2026-04-12 21:54:25
To investors,
I normally don’t write a letter to you on Sunday morning, but I wanted to highlight a very interesting research report that came from ProCap Insights over the past week. The report looks at the impact of AI on the job market, including an analysis of whether artificial intelligence is stealing human jobs.
One of the most eye-opening conclusions was artificial intelligence has a disproportionate negative impact on young people compared to their older peers. The report explains:
In August 2025, researchers at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab published what may be the most important labor market study of the AI era. Erik Brynjolfsson, Chinchih Chen, and others analyzed employment trends across occupations ranked by AI exposure. Their findings shatter both narratives simultaneously.
Workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations experienced a 16% relative decline in employment since late 2022, after controlling for firm-level shocks. Young software developers specifically saw employment fall 20% below its late fall 2022 peak by mid-2025. Early-career customer service workers declined 11% from their November 2022 peak.
But workers aged 30 and over in those exact same high-AI-exposure occupations saw employment grow between 6% and 12% over the same period. The labor market did not shrink in these sectors. It bifurcated.
The mechanism is consistent with how AI tools interact with the labor force. AI handles a growing share of rules-based, structured tasks traditionally assigned to junior workers, from drafting emails and writing boilerplate code to summarizing documents and handling tier-one customer queries. Senior workers, whose value comes from tacit knowledge, judgment, and soft skills, are not displaced by these same tools.
They are augmented by it. One experienced developer with Copilot produces what previously required a team of three juniors.
JPMorgan’s Aliaga found the same dynamic. Over one-third of U.S. workers now use generative AI for job tasks, but the St. Louis Fed estimates generative AI accounts for just 5.7% of total work hours as of mid-2025. That 5.7% falls disproportionately on the repetitive, entry-level work that defined the first rung of most professional careers.
Goldman Sachs estimates that two-thirds of U.S. occupations have AI exposure, but only 6% to 7% of workers face genuine displacement risk. The rest face augmentation, and augmentation benefits the experienced.
This data makes sense when you realize that artificial intelligence is going to eat into the work force from the bottom up. As the technology improves, it will take over more complex and senior tasks, but until we reach that level of innovation it will be the young people who are affected the most.
But the story is not only age-specific.
The ProCap Insights report, which is generated through an agentic AI system, identifies major pain underway in the publishing and media industries. The report explains:
BLS establishment survey data reveals which sectors are already living in the post-AI labor market. Motion picture and sound recording employment has fallen 18.9% since January 2023, from 415,900 to 337,400 workers. Publishing industries employment declined 5.8% over the same period, from 958,500 to 902,800. These are content-creation sectors where AI tools directly substitute for junior and mid-level creative labor.
Meanwhile, professional, scientific, and technical services, the largest white-collar sector, grew just 0.9% over three years. That 0.9% translates to roughly 97,000 jobs added in a sector of 10.8 million, a pace that barely keeps up with population growth.
The sector is not contracting. It is calcifying.
The Harvard Business School research published in March 2026 reinforces this. Analyzing nearly all U.S. job postings from 2019 through March 2025, researchers found that automation-prone roles saw a 13% decrease in postings since ChatGPT’s launch, while analytical, technical, and creative roles saw a 20% increase. Job postings for automation-prone occupations also required 7% fewer skills.
Employers are not just posting fewer jobs. They are posting simpler ones, consistent with AI tools absorbing the complexity that once required a dedicated human.
Generative AI is very good at producing content, so it makes sense that content-focused industries are coming under pressure. Remember, this is the worse the technology will ever be, so we should expect an acceleration from here.
I continue to tell people that three areas of media will be safe from AI disruption: scoops, long-form profiles, and live coverage. But I believe people can insulate themselves from being negatively affected by AI if they can become AI proficient. There is not a company in the world that is going to fire employees who are the best at using AI internally.
Instead, companies are going to promote these people, give them more responsibilities, and likely pay them more money over time. Don’t sit around and be disrupted. Learn to use the tools and technology. This is true whether you are a professional investor or a casual individual investor.
Superhuman intelligence is now abundantly available. The only limiting factor is your curiosity and persistence.
Before I let you go, I highly suggest subscribing to ProCap Insights. We built an AI system to dig through mountains of data to identify unique or undiscovered insights, then the AI analyzes the data, fact checks the information, and writes the full report without human intervention.
The company published a ton of research this week, including 3 stocks that could benefit if oil falls below $80, 2 stocks Meta inadvertently boosted with its new AI model, 2 stocks that could rally big with stagflation signals flashing, and an airline stock that will fly if the Iran conflict doesn’t end soon.
If you subscribed before midnight tonight, you will get 60% off an annual subscription.
I hope you found this letter valuable. Have a great end to your weekend and I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
2026-04-09 22:25:17
Use Democratized Prime to earn ~8.5% APY, a one of a kind DeFi product where your crypto earns for you against RWA (real world assets).
Figure also offers one of the lowest rates on their Crypto Backed Loans at 8% @ 50% LTV.
Sign up now and earn $50 when you make your first deposit, earn ~8.5% yield, or take out a Crypto Backed Loan with their low rates today!1
To investors,
The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire earlier this week contingent on a few conditions, including the Strait of Hormuz being reopened. Iran seems to be in agreement to open the Strait, but the Financial Times is reporting that the Middle Eastern country wants to be paid a tax of $1 per barrel of oil that goes through the waterway.
That demand does not seem out of the ordinary. But the FT also reported that Iran is demanding payment in bitcoin for this tax. That detail is potentially explosive if true.
This would be the first time that warring countries would be publicly agreeing to use bitcoin as a key component of a peace deal. The development is not shocking to the bitcoin community though. We have been saying for years that bitcoin is a digital, decentralized, non-sovereign, neutral asset that can be used by anyone in the world.
If two countries don’t trust each other, they can use bitcoin to settle transactions of economic value. The US has shown that dollars can’t be used for this purpose after the leading western nation aggressively sanctioned Russia and its oligarchs after the invasion of Ukraine. The US and multi-national corporations are not going to pay in yuan, yen, euro, or other fiat currencies.
Gold is too difficult to use because of the lack of portability and speed in a transaction. One other option would have been stablecoins, but those can be frozen, blocked, and confiscated as well. That risk is likely too high for Iran, which finds itself fighting against the greatest military the world has ever assembled.
This is not the first time that bitcoin has been used on the geopolitical stage. China’s hot and cold relationship with mining over the years has been well documented, along with various one-off bi-lateral trade agreements that were settled in bitcoin.
The United States intelligence agencies have been using bitcoin for awhile as well. I sat down with Michael Ellis, the deputy director of the CIA, last year and he explained to me how the agency looks at the digital currency:
Now the counter-argument to the importance of Iran’s announcement would be that the gulf country is not actually accepting bitcoin. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes eloquently wrote “I’ll believe Iran is charging a toll in bitcoin when I see a [transaction] linked to a vessel’s toll payment. Otherwise it’s just the IRGC trolling the western filthy fiat financial system.”
But regardless of whether the Iran government is actually accepting bitcoin or not, the narrative has gone viral globally and that may be the most important aspect of the story. Bitcoin is an idea’s time that has come.
How do we know?
Because on the same day that news broke of bitcoin’s role in a peace deal to end a war, Morgan Stanley launched their bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley is one of the largest financial institutions in the world and happens to be one of the longest standing investment banks on Wall Street.
It may appear Morgan Stanley is late to the game, but the organization is coming in hot and heavy. They are launching with a expense fee of 0.14%, which is the lowest in the market. That type of pricing pressure should force the hand of other players in the market, which could lead to more inflows over time.
I find it interesting that we are still getting “barbell news” in the bitcoin industry. The traditional financial firms want bitcoin to be a grown up asset they can package and sell to their clients, while the most violent criminals and terrorists in the world are flocking to the asset as a last resort to solve their unique problems.
It may be uncomfortable for people to recognize but this is what true product-market fit looks like. Bitcoin is attractive to different people for different reasons. If you need to store economic value for a period of time, bitcoin is a great option. If you need to prevent others from taking that economic value, bitcoin may in the only option.
It is exciting to see how far we have come in the last 15 years or so. But something tells me this story is not over and the next 15 years will be even more impressive.
I hope you all have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
I sat down to explain why bitcoin is holding strong while stocks, bonds, and gold decline amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. I also breakdown ETF demand, long-term holder accumulation, and why bitcoin continues to benefit from global liquidity and money printing, while addressing common risks and criticisms.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-07 20:31:15
To investors,
The Age of Automation is upon us. I have been writing about it and tweeting about it for almost a decade. Take Bitcoin as an example. It is an automated central bank that continues to manage the most disciplined and transparent monetary policy in the world.
Even the skeptics have to admit that the idea has been adopted by hundreds of millions of people globally.
But now automation is going to come for the rest of finance. The recent tech innovations related to artificial intelligence will allow new financial firms to be built with armies of AI agents that replace hundreds of human employees.
I know this because I am actively building ProCap Financial, the first publicly traded agentic finance firm.
Our first product, called Silvia, has automated away many of the consumer finance functions at large institutions. Rather than hire lots of people, we are able to help thousands of multi-millionaires gain better insights into their portfolios leveraging the latest AI models and a suite of proprietary agents.
Silvia has more than $30 billion of assets on the platform in under a year. The average user has a net worth of at least $2.5 million and they ask Silvia about 18 questions per week. Like I said, the age of automation is upon us.
But we are not stopping at consumer finance. Our goal is to build a financial firm that automates the products and services from traditional players, but does it with AI agents in pursuit of helping independent investors make money.
With this perspective as context, I am happy to share that ProCap Financial is releasing it’s second product today: ProCap Insights.
ProCap Insights is the research division of the company, but it also happens to be the first agentic research shop on Wall Street. We only have one human overseeing the AI system being used to conduct research, write the analysis, and publish the reports.
I fundamentally believe the machines are smarter than the humans. AI is very good at finding hidden insights across financial markets. The same technology allows us to create research faster and cheaper than human teams too. This is what real automation looks like.
The big focus of ProCap Insights is to help you make money. Some of the initial research we are launching with includes:
You can read about the launch of ProCap Insights in the Wall Street Journal this morning: Click here. Or you can watch part of my segment from this morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box:
If you are looking for investment ideas and believe that AI is smarter than humans, you should consider subscribing to ProCap Insights. Anyone who subscribes in the next 48 hours will get grandfathered in at a 60% discount to the normal price.
We are laser-focused on helping independent investors make money. And the AI agents are helping us answer your questions via Silvia, or surface interesting investment ideas via Insights.
We will keep building even more.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-06 22:04:44
Memecoins are a multi-billion dollar asset class, and the infrastructure around them is maturing fast.
Moonshot, now part of the Jupiter ecosystem, is one of the most widely used mobile platforms for trading them, with over two million users and direct fiat on-ramps powered by MoonPay. Fund your self-custodial wallet in seconds using a card, Apple Pay, PayPal, or bank transfer. Every transaction settles on-chain. Every asset stays in your control.
Moonshot handles discovery and execution. MoonPay handles the money movement. Whether you allocate to memecoins or simply want to understand where retail attention is flowing, the infrastructure is already built.
To investors,
Jamie Dimon, CEO of the world’s largest bank, dropped his annual letter this morning and it is filled with noteworthy comments. Most interesting to me, Dimon decided to use the letter as a vessel for reinforcing the American values, while calling for a country-wide recommitment to the ideals that built the greatest nation on earth.
He writes now is “the perfect time to rededicate ourselves to the values that made this great nation of ours — freedom, liberty and opportunity.
The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China. Even in troubled times, we have confidence that America will do what it has always done — look to the values that have defined our singular nation and sustained our leadership of the free world.”
This optimistic message from one of the country’s most important business leaders comes in stark contrast to the mainstream media headlines in recent weeks. Those headlines make it sound like the world is ending and a catastrophic recession is right around the corner. Oil is spiking. Bombs are dropping. The Strait is closed. Gas prices are surging. And sky high inflation will be here any day now.
But a very different story emerges if you zoom out and actually look at the data. Simply, the conflict in Iran is not breaking the US economy. Instead, it is reinforcing just how dominant America has become.
Let’s start with the fact that the United States is no longer an energy-dependent country. According to the EIA, America has been an energy net exporter since 2019. That is a complete reversal from decades of vulnerability. There is a wide margin between what we export compared to what we import, which is mainly driven by the pesky detail that US crude production is running at roughly 13.6 million barrels per day.
This makes America the largest energy producer in the world.
Now does the US still import some crude oil? Yes, but that is mostly due to edge cases related to refining efficiency and logistics. What really matters is the net position and America exports far more petroleum products than it brings in. This is important to understand because when global energy prices rise, the US counterintuitively profits at the national level from the upside of higher energy prices.
This is a dramatic change from how these situations used to play out. If we go back to the 1973 oil embargo, the US was heavily dependent on foreign oil. Supply shocks led to long gas lines, soaring inflation, and a real hit to economic growth. Energy was a weakness and market commentators rightfully were worried. In the modern economy, energy is much closer to a strategic asset though.
Greg Ip explains in the Wall Street Journal how this new position of leadership atop the world of energy has empowered the current administration to make geopolitical moves that were previously thought unwise or impossible:
“Trump’s revamping of the U.S. role in world security and trade now extends to oil. No longer does the U.S. see itself as the guarantor of international stability and norms, but rather as a self-interested actor using control of oil to enhance its own power.
The U.S. became an energy superpower through serendipity and policy. The shale revolution vastly increased domestic oil and gas production, while federal and state policy and the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities made that output available to the world.
In the process, oil and gas became key contributors to U.S. economic growth and prestige. The U.S. earns more from exports of LNG than of corn and soybeans, and twice as much as it does on movie and TV content, S&P Global reports.
Fossil fuels are foundational to Trump’s vision not just of domestic prosperity but international clout. He created a National Energy Dominance Council shortly after taking office, and his National Security Strategy, issued last November, calls “American energy dominance” a “top strategic priority.””
But this is where investors really need to dig into the data. Even with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and oil pushing above $100, the impact on the US economy looks surprisingly contained. Estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs suggest that every $10 increase in oil prices reduces US GDP growth by about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points while adding a modest bump to inflation. That is not nothing, but it is manageable. Especially when you compare it to Europe or parts of Asia, where economies are still heavily dependent on imported energy and feel these shocks much more directly.
Now let’s zoom out to the broader economy and the resilience becomes even clearer. Forecasts still call for around 2.2 percent real GDP growth in 2026. That is slightly lower than earlier expectations, but it is nowhere near recession territory. Unemployment remains in the low 4% range. Consumer spending continues to be strong and nothing in the labor market suggests catastrophe is on the horizon.
Even the Federal Reserve is remaining calm and not signaling panic. The central bank’s expectation is that the conflict may nudge inflation higher, but it is unlikely to materially derail growth unless oil prices spike to extreme levels. Most Wall Street analysts view that as a low probability scenario.
This brings us to a very weird second-order effect from the current geopolitical uncertainty. While everyone is focused on the short-term impact to oil, gas, and potentially inflation, the United States is gaining immense leverage on the global stage.
I know it is not popular to talk about this, especially when we are still striking Iran, but it is essential to recognize what is happening so you can allocate capital appropriately for the coming years ahead.
America is now one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG and refined petroleum products. That gives us real economic and geopolitical power. Many of our European allies now rely heavily on American LNG and they are increasingly tied to US supply for their own stability. Higher global prices reinforce that relationship and accelerate the shift away from less reliable or hostile energy sources.
At the same time, the domestic US economy benefits from relatively abundant and cheaper energy. That matters more than people think and it is not something that is being widely covered. Manufacturing, data centers, and AI infrastructure all depend on consistent, affordable power. While other regions deal with higher input costs, the US remains better positioned to scale due to our lower sensitivity to the higher energy prices.
Before I get a barrage of responses saying to “look at gas prices!” or calling me an idiot, none of this analysis means there are no downsides. Of course there are downsides. Consumers feel higher gas prices at the pump in the short term. Sentiment goes down and discretionary spending gets tighter. These microeconomic factors are not immune to realities in commodities, but at the macro level the picture is much stronger than headlines suggest.
This is a classic case of macro vs micro economics. And it begs the question of what the administration is optimizing for? I don’t have that answer, but they have continued to say it is Main Street’s turn to enjoy economic abundance, because they believe Wall Street has captured enough. The problem with that statement is that you have to balance the nation’s economic health with the every day experience of American citizens who struggle to pay an extra dollar per gallon of gas each week.
This is where so much of the debate gets lost in my opinion. It is very easy to write articles about the price of gas or the promised impact on higher inflation reports that are yet to surface, but those details are unlikely to drown out the macro benefits accruing to the United States.
The Iran conflict is not exposing cracks in the system. It will not crash the US economy, nor will it deliver sky-high inflation similar to what we saw during COVID. Instead, the current situation is revealing just how much more resilient and dominant the American economy has become.
And over a long period of time, that is a great development for Americans even if we don’t feel it on a day-to-day basis.
Have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-03 23:12:24
Tax season is here and the April 15 deadline is closer than it feels. Summ (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) connects to 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and blockchains with deep on-chain coverage for DeFi, DEXs, NFTs, staking, airdrops, and complex on-chain activity. The result is clear, expla ,inable tax reports built on validated data that stand up when it matters.
Summ integrates directly with TurboTax and is an official tax partner of both MetaMask and Coinbase.
Use code POMP20 for 20% off your first year.
To investors,
Stock investors are throwing a party as we end the week. Markets have come back from the dead and snapped a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow gained 3.0%. People are not going to complain about green candles after weeks of red.
On the surface, it looks like risk appetite is back and Q2 is off to a strong start. But underneath the rally, the latest labor market data tells a more cautious story. That gap between what markets are doing and what the data is saying is where investors need to focus in my opinion.
The March jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000. This rebound from February’s decline of 133,000 has people excited for obvious reasons and it doesn’t hurt that the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.3% either. At first glance, this looks fine. But zoom out and the trend is clear. Hiring is slowing. The gains are concentrated in a handful of sectors like healthcare, construction, and logistics, while broader momentum remains weak.
For example, the ADP report earlier in the week showed just 62,000 private-sector jobs added, reinforcing the idea that businesses are becoming more cautious.
What we are seeing now is a classic late-cycle labor market. Companies are not aggressively hiring, but they are not rushing to fire workers either. Job openings are trending lower and workers are quitting less often. The labor market is essentially in a standoff where employees stay put and companies resist hiring.
This “low hire, low fire” environment signals a slowdown in demand, but thankfull yit is not a collapse. Investors have to pay attention to the subtle shift because the labor market sits at the center of the economy. It drives consumer spending, corporate earnings, and ultimately the Fed’s monetary policy.
At the same time, this slowdown is happening at the same time as rising geopolitical risk. The bombing of Iran has pushed energy prices higher, which increases the odds of short-term inflation. So now the Fed has a problem on their hands.
Structural deflation is swallowing the economy. Short term inflationary pressures are showing up. The stock market is volatile. And the central bank has to figure out what to do. They can’t cut rates if inflation is going to spike, but they can’t let the labor market fall off a cliff either. This tension between slower growth and sticky inflation is one of the most important dynamics I am watching right now.
So this brings us back to stocks and why they are rallying in the face of this mixed data? The answer is simple….markets are forward-looking.
Investors are betting that the current softness will eventually lead to policy support. If the labor market weakens further, the Fed will be forced to ease. If geopolitical tensions stabilize, energy prices could come down and diminish inflationary pressures. On top of that, there is still a belief that corporate earnings, particularly in technology, can remain resilient.
Basically investors are calling the bluff of the doomsday predictors. They are voting with their dollars and clearly saying they believe things are going to turn around through the rest of the year.
This is what a “climb the wall of worry” market looks like. Stocks move higher even as the data becomes more fragile. You have to remember, we are not in a recession. But we are also not in a clean growth environment. We are in the messy middle, which is where narratives shift quickly and investors who can ignore the noise tend to do well over the long run.
This is where discipline becomes critical. Companies with strong balance sheets, durable demand, and real pricing power tend to outperform in this type of environment. These businesses can absorb higher costs and navigate slower growth better than their peers. At the same time, interest rates will remain a key variable.
If labor market weakness continues, rate cuts come back into focus, which tends to benefit long-duration assets like growth stocks. But if energy-driven inflation persists, the Fed may stay tighter for longer, which changes the situation materially.
I don’t want to ignore the energy situation, but it is important to put in context too. Higher oil prices are not just a macro headline. They directly impact inflation expectations, consumer behavior, and corporate margins. In many ways, energy exposure becomes both a risk and a hedge depending on how geopolitical events unfold. This adds another layer of complexity to portfolio construction.
So the one thing I feel very confident in is that volatility will remain elevated. This is not a smooth, trending market. Sharp pullbacks driven by fear can offer attractive entry points, while strong rallies can be used to take profits and manage risk. The key is to avoid reacting emotionally and instead focus on the underlying fundamentals of stocks, gold, bitcoin, and other assets.
The bottom line is that the labor market is screaming a specific message to whoever will listen. It is not strong, but it is not breaking either. The market, for now, is choosing to be optimistic, which I think is a no brainer decision.
But that optimism depends on hiring stabilizing, inflation staying under control, and geopolitical tensions easing in the coming weeks. If any of those variables shift in the wrong direction, then the current rally could quickly lose momentum.
You have to be a critical thinker going forward. The easy gains from broad exposure are behind us. The edge now comes from understanding second-order effects. Slower hiring today can mean easier policy tomorrow. Higher energy prices can delay that easing. No one has a crystal ball. But if you think hard enough, you can start to connect the dots.
Lots of people are nervous or confused right now. I am excited and see tons of opportunity all over the market. And my bet is that pessimists sound smart, but they rarely make money.
Let’s see what happens. Have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck and portfolio manager of the NODE ETF.
In this conversation, we discuss why he’s turning more bullish on bitcoin, how AI and energy are driving new investment opportunities, and why bitcoin miners are emerging as key players in the AI boom. We also explore risks around AI Capex, geopolitics, and how he’s positioning across crypto and equities.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-04-02 22:30:12
Arch Public is offering HUGE discounts for our Concierge Program and it all ends this week! 40% discounts (and possibly more?) for every single Concierge Program tier. We only do this once a year!! Visit archpublic.com to connect with the team, and tell them Pomp sent you for the best deal!
In the current crypto bear market, the time to position yourself is now. Optimize returns and strengthen your cost basis with institutional-grade algorithmic automation that trades 24/7—so you don’t have to.
Our Crypto Algorithms have generated returns exceeding the majority of hedge funds and Bitcoin firms (no leverage, lending, or shared custody required). Connect seamlessly to Gemini, Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken & more while retaining full control of your assets.
Hands-free execution. Emotionless discipline. Trading 24/7. Outperform buy-and-hold across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP & beyond.
Trusted by 20,000+ users. Start with our free tier today and build your advantage before the next cycle.
To investors,
Most capital allocators were freaking out one year ago. The President of the United States levied tariffs on the world economy in early April 2025, which sent markets into a chaotic and turbulent period. Pessimists promised you sky-high inflation, empty shelves, and the next Great Depression.
None of that happened though.
Instead, the stock market went up 16%, home prices went down, and hundreds of billions of dollars poured into America via foreign investment. But most importantly, we never got the sky-high inflation, which objectively disproves the academic theory that tariffs are inflationary.
If you recall, I was one of the lone voices banging the drum that tariffs would be deflationary. Here is the piece that I wrote last April titled “Welcome to the Tariff Era — The Truth about US Tariffs.” If you haven’t read it, I highly suggest you do.
I argued in the piece that past tariffs had led to lower prices of goods domestically, rather than higher prices. I analyzed the 2018 tariffs and their impact on steel, washer machines, and solar panels. For all three products, prices were lower within 18 months than they had been pre-tariffs. I predicted we would see many of the same things start happening across the US economy.
Fast forward to today and we are now starting to see some of the results one year later. Natasha Khan just wrote a piece for the Wall Street Journal explaining how Sharpie, the maker of your favorite markers, has figured out how to manufacture their products at a lower cost by re-shoring their manufacturing. The best part is they have been able to do this without having to fire employees or raise consumer prices.
Narrative violation.
But we are not just seeing lower prices in tariffed goods. Truflation reported their latest data for the start of April and it serves as a check against the current mainstream consensus. The company writes:
“The US inflation index went down quite significantly today from 1.77% to 1.26%.
Truflation CPI often shows larger monthly shifts on the 1st of each month because multiple data providers update their data. This time, the shift is downwards and unusually strong, highlighting multiple sticky deflationary trends across major categories, while gasoline prices continue to go up and have driven inflation higher over the past month.
Main drivers of this renewed deflationary wave:
Transport (-0.17%) - Used and New car price inflation is decreasing despite being offset by the Gasoline prices going up.
Food (-0.10%) - Food at home and Food away from home inflation is dropping.
Utilities (-0.10%) - Natural Gas prices are declining.
Housing (-0.09%) - Prices are dropping across all 3 sub-categories: Rented, Owned, and Other Lodgings.”
Now I know many people are skeptical of Truflation, but I continue to believe it is the single most valuable and accurate measurement of real-time inflation in the United States. They use over 14 million data points coming from over 40 independent data providers. Is it perfect? Probably not. But it is definitely more accurate than the CPI calculation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Plus, Truflation has a 98% correlation to CPI, with CPI having a one-month lag. The reason this is important right now is because Truflation is telling us that the short-term impact from rising oil and gas prices is not going to be as pronounced on inflation as everyone is predicting.
Let me explain what I mean. Gas prices are now over $4 per gallon in the US. The media will rightfully call out the potential economic pain from this development, but there is some important nuance that you won’t read in the headlines.
You are going to read that every visit to the pump costs more, small businesses get squeezed, shipping prices rise, and that flows into everything from groceries to Amazon orders. This is all true and unfortunately these negative impacts hit lower-income households the hardest.
But $4 gas is not going to derail the US economy.
Most people are stuck in the 2008 mindset, but thankfully that is not the world we live in anymore. Cars are more fuel-efficient, EV adoption is growing, wages are higher in nominal terms, and the economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be.
On top of this, America is producing more oil than ever, so high oil prices incentivizes more investment and it creates more jobs domestically. These may not be exciting consolation prizes, but they are factual ramifications from high prices.
So what is likely to actually happen from these higher prices at the pump?
We probably don’t experience a big crash directly from high gas prices. Instead, we see a slow bleed across markets. Consumers pull back a little, sentiment weakens, and politicians start sweating. But $4 gas alone isn’t enough to break the economy.
The real danger is stacking negative economic trends. If high gas combines with sticky inflation, high rates, or a weakening job market then that’s when things could quickly unravel. If we don’t get the combination of factors, most of the headlines will be overdone.
So for right now, the biggest impact of high gas prices is not economic, but rather psychological. This brings us back to the recent Truflation data and the example of Sharpie. The structural setup for the US economy right now has deflation as a much bigger risk than inflation. The headlines are screaming about high oil prices, and the ensuing high gas prices, but the situation has not changed in the medium-to-long term.
Don’t get distracted. Tariffs, deportations, AI, and robotics are going to last longer than high oil prices. And those trends will matter much more for your portfolio over the next few years.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
Join myself and Chris Kline, Co-Founder of BitcoinIRA, for a FREE live webinar on how the right tax structure can change your financial life.
We’ll cover Bitcoin’s role in a modern portfolio, tax-advantaged account strategies, and what investors should be thinking about right now.
Learn about:
✅ How taxes quietly destroy wealth
✅ The accounts high earners actually use
✅ Live Q&A with Pomp
Don’t miss the opportunity to get your questions answered directly by myself and Chris Kline!
Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck and portfolio manager of the NODE ETF.
In this conversation, we discuss why he’s turning more bullish on bitcoin, how AI and energy are driving new investment opportunities, and why bitcoin miners are emerging as key players in the AI boom. We also explore risks around AI Capex, geopolitics, and how he’s positioning across crypto and equities.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.