2026-03-05 00:57:28
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To investors,
Ray Dalio was interviewed on the All-In Podcast earlier this week. At one point, he laid out his bear case against Bitcoin. He said:
Central banks don’t want bitcoin.
Governments can track bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a small, controlled market.
Quantum computers will crack bitcoin.
Take a listen:
I respect Dalio. He built Bridgewater into the world’s largest hedge fund. His framework for understanding debt cycles is genuinely brilliant. But his analysis of Bitcoin is stuck in 2017. He’s applying 20th-century assumptions to a 21st-century monetary network. The data and current trends tell a very different story than his narrative.
Before I explain where I disagree, and to be fair to Dalio, he does make some points that Bitcoiners should take seriously rather than dismiss:
1. Bitcoin does trade like a risk asset in the short term. In periods of liquidity stress, Bitcoin has been “sold first, asked questions later.” Its correlation with tech stocks remains elevated. Dalio’s observation that Bitcoin acts more like a “liquidity gauge” than a “fear hedge” is supported by recent price action.
2. Gold has millennia of Lindy effect. Bitcoin is 17 years old, which can feel like a long time, but gold has been a store of value for 5,000+ years. NYDIG’s analysis concedes that gold has the edge on “societal adoption and acceptance” and is “larger in total value and less volatile.” Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is still ~52% versus gold’s ~15.5%. The gap is narrowing, which is attractive to large pools of capital, but it hasn’t closed.
3. The major central banks are not buying. The Fed and ECB have explicitly said no. While smaller nations and sub-sovereign entities are adopting Bitcoin, the two institutions that anchor the global monetary system remain skeptical. Anyone who is claiming it wouldn’t matter if the Fed and ECB got involved are delusional.
4. Dalio’s debt cycle framework is correct. The U.S. deficit hit 6% of GDP. National debt is $38.5 trillion. The Fed has cut rates six times since September 2024 and resumed QE. Money supply expansion is coming. Dalio is right that this environment rewards hard assets. His error is in assuming gold is the only one that benefits.
Now with all this said, Ray Dalio is one of the great macro thinkers of our time. His debt cycle framework is essential reading and he should get much more credit than he already does. His instinct to hold non-sovereign stores of value in this environment is correct. Essentially, Ray Dalio is a hardcore bitcoiner and doesn’t even realize it yet.
His Bitcoin analysis is frozen in time. He’s arguing against the Bitcoin of 2018, which was before the ETFs, before the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, before central banks started testing Bitcoin allocations, before BIP-360, before $95 billion in ETF AUM, before 193 public companies added it to their balance sheets, before the hashrate crossed 1 Zettahash.
The data doesn’t support “central banks don’t want Bitcoin.” The data shows a sovereign adoption curve that is accelerating. The data doesn’t support “Bitcoin can be controlled.” The data shows it’s the one asset that survived a global government crackdown in China and came back stronger. The data doesn’t support “quantum will crack it.” The data shows the threat is decades away and Bitcoin developers are already building solutions.
Dalio holds 1% of his portfolio in Bitcoin. He allocates 5-15% to gold. In ten years, he may look back and wish those numbers were reversed.
The irony is that Dalio’s own framework of debt cycles, currency debasement, and the decline of the “rules-based order” is the single best argument for Bitcoin. He just hasn’t followed his own logic to its conclusion yet.
Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Phong Le is CEO of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), and David Bailey is CEO & Chairman of KindlyMD. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, we discuss Strategy’s evolution from a bitcoin holding company to a leveraged treasury and now a digital credit platform, including the launch of its perpetual preferred product designed to offer bitcoin exposure with lower volatility and yield. We also cover capital markets strategy, competition among bitcoin treasury companies, macro impacts, and bitcoin’s continued integration into Wall Street and global finance.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
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Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-03-02 22:32:09
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To investors,
The United States is on a generational run to start the year. We sent Delta Force down to Venezuela to grab Nicolas Maduro in the middle of the night, we helped the Mexican military take out the world’s most important cartel leader, and then we bombed Iran over the weekend to successfully eliminate Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Now I have been to war, so I understand how ugly these situations can get. I am praying for the safety of every American servicemember, along with the innocent citizens of Iran. Things appear to be quite chaotic and uncertain at the moment, so hopefully this conflict will be over sooner rather than later.
This decision to bomb Iran carries a lot of significance for the President and his administration. Not only are American lives at risk, with at least four American military members reportedly already having been killed, but the President risks losing the support of the American people if things don’t go well on a short timeline.
The response from the American people after the first bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, or the capture of Maduro, was generally positive because the United States was swift in victory. As the saying goes, history is written by the winners, so the President and his team must win.
With that said, my job is to help investors understand what is happening in the world and how those developments could impact their investment portfolio. So here is how the current chaos in the Middle East is likely to affect each asset class.
First, crude oil should go sharply higher. Iran is a major oil producer and sits along the Strait of Hormuz, which is the chokepoint for ~20% of global oil supply, so any military conflict there immediately prices in supply disruption risk.
US equities will likely go lower. War introduces massive uncertainty around corporate earnings, consumer spending, and economic stability, which causes investors to rapidly de-risk by selling stocks.
Gold should go much higher because gold is the quintessential safe-haven asset, and geopolitical conflict, especially one involving a major military power, triggers a classic flight-to-safety bid.
US Treasuries are likely to see higher prices and lower yields as investors flee risky assets and move into US government bonds (aka the world’s deepest safe-haven market). This drives prices up and yields down in a textbook risk-off move.
As for the US Dollar, you should expect a move higher. The dollar strengthens during global crises because it’s the world’s reserve currency and the ultimate liquidity destination when fear spikes. This is known as the “dollar smile” effect.
Everyone’s favorite asset class…bitcoin & crypto, will unfortunately have some short-term headwinds because of the Iran situation. Despite the “digital gold” narrative, crypto recently trades as a high-beta risk asset during acute geopolitical shocks, which means it could fall alongside equities as investors rush to traditional safe havens.
Another area to pay attention to is international equities. These should move lower with a few exceptions. Global stocks sell off on contagion fear and risk aversion, but oil-exporting nations (Saudi Arabia, UAE) may outperform while oil-importing economies (Japan, India, Europe) get hit harder due to surging energy costs.
In the real estate market, expect to see significant negative pressure. Rising oil prices fuel inflation expectations and push mortgage rates higher, while geopolitical uncertainty dampens consumer confidence and big-ticket purchase decisions.
Lastly, industrial commodities will be the most confusing because there will likely be a mixed reaction to the current events. For example, energy-linked commodities (petrochemicals, fertilizers) spike on supply fears, while demand-sensitive metals (copper, steel) face downward pressure from expectations of slower global economic growth.
This analysis of various asset classes is based on the idea that the US would be engaged in a prolonged conflict with Iran. I am hoping that is not the case. If the US can claim victory and disengage from the conflict relatively quickly, there would be a much more muted impact on various assets.
As an investor, I am preparing myself for significant volatility and uncertainty in the coming weeks and months. It is obvious that the White House is executing a specific plan on the geopolitical stage. Regardless of whether you agree with them or not, you have to be aware of what is happening. It is easy to get caught up in the chaos, but my best advice is to stay focused on the long-term resiliency of your portfolio.
You can look for short-term opportunities to exploit if mispricing present themselves, but very few people are well positioned to be a day trader. You are an investor, as am I. Stick with the long-term plan and you will likely do just fine.
Before I let you go, I also want to issue a word of caution when it comes to each of you and your personal safety. Please be careful in the coming weeks. There are many threats, both foreign and domestic, that are worth paying attention to. It is unknown how many sleeper cells in the US could be activated because of these attacks in Iran.
Let us all hope that the conflict is over sooner rather than later and as many innocent lives are preserved as possible. Have a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time.
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this episode, we break down the viral Citrini paper and whether AI disruption is being overstated or simply repriced by markets. We also discuss compressed software valuations, NVIDIA, shifting credit conditions, and why crypto and bitcoin could benefit in a world that increasingly needs speed, verification, and secure financial rails.
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Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-28 00:18:57
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To investors,
Jack Dorsey announced his company Block, formerly known as Square, was laying off more than 4,000 employees yesterday. That is a reduction in force (RIF) of close to half of the 10,000 employees at the company.
The stated reason for the layoffs was artificial intelligence. Here is what Jack wrote in his memo to the team:
“we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly.”
Given the recent attention to AI’s impact on the labor market, the media and online commentators immediately started using this story as an example of AI’s negative impact on humans.
CNBC’s Diedra Boss wrote “This is a profitable, growing company cutting nearly half its workforce. If Jack Dorsey executes well post-cut, this becomes a template. 3 days ago everyone was calling the Citrini piece “science fiction”... now it’s hitting a little closer to home.”
But this is the wrong take. And it didn’t take long for the internet to quickly realize that the AI “excuse” may just be a coverup for a poorly managed business.
“In 3 years from December 2019 to December 2022, Block $XYZ more than tripled its headcount from 3,900 to 12,500.
Unwinding less than half an insane COVID overhiring binge has much more to do with Jack Dorsey’s managerial incompetence than whether AI is going to take your job.”
In addition to this take, we can see that other software companies are run much leaner than Block. Austin Reif writes:
“Robinhood has 2500 employees (market cap of $70b). Coinbase has 4500 employees (market cap $50b). Square (market cap $30b) just cut to 6000 employees. I wouldnt say this is all the sudden a symbol of AI transformation and leanness.”
I agree with Austin. The most obvious comp to Square/Block is Stripe and they are more than 5x larger in market cap than Block, yet they only have 8,000 total employees. And don’t forget, Jack Dorsey is not exactly known for running lean organizations. Elon Musk bought Twitter and immediately fired about 80% of the employees. That company is doing better than ever according to various metrics.
In response to the mismanagement allegations, Jack Dorsey acknowledged the business had been bloated (“yes we over-hired during covid”), so it seems fair to say these layoffs are more driven by a business that needed to get lean, rather than some important data point around AI layoffs.
But guess what? The truth doesn’t matter anymore. People are going to take the stated reason as fact and you are going to see two big repercussions:
the media is likely to keep pointing to this example when discussing the negative side effects of AI.
More CEOs are going to use this moment as motivation to lay off a large portion of their employees and blame AI as the reason.
Regarding the media, the doomsday predicting will continue and it will be a headwind for software stocks in the short-term. I believe that is the wrong conclusion for investors though. Block just announced a large reduction in force and the stock went up 20% in overnight trading. Investors should love a trend where companies can become more productive and profitable, but the existential risk of “will this company be around in 5 years?” has spooked many investors into a risk-off mentality.
Regarding other CEOs, this will be the same playbook we saw during COVID. As soon as executives realized there was a boogeyman they could leverage to make hard decisions, they all rushed to exploit the opportunity. There is nothing better than telling your affected employees, and your concerned shareholders, that you are laying off a large portion of your staff because of the positive development of AI, rather than having to admit you mismanaged your business and over-hired.
This copy cat approach to larger layoffs is not as concerning to me, because the businesses who engage in it were going to do the layoffs at some point anyways.
My advice to investors is to pay extra attention to your portfolio over the next 12 months. There should be higher levels of volatility as the world tries to digest what is happening. Two things are going to be true: (1) AI will automate many jobs that were previously thought to be insulated from technology disruption, and (2) many companies are going to use this opportunity to create change inside their organizations.
The AI layoffs are coming. It is going to happen faster and more broadly than people expect. But this is not what is happening at Block. Don’t let the mainstream conversation fool you into thinking otherwise.
Hope you have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Chris Kline is the COO & Co-Founder of Bitcoin IRA. In this conversation, we discuss how wealthy investors use retirement accounts to reduce taxes, why volatility can create opportunities like Roth conversions, and the mistakes people make by holding assets in the wrong account.
We also cover bitcoin in retirement portfolios, estate planning strategies, and how macro conditions like inflation, deflation, and Fed policy may impact long-term asset allocation.
Enjoy!
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-26 23:39:11
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To investors,
The main story for investors over the last few weeks has been the rapid sell-off in software stocks. To better understand why this has happened, I asked Silvia (the AI-powered CFO we built) to explain. Here is what she said:
The selloff — dubbed the “SaaSpocalypse” — has wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization from software stocks since late January 2026. The primary driver is a sudden and intense fear that AI, particularly the emergence of autonomous AI agents (like Anthropic’s Claude Cowork), is on the verge of cannibalizing the traditional SaaS business model. Investors are worried that if AI tools can replace entire software workflows — from coding to customer service to IT management — then the per-seat, subscription-based pricing model that has underpinned SaaS valuations for a decade is fundamentally threatened. The iShares Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has plunged roughly 20% year-to-date, with major names hit hard: Microsoft is down ~28% from its highs, Oracle ~55%, Salesforce ~30%, and Adobe ~27%, according to USA Today and Reuters.
Adding fuel to the fire is a massive sector rotation. Capital is flooding out of legacy SaaS names and into AI infrastructure plays, value stocks, and industrials. Forward earnings multiples for software have compressed from roughly 39x to 21x — hitting multi-year lows — even though fundamentals have largely held up. According to AInvest, 100% of reporting S&P 500 software firms beat profit targets last quarter, with 80% exceeding revenue estimates. Companies like ServiceNow and AppLovin posted record earnings but still saw their shares punished, as Wall Street has shifted its focus from current profitability to terminal value — essentially asking whether these incumbents can survive a world of autonomous AI agents. J.P. Morgan has called the selloff driven by “broken logic”, arguing the market is pricing in worst-case disruption scenarios that haven’t materialized.
These are fairly big promises that stock market bears are relying on for their investment thesis. It doesn’t make sense that all software companies are suddenly significantly less valuable than a few weeks ago.
Silvia went on to explain the key debate between this being an overreaction from investors or a structural turning point in the market:
“Bears argue that AI agents will commoditize software, compress margins, and erode installed bases — some analysts at Bain and Forrester note that CIOs are consolidating software budgets and redirecting spend toward AI tools, not expanding SaaS footprints.
Bulls counter that deeply embedded “system-of-record” platforms (like Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Intuit) have sticky customer bases and recurring revenue that won’t evaporate overnight, and that current valuations may present a compelling entry point.
The truth likely falls somewhere in between — AI will reshape the sector, but the indiscriminate nature of this selloff is pricing many quality names as if their businesses are already in decline, when the data doesn’t yet support that conclusion.”
One of the questions I continue thinking about is the relationship between software stocks and bitcoin. If software stocks are selling off because of the AI fears, then why would bitcoin sell off at the same time? Are investors worried about bitcoin in relationship to AI?
Silvia explained the relationship well:
The correlation between Bitcoin and software stocks has surged to striking levels in early 2026. As of February, Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) hit 0.73. This is a remarkably high reading. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has similarly swung from -0.68 to +0.72 in just a few weeks. Meanwhile, its correlation with gold sits at a paltry 0.12. In practice, Bitcoin is trading like a high-beta software stock, not a safe haven.
The mechanism driving this linkage is institutional flow dynamics, not fundamental overlap. Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024, Bitcoin has been increasingly held within the same institutional portfolios as growth and tech equities. When a risk-off event hits — like the AI-driven software selloff triggered by Anthropic’s Claude Cowork launch — portfolio managers de-risk across the board, selling both software stocks and Bitcoin simultaneously. Bitcoin ETFs saw $272M in daily outflows at the peak of the selloff, and cumulative crypto product outflows reached $1.7B. This isn’t a crypto-specific story — it’s a broader risk-off regime where capital rotates out of growth assets and into gold, treasuries, and cash. Bitcoin, as a risk-on asset held by the same institutions, gets caught in that undertow.
The key nuance — and what makes this particularly painful — is that Bitcoin exhibits a negative skew in its correlation. Bitcoin follows software stocks down more aggressively than it follows them up. When IGV rallies, Bitcoin’s reaction is muted; when IGV sells off, Bitcoin tends to amplify the move. This asymmetry is the worst of both worlds — Bitcoin captures the downside of tech correlation without fully participating in the upside. Stifel has even projected Bitcoin could fall to $38,000, citing its 0.78 correlation with the Nasdaq 100 as evidence it now behaves like a leveraged tech bet rather than a dollar hedge.
It is clear that the selloffs are highly correlated right now. The most likely scenario where the correlation breaks down is if institutional investors stop treating bitcoin as a growth/risk-on asset.
As long as Bitcoin sits in the same sleeve of institutional portfolios as software stocks and is governed by the same macro triggers (Fed policy, liquidity, risk appetite), it will keep trading like a leveraged tech bet. For this to change, a critical mass of Bitcoin’s marginal buyers would need to shift from momentum-chasing hedge funds and ETF-driven retail to structural, price-insensitive holders…mainly entities that buy and hold regardless of quarterly macro shifts.
The most plausible catalyst is sovereign adoption at scale.
The U.S. has already established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using seized assets, and countries like Brazil, El Salvador, and Bhutan are exploring or actively accumulating Bitcoin as a sovereign reserve. Central bank gold reserves have now surpassed foreign-held U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, which could be a structural “sovereign rotation” that Bitcoin could eventually benefit from if it proves to be a credible neutral reserve asset. If major central banks (particularly China or Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds) began actively acquiring Bitcoin that would create a massive base of price-insensitive demand that absorbs sell pressure during risk-off events, fundamentally dampening its equity correlation.
This is essentially what has been happening with gold, so bitcoin aspires to follow in the precious metals footsteps.
Any decoupling of bitcoin from software stocks will be a multi-year process.
It requires a gradual shift in Bitcoin’s holder base from speculative/institutional to sovereign/structural, a compression in volatility, and at least one crisis where Bitcoin doesn’t sell off with everything else. The sovereign reserve trend is the most promising catalyst on the horizon, but as long as ETF-driven institutional flows dominate Bitcoin’s marginal pricing, it will continue to behave as a high-beta extension of the growth/tech complex during periods of stress.
So one way to think about bitcoin’s current correlation is the asset is a victim of its own success. We wanted mainstream adoption, which what we have accomplished, but that mainstream adoption (especially by Wall Street) brings side-effects. The new correlation with software stocks is the most obvious one.
Bitcoin will be just fine. I anticipate it will continue to do very well in the future. Your challenge as an investor is to avoid getting bored. Best of luck to each of you.
You can sign up to use Silvia for free here: www.cfosilvia.com
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Matt Cole is the CEO of Strive Asset Management, and Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin’s volatility doesn’t change the long-term story, how institutions think about drawdowns, and what today’s Fed policy could mean for bitcoin and other risk assets. We also touch on digital credit, bitcoin-backed yield, and why volatility may actually be one of bitcoin’s biggest advantages for long-term investors.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-26 00:45:24
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To investors,
The President held his annual State of the Union last night. He gave the longest speech in modern history at the event and covered many different topics.
My personal favorite moments were the patriotic acknowledgement of various American heroes. The USA mens hockey team that recently won gold medals were in attendance and received a standing ovation. Scott Ruskan, the Coast Guard rescue swimmer who saved 165 lives during the Camp Mystic floods, was recognized. Air Force Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe who was shot in the head in Washington DC last year got similar treatment.
And Chief Warrant Officer 5 Eric Slover, the heroic helicopter pilot who was seriously wounded during the Maduro raid in Venezuela, was awarded the Medal of Honor (the military’s highest honor) in front of the Commander in Chief and the nation’s leaders.
This spectacle was a complete cultural victory for patriotic Americans who want to see the country continue to thrive and understand that our country is built by courageous men and women who are willing to do the impossible for the flag on their chest.
President Trump also spent a substantial amount of time discussing the US economy. He reiterated his belief that the administration has led a strong economic turnaround, including bringing inflation down substantially. Here were some of the key quotes:
He described inheriting “a nation in crisis with a stagnant economy, inflation at record levels” from Biden, calling it “the worst inflation in the history of our country.”
He stated: “Inflation is plummeting,” and “in 12 months, my administration has driven core inflation down to the lowest level in more than five years. And in the last three months of 2025, it was down to 1.7%.”
On gasoline: “Gasoline, which reached a peak of over $6 a gallon in some states… it is now below $2.30 a gallon in most states and in some places $1.99 a gallon. And when I visited the great State of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.”
He highlighted specific food prices coming down, such as: “The price of eggs is down 60%,” and “even beef, which was very high, is starting to come down significantly.”
Now I know there will be an incredible debate about what numbers are accurate and whether the President was “right” or “wrong” in his claims. I am not interested in the political nonsense. I am merely viewing this State of the Union through the perspective of an investor, so I immediately go to the data source I trust most: Truflation.
According to the real-time metric, inflation was 2.3% a year ago and it now sits around 0.9%, which is a significant drop in just 12 months.
But more interestingly, Truflation is reporting deflation is already here in a few sectors. There is a -1.5% year-over-year growth rate in the median sales price of existing homes.
The Truflation Breakfast Index, which tracks real-time price movements across eleven essential breakfast components, including Milk, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Eggs, Oats, Orange Juice, Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar, Wheat, and Tea, has seen a substantial decrease in prices over the last 12 months.
These are just a few examples where the real-time, alternative metrics are telling a compelling story about the direction for consumer prices. With that said, you will still here many people complain about how expensive everything is right now. Both things can be true at the same time.
Prices can be coming down on a relative basis over the last year, while consumers are still feeling the negative effects of the substantial increase in prices over the last half-decade. This is where so much of the controversy and debate around economic data lies in my opinion. Both sides are partially correct, so they each dig their heels in and vigorously defend their position.
The most important thing for investors right now is avoiding the rearview mirror. It doesn’t matter what happened 5 years ago, nor does it matter what happened over the last 12 months. The only thing that will impact your portfolio is what happens next and the current risk is deflation. If that becomes reality, the government will print more money and advocate for lower and lower interest rates.
Things are about to get even crazier, so buckle up.
The State of the Union may have been a spectacle, but you haven’t seen anything yet compared to what is likely to happen in the market.
Hope you have a great day. I will talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Bo Hines is the CEO of Tether US and a former White House crypto advisor who helped shape U.S. digital-asset policy during a critical moment for the industry. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, we discuss Bo’s work in the White House on crypto policy, including the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the GENIUS Act, and the push for regulatory clarity. We also cover stablecoin adoption, why UX matters more than yield, how Tether is connecting global markets to U.S. capital, and why stablecoins could be the on-ramp to the next phase of bitcoin and financial infrastructure.
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You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2026-02-24 23:37:23
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To investors,
Bitcoin launched more than 15 years ago under the promise of creating peer-to-peer electronic cash. Millions of people got excited about the prospect of a decentralized, digital currency serving as a check on central banks and governments around the world. This explosion of adoption and demand led the asset from a penny to over $126,000 in less than two decades.
Not bad for a piece of technology that was mocked, ridiculed, and fought along the way.
But bitcoin has fallen approximately 50% from the all-time high and the skeptics are taking victory laps saying “I told you so!” Are they right? And why has bitcoin fallen so aggressively?
Before I explain the drivers of bitcoin’s fall, we have to contextualize bitcoin’s recent drop with prior bear markets where the asset fell 85% or more on numerous occasions. These past boom-bust cycles were the product of abnormal volatility, which may have been one of the largest drivers of attention and adoption for bitcoin.
If you look at the last few months, bitcoin is down approximately 48% from the cycle top. Bitcoin had fallen about 50% at this stage of the bear market in 2018 and about 30% at this stage of the bear market in 2022. I am not sure investors covet the consolation prize of “bitcoin always does this!,” but at least the data supports the argument.
Next, we have to ask ourselves why bitcoin has been selling off. There is a lot to unpack here, so I will do my best to outline the various components and complexity.
First, many investors have been believers in the 4-year cycle. They were expecting bitcoin to peak in Q4 of 2025, so they started to sell at the end of September and early October in anticipation of that development. Second, some of the largest individual bitcoin holders have been holding the asset for more than a decade. The $100,000 per coin milestone served as a psychological finish line for some portion of these people, which led them to sell many of their bitcoin in the second half of last year.
Third, bitcoin has become more financialized with the adoption of the asset by Wall Street. The various financial products allow investors to gain exposure in different ways, while collectively dampening volatility on the asset. That lack of volatility is attractive to large pools of capital, but it is a big deterrent for individual investors.
These three reasons seem logical enough, but I am starting to think there is an even more important reason that bitcoin sold off so aggressively: bitcoin is sounding the alarm on liquidity and deflation.
We know that inflation is falling in the United States. The government’s inflation metric fell from 2.7% to 2.4% in the last reading and Truflation is showing real-time inflation around 1% right now. Remember, Truflation has a 97% correlation to CPI with a 1-month lag. This means we should expect inflation to continue falling aggressively in the government metrics over the next 2-3 months.
Roger Montgomery points out that “Cross Border Capital’s Michael Howell believes a 5-6-year cycle exists in the underlying momentum of the components of global liquidity. Right now, the outlook is bleak because Global Liquidity has peaked, is entering a downswing, and the next trough isn't expected until 2027.”
If Howell is right, the short-term performance of bitcoin and other asymmetric assets may be less than ideal. Not only do you have decreasing global liquidity, but you also have the deflationary impact of tariffs, deportations, artificial intelligence and robotics. That is a total of five negative trends that would create a significant headwind for bitcoin through 2026.
But I don’t come with only bad news. These price drawdowns in the digital currency tend to be gifts to long-term oriented investors.
X user “PricedInBitcoin” writes “Bitcoin is down 47% from the all-time high. Historically, buying at -50% drawdown has a 90% win rate over 1 year with a median return of +95%. At -70%, the win rate is 100%. Never lost. Worst outcome was still +25%. LOCK IN.”
So now the ball is in your court as an investor. We know all assets, including bitcoin, are getting hammered by the perfect storm of contracting liquidity and deflationary forces. When you decide to start allocating your capital into the market is your choice.
History suggests buying assets at a discount tends to be a good idea. The biggest question in my mind is “when?!”
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Caitlin Long is the founder and CEO of Custodia Bank and a pioneer at the intersection of traditional finance and crypto. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York.
In this conversation, we break down stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and U.S. banking regulation, explaining why stablecoins were pushed outside the banking system and how tokenized dollars could reshape payments and markets. We also discusses custody risk, bank account closures, bitcoin ETFs, and the key barriers still slowing crypto’s integration into traditional finance.
Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Figure – Enter to win $25k USDC with Democratized Prime while earning ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com
Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.
Gemini - Earn crypto rewards on every purchase with the new Gemini Credit Card.
Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.