2026-02-12 03:26:16
Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity.
Use Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC and Earn ~9% APY. The more you participate, the better your odds!
Figure is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. For every dollar you commit, you get another chance to win $25K USDC.
Start now and enter to win while earning money on your crypto with Democratized Prime1.
To investors,
The investment community is very bullish on stocks right now, yet they believe there is economic pain ahead at the same time. According to a recent Gallup poll, approximately 50% of Americans expect the stock market to rise over the next 6 months. Adam Kobeissi points out this is the second-highest reading since 2020.
You can see this excitement in the trading volume data too. Walter Bloomberg explains:
“U.S. equity markets are seeing record turnover, averaging $1.03 trillion a day in January—a 50% jump from a year ago—with 19 billion shares traded daily.
The surge spans retail, institutional, and automated trading, occurring amid calm markets rather than volatility. Factors include high stock prices, sector rotation from tech to energy/materials, ETF growth, and retail platforms like Robinhood.”
In contrast to this enthusiasm in the equity market, 50% of Americans also expect unemployment to increase, the highest percentage since May 2009, even higher than the 49% seen during the 2020 pandemic.
So we have a widespread belief that stocks are going to go up even though companies will be laying off a meaningful percentage of their employees. The only good explanation for this paradox is the rise of artificial intelligence.
Public companies are openly telling their shareholders they will create more revenue and profit, yet they will need fewer employees to pull it off. Private companies are hiring fewer open roles. And the anecdotal reports from the front lines of entry level employees looking for a job paints a tough picture.
The data is only going to get worse as well. Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg, writes “we are expecting about 666,000 downward revisions to March 2025 payrolls level as part of the annual benchmarking. After all that's done, we expect December 2025 to see a downward revision near 1 million.”
So stocks are booming and jobs are disappearing…what should the Fed do?
They will have to cut interest rates. They can’t risk the pain from deflationary forces forcing the United States into a deflationary spiral. We have tariffs, AI, and robotics swallowing the US economy at an accelerated pace. Experts in the AI field are literally writing pieces comparing the pervasiveness of AI to the unexpected spread of COVID in 2020.
Let me be very clear. Everyone is underestimating what is happening right now.
This is not some simple change. We are watching two major changes happen to the US economy at the same time. The private sector is automating significant amounts of the economy at a pace we have never seen before, while the public sector is re-engineering the global monetary order with tariffs, deregulation, tax cuts, and a weaker dollar.
You have the President of the United States literally calling for 200 basis point cuts to interest rates so the government can erase the annual deficit.
If Trump, Bessent, and Kevin Warsh are all advocating for large interest rate cuts, what do you think is going to happen? Do you think they are going to cut rates? Yes, I think so. They are going to implement their view of the world.
But this brings me back to the unlikely situation of stocks going higher, while the job market evaporates. Usually GDP surges and stocks lag. Then central banks raise interest rates to cool everything off. But we have GDP booming, stocks pushing higher, and interest rates being cut.
This can only mean one thing…make sure you are holding assets instead of cash. They are going to weaken the US dollar like we have never seen before. And the short-term deflationary pressures are going to hide that devaluation very well. So the bitcoin and gold crowd will be happy in the long run, yet they may have headwinds in the short term.
That is the true test of conviction. Can you ignore the noise and keep holding? I think those are the people who will be happiest a decade from now.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this episode, we break down why bitcoin is selling off, why software multiples are compressing, and how capital is shifting toward scarce, physical assets. We cover data centers, AI, energy, and semiconductors — plus insights on Elon Musk, Tesla, SpaceX, and what it all means for markets.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
Democratized Prime uses a Dutch auction; rates may fluctuate. Loans remain subject to collateral, margin, and variable-rate requirements. Anyone who qualifies for a reward under this promotion will only receive such reward if they are a Figure Markets user, have a Figure Markets wallet address, are verified through our Know Your Customer requirements before the end date of the promotion, and are in good standing with Figure Markets at all times between meeting the eligibility criteria and the time the reward is deposited. Figure Markets reserves the right to request additional documentation to verify identity and/or bank account verification before conveying any rewards.
2026-02-09 21:02:43
To investors,
We are announcing today that ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR) has entered into an agreement to acquire CFO Silvia, Inc to become the first publicly traded agentic finance firm.
Our mission is very simple: “help independent investors make money.”
The combined company will have more than $30 billion in assets on the platform and would be the 5th largest fee-only RIA in the country if Silvia was a traditional RIA. The big innovation is that Silvia has been serving thousands of multi-millionaires with only 5 employees. This is only possible because of our proprietary AI agents and the coming supersonic tsunami of artificial intelligence.
ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR) is combining artificial intelligence and Bitcoin in a very unique way.
Here are what I believe to be the compelling benefits of BRR moving forward:
First publicly traded agentic finance firm: A modern finance firm that prioritizes automation and AI agents instead of human headcount.
Retail access to a fast-growing start-up: Silvia is an incredibly fast-growing AI platform that places ProCap Financial at the intersection of the two most powerful forces in finance: AI and Bitcoin.
5,000+ Bitcoin on Company balance sheet: Bitcoin continues to serve as part of long-term capital allocation strategy
Shareholder-friendly deal structure: Consideration for this transaction only benefits Silvia shareholders if ProCap Financial’s stock price increases by more than 400%, aligning incentives with the interests of public shareholders.
Before I share more about the deal or our plans, I want to explain why we are combining these companies…
My goal is to give people freedom. I deeply believe capitalism and democracy are the best tools to achieve this outcome.
In order to have true freedom, people need a lot of money. Money gives them free time that can be allocated to whatever makes them happy. It makes no sense that people will spend 50+ years of their life sitting in a cubicle or working a cash register as they wait to die.
The reality is that most people have no other choice. They need to feed their families, pay their bills, and fulfill their responsibilities. Free time is a luxury that is unreachable to the majority of the world’s population.
The first step I took in this journey was my discovery of Bitcoin. Once I realized the asset would be a vehicle to give someone their time back, I went around the world and told millions of people about it. That effort helped create thousands of multi-millionaires who now have the financial security to spend their time how they see fit.
Capitalism and free markets created abundance for those who listened.
Abundance led to freedom.
I am now focused on expanding my mission to the masses. I have no other option because artificial intelligence poses an existential risk to the livelihood of millions of people. This innovation has created synthetic, superhuman intelligence that will be able to do most things better than a human.
What will humans do in a world of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)? How will they make a living if their jobs are replaced by machines and software?
We must harness the power of AI to create financial abundance for every human on earth before the very same technology destroys their ability to make a living.
This is one of the most important arms races in human history.
Superhuman intelligence will propel the world into an age of abundance. This universal access to AI will create an economic explosion, driving GDP growth to levels we have never seen before. But only those who leverage the new technology will benefit. Everyone else will experience significant job displacement and economic pain.
There are only two outcomes for an individual…economic abundance or economic destruction.
I want to help people achieve freedom by capturing the economic abundance.
This is why today we announced that ProCap Financial has entered into an agreement to acquire CFO Silvia, Inc. Once shareholders approve the deal, this will be the first publicly traded agentic finance firm. We aren’t looking to hire tons of employees, but rather create thousands of AI agents over time to help independent investors make money.
You can sign up for free to use Silvia by clicking here.
Our company is traded on the Nasdaq under ticker BRR.
Here is the full press release:
Company announces agreement to acquire CFO Silvia, Inc. in shareholder-friendly deal structure to scale one of the leading AI agent labs in finance
Combined company will have $30 billion in assets on the platform with thousands of multi-millionaire users
ProCap Financial deleverages by repurchasing $135 million of its outstanding convertible note
NEW YORK, NY – DATE, 2026 – Artificial intelligence is a supersonic tsunami hurling towards the U.S. economy. Upon impact, millions of jobs will be destroyed. Financial security will disappear. And economic despair will be pervasive.
We don’t have to accept this fate.
ProCap Financial, Inc. (Nasdaq: BRR) (“ProCap Financial” or the “Company”) today announced its plan to become the first publicly traded agentic finance firm and unveiled its mission to “help independent investors make money.” ProCap Financial believes it is imperative to harness the power of artificial intelligence to create financial abundance for every human on earth before artificial intelligence creates financial pain for those same people.
ProCap Financial’s solution to the existential threat of AI is to build the most accurate and valuable AI models and agents for finance. With an army of efficient AI agents, rather than thousands of human employees, the Company will be able to offer unique products and services to help independent investors create personal wealth.
To execute on this plan, ProCap Financial has entered into an agreement to acquire CFO Silvia, Inc. (“Silvia”), a leading AI agent lab exclusively focused on finance. Silvia’s consumer product is free for all users and currently has proprietary AI agents answering queries from digital-native, wealthy users.
Since its public launch in May 2025, Silvia has achieved the following milestones:
More than $30 billion in assets on the platform
Average user has a net worth exceeding $2.5 million
Average user has connected 12+ accounts
94% of users interact with Silvia’s AI features
“The most powerful agentic AI companies are being built behind closed doors in private markets, accessible to only a small group of insiders, leaving public investors on the sidelines,” said Anthony Pompliano, Chairman and CEO of ProCap Financial. “We are excited to change that by bringing an agentic AI platform into the public markets through this transaction, while at the same time giving independent investors direct access to technology designed to help them make money. Our goal is simple: deliver superhuman intelligence to everyday investors so they can make money.”
Compelling benefits of BRR moving forward:
First publicly traded agentic finance firm: A modern finance firm that prioritizes automation and AI agents instead of human headcount.
Retail access to a fast-growing start-up: Silvia is an incredibly fast-growing AI platform that places ProCap Financial at the intersection of the two most powerful forces in finance: AI and Bitcoin.
5,000+ Bitcoin on Company balance sheet: Bitcoin continues to serve as part of long-term capital allocation strategy
Shareholder-friendly deal structure: Consideration for this transaction only benefits Silvia shareholders if ProCap Financial’s stock price increases by more than 400%, aligning incentives with the interests of public shareholders.
Mr. Pompliano continued, “Everyone is underestimating how destructive AI will be. At ProCap Financial, we are laser-focused on winning the arms race against the machines. We must act now to help many more people build wealth before this technology inflicts economic pain and destruction. This is one of the most critical challenges of our time.”
Transaction Details
On [February 8, 2026], the Company entered into a definitive merger agreement (“Agreement”) with Silvia pursuant to which the Company agreed to acquire Silvia, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, including approval by the Company’s shareholders (the “Proposed Transaction”).
Under the terms of the Agreement, the Company will acquire Silvia in an all stock transaction, which is subject to the Company achieving significant equity milestones, namely, 50% of the equity consideration is subject to a lockup until the Company’s stock price reaches $9.00. The remaining 50% of the equity consideration is forfeited if the Company’s stock price does not cross $9.00 per share in the first five years.
The acquisition is subject to a shareholder vote, which is currently expected to occur by the end of the first quarter of 2026. If approved, the transaction is expected to close shortly thereafter.
Following the close of the transaction, Shain Noor, Silvia’s Co-Founder, will assume the role of Chief Technology Officer for ProCap Financial, responsible for growing the Silvia product and overseeing all technology products across the Company.
Updated Company Balance Sheet
As of today, the Company has 5,006 Bitcoin, $71.8 million in cash, and $99.59 million outstanding from its convertible note offering, which was reduced from $235 million upon settlement of the repurchase.
ProCap Financial will be releasing fiscal year December 31, 2025 earnings on February 18, 2026 after market close. A pre-recorded video will be released at https://investors.procapfinancial.com/ in lieu of a conference call.
About ProCap Financial
ProCap Financial is the first publicly traded agentic finance firm. The Company’s mission is to help independent investors make money. Founded in 2025, the Company raised more than $750 million from leading investors and is traded on Nasdaq under the symbol BRR. Visit www.procapfinancial.com for more information.
About Silvia
CFO Silvia, Inc. (“Silvia”) is an AI agent lab exclusively focused on finance. Using Silvia’s consumer product, investors can connect their stocks, bonds, crypto, real estate, cars, collectibles, precious metals, and private investments to the platform. Silvia then uses proprietary AI agents to analyze and track portfolios, provide personalized financial insights, conduct scenario planning, analyze documents, and more in real time.
Disclaimers and full press release here: Click here
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-06 22:47:35
Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity.
Use Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC and Earn ~9% APY. The more you participate, the better your odds!
Figure is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. For every dollar you commit, you get another chance to win $25K USDC.
Start now and enter to win while earning money on your crypto with Democratized Prime1.
To investors,
Bitcoin is crashing and investors are freaking out. The asset is down 5% in the last 24 hours, down 20% in the last week, and down 30% in the last month. As if that wasn’t bad enough, bitcoin hit $60,000 last night which means the digital asset had fallen more than 50% from the latest all-time high price of $126,000.
Raoul Pal pointed out the fear and greed index was sitting at 5 out of 100 yesterday. I don’t think I have ever seen the metric come in that low.
Bitcoin Archive shows the 4-week RSI has only been lower once in the history of bitcoin.
So why is bitcoin falling?
That seems to be the trillion dollar question. The easy answer, of course, is there are more sellers than buyers, but that doesn’t satisfy the millions of bitcoin holders who were looking for hyperbitcoinization or the 6-figure price predictions from their favorite social media influencer.
The truth is that bitcoin is selling off for a variety of reasons. First, there was a psychological milestone at $100,000 that seems to have unlocked sellers of bitcoin that had held the asset for a long time. The adoption of bitcoin by Wall Street giants like Blackrock and Fidelity may have signaled bitcoin’s conquest was achieved in the mind of early cypherpunks and bitcoin believers.
The second reason is that bitcoin has become highly financialized compared to its previous state as a spot asset that investors could simply buy and hold. I will share more on this in a minute.
The third reason is the four-year cycle has been a concept in bitcoiner’s minds for more than a decade. Whether it is real or not, many holders were prepared to sell their bitcoin about 18 months after the halving with the hopes of buying more bitcoin back later at lower prices. Anticipation creates action and actions create reality.
And lastly, bitcoin is a forward-looking market. When investors believed inflation was on the horizon in 2020, they rushed to buy bitcoin in advance, which led to a 600% increase in the asset price. Now that deflation is a bigger risk than inflation, I believe a portion of investors realized that bitcoin (an inflation-hedge asset) should sell-off when that deflation becomes obvious to everyone.
So there is not one single reason you can point to as the culprit of the recent drop in price for bitcoin. But I want to dig a little deeper on the idea of bitcoin as a financialized asset.
The first aspect of this story is the increased ways to gain exposure to bitcoin. Many bitcoiners incorrectly believe that scarcity has been negated in bitcoin because of these new instruments. For example, here is a post from a popular account that has racked up 2 million views since yesterday:
“The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity is gone. And when scarcity is gone, price stops being discovered on-chain and starts being set in derivatives. That is exactly what happened to Bitcoin. And it’s the same structural break that already happened to gold, silver, oil, and equities.
Once derivatives took over the original Bitcoin thesis is broken. Bitcoin’s valuation was built on two ideas: a hard cap of 21 million and no rehypothecation. That framework died the moment Wall Street layered this on top of the chain:
→ Cash-settled futures
→ Perpetual swaps
→ Options
→ ETFs
→ Prime broker lending
→ Wrapped BTC
→ Total return swaps
From that point forward Bitcoin supply became theoretically INFINITE. Not on-chain. But in price discovery, which is what actually matters. Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR). The metric that explains everything. Once synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, price no longer responds to demand.
It responds to positioning, hedging, and liquidation flows. Wall Street can now trade against Bitcoin. They’re not guessing direction. They’re doing what they do in every derivatives-dominated market: Create unlimited paper BTC. Short into rallies. Force liquidations. Cover lower. Repeat.
This isn’t “betting.” It’s inventory manufacturing. One real BTC can now simultaneously back an ETF share, a futures contract, a perpetual swap, an options delta, a broker loan, and a structured note. All at THE SAME TIME. That’s six claims on one coin. That is not a free market. That is a fractional-reserve price system wearing a Bitcoin mask. Ignore it if you want, but don’t pretend you weren’t warned.”
That sounds really bad and scary, right? Well, like all good conspiracy theories, it only has a hint of truth to it. There has been no change to the scarcity of bitcoin. There will only ever be 21 million coins. The monetary policy is not changing, neither is the total supply.
However, it is true that the increased financial instruments give sophisticated investors more tools to express their view in the market or to manipulate the price in a given direction. So don’t believe the doomsday prediction of synthetic bitcoin supply, but understand that market dynamics have fundamentally changed. There are new players with new tools and a very different approach than the hardcore believers of the past.
The second theory related to financialization is that the increased participation in bitcoin ETFs could be behind the recent sell-off. TheOtherParker explains it well when writing:
“This was the highest volume day on $IBIT, ever, by a factor of nearly 2x, trading $10.7B today. Additionally, roughly $900M in options premiums were traded today, also the highest ever for IBIT. Given these facts and the way $BTC and $SOL traded down in lockstep today (normally SOL trades with beta) + the relatively lower liquidations on CeFi exchanges, this leads me to believe that the nexus of the problem lies with a large IBIT holder. IBIT has become the #1 venue for BTC options trading, so my guess is that a hedge fund trading IBIT options is the culprit.
If you look at the 13F filings for IBIT, you’ll find a number of interesting names that have the majority of their fund in IBIT. In fact, there are a few in there (not naming names) that have 100% of their fund in IBIT, which likely means no cross margin. In fact, the biggest reason to set up a fund to hold a single asset would be to isolate margin, so that if the trade blew up, the brokers wouldn’t have claim to any other assets.
Interestingly, most of these giant, single asset funds are based in HK. We know that Asian traders, particularly in China, have been deeply involved in the Silver and Gold trade. Silver was down 20% today, which was the 2nd largest 1 day move in a very long time (largest on Jan 30). We also know that the JPY carry trade has been unwinding at an increasingly rapid pace.
This leads me to think that the culprit for the IBIT blowup today was 1 or more HK-based non-crypto hedge funds. As @FranklinBi pointed out, the fund(s) being non-crypto would explain why no one sniffed them out. They would likely have few/no crypto counterparties, meaning complete isolation from CT.
The last small piece of evidence I have is that I personally know a number of HK-based hedge funds that are holders of $DFDV, which had the worst single down day ever, with a meaningful mNAV decline. The mNAV had been holding steady surprisingly well throughout this pull back until today. One of these fund(s) could have been connected to the IBIT culprit, as I highly doubt a fund taking that large of a position in IBIT and using a single entity structure would only have the one fund.
Now, I could easily see how the fund(s) could have been running a levered options trade on IBIT (think way OTM calls = ultra high gamma) with borrowed capital in JPY. Oct 10th could very well have blown a hole in their balance sheet, that they tried to win back by adding leverage waiting for the “obvious” rebound. As that led to increased losses, coupled with increased funding costs in JPY, I could see how the fund(s) would have gotten more desperate and hopped on the Silver trade. When that blew up, things got dire and this last push in BTC finished them off.”
This theory of IBIT holders being caught offsides doesn’t seem crazy to me. Is it the reason for bitcoin’s 50% decline in the last 4-5 months, definitely not. Could it have exasperated the situation, especially yesterday when there was such a severe sell-off? Absolutely.
Forced sellers tend to make assets do volatile things. And to say yesterday was volatile would be an understatement.
The good news is that bitcoin’s recent sell-off is not nearly as bad as past bear markets. Pierre Rochard points out this is the least worst bitcoin “bear market.”
Bitcoiners were built for this type of chaos in markets. They have held the asset through many 50%+ drawdowns. In fact, bitcoiners have experienced a 50% drawdown in the asset approximately every 18 months for the last decade.
That is a Global Financial Crisis every year and a half. Not bad for a bunch of people on the internet with a crazy dream to reimagine the monetary system.
Have a great weekend. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. In this conversation, we discuss bitcoin’s recent drawdown and whether the market is in a true bear phase, the current interest rate backdrop, and the Fed’s role in today’s economy.
We also cover the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, Jeff’s outlook on precious metals, and a warning on one asset he believes investors should avoid going forward.
Enjoy!
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities..
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-04 23:57:10
Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity.
Use Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC and Earn ~9% APY. The more you participate, the better your odds!
Figure is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. For every dollar you commi…
2026-02-02 22:42:59
Unlock unparalleled returns with Arch Public’s algorithmic trading tools. Our Bitcoin Algorithm Arbitrage Strategy has delivered an astounding 247% annual return over the past three years.
The entries, and exits speak for themselves; precision that drives success. Trusted by more than 15,000 customers and industry leaders, we’ve partnered with Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and Robinhood to bring you cutting-edge solutions.
Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting, our proven strategies maximize your potential. Join the ranks of those who trust Arch Public to navigate the markets with confidence.
Talk to us today and discover why our expertise sets us apart.
To investors,
There is a national crisis unfolding in the US economy, but it isn’t the type of crisis you got used to over the last few years. Rather than the persistent risk of high inflation driven by out of control government spending, the economy is being swallowed by an expansive deflationary force.
This new risk is dangerous because it requires humans to update their mental models to be able to identify, understand, and mitigate it. And we know humans are horrible about changing their mind, especially when it requires them to synthesize new information.
First, let’s discuss where the challenges lie in identifying this deflation risk. There is a past experience issue and a modern data error that is driving the problem. The past experience issue is that an entire generation finally capitulated in recent years after realizing that undisciplined government spending led to higher levels of inflation. These folks failed to see the cause and effect coming out of the global financial crisis and they only took the lesson to heart after the pandemic era insanity that drove inflation over 9% in the government’s data.
The folks in this cohort are now trained to look at government spending and conclude that inflation will rise if the national debt is increasing. That was true in the past, but it is not true right now, which is why I call it a “past experience issue.” People are looking at the inputs, but not thinking critically about what that means for modern outputs.
The second big issue is a modern data error. Most of the “experts” and mainstream reporters are still relying on the Bureau of Labor Statistics to tell them what the inflation reading is. It doesn’t matter that the BLS is estimating more than 40% of the CPI inputs, nor does it matter that the BLS continues to manipulate the data collection by leveraging unproven and discredited methods.
These people simply believe whatever the government says.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting inflation to be 2.7% year-over-year. But compare that number to Truflation, which is reporting inflation under 0.9% as of yesterday.
This is a very wide gap in the metrics. In fact, the most concerning part is that the BLS is saying inflation is almost 50% higher than the Fed’s stated target, yet Truflation is saying inflation is more than 50% lower than the Fed’s stated target.
The sky can’t be blue and green at the same time, nor can inflation be high and low simultaneously either.
It is no secret that I trust the Truflation data much more than the BLS. Truflation uses more than 14 million daily data points provided by over 40 independent data providers. I’ll take the real-time, verifiable metric over the lagging, estimated metric any day of the week.
But this brings us back to the most important question in the economy today…why is inflation falling if the government is continuing to print money like drunken sailors?
This is where the deflationary force swallowing the US economy comes in.
There are three main contributors in my mind:
Tariffs are deflationary, not inflationary. I know this is still heavily debated, but I continue to explain that tariffs bring down domestic prices over time and they change consumer demand trends. There are anecdotal businesses that will show their input costs are rising, which is then being passed on to the consumer, but those anecdotes are heavily outweighed by the aggregate impact of tariffs on the US economy.
Artificial intelligence is the largest deflationary force of our lifetime. Companies are literally bragging on a daily basis how they are being more productive with less employees. The industry is moving so fast that it is hard for most people to keep up and the economic incentive to adopt this technology is only going to get larger. Lastly, A.I. is now in the “exponential production” phase where A.I. is writing code, so we are no longer limited by human time and energy.
Robotics is a subset of the A.I. story, but it deserves its own call out. It is very obvious that self-driving cars are going to be cheaper and safer, so they will become the standard. Companies like Amazon are the perfect example…the e-commerce giant employs 1 million robots and 1.5 million humans. They are reportedly looking to replace 500,000 jobs with robots in the coming years, which means they will soon have more robots working at the company than humans. This is highly deflationary.
This is the three-headed monster: tariffs, artificial intelligence, and robotics.
It doesn’t matter how much money the government prints, the elected officials literally can’t spend enough money to negate the deflationary forces that are swallowing the US economy. And yes, that would have been an insane statement just 3 years ago, but today it is the reality.
New information means you have to change your mind.
Finally, this brings us to the important question of what should we do from here?
Now that inflation is under 1%, it is obvious that the Fed should do an emergency 50 basis point cut. They don’t have the luxury of waiting longer. Artificial intelligence is accelerating, which means the deflationary force is only going to get stronger and more pervasive.
You can think of this as a virus. Once it was unleashed, it cannot be contained and it will not slow down. The only thing we can do is address the threat using other measures within our control.
Companies and people are economically incentivized to use A.I. more. The A.I. tools are starting to exponentially produce more A.I. products and services (ex: Claude Code writing 100% of the code for Claude Cowork, etc). Google “exponential curve” if you want to see how fast this will compound.
There needs to be an immediate, aggressive rate cut by the Fed or they risk a deflationary situation.
Consumer prices of various goods will come down, which is a positive outcome for the average American in the short-term, but wages can fall, unemployment can rise, debt can become more burdensome, and there is a potential for a deflationary spiral.
We need a 50 basis point emergency rate cut. Again, I know this will sound crazy to some of you, but I implore you to ask yourself “do I still believe that inflation has to happen if the government is spending money? Do I understand the effects of artificial intelligence, tariffs, and robotics on prices of goods and services? Am I willing to bet a material part of my net worth on assets that can only succeed if inflation is higher than normal?”
If the answer to any of those questions is “maybe” or “no,” then you have work to do. Spend the time this week learning about these things. Start by asking your favorite LLM to explain these topics and issues to you like a 5-year old. Even better, connect your accounts to Silvia and have her tell you what would happen in a deflationary environment or if the US government runs the economy hot.
Almost no one could have predicted the economy running hot without inflation, but here we are. High-growth, low-inflation. The dream of every politician and central banker in the world.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of market experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this episode, we unpack the Federal Reserve rate pause, the case for a more forward-looking Fed, and how rapidly advancing AI is reshaping inflation vs. deflation expectations. We also explore the scarcity trade across bitcoin, silver, energy, and semiconductors—and how investors can think about positioning as physical constraints collide with abundant software.
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-01-30 22:46:18
Figure’s building the future of capital markets through blockchain with $20B unlocked in equity.
Use Democratized Prime for your chance to win big with $25k USDC and Earn ~9% APY. The more you participate, the better your odds!
Figure is the only account you need in the DeFi ecosystem. For every dollar you commit, you get another chance to win $25K USDC.
Start now and enter to win while earning money on your crypto with Democratized Prime.
To investors,
President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh will still have to go through the Senate confirmation process, but I want to spend our time today understanding who Warsh is, what his economic policy ideas are, and how the economy will be impacted if he implements his ideas.
There are a few key things about Kevin Warsh’s background that I think are noteworthy:
He has degrees from Stanford, Harvard, and MIT’s Sloan School of Management
He started his career at Morgan Stanley and then served in the White House Economic Council under George W. Bush
He became the youngest-ever Fed Governor (age 35) in 2006
He was a Fed Governor throughout the Global Financial Crisis
He has served as a Partner at Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office for over a decade since leaving the Fed Governor role
This last point about Druckenmiller is important. Treasury Scott Bessent is also a Druckenmiller partner/mentee, so Warsh’s nomination marks the second person from Druck’s professional lineage to take an important role in this administration’s economic and monetary policy management.
Historically, Warsh has been hawkish. He believes controlling inflation through higher interest rates was the correct path to pursue. For example, Warsh dissented against the ridiculous QE stimulus during the GFC. He made strong arguments that the QE tools would distort markets, risk inflation, and erroneously expand the Fed’s remit outside its core mandate.
You will see lots of headlines about Warsh being a hawk, along with predictions that interest rates are going to be raised and asset prices will not do well under his tenure.
But the thing most people are missing is that Warsh has essentially changed his mind in recent years. Most recently, the new Fed Chair nominee has been supporting lower interest rates instead of higher ones. His general view seems to be that artificial intelligence is driving significant productivity gains, which he sees as deflationary. This has led Warsh to criticize the Fed numerous times on having interest rates too high right now.
You don’t have to be Albert Einstein to realize why Trump would like a guy who wants the Fed to lower interest rates.
The most interesting part of Warsh’s recent policy view is the idea of “regime change” at the Fed. Admittedly, there is not a ton of information out there on his entire strategy, but the belief is that Warsh wants to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet so there can be larger interest rate cuts. He also wants the Fed to stay focused on price stability and employment, rather than become distracted with the recent fascination of climate change and DEI.
Lastly, and maybe most different, Kevin Warsh believes the Fed leadership should not talk publicly as much as they do. Kevin Gee shared this great transcript of Warsh on CNBC’s Squawk Box explaining why he thinks this is important:
If you believe everything you read and see online, it looks like Warsh is going to pursue lower rates, a strict Fed mandate, and do his best to drive economic growth in the real economy. Each of those ideas sound good to me.
Now I have seen a lot of bitcoin holders on X asking what Warsh’s views on bitcoin would be, so thankfully we have a video from deep in the archive of Warsh saying positive things about the digital asset.
You can watch it by clicking here.
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel pulled out the most important part of the transcript:
“You made reference to Bitcoin and I thought I heard a little condescension in your voice, that people are buying Bitcoin.
It could provide market discipline, it could tell the world that things need to be fixed. Bitcoin does not make me nervous.
The underlying technology in that white paper, it’s just software. It’s just the newest, coolest coolest software that will provide us the opportunity to do things we could never have done before.
Can the blockchain software be used for both good an evil? Yes, both like all software. But by building it here in the US, that gives us the opportunity to be more productive and create something very special over the next decade…
I think of bitcoin as a lot of things, but certainly with every passing day getting new life as an alternative currency.”
You could summarize Warsh’s bitcoin views as a belief that it could become a store-of-value like gold, but he does not believe it will be a substitute for the US dollar.
If Kevin Warsh implements lower short-term rates, we should expect to see growth take off. This would lead to higher prices across stocks, crypto, and risk assets. If we get the balance sheet reduction that he seems interested in, you could see tightened liquidity and potential pressure on gold and the dollar.
When it comes to artificial intelligence, the productivity boom, and deregulation, it wouldn’t be crazy to expect inflation to stay under control and the promised “economic boom” to accelerate.
My big takeaway is that the Trump administration is trying to engineer a high-growth, low-inflation economy. They are using every economic or monetary policy tool at their disposal. But Jerome Powell and the current Fed regime are not helping the administration, rather they are actively working against their goals. So now Trump has nominated someone who understands global finance, has experience working inside the Federal Reserve, and appears to be ready to implement monetary policy decisions that will be conducive to the administration’s plan.
It will be very interesting to see what happens. But the speculation is over. Kevin Warsh is the nominee. Now we all hold our breath and see what he actually does once he is in office.
Hope you all have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
-Anthony J. Pompliano
Peter Schiff is the Chief Economist of Euro Pacific Asset Management and the Chairman of Schiff Gold. In this conversation, we discuss the state of the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, the weakening dollar, and the outlook for gold, silver, and bitcoin. We also dive into global trade, monetary policy, and engage in a heated debate over whether tariffs and a weaker dollar help or hurt the economy.
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this formand someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.