2026-07-15 22:19:42
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To investors,
Inflation appears to have peaked and is now starting to come down according to the CPI report yesterday. The government reported 3.5% CPI and core CPI came in at 2.6%. These are ice cold numbers compared to economists expectations.
The headline CPI number fell -0.4% in the last month, which is the largest inflation decline month-over-month in more than 6 years. Naturally, this report is being celebrated by economists, politicians, and investors. The lower numbers significantly decrease the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates later this year.
A big contributing factor to the free fall in official inflation numbers is a -9% drop in gasoline and fuel prices. You can draw a straight line between consumer inflation and the hopeful ending of the Iran war.
But there is one big problem with this report that no one is talking about.
The data is tricking everyone. If you are an investor or a business executive, this report makes things seem like things are getting better. And technically that is true in terms of rate of change, but the average American doesn’t care about the rate of change. They simply care about the aggregate cost of living.
Take New York City as an example. This weekend it was reported that median rents in the city have risen 8% in the last year and hit a new all-time high of $5,295 per month. I don’t care what the CPI number says, majority of people can’t afford to pay $5,000 per month to live in an apartment.
A similar story is playing out at your local grocery store. Eggs, milk, peanut butter, and a plethora of other items have skyrocketed in the last 5 or 6 years. Every time I go to the grocery store, it feels like I am guaranteed to spend $75 - $100. Again, the data can say whatever it wants, yet this rise in cost is putting ridiculous pressure on the average American.
The reason I feel so strongly about this situation is because I have started spending more time talking to people outside of the business and finance community. I wanted to understand what their actual experience has been. Not what the data says, but what are the people feeling in their life. Additionally, I wanted to understand why socialism is on the rise and there seems to be a widespread belief that financial success is a result worth condemning.
In an effort to get answers, I recently went to Yankee Stadium and asked people for thoughts on why everything is so expensive. You can watch the video below. [warning: there is some foul language from folks, but I promise no fun was had by anyone :) ]
My big takeaway from these conversations was everyone knows life got more expensive, yet none of them can articulate why it happened. There was no talk of CPI, the national debt, or interest rates. That isn’t in the vernacular of the average citizen.
They speak in terms of gas, groceries, and rent. Each of those items has exploded in cost over the last half-decade, which is changing the way people act and think.
So just remember, while it was great to see the lower CPI numbers from the government report yesterday, there is no relief on the way for majority of US citizens. Prices are not coming back down any time soon. A lower inflation number merely means prices are going up slower than they were, but they are still continuing to increase.
We need widespread deflation in consumer prices to actually have an impact on affordability in the country. That means we have to build more housing, reduce regulation for small business, and hope AI can flourish in a way that creates the promised productivity boom.
The situation is not ideal. You have a government incentivized to keep printing money and destroying the purchasing power of the dollar. And the average American is the one paying the penalty for this lack of discipline from our leaders.
You don’t have to believe me. You can just hear the people explain it for yourselves if you are open-minded enough to listen to them.
Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Welcome to Episode 003 of The Mission — a day in my life running a business in New York City.
Today I’m walking you through my plan to bring my company out of debt, why we need to do it, what we’re doing to accomplish our mission, and how YOU can help us.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
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TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-07-13 23:35:28
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To investors,
If you want your child to learn, the best thing you can do is give them personalized 1-on-1 tutoring. If you want to be healthy, the best thing you can do is get personalized 1-on-1 private healthcare.
So what should you do if you want to grow your wealth?
Get personalized 1-on-1 insights about your specific financial situation. That is the big idea behind Silvia, the AI CFO product that we launched last year. This morning we announced that Silvia has officially crossed $50 billion in assets on the platform in only 14 months.
To put that number in context, if we were a fee-only RIA (which we are not), we would be one of the top 5 largest RIAs in the country. We accomplished this feat with only a handful of employees and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology.
But there is only one big problem. Silvia is part of ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR), a publicly traded company that has seen its stock fall ~90% from its all-time high price last year.
I hate losing. It eats at me like a disease spreading through my body. There is no way that I am going to sit around and watch the company suffer. That is why I released this video earlier today:
It feels like the whole world is betting against me and the company, but that is why I am energized to pull off the impossible comeback.
We have a strong foundation to build off. Here are some interesting data points about Silvia:
More than $50 billion in total assets connected to the platform
Average user net worth is more than $2.5 million
Paying members chat with Silvia more than 20 times per week on average
Within two months of launching monetization, more than 10% of Silvia’s monthly active users are paying members
Power users have seen typical net worth gains of 16-41% in less than a year on the platform
A good foundation is a starting point. We still have to go build a large, profitable company though. There is going to be a ton of work ahead of us. It won’t be easy. We aren’t guaranteed success either. But I am committed to solving the problems of self-directed, independent investors. If we accomplish that mission, we will end up with a very successful company too.
Silvia vs The World….I like our chances.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we discuss why he thinks the AI mid-cycle slowdown is over, why he's turning bullish on bitcoin, tokenization and stablecoins. We also cover the Fed's July rate decision and where he's finding value in gold, silver, and regional banks.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-07-08 23:13:34
A few weeks ago I said, “Most of crypto is dead, and most of what’s left isn’t coming back.” The noise didn’t surprise me. The DMs did.
Same question, over and over: okay, so what do I actually do about it?
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To investors,
Affordability remains one of the Achilles heels of the US economy. No matter how high the stock market goes, a significant portion of the population continues to feel they can’t afford every day items needed for a normal American life.
The main driver behind the lack of affordability has become a political hot potato. No one wants to accept responsibility and everyone thinks “the other side” did it. The truth is that both political parties are responsible for some part of the problem. A single boogeyman doesn’t exist. Politicians have spent money like drunken sailors and the national debt continues to grow towards the sky, which has eroded the dollar’s purchasing power and punished savers.
That fact isn’t controversial. But plenty of other theories people have presented have been labeled as conspiracy theories by those trying to protect their narrative.
One of those theories has been the rise in illegal immigration over the last few years has led to an increase in home prices. This is no longer a conspiracy theory though. The Federal Reserve of Dallas published an entire paper earlier this year titled “The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata.”
The paper unsurprisingly finds the unprecedented surge in illegal immigration created higher home prices and rents. Fox Business explains the math:
“A 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local labor force corresponded with roughly a 1% increase in overall employment, with no evidence the immigration surge reduced average wages. The same 1% increase, however, was associated with a roughly 2.2% rise in home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents. Researchers found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand, concluding the influx acted as a housing demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.”
Some people may read nuanced analysis coming out of the Fed and conclude that these academics have no clue what they are talking about. I am not exactly the biggest fan of the Fed, so I would understand the skepticism. Thankfully, we are starting to see the impact of this trend reversed, which is giving us hard data on the potential positive impact on the housing market.
Bloomberg’s Prashant Gopal and Tanaz Meghjani recently put together a great article titled “H-1B Crackdown on Indian Workers Erodes a Texas Real Estate Boom” where they write:
“Visa holders flocked to the new subdivisions spreading north through the suburbs of Prosper, Frisco and, most of all, Celina, where the population more than tripled in just five years. That helped make Collin and Denton the fastest-growing US counties among those with a population of at least 1 million, the most recent census data show. Collin also had the biggest percentage jump in Indian residents among large counties, climbing to an average of more than 116,000 in the five years through 2024, from 70,000 in the preceding five years.
But the momentum is quickly reversing. Indian buyers are disappearing from the market as federal and state governments tighten H-1B restrictions and many of the tech companies that employed the new arrivals fire workers in favor of artificial intelligence. Prices in the Collin County suburbs north of Dallas in February dropped almost 9% from a year earlier, compared with a decline of 4% in the metro area as a whole, according to data from brokerage Redfin.
The shift has knocked down home prices, slowed population expansion and risks eroding the tax base needed to fund schools and roads planned during a five-year growth streak. The changes also take a personal toll on immigrants because many have lived in the US for years and have established families and communities. Those on H-1B visas who lose their jobs not only face financial hardship but also risk having to return to their home countries if they can’t get sponsored for another position within 60 days.”
This anecdotal example hammers home the argument that widespread immigration, whether legal or illegal, has put persistent pressure on home prices. This is basic supply and demand from your Economics 101 class. Legal immigration is by definition legal. You may or may not agree with various visa programs, but that is a completely different debate.
The obvious issue that should have bipartisan support is the prevention of illegal immigration, especially if we want to improve affordability in America. The reason I say it should have bipartisan support is because both Republicans and Democrats have been talking about the negative impact of illegal immigration for decades.
You can turn on your TV and see Trump discussing it non-stop every day. You can also watch a clip like this one where President Obama was advocating for more ICE raids at people’s place of work to stamp down on illegal immigration. I was honestly shocked when I saw that clip because so much of the current political conversation has turned into partisan mud slinging.
Economics doesn’t care about the blame game though. Supply and demand rules the world. And now the Fed is talking about the potential positive impact of new immigration policy on home prices and the braoder affordability crisis. My guess is that the taboo theories are going to find a home in the mainstream conversation. I know these topics can be sensitive and politically energized, but they are important to understand as investors trying to think about what happens next.
If America becomes more affordable, not only is that good for American citizens but it will have a profound impact on our financial markets, political leaders, and sentiment across society.
Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
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Ankur Nagpal is the GP of USVC, a publicly accessible venture capital fund.
In this conversation, we break down how retail investors can now access private markets like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX for as little as $500, and the controversy around USVC's Anduril investment, portfolio strategy, QSBS, tax alpha, and what it means to build wealth in America.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
Terms and conditions apply.*
2026-07-06 21:27:49
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To investors,
The United States celebrated its 250th birthday over the weekend. While most of the country was attending barbecues, shooting fireworks, or hanging with friends and family, the official launch of the Invest America (also known as Trump Accounts) went live on Saturday, July 4th.
These accounts are a very big deal in my opinion.
Before we get to my reasoning, Google explains this program is a federally-authorized, tax-deferred custodial investment account for children in the US. The program provides newborns (born between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2028) with a one-time $1,000 government seed deposit in the account, along with allowing annual contributions of up to $5,000 from family or friends. The investment account funds are locked until the child reached at least 18 years of age, but they can continue being invested in the account until the age of retirement when they would be converted to a traditional IRA.
In order for a child to be eligible, they must be a US citizen, have a valid Social Security number, and be born between the approved dates for the program.
So why do I think these accounts are such a big deal?
First, compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. A big reason why Warren Buffett is one of the world’s wealthiest people is because he started investing at the age of 11. Given that he is now over 90 years old, that means Buffett has been compounding for more than 80 years. I don’t care how much money you start with, compounding any amount for 8 decades will make you very rich.
The newborn Invest America account holders will start their investing careers the year they are born, so this is quite the head start for each participant.
Second, contributing to the Invest America accounts has already become a flex among corporations and business leaders. For example, Michael and Susan Dell committed $6.25 billion to the initiative to seed investment accounts for 25 million American children. The pledge provides $250 each to qualifying child aged 10 and under, aiming to help families build long-term wealth. This morning Gwynne Shotwell and her husband announced the donation of 2 million shares of SpaceX to approximately 2 million children. This is more than $300 million at today’s opening stock price.
Companies like JPMorgan, Bank of America, Steak & Shake, and Coinbase have also announced programs to match an additional $1,000 for each of their employees’ eligible children. Whether we are talking corporations or individuals, these are big dollars being pledged and that will eventually inspire many others to participate outside the government’s initial $1,000 seed investment.
Third, it is very rare to have bipartisan support for anything in government, but that is exactly what has happened with these accounts. In the last few days, I have seen Republicans, Democrats, and Independents all promoting the initiative, including telling their constituents to go sign up for the accounts. It would be a kamikaze mission for an elected official to oppose financial support for newborn children, regardless of which political party is in control when the accounts launched.
Fourth, the Invest America account is held in the name of the child (parents can’t take the money) and the funds can’t be accessed until the age of 18. At that point, an individual is not allowed to take the money and go on a shopping spree. Instead, the money is specifically earmarked for college, starting a business, the down payment on a home, or the capital can stay invested.
Lastly, the recent rise of socialism in America can be traced back to the K-shaped economy. When young people feel like they are falling behind, they become sympathetic to any political movement promising them a different system, especially one that comes wrapped in free buses and free healthcare.
But rather than condemning success and promising handouts, the United States will benefit from giving children a stake in the capitalist system. Help people grow their investment assets. Let them benefit from the system, so they don’t feel like the system doesn’t work later in life. It is hard to hate a thing that has helped you gain financial security.
We know the K-shaped economy exists today. That doesn’t mean we can’t take a long-term view on making sure that gap is much narrower in the future thought. That is ultimately why I think the Invest America accounts are so interesting. They create a long-term incentive that could impact tens of millions of future Americans.
That is an outcome we should all be able to get behind. If you have children and want to check their eligibility, you can go to the website here and open an account.
I hope all of you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the AI mid-cycle slowdown, the Fed under Warsh and what rate cuts could mean for markets, the $90 trillion AI infrastructure buildout, memory and Micron's role in the AI bottleneck, and why Jordi believes bitcoin is positioned to be the best performing assets once the negatives of AI start to show up.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you're ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-06-29 22:24:29
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To investors,
The end of June marks halftime for the 2026 investment year. Unfortunately, this isn’t peewee football, so there will be no water break or orange slices for investors. If that wasn’t bad enough, we have to remember that many investors went into the year with significant exposure to the Mag 7, but those stocks have significantly lagged the performance of the 493 other stocks in the S&P index.
The good news? The month of July has been the best performing month in the stock market over the last 20 years, according to Ryan Detrick.
The folks at OddStats show that positive performance in the first half of the year during a midterm year has historically led to positive performance in the second half of the year. The second half median return has been 2.8% when the first half was green.
Interestingly, Jim Bianco shows that non-AI stocks are starting to be negatively correlated to AI stocks. He points out “over the last week or so, the $SPX is down ~2% (black). AI-related stocks (red) have slumped ~4.52%. This is ~50/75 of the S&P 500. Non-Al stocks (orange) have soared ~2.31%. This is ~425 to 450. Is this market telling us it is bullish for the economy if AI stocks get crushed?”
This is only short-term performance, so we need more data before we can conclusively determine how to use this in an investment process, but the recent development is worth continuing to watch. In the least shocking news ever, the permabears are out in full force predicting the next great Dot Com bust from AI.
Of course, none of the permabears want to acknowledge that forward P/E multiples are lower today than they were at the start of the year. Boring Biz writes:
“A lot of people continue to compare the AI cycle with the dot-com bubble, without realizing that the run-up has been driven by fundamental earnings growth, while the 2000s was mostly just hopes and dreams
Forward P/E multiples in tech have contracted even as stock prices have gone up this time around.”
I guess don’t let pesky facts get in the way of some fear porn to scare everyone into believing you are smart.
Before I go off on a passionate tangent about the permabears, let’s get back to the potential performance of the stock market going forward. We don’t need to look at history to get excited about the next six months. The US stock market is performing well because the underlying fundamentals of the leading businesses have been growing at a rapid pace.
James Thorne put it nicely when he wrote about the End of Financial Engineering:
“For the first time in over a decade, the center of gravity in American capitalism is shifting from financial engineering back to the real economy.
For years, the dominant corporate playbook was simple: keep capital expenditure lean, recycle excess cash into share buybacks, and let multiple expansion and shrinking share counts do the heavy lifting. Capex was treated as a drag; buybacks were hailed as shareholder discipline. That framework is now colliding with a new political and strategic reality.
Scott Bessent has given that shift its intellectual anchor, invoking Alexander Hamilton’s dictum that every nation ought to endeavor to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply. The point is not autarky. It is that a nation cannot remain prosperous, secure, and sovereign if it outsources the foundations of industrial power.”
If financial engineering is not going to be rewarded like it has been in the past, then where should investors look to put their capital? Thorne continues:
“The AI buildout makes the investment case obvious. Markets may punish rising capex and reduced buybacks, but that capital is not disappearing. It is moving into concrete, steel, copper, power, logistics, and machinery. The same is true of energy security, agricultural capacity, and domestic supply chains more broadly.
Investors who cling to the low-capex, high-buyback playbook are effectively betting on a shrinking productive base in a world that is relearning the value of physical capacity. The better opportunity is to invest where capital is now flowing: the companies and sectors building the real economy.”
The real economy. Companies building real things. Solving hard problems. That is where value has historically accrued. The days of financial engineering are evaporating and being replaced by productive assets that continue accelerating.
That is why the AI trade has been sustainable. This isn’t some woo-woo nonsense. It is being driven by real companies that are solving one of the biggest problems in society. Fade the trend at your own peril.
Hope you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the AI trade and why it's far from over, the memory shortage driving Micron, which AI models are winning and losing, how agentic loops are replacing white collar jobs, why bitcoin and the debasement trade are selling off — and what comes next.
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2026-06-26 21:48:17
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To investors,
All hell is about to break loose in the American AI model labs. They have previously enjoyed a dominate position in the market that allowed them to rent superhuman intelligence to billions of people and millions of businesses.
This is why Anthropic is rumored to be doing more than $50 billion in annual revenue with 15-20% free cash flow margin. You don’t accidentally build a company of that scale without having an oligopolistic position in the market. They were able to achieve this growth while OpenAI was growing to tens of billions in revenue, along with the stiff competition from Google’s Gemini, xAI’s Grok, and a few others.
But now there is a much, much bigger threat on the playing field: Chinese open-source models.
To understand what is happening, we first have to realize the problem that most companies have been facing over the last few months. Here is what I tweeted on May 22nd this year:
“There is a regime shift happening in how companies use AI models right now. Over the last year, founders and executives heavily encouraged their teams to adopt the technology. They created token leaderboards and pushed employees to get AI-pilled.
But then the expenses started to hit company financials.
Now executives are working to increase token efficiency. They still want their teams using AI models, but they are finding ways to cut overall token usage. The goal is no longer “use as many tokens as possible,” but rather “be as productive per token as possible.”
It may seem like a subtle change. It is not. Teams are re-writing their internal and external software to cut token usage, while increasing usage & productivity.
I see it inside our companies on a daily basis. For example, we have cut overall token usage at CFO Silvia but we have continued to grow the user base, assets, and total output.
This will be a major theme over the next 12 months.”
A month after that tweet, it seems that I drastically underestimated how fast and severe the pivot would be. Not only are companies looking to reduce token costs by changing their workflows or rewriting how their software uses American AI models, but now some companies are abandoning the closed-source models for a large portion of their work.
Rohan Paul writes:
“UBS says 60% of companies now watching AI budgets are moving to cheaper models and open-source Chinese models
The pressure is coming from extreme bills, including users spending up to $35K/month, teams exceeding quotas by 200%, and companies cutting internal AI tools from 5 to 2.
Companies are not abandoning AI, they are using model routing, which sends easy tasks to cheaper models and saves premium models for hard reasoning, code, and long-context work.
Chinese open-source models such as Qwen, DeepSeek, MiniMax, GLM, and Kimi now fit the enterprise cost curve because they can be run locally or used through cloud catalogs.”
So what do you do if you are an American AI model lab that is watching your customers start adopting Chinese open-source models? Well, you try to stop the exodus. One path is to out compete these open-source models, but you have already been working on that with your internal technology teams. The other path is to look for regulatory protection that stops or slows the opposition.
Bill Gurley points out that Anthropic appears to have engaged Option #2 over the last few weeks. He posted the following in a series of tweets:
“These overly aggressive grabs at regulatory capture come at the exact time as price rationalization & optimization are pushing partners and customers towards other solutions (as the example shows). Hope the government knows they are being manipulated…This is what’s causing Anthropic to aggressively beg for government protection (Rohan’s tweet above). Customers are finding cheaper alternatives. Keeping employees requires continuing ultra-rich secondaries ($$$) that are dependent on revenue growth. When you can’t win on the field go to DC…Anthropic could have sued in court (as others have). But they want something far more valuable than simple restitution. They want the US government’s “protection against competition” for years and years. A court can’t provide that.”
These are strong words coming from Gurley. There are always two sides to a story though. The counter-argument comes from Brad Gerstner when he wrote:
“Fable is currently export controlled & rumors are that 5.6 will also be subject to an approval framework. Whatever jiu jitsu the Chinese are using to get us slow down our own frontier models while letting their models run free appears to be working. Who is capturing who?”
As I said, all hell is about to break loose inside these large language models. They have essentially agreed to the US government demand to allow the latest models to get government approval. That is de-facto national control even if the large AI labs don’t realize it yet.
So the question becomes what are the ramifications of this development?
The most thorough analysis I have heard comes from Box CEO Aaron Levie. He writes:
“We now have de facto AI regulation. It’s not obvious why from here on out models that have certain levels of capability or are trained on certain compute sizes won’t have to be reviewed by the government before release.
Realistically, as AI models became more and more powerful this was going to be inevitable (I think it’s too early, but here we are). So now it’s mostly just interesting to think about the implications and scenarios from here. A few would be:
* America gets to control who gets access to frontier intelligence and when. This generally works as long as we remain at the frontier at all times and don’t have a risk of being surpassed. At the moment we have a clear lead in frontier intelligence so this is a good bet, but lots of motivated parties would love to change that.
* This likely creates backlog of AI releases which means that we will see less rapid fire back and forth jumps in model progress. Bull/fine case is that we just get bigger step functions per release at a slower rate and we end up at the same point we would have. Bear case is those incremental smaller jumps were necessary for the continued flywheel of innovation.
* Other countries likely have even more incentive to at least hedge their bets with sovereign AI strategies so aren’t dependent on access to US AI all times. Previously this was relatively moot because the alternative wasn’t good enough, but that could change out of necessity and what we’re seeing in China.
* Open weights obviously a big winner here as it becomes what likely sovereign AI gets built out on, and what (for now) can still be released to the market without the same controls. One interesting question would be how regulation eventually extends to open models, which would have its own set of long term consequences.
Anyway some big updates to everyone’s mental models of AI regulation as a result of the capabilities we’re now seeing in AI. Wild times.”
Wild times indeed. The AI industry is only going to grow in national importance, which means politicians and regulators are going to have a field day fighting for more control over time. That changes the playing field significantly and it gives the open-source models a big boost in their fight for adoption.
People and businesses want cheaper access to superhuman intelligence. The US government wants more control over the technology. And investors are looking for higher and higher rates of growth.
You simply can’t get all three of those at the same time, so at least one group is going to be disappointed. I will let you decide for yourself who will be the winners and losers.
Hope everyone has a great end to their week. I will talk to you on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
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BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.
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Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
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