2026-02-26 23:39:11
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To investors,
The main story for investors over the last few weeks has been the rapid sell-off in software stocks. To better understand why this has happened, I asked Silvia (the AI-powered CFO we built) to explain. Here is what she said:
The selloff — dubbed the “SaaSpocalypse” — has wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization from software stocks since late January 2026. The primary driver is a sudden and intense fear that AI, particularly the emergence of autonomous AI agents (like Anthropic’s Claude Cowork), is on the verge of cannibalizing the traditional SaaS business model. Investors are worried that if AI tools can replace entire software workflows — from coding to customer service to IT management — then the per-seat, subscription-based pricing model that has underpinned SaaS valuations for a decade is fundamentally threatened. The iShares Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has plunged roughly 20% year-to-date, with major names hit hard: Microsoft is down ~28% from its highs, Oracle ~55%, Salesforce ~30%, and Adobe ~27%, according to USA Today and Reuters.
Adding fuel to the fire is a massive sector rotation. Capital is flooding out of legacy SaaS names and into AI infrastructure plays, value stocks, and industrials. Forward earnings multiples for software have compressed from roughly 39x to 21x — hitting multi-year lows — even though fundamentals have largely held up. According to AInvest, 100% of reporting S&P 500 software firms beat profit targets last quarter, with 80% exceeding revenue estimates. Companies like ServiceNow and AppLovin posted record earnings but still saw their shares punished, as Wall Street has shifted its focus from current profitability to terminal value — essentially asking whether these incumbents can survive a world of autonomous AI agents. J.P. Morgan has called the selloff driven by “broken logic”, arguing the market is pricing in worst-case disruption scenarios that haven’t materialized.
These are fairly big promises that stock market bears are relying on for their investment thesis. It doesn’t make sense that all software companies are suddenly significantly less valuable than a few weeks ago.
Silvia went on to explain the key debate between this being an overreaction from investors or a structural turning point in the market:
“Bears argue that AI agents will commoditize software, compress margins, and erode installed bases — some analysts at Bain and Forrester note that CIOs are consolidating software budgets and redirecting spend toward AI tools, not expanding SaaS footprints.
Bulls counter that deeply embedded “system-of-record” platforms (like Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Intuit) have sticky customer bases and recurring revenue that won’t evaporate overnight, and that current valuations may present a compelling entry point.
The truth likely falls somewhere in between — AI will reshape the sector, but the indiscriminate nature of this selloff is pricing many quality names as if their businesses are already in decline, when the data doesn’t yet support that conclusion.”
One of the questions I continue thinking about is the relationship between software stocks and bitcoin. If software stocks are selling off because of the AI fears, then why would bitcoin sell off at the same time? Are investors worried about bitcoin in relationship to AI?
Silvia explained the relationship well:
The correlation between Bitcoin and software stocks has surged to striking levels in early 2026. As of February, Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) hit 0.73. This is a remarkably high reading. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has similarly swung from -0.68 to +0.72 in just a few weeks. Meanwhile, its correlation with gold sits at a paltry 0.12. In practice, Bitcoin is trading like a high-beta software stock, not a safe haven.
The mechanism driving this linkage is institutional flow dynamics, not fundamental overlap. Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024, Bitcoin has been increasingly held within the same institutional portfolios as growth and tech equities. When a risk-off event hits — like the AI-driven software selloff triggered by Anthropic’s Claude Cowork launch — portfolio managers de-risk across the board, selling both software stocks and Bitcoin simultaneously. Bitcoin ETFs saw $272M in daily outflows at the peak of the selloff, and cumulative crypto product outflows reached $1.7B. This isn’t a crypto-specific story — it’s a broader risk-off regime where capital rotates out of growth assets and into gold, treasuries, and cash. Bitcoin, as a risk-on asset held by the same institutions, gets caught in that undertow.
The key nuance — and what makes this particularly painful — is that Bitcoin exhibits a negative skew in its correlation. Bitcoin follows software stocks down more aggressively than it follows them up. When IGV rallies, Bitcoin’s reaction is muted; when IGV sells off, Bitcoin tends to amplify the move. This asymmetry is the worst of both worlds — Bitcoin captures the downside of tech correlation without fully participating in the upside. Stifel has even projected Bitcoin could fall to $38,000, citing its 0.78 correlation with the Nasdaq 100 as evidence it now behaves like a leveraged tech bet rather than a dollar hedge.
It is clear that the selloffs are highly correlated right now. The most likely scenario where the correlation breaks down is if institutional investors stop treating bitcoin as a growth/risk-on asset.
As long as Bitcoin sits in the same sleeve of institutional portfolios as software stocks and is governed by the same macro triggers (Fed policy, liquidity, risk appetite), it will keep trading like a leveraged tech bet. For this to change, a critical mass of Bitcoin’s marginal buyers would need to shift from momentum-chasing hedge funds and ETF-driven retail to structural, price-insensitive holders…mainly entities that buy and hold regardless of quarterly macro shifts.
The most plausible catalyst is sovereign adoption at scale.
The U.S. has already established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using seized assets, and countries like Brazil, El Salvador, and Bhutan are exploring or actively accumulating Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve. Central bank gold reserves have now surpassed foreign-held U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, which could be a structural “sovereign rotation” that Bitcoin could eventually benefit from if it proves to be a credible neutral reserve asset. If major central banks (particularly China or Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds) began actively acquiring Bitcoin that would create a massive base of price-insensitive demand that absorbs sell pressure during risk-off events, fundamentally dampening its equity correlation.
This is essentially what has been happening with gold, so bitcoin aspires to follow in the precious metals footsteps.
Any decoupling of bitcoin from software stocks will be a multi-year process.
It requires a gradual shift in Bitcoin’s holder base from speculative/institutional to sovereign/structural, a compression in volatility, and at least one crisis where Bitcoin doesn’t sell off with everything else. The sovereign reserve trend is the most promising catalyst on the horizon, but as long as ETF-driven institutional flows dominate Bitcoin’s marginal pricing, it will continue to behave as a high-beta extension of the growth/tech complex during periods of stress.
So one way to think about bitcoin’s current correlation is the asset is a victim of its own success. We wanted mainstream adoption, which what we have accomplished, but that mainstream adoption (especially by Wall Street) brings side-effects. The new correlation with software stocks is the most obvious one.
Bitcoin will be just fine. I anticipate it will continue to do very well in the future. Your challenge as an investor is to avoid getting bored. Best of luck to each of you.
You can sign up to use Silvia for free here: www.cfosilvia.com
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Matt Cole is the CEO of Strive Asset Management, and Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin’s volatility doesn’t change the long-term story, how institutions think about drawdowns, and what today’s Fed policy could mean for bitcoin and other risk assets. We also touch on digital credit, bitcoin-backed yield, and why volatility may actually be one of bitcoin’s biggest advantages for long-term investors.
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Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-26 00:45:24
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To investors,
The President held his annual State of the Union last night. He gave the longest speech in modern history at the event and covered many different topics.
My personal favorite moments were the patriotic acknowledgement of various American heroes. The USA mens hockey team that recently won gold medals were in attendance and received a standing ovation. Scott Ruskan, the Coast Guard rescue swimmer who saved 165 lives during the Camp Mystic floods, was recognized. Air Force Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe who was shot in the head in Washington DC last year got similar treatment.
And Chief Warrant Officer 5 Eric Slover, the heroic helicopter pilot who was seriously wounded during the Maduro raid in Venezuela, was awarded the Medal of Honor (the military’s highest honor) in front of the Commander in Chief and the nation’s leaders.
This spectacle was a complete cultural victory for patriotic Americans who want to see the country continue to thrive and understand that our country is built by courageous men and women who are willing to do the impossible for the flag on their chest.
President Trump also spent a substantial amount of time discussing the US economy. He reiterated his belief that the administration has led a strong economic turnaround, including bringing inflation down substantially. Here were some of the key quotes:
He described inheriting “a nation in crisis with a stagnant economy, inflation at record levels” from Biden, calling it “the worst inflation in the history of our country.”
He stated: “Inflation is plummeting,” and “in 12 months, my administration has driven core inflation down to the lowest level in more than five years. And in the last three months of 2025, it was down to 1.7%.”
On gasoline: “Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states… it is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states and in some places $1.99 a gallon. And when I visited the great State of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.”
He highlighted specific food prices coming down, such as: “The price of eggs is down 60%,” and “even beef, which was very high, is starting to come down significantly.”
Now I know there will be an incredible debate about what numbers are accurate and whether the President was “right” or “wrong” in his claims. I am not interested in the political nonsense. I am merely viewing this State of the Union through the perspective of an investor, so I immediately go to the data source I trust most: Truflation.
According to the real-time metric, inflation was 2.3% a year ago and it now sits around 0.9%, which is a significant drop in just 12 months.
But more interestingly, Truflation is reporting deflation is already here in a few sectors. There is a -1.5% year-over-year growth rate in the median sales price of existing homes.
The Truflation Breakfast Index, which tracks real-time price movements across eleven essential breakfast components, including Milk, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Eggs, Oats, Orange Juice, Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar, Wheat, and Tea, has seen a substantial decrease in prices over the last 12 months.
These are just a few examples where the real-time, alternative metrics are telling a compelling story about the direction for consumer prices. With that said, you will still here many people complain about how expensive everything is right now. Both things can be true at the same time.
Prices can be coming down on a relative basis over the last year, while consumers are still feeling the negative effects of the substantial increase in prices over the last half-decade. This is where so much of the controversy and debate around economic data lies in my opinion. Both sides are partially correct, so they each dig their heels in and vigorously defend their position.
The most important thing for investors right now is avoiding the rearview mirror. It doesn’t matter what happened 5 years ago, nor does it matter what happened over the last 12 months. The only thing that will impact your portfolio is what happens next and the current risk is deflation. If that becomes reality, the government will print more money and advocate for lower and lower interest rates.
Things are about to get even crazier, so buckle up.
The State of the Union may have been a spectacle, but you haven’t seen anything yet compared to what is likely to happen in the market.
Hope you have a great day. I will talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Bo Hines is the CEO of Tether US and a former White House crypto advisor who helped shape U.S. digital-asset policy during a critical moment for the industry. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, we discuss Bo’s work in the White House on crypto policy, including the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the GENIUS Act, and the push for regulatory clarity. We also cover stablecoin adoption, why UX matters more than yield, how Tether is connecting global markets to U.S. capital, and why stablecoins could be the on-ramp to the next phase of bitcoin and financial infrastructure.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-24 23:37:23
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To investors,
Bitcoin launched more than 15 years ago under the promise of creating peer-to-peer electronic cash. Millions of people got excited about the prospect of a decentralized, digital currency serving as a check on central banks and governments around the world. This explosion of adoption and demand led the asset from a penny to over $126,000 in less than two decades.
Not bad for a piece of technology that was mocked, ridiculed, and fought along the way.
But bitcoin has fallen approximately 50% from the all-time high and the skeptics are taking victory laps saying “I told you so!” Are they right? And why has bitcoin fallen so aggressively?
Before I explain the drivers of bitcoin’s fall, we have to contextualize bitcoin’s recent drop with prior bear markets where the asset fell 85% or more on numerous occasions. These past boom-bust cycles were the product of abnormal volatility, which may have been one of the largest drivers of attention and adoption for bitcoin.
If you look at the last few months, bitcoin is down approximately 48% from the cycle top. Bitcoin had fallen about 50% at this stage of the bear market in 2018 and about 30% at this stage of the bear market in 2022. I am not sure investors covet the consolation prize of “bitcoin always does this!,” but at least the data supports the argument.
Next, we have to ask ourselves why bitcoin has been selling off. There is a lot to unpack here, so I will do my best to outline the various components and complexity.
First, many investors have been believers in the 4-year cycle. They were expecting bitcoin to peak in Q4 of 2025, so they started to sell at the end of September and early October in anticipation of that development. Second, some of the largest individual bitcoin holders have been holding the asset for more than a decade. The $100,000 per coin milestone served as a psychological finish line for some portion of these people, which led them to sell many of their bitcoin in the second half of last year.
Third, bitcoin has become more financialized with the adoption of the asset by Wall Street. The various financial products allow investors to gain exposure in different ways, while collectively dampening volatility on the asset. That lack of volatility is attractive to large pools of capital, but it is a big deterrent for individual investors.
These three reasons seem logical enough, but I am starting to think there is an even more important reason that bitcoin sold off so aggressively: bitcoin is sounding the alarm on liquidity and deflation.
We know that inflation is falling in the United States. The government’s inflation metric fell from 2.7% to 2.4% in the last reading and Truflation is showing real-time inflation around 1% right now. Remember, Truflation has a 97% correlation to CPI with a 1-month lag. This means we should expect inflation to continue falling aggressively in the government metrics over the next 2-3 months.
Roger Montgomery points out that “Cross Border Capital’s Michael Howell believes a 5-6-year cycle exists in the underlying momentum of the components of global liquidity. Right now, the outlook is bleak because Global Liquidity has peaked, is entering a downswing, and the next trough isn't expected until 2027.”
If Howell is right, the short-term performance of bitcoin and other asymmetric assets may be less than ideal. Not only do you have decreasing global liquidity, but you also have the deflationary impact of tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence and robotics. That is a total of five negative trends that would create a significant headwind for bitcoin through 2026.
But I don’t come with only bad news. These price drawdowns in the digital currency tend to be gifts to long-term oriented investors.
X user “PricedInBitcoin” writes “Bitcoin is down 47% from the all-time high. Historically, buying at -50% drawdown has a 90% win rate over 1 year with a median return of +95%. At -70%, the win rate is 100%. Never lost. Worst outcome was still +25%. LOCK IN.”
So now the ball is in your court as an investor. We know all assets, including bitcoin, are getting hammered by the perfect storm of contracting liquidity and deflationary forces. When you decide to start allocating your capital into the market is your choice.
History suggests buying assets at a discount tends to be a good idea. The biggest question in my mind is “when?!”
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Caitlin Long is the founder and CEO of Custodia Bank and a pioneer at the intersection of traditional finance and crypto. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, we break down stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and U.S. banking regulation, explaining why stablecoins were pushed outside the banking system and how tokenized dollars could reshape payments and markets. We also discusses custody risk, bank account closures, bitcoin ETFs, and the key barriers still slowing crypto’s integration into traditional finance.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-24 02:01:16
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To investors,
The world is rapidly changing and it is becoming more difficult to navigate financial markets. Many of my smartest friends are scratching their heads as they try to figure out what is happening, how the changes will impact asset prices, and where they should allocate their capital.
During these times, the only thing I know is to look at the data. There are plenty of data points you could use to spin a negative outlook on the US economy right now.
For example, Barchart explains “12.7% of credit card loans are now in serious delinquency (90+ days), the 2nd highest in history. The only other time the percentage was higher was the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.”
That is not good. A deteriorating labor market could accelerate the problem too.
3Fourteen’s Warren Pies writes “AI’s impact on the labor market is no longer theoretical. In the most AI-exposed industries, job losses are accelerating (especially compared to their pre-AI trend growth). AI resistant industries continue to add jobs. As the year progresses, expect this wedge to grow.”
This weakness in the job market could spell further pain financially for Americans. We know that the wealth inequality gap is widening at an alarming pace.
As we can see, the wealth of the top 1% is now more than $42 trillion, while the wealth of the middle class is only $20 trillion. This means the top 1% has more than twice the wealth of the entire middle class.
This wealth inequality is most likely only going to get worse over time if we continue on the path we are currently going down. The wealthy will own financial assets, AI agents, and robots, while the bottom half of the K-shaped economy will be holding cash and struggling to get a job.
You can see this future divide clearly in the difference between data center construction versus general office construction.
As Campbell put it, we are building “more space for machines to work than space for humans.” Whoever controls those machines will benefit greatly.
Thankfully, all the data and news is not negative though.
Eddy Elfenbein writes “the labor force participation rate for prime-working age people is at a 25-year high, and it’s close to an 80-year high (as far back as the data goes).”
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick also dispels the myth that only the Mag 7 drives returns. He says “For years they said only seven stocks were outperforming. It wasn’t true, but it is what we were told. Today? We are seeing the broadest rally in history.”
So my conclusion is that both things are going to be true: you will continue to see lots of fear porn dominating the media, but there is an incredible amount of opportunity that is driven by positive developments across the economy.
Glass half full or glass half empty? That will be for each of you to decide. As for me, I would never, ever bet against the United States of America or our assets. Lets see what happens.
Have a great start to your week. I will talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with over 30 years of market experience and the author of VisserLabs Substack.
In this episode, we break down what’s happening in software stocks, credit markets, and bitcoin — including how bitcoin could benefit in both inflationary and deflationary environments. We also explore real-world AI adoption, capital shifts, and a few surprising insights Jordi didn’t see coming.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-19 22:53:44
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To investors,
We all want a crystal ball to see into the future. If you had one, you could buy stocks low and sell them high. You could avoid the problem areas. And you would be richer than you could have ever imagined.
But none of us have a crystal ball, right?
Well, not so fast. We finally have data that supports what I have long been saying…Truflation is the most important measurement of inflation in America.
I measure importance along two aspects: speed and accuracy.
Truflation is more accurate and it gets you the accurate data much faster than the government. But you don’t have to believe me anymore. Mark Hackett pointed out yesterday that Truflation has a 97% correlation to CPI with a 1 month lag.
In layman’s terms, Truflation is a crystal ball into what CPI is going to say a few months later. The fact that correlation between the two is 97% should be compelling enough for people to start paying attention, but add in the fact that Truflation tells you weeks in advance, and it is a no brainer to merely watch Truflation and completely ignore CPI at this point.
So what is Truflation telling us will happen in the next 2-3 months?
Bloomberg’s new AI feature summarized it well by writing:
“The model forecasts CPI year-over-year will decline to approximately 0.9% - 1.3% by March 2026 and continue falling toward 1.0 - 1.5% in April, representing a significant disinflationary trend. This forecast stands in stark contrast to the consensus Q1 2026 estimate of 2.59%, suggesting a divergence of approximately 0.8 - 1.0 percentage points. If the Truflation-based forecast proves accurate, it would indicate inflation falling well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target within the next two months, potentially opening the door for more aggressive monetary policy easing than currently priced into markets. The February CPI release on March 11, 2026 will serve as a critical validation point for the indicator’s predictive power during this period of rapid disinflation.”
But Truflation is not the only crystal ball that people seem to be acknowledging now. Yesterday the Federal Reserve put out a paper titled Kalshi and the rise of Macro Markets.
PredictionDesk summarized the paper with the following points:
Kalshi has correctly predicted every single Fed interest rate decision the day before the meeting since 2022
Fed funds futures, the tool Wall Street has relied on for decades, performed worse than Kalshi with statistical significance Kalshi outperforms the Bloomberg survey of professional economists on inflation forecasts
The paper calls Kalshi "the most mature and comprehensive prediction market for economic forecasting"
Polymarket gets one line about operating in a "legal gray area"
Kalshi is the only market that shows you the full range of possible outcomes for GDP, inflation, unemployment, and payrolls
The researchers plan to publish Kalshi's distributional data daily on a public website called EconFutures(.)com for policymakers and researchers
The paper positions Kalshi's CFTC designation (same classification as the CME) and market making from Susquehanna as structural advantages over competitors
Retail access through Robinhood and Webull is framed as a feature, giving the Fed a window into how everyday investors view the economy
So now we have two different measurements that are outside the traditional financial system. Kalshi is using a market-based approach to better forecast various economic data points than traditional tools. Truflation is using a centralized approach to collect, synthesize, and calculate data better than the government.
My big takeaway from these two revelations is simple: the private sector no longer trusts the government data, but rather than complain about it…they are now directly competing.
They have built solutions that are faster and more accurate. That makes these solutions more important and more valuable.
That is how capitalism is supposed to work. If you don’t like something, build a better version. Truflation and Kalshi seem to be doing that. And now it is just a matter of time before all the large pools of capital stop listening to the BLS and start paying attention to the private market solutions.
Hope you have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Mike Novogratz is a veteran macro investor and the founder & CEO of Galaxy. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, Mike shares why investing has become far more complex, how the dollar’s role as a global reserve currency may be shifting, and what that means for bitcoin, gold, and global markets. We also cover bitcoin’s recent pullback, regulation and ETFs, and why AI, energy, and tokenization could define the next market cycle.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
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Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-17 00:12:15
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To investors,
I hosted Bitcoin Investor Week in New York City last week. Thousands of investors attended to hear from more than 45 speakers or meet new people at the various side events and happy hours. Conversations ranged from understanding the recent drawdown in bitcoin’s price to underwriting the odds of deflation to unpacking the convergence of artificial intelligence and bitcoin.
Here are the major takeaways that I had from the week:
Bitcoin investors have been here before — many investors have previously held bitcoin through numerous drawdowns of 50% or more, so there was a lack of panic that was noticeable throughout the event. Multiple members of the media explicitly called this out to me as well. This lack of panic gives me the idea that odds are higher that the current bear market will be shallower and shorter than historical comparisons.
Institutions have arrived — past bitcoin conferences were filled with promises of institutions on the way. The conversation this year was centered around the progress that institutions have made in bitcoin, including the highly successful launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, the various public companies that hold bitcoin on their balance sheet, the accelerated adoption of digital credit, the fast growth of stablecoins, the current initiatives in tokenization, and the requirement that each legacy financial organization have a bitcoin or crypto strategy.
Bitcoin and artificial intelligence are on a collision course — it was nearly impossible to have a conversation with a professional investor or an entrepreneur without both technologies coming up. It is obvious that bitcoin and AI are the future of finance. There was plenty of speculation on how AI agents will transact or store value, so naturally bitcoin and stablecoins were the popular answers.
Deflation is a big risk — my personal view is that deflationary pressure from tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence and robotics are swallowing the US economy. I asked many speakers or attendees whether they agreed and the majority of answers were aligned with my view. There are some outstanding concerns about the economic data or the government’s continued money printing, but overall people seemed satisfied that high inflation was not going to be a problem in the short-term.
Financial advisors are holding or adding bitcoin to portfolios — Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan explained that a recent survey showed that 99% of financial advisors who already had client assets in bitcoin were either “holding” or “adding” based on the recent price drawdown. That data suggests the RIA channel is convinced of the long-term return potential of the asset, which creates sticky capital from their clients.
Institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs are not selling — Blackrock’s Robert Mitchnick explained that majority of the institutions holding Bitcoin ETFs have been holding their exposure during the bitcoin drawdown. He sees continued demand from Blackrock clients and believes there is considerable more room for growth in the ETF allocations.
Stablecoins are not going away — multiple speakers explained that stablecoin growth has been impressive, but the more important data point is how ingrained stablecoins are becoming in legacy institutions’ strategies. It feels like stablecoins are the third crypto product to find true product-market fit after bitcoin and crypto exchanges.
No one wants to call “bottom” yet — the price of bitcoin may be down 50%, yet there were not many takers when I asked various folks to claim the market had bottomed. People are cautious because it seems the past scars of previous bear markets has forced them to prepare for an even more significant drop in price.
All eyes are on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — the consensus feeling about the SBR is happiness that it was put together, but disappointment that the government has not purchased more bitcoin. If the market needs a new catalyst to rally higher, purchases for the SBR could be a simple way to ignite the end of the bear market.
Nothing stops this train — there was not a single person I spoke with at the conference who believes the US government can balance the budget, stop printing money, or lower the national debt. The widespread belief is that assets that benefit from debasement (bitcoin/gold/real estate/etc) will do very well over the next decade, especially as the current administration runs the economy hot and drives economic growth.
I really enjoyed putting together Bitcoin Investor Week. We will be posting many of the on-stage interviews on our main YouTube channel. You can watch my conversations with Dan Ives and Jordi Visser already. If you subscribe to the channel, you will get updated on each conversation we release for the next two weeks or so.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. This conversation was recorded at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this episode, we break down why software stocks are losing their moats, how AI is driving deflation, and why capital is rotating toward scarce assets. We explore hyperscalers, data centers, AI agents, and why bitcoin may emerge as the only true growth asset in a world of abundant intelligence.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
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