2026-01-12 23:03:35
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To investors,
News broke last night that the Department of Justice has opened an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over comments he made while testifying about renovations to the Federal Reserve building.
This development comes after months of disagreement about monetary policy between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve. Before we get into what is likely to happen with this investigation and how it will impact the market, I want to remind everyone of the context.
The investigation centers on whether Powell made false or misleading statements to Congress during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025. This testimony addressed the Federal Reserve’s ongoing multi-year renovation project for its headquarters buildings in Washington, D.C., which is estimated to cost around $2.5 billion and has experienced significant cost overruns (reportedly around $600-700 million).
Key points of contention include:
Powell allegedly denied or downplayed the inclusion of certain luxury or non-essential features in the final project plans, such as private elevators, premium marble, water features/fountains, a VIP dining room, a rooftop terrace garden, and other upgrades.
These features appeared in earlier project documents submitted to bodies like the National Capital Planning Commission, but Powell stated during testimony that many had been removed or were not part of the current scope, attributing cost increases to factors like inflation in materials/labor, asbestos removal, soil contamination, and accessibility requirements.
Critics (including some Republican lawmakers and Trump administration figures) claim these statements were inaccurate or deceptive, potentially constituting perjury or false statements to Congress.
The probe announced last night involves analyzing Powell’s public statements (including the congressional testimony), reviewing spending records, and other documents related to the renovation.
An important point is that the renovation was reportedly approved in November 2025 by U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro (a Trump appointee). Prosecutors have contacted Powell’s staff for documents, and on Friday, January 9, 2026, the DOJ served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas threatening a potential criminal indictment tied to the June testimony.
After the New York Times broke the story of the investigation, Jerome Powell released a video message defending his actions and calling into question the motivation behind the investigation. Powell said:
“This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings… Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.”
There are a few takeaways I had from this response. First, Powell posted a video response to the allegations within minutes of the New York Times report being published. That seems highly suspicious. It takes time to create a script, record a video, edit the video, and get it posted online. The Federal Reserve is not exactly known as a world class content creator, so my guess is that the Fed or Powell are the ones who leaked the investigation to the media.
There is nothing wrong with that decision per se, but it does beg the question of why would the Fed or Powell want to create a flame war in the public eye? I don’t know the answer. I suspect we will get answers later that provide clarity in hindsight.
Second, the response seemed much more focused on the argument “this is political!” than denying the allegations. I have learned over time that the more someone yells about something, the more likely they are hiding something about it. As one user on X said, the response can usually tell you more than the initial accusation.
This means that Powell is probably more political than most people realize. I wouldn’t blame him. The President and the administration have been pressuring him for months. It is human nature to dislike someone attacking you or to want to get revenge. It wouldn’t make the decision to succumb to politics the right decision, but it is understandable how humans get into these situations.
In order to understand what is happening with the Federal Reserve renovations, you have to ignore the noise and go to the source material. I spent the morning digging through the National Capital Planning Commission’s materials on previous meetings and current plans for this renovation.
Here is how they describe the project:
“The Federal Reserve Board is proposing to renovate and expand the Eccles Building and the FRB-East Building to address a critical backlog of upgrades; respond to changes in building codes and regulatory requirements, accommodate information technology requirements, building security provisions, advancements in environmental awareness and energy efficiency; and address increased utility demands and associated requirements imposed by an increased building population.”
The big controversy in these renovations is how expensive everything has become. The Fed was originally going to spend approximately $1.9 billion, which would have been fairly absurd by itself, but the costs have now ballooned to an estimated $3.1 billion due to delays and cost overruns.
These are renderings of the renovations being done:
One of the problems here is that the Federal Reserve is using taxpayer money to make these renovations. This is objectively insane. Half of the population is complaining about being unable to afford a normal life, plus the country is broke and in trillions of dollars of debt, yet the central bank is lavishly spending on a castle fit for a king.
Compare this to the White House ballroom that has been announced. The ballroom is being funded through private donations and allegedly will not use public taxpayer money.
So regardless of the political nature of this whole thing, the American people should get an answer as to why their tax dollars are being used for this wasteful situation.
My guess is the revelation last night is not going to change anyone’s mind in politics. If you liked Trump before the weekend, you are going to defend the DOJ’s actions. You will argue there should be a full investigation on whether the Fed Chairman lied to Congress.
That doesn’t seem unreasonable to ensure no one is above the law.
If you did not like Trump before the weekend, you are going to condemn this development as being unhelpful to the country’s long-term success. That doesn’t seem unreasonable either.
See, this is the thing about controversial current events…usually both sides have a hint of truth to them. In this case, Powell should be held accountable if he misled Congress. We should also be very concerned if the legal system is being weaponized by any administration, regardless of political party.
The hard part about coming to a conclusion on this situation is that we don’t yet have all the information. I am reserving the right to make up my mind at a later date when we have that information. The only thing I feel strongly about at the moment is the egregious wasting of taxpayer money to fund the unnecessarily lavish renovations of an office building.
The United States and its leaders need to get serious about stopping waste, fraud, and abuse. Sometimes those issues are hiding in daycares in Minnesota and other times they may be hiding in plain sight in Washington DC.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
🚨 READER NOTE: We’re officially one month out from Bitcoin Investor Week 2026, happening Feb 9th – 13th in NYC.
Join thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.
**To kick off the new year, we’re offering 50% off General Admission tickets for the next 48 hours. Use code NEWYEAR50 at sign-up.**
Expect fireside chats, panels, networking events across the city and a top lineup of speakers including Mike Novogratz, Grant Cardone, Anthony Scaramucci, Jan van Eck, Fred Thiel, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, and Bo Hines — with more announcements coming soon.
🎟️ Tickets are limited. Buy yours at www.bitcoininvestorweek.com
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with over 30 years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss the shift toward higher growth and lower inflation, how AI-driven productivity is reshaping the economy, housing, labor markets, and why energy and critical minerals are becoming central to global geopolitics. We also break down what these trends mean for markets and long-term investment portfolios.
Enjoy!
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2026-01-09 22:00:28
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To investors,
The economic policies of the Trump administration have been highly controversial. Whether it was the blanket tariffs, the constant pressure for lower interest rates, or the widespread deportation efforts, economists have been screeching about the negative impacts these decisions would bring.
Recent data suggests the economists were wrong though.
Just this week we got news that the United States trade deficit has dropped to the lowest level since 2009. Ana Swanson writes for the New York Times:
“The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank to $29.4 billion in October, down from $48.1 billion the prior month as the Trump administration’s tariffs reshaped global trade, data from the Commerce Department showed on Thursday.
The figure was the lowest monthly trade deficit recorded since June 2009. U.S. imports have fallen while exports have remained strong, decreasing the trade deficit and seemingly accomplishing a major goal for President Trump.”
The shrinking trade deficit is not the only place that we are seeing the positive impact of these economic policies. The Atlanta Fed is now reporting that Q4 GDP growth could come in as high as 5.4%, which is a monster number compared to the 3.2% GDP growth that the US has averaged going back to 1947.
This explosion of GDP growth lines up with the recent predictions of 6%+ growth expectations from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and others in the administration.
Lutnick was on CNBC a few weeks ago and said:
“Real GDP growth! Not 2% nonsense. This $30T economy can grow 4%, 5%, and under President Trump, you’re gonna see it grow 6%! People think, it’s impossible? Lower rates, lower energy, you have that growth, you’re gonna fix America.”
In addition to this 6% GDP promise, Steve Rattner points out that “productivity growth rose to 4.9% in Q3,” which further corroborates the economic boom we are living through. But maybe the most impressive part of the economic results is that inflation has continued to stay muted through this growth period.
Truflation is now reporting year-over-year inflation is 1.9% and falling fast.
A big reason why inflation is surprising people to the downside is because most of the classically trained economists expected tariffs to be a highly inflationary situation. They were predicting empty shelves and the next Great Depression last April.
🚨 The rest of this letter is for paid subscribers of The Pomp Letter. If you would like to understand the economic policies driving high growth and low inflation, along with how Anthony predicts GDP growth evolving in 2026, please subscribe to read the rest of the letter.
You currently receive The Pomp Letter 1x per week. Paid subscribers receive the letter 3x per week and get Anthony’s personal views and opinions on the latest developments in financial markets, including various investment opportunities he is excited about.
🚨 READER NOTE: We’re officially one month out from Bitcoin Investor Week 2026, happening Feb 9th – 13th in NYC.
Join thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.
**To kick off the new year, we’re offering 50% off General Admission tickets for the next 48 hours. Use code NEWYEAR50 at sign-up.**
Expect fireside chats, panels, networking events across the city and a top lineup of speakers including Mike Novogratz, Grant Cardone, Anthony Scaramucci, Jan van Eck, Fred Thiel, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, and Bo Hines — with more announcements coming soon.
🎟️ Tickets are limited. Buy yours at www.bitcoininvestorweek.com
2026-01-09 21:57:51
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2026-01-07 23:18:06
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To Investors,
I have spent the last few days thinking about why bitcoin underperformed expectations in 2025. My conclusion is that multiple trends, forces, and developments came together to create the perfect storm for the digital currency to end the year lower than where it started.
First, bitcoin is much less risky today than at any other point in the history of the asset. No one believes the US government is going to shut bitcoin down. The government isn’t going to come and arrest bitcoin holders. There is true decentralization, including from individual retail investors to the largest financial institutions in the world.
This decentralization removes the risk of a 51% attack, along with other nefarious actions that could fundamentally change the bitcoin value proposition. Bitcoin has also gone through numerous economic situations without failing or going to $0. The digital asset has dropped ~80% numerous times, weathered the COVID liquidity crisis, resisted the FTX collapse, and then survived the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates at the fastest pace in history.
This proven resilience means that the risk of holding bitcoin is low. Add in the fact that many of the top financial institutions in the world are embracing the asset and it becomes very difficult to see a scenario where bitcoin “fails.” Because of this newfound conviction in bitcoin’s continued success, we should all expect a lower return moving forward.
Buying bitcoin a decade ago was high risk, high reward. Buying bitcoin today is low risk, medium reward. I expect bitcoin to continue outperforming the stock market indexes over the next decade, but it won’t deliver the 80%+ compound annual growth rate that we enjoyed in the past.
Bitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against chaos and economic uncertainty. When wars break out, and citizens around the world feel it will be necessary to resist censorship and seizures, bitcoin becomes an attractive asset.
However, since President Trump took office there has been more global stability than before. The Israel/Hamas conflict is over. Russia and Ukraine are closer to signing a peace deal than ever before. Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been drastically reduced. The southern border is closed. And former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was removed from his country over the weekend.
This “peace through strength” approach is really about the United States returning to its position atop the global world order. There are consequences for people who get out of line. Bad people understand that the US will hunt them down to capture or kill them.
All of this creates less chaos and more predictable geopolitical relationships. If there is less chaos, then the chaos hedge (bitcoin) is not sought after like it would otherwise be.
Bitcoin was a long-only game for most of the last 15 years. Anyone with an internet connection could acquire the asset and hold it while they hoped the price went higher. Once Wall Street and the large financial institutions got involved, the game changed substantially.
You can think of these changes as a way of “civilizing” bitcoin. Many of the early bitcoiners, who are more akin to cowboys, don’t want to be civilized though. They were attracted to the asymmetric returns and they loved the fact that bitcoin had a libertarian flavor to it. The more “outside the system” bitcoin was, the more these cowboys wanted to buy.
Now that bitcoin is being pulled into the legacy financial system (ETFs, treasury companies, funds, options, etc), early holders of bitcoin are exiting at a higher pace than normal. Some of them are selling their bitcoin outright. Others are using complex financial structures to reduce tax burdens, including renouncing US citizenship.
But ProCap Financial CIO Jeff Park points out that some OGs are intelligently using options to sell away the upside of their bitcoin exposure in exchange for yield. These covered call strategies are applying significant pressure on bitcoin’s price, which is contributing to the asset’s lack of upside movement.
Lastly, bitcoin has historically been the most popular asset available to investors seeking extreme asymmetry and volatility. If you wanted to make a lot of money, you probably wanted to have some bitcoin.
Bitcoin can no longer claim that exclusive title anymore. Investors are being bombarded with artificial intelligence, prediction markets, self-driving cars, humanoid robots, rockets, drones, brain computer interfaces, nuclear energy, and many other groundbreaking technologies.
This is a great time to be a risk-taker. You have a buffet of opportunities to put in your portfolio. This increased opportunity set fractures the capital, verbal conversation, and mental energy that would have been devoted to bitcoin.
As I have been thinking about bitcoin’s performance last year, I did my best to argue the opposite of my view as well. The best counterargument would be gold. Gold isn’t the sexiest asset. The precious metal is supposed to be a chaos hedge as well. Gold has been part of the legacy financial system for decades.
But gold had the best year in the history of the asset in 2025. So bitcoin’s price not only disappointed, but it did so while another sound money asset was putting in historic numbers. Does that mean my analysis is wrong? Not necessarily.
Bitcoin is a younger, smaller asset. There are individual public companies with a larger market cap than the entire bitcoin market cap. So it wouldn’t surprise me if bitcoin’s disappointing performance is attached to the transition the asset went through over the last 18 months. Macro investor Jordi Visser has called this the “bitcoin IPO moment.”
The argument to own bitcoin has always been a version of “bitcoin is a digital, decentralized, store-of-value asset that has a finite supply and programmatic monetary policy, which can be audited by anyone at any time.”
Regardless of the market conditions, or the behavior of various holder cohorts, I still believe the argument to own bitcoin is very strong. It is a substantial percentage of my personal net worth and I ended 2025 with more bitcoin than I started the year with.
As the late Charlie Munger once said, “The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.”
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
🚨 READER NOTE: We’re officially one month out from Bitcoin Investor Week 2026, happening Feb 9th – 13th in NYC.
Join thousands of sophisticated investors and institutional leaders to discuss Bitcoin’s impact on the global economy, corporate balance sheets, and personal portfolios.
**To kick off the new year, we’re offering 50% off General Admission tickets for the next 48 hours. Use code NEWYEAR50 at sign-up.**
Expect fireside chats, panels, networking events across the city and a top lineup of speakers including Mike Novogratz, Grant Cardone, Anthony Scaramucci, Jan van Eck, Fred Thiel, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, and Bo Hines — with more announcements coming soon.
🎟️ Tickets are limited. Buy yours at www.bitcoininvestorweek.com
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the key lessons from 2025 and what to watch in 2026. We cover the assets and trends shaping the next cycle, the rapid impact of artificial intelligence on productivity, GDP, economic growth, and how individuals can use these tools to create more value in their work and lives.
We also dive into bitcoin, AI’s role in markets, and practical takeaways you can apply immediately.
Enjoy!
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Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
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Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining now.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-12-22 21:51:21
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To investors,
Retail investors have been “buying the dip” for years and it has proven to be a great investment strategy. But this idea is not new. Decades ago, Jesse Livermore spoke often about buying weakness within positive trends. Benjamin Graham started, and Warren Buffett popularized, the idea of value investing (or buying things for less than they are worth).
Those timeless investing principles wrapped in clinical language were unlikely to resonate with young people in a social media generation. But you know what would spread like wildfire? Four letters regurgitated over and over again across the internet…BTFD.
Buy The F***ing Dip.
I can’t tell you how many times I have seen those four letters posted online. They are the rallying cry for a generation of investors who realize they are playing a game of chicken with the Federal Reserve, but America’s central bank will always blink first.
Wall Street Journal reporter Gunjan Banerji highlights recent Bank of America data showing that “the buy-the-dip trade is having one of its strongest years of the past century.”
This graphic perfectly encapsulates what retail investors inherently know: the Fed has no choice but to prop up the market.
They can’t allow the stock market to fail, nor can they standby while the market hits a free fall. This is why I have continuously said for years that prolonged bear markets have been outlawed.
We can get sharp market drops, such as during COVID or the tariff panic earlier this year, but the government/Fed/Treasury will always step in and ensure asset prices go right back to all-time high prices.
This is an important backdrop because it puts immense pressure on the mainstream narrative that consumers are pessimistic about the economy. For example, Adam Kobeissi shows “the US consumer sentiment assessment of current economic conditions has declined to 50.4 points, the lowest level on record.”
Adam is just sharing the data that is being published by the University of Michigan. But this data is obviously wrong. There is no way that consumers collectively are the most pessimistic they have ever been on the economy.
Do you know how I know that? Because half of the country believes the exact opposite of what the University of Michigan is telling you. Take Fox Business host Larry Kudlow as a recent example. He tweeted “get ready for Trump's 5% economy. We haven’t done it for over 40 years, but I believe it well could happen next year, and or the year after that. Everybody is underestimating President Trump's re-imagination and rejuvenation of a new capitalist path to prosperity.”
The White House’s David Sacks reposted Kudlow’s comments with additional color:
“Kudlow is right: inflation is coming down, interest rates are coming down, and tax cuts are coming in 2026. These are the conditions for a Reagan-like economic boom. Just as important, we have an AI investment super-cycle driving an extra 2% of GDP growth. Democrats like Bernie Sanders have figured this out, so they are doing everything they can to sabotage the infrastructure build-out. Republicans should not be gaslit about this. As with Climate Change, most of the concerns have been amplified to hoax level.”
This tweet echos thoughts that David Sacks shared on the recent episode of the All-In podcast. Take a listen:
Again, you may believe the economy is doing well or you may believe it is doing poorly. Regardless of which side of the debate you are on, there is about half the country that believes the exact opposite. And the data suggests investors are very bullish.
Kobeissi explains “Investors are piling into equity ETFs at a record pace. The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, posted +$40 billion in inflows last week, the largest intake this year. Year-to-date, $VOO net inflows are now up to +$163 billion, the largest on record for a single ETF.”
The enthusiasm in markets is not just from retail investors either. The Financial Times recently reported “macro hedge funds are enjoying their best year since at least 2008…an index from data provider HFR tracking the returns of such funds — which aim to profit from economic trends by trading equities, bonds and commodities — was up 16% at the end of November.”
This brings me back to buying the dip. Retail investors figured out the Fed’s put and they have been aggressive buyers whenever there is weakness in the market. Institutional investors are starting to catch on to the game too. Think about it…where else are you going to put your capital? Are you going to sell stocks to sit in US dollars or Treasuries that are guaranteed to lose value over time?
No, of course not. As long as the government will print money and debase the dollar, stocks will go up forever. Maybe you have to ride out a little volatility, but holding public equity indexes is most likely one of the simplest strategies that works in finance.
And if the S&P or similar index wants to dip for a few days? There will be a line out the door of people ready to buy more.
Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience and the writer behind the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the latest CPI data, what it means for the Fed’s next moves, artificial intelligence — how it’s changing the way people work, learn, and create an edge in their careers.
We also cover bitcoin, macro positioning, and specific companies and organizations investors should be paying attention to right now.
Enjoy!
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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.