the Strait of Hormuz is opened again.
But the most interesting story to me in global finance is the performance of bitcoin. The digital currency has been trading with high correlation to software stocks over the last few months. But stocks are down, as is gold, yet bitcoin has appreciated approximately 10% since the first bomb was dropped on Iran.
On one hand, bitcoin is doing exactly what you would expect it to do. Bitcoin investors have long bragged about it being decentralized and uncorrelated, so the chaos hedge is doing its job during global turmoil. On the other hand, bitcoin has become much more popular in institutional portfolios, hence the software stock correlation, so my guess is that non-institutional buyers are rushing to the largest digital asset looking for safety.
It is almost like the world is remembering that bitcoin is a borderless asset that operates outside the traditional financial system. Or that bitcoin serves as the most sensitive macro asset to global liquidity, so price appreciation will be basically guaranteed if nation states need to print money to fund the ongoing war for a prolonged period of time.
If bitcoin’s outperformance continues, I would expect sophisticated investors to begin looking at the asset more deeply. They dream of having a non-sovereign, geopolitical hedge to add to their portfolios for moments like this. Historically, these investors were highly skeptical of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry. Many of them doubted the longevity of the asset or they questioned the unpredictability of an 80 vol asset.
Those fears and concerns will quickly dissipate if bitcoin is perceived to pass this geopolitical test. Investors put capital where their confidence grows. And bitcoin’s best argument right now is not hype, but instead substance. Performance is a hell of a drug.
The global asset scoreboard has bitcoin beating most of its peers. If that outperformance continues, bitcoin is going to have a lot of new friends in the coming months.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss the growing cracks in private credit, rising oil prices, inflation pressures, and why Jordy believes the market is underestimating the risk of a broader financial shock.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.