2025-10-29 21:35:09
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To investors,
Today’s Federal Reserve meeting is the talk of finance. The central bank has been behind the curve for months. They previously prided themselves on being “data dependent,” but earlier this year there was a subtle pivot in strategy and the Fed began trying to predict future inflation levels.
The big fear in the first half of 2025 was tariffs were going to create significant inflation. This was the excuse the Fed used for explaining why they were not cutting interest rates. If that inflation was likely to show up, the Fed’s logic would have made sense.
But it was obvious from the beginning that higher inflation was not going to happen. Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve’s transition from data dependence to market predictor prevented them from making good monetary policy decisions.
Thankfully, the Fed has now been backed into a corner. They can’t ignore reality anymore. Instead of talking about inflation concerns, the Fed has found the new boogeyman: the labor market.
Rather than admit they were wrong in their prior predictions, Jerome Powell and his crew are simply saying “the labor market is forcing us to change our mind.” Smart strategy from the central bankers. They never have to admit a mistake and claim victory on addressing a weak labor market.
There are a few important things to pay attention to today though. The biggest thing in my opinion is how strong guidance on future rate cuts will be. I don’t expect the Fed to say how many cuts, nor how large the future cuts will be, but given the economic data trends it would make sense for them to commit to continued rate cuts at the next few meetings.
Mohamed A. El-Erian doesn’t expect this to happen though. He writes “the Federal Reserve will deliver the widely anticipated 25 bps cut and signal the impending end of QT. It is also likely to acknowledge that the inflationary pass-through of tariffs has been less than expected. The world’s most powerful central bank is unlikely, however, to explicitly validate the additional cuts that markets have priced in or fully embrace the significant productivity upside from AI and other innovations.”
This approach would be surprising to me because it seems so obvious that the labor market is getting smacked in the face by technology forces. Just look at the recent layoff announcements by many companies that are actively implementing artificial intelligence and automation throughout their business.
You rarely see more than 100,000 employees being laid off when stocks are hitting all-time highs, companies are reporting record earnings, and year-over-year growth rates are accelerating. This explosion of productivity is coming as a direct result of technology making companies more efficient, which will only continue in the coming years.
So the Fed can ignore technology all they want, but it won’t change reality. And the reality is that interest rates will have to continue falling in order to address the labor issues.
So this brings us to the most important question for investors…where will the market go from here? What should we expect with asset prices?
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick reminds us the past 21 times the Fed cut interest rates with the S&P 500 within 2% of an all-time high, stocks were higher a year later 21 times.
Ryan also goes on to explain “the last two months of the year (November and December) have never been lower when the S&P was up the six months leading up to them. In fact, the avg return was a very impressive 6.0%, nearly double the avg return for the usually bullish last two months.”
So my big takeaway is Powell and the Fed are going to play their usual game of word salad. They will create drama and the media will eat it up like a soap opera. But none of that is going to matter. As long as we get the rate cut, stocks and bitcoin are going higher. There is nothing the pessimists and doomsday predictors can do about it.
Markets like cheap capital. Investors love interest rate cuts into bull markets. And we are likely to get both later today.
Have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano break down today’s markets — from DeFi and stablecoins reshaping finance to the U.S.–China trade deal and its impact on investors.We also discuss why sentiment is turning bullish, how to think about bitcoin and gold heading into year-end, and what White House Asset Management’s moves signal for the market.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-10-28 21:01:45
The 3rd annual Bitcoin Investor Week is returning to NYC on February 9th - 13th. This is the largest gathering of serious bitcoin investors in the world. 2,500+ people are expected this year.
Speakers include Jan van Eck, Lyn Alden, Jeff Park, Anthony Scaramucci, Matt Cole, Caitlin Long, Dan Tapiero, Mark Yusko, Brandon Lutnick, Fred Thiel, and many others.
TICKETS: https://bitcoininvestorweek.com
To investors,
I published a conversation with Coinbase’s Head of Consumer and Business Products yesterday. In the recording, Max Branzburg mentioned a “DeFi mullet,” which was described as the “easy Coinbase experience in the front and DeFi in the back.”
This comment got me thinking about what is happening at the intersection of crypto and traditional finance. First, it is clear that “crypto” is not going to be a thing in a decade. Everything will be “finance” and you won’t know the difference between centralized or decentralized infrastructure.
This is similar to what happened with the internet. There used to be internet companies and non-internet companies. People used to be considered cutting edge if they were using the internet, but now you would be deemed an idiot if you didn’t use the internet. The same thing is happening with crypto.
Everyone from the new fintechs like Robinhood or the legacy firms like Blackrock are realizing they have to embrace this new technology in a variety of ways. No one calls Blackrock a bitcoin company and I don’t think many investors would consider Robinhood a crypto company. But those details don’t change the fact that each company is using this new technology to gain an advantage in the marketplace and better serve their customers.
This decreasing importance of the “crypto” industry is a good sign. It means technology is becoming standard and expected. You can see the convergence happening perfectly with exchanges. Coinbase, Kraken, and many other crypto-native exchanges are racing to list public equities via tokenized securities. The fintechs like Robinhood, Public.com, eToro, and WeBull are quickly adding various crypto assets to their platform. Even ICE, CBOE, and Nasdaq are all finding various crypto products or companies to list on their exchanges.
You aren’t going to have crypto and non-crypto exchanges. The end game is for exchanges to list public equities, crypto assets, and prediction markets all in one place. This is why Coinbase is publicly saying they want to be the “everything exchange,” while ICE is investing billions of dollars in prediction markets and crypto products.
These firms are battling to be the future dominant venue for investors to buy and sell assets, regardless of their structure. The winner will capture tens of billions of dollars in profits. No wonder these exchanges are acting like they are in an all-out war for market share.
But exchanges are not the only place this is happening.
It seems like every day brings new headlines about stablecoins being adopted by the legacy finance players. Yesterday, we saw Coinbase announce a new partnership with Citi to “make on and off-ramping crypto easier for Citi’s institutional clients.” As part of the announcement, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said “It’s not a debate anymore - crypto and stablecoins are the tools that will update the global financial system.”
I think it is hard to argue with his logic at this point.
Large financial institutions like Citi are not the only ones trying to create shareholder value by embracing stablecoins in the legacy system. Western Union says they are piloting stablecoin settlement rails to speed up cross-border payments and cut reliance on SWIFT.
Their CEO Devin McGranahan says the company “sees stablecoins as an opportunity, not a threat.” That seems like a fair perspective to have, but the real question is whether these legacy companies will be able to move quickly enough to avoid disruption.
Based on the fact that Western Union’s stock is down more than 50% over the last 5 years, it is more likely the market believes Western Union is going to be one of the carcasses left on the playing field by stablecoins and crypto-native payment rails.
But here is the thing about stablecoins, right now you have to be a crypto-native to use these assets. You need to know what a wallet is. You need to know the difference between USDT, USDC, USDe, and many others. You have to understand how wallet addresses work, along with making technical decisions like which blockchain to leverage for your transaction.
Normal people aren’t going to do any of that. They want to simply send, receive, and hold US dollars. This is where the “DeFi mullet” comes into play. The interface has to be familiar and trusted, while the infrastructure and plumbing can be completely upgraded.
Victor Yaw has a great way to frame what is likely to happen. He writes “stablecoins will disappear into the plumbing of finance. Money will move across borders the way data moves across networks: instantly, programmatically, and without intermediaries noticing.”
That sounds magical. Users get a better experience, while avoiding any requirement to learn new technologies. Add in the fact that large organizations like Blackrock, JPMorgan, Citi, Venmo, and PayPal will be offering these services and you can see why adoption is only going to become more pervasive over time.
We have already seen bitcoin find success in the legacy system by companies putting the digital currency in traditional wrappers like ETFs or public companies. Now we will see similar things happen with stablecoins, but it won’t be ETFs and public companies. Rather it will be payment services and exchange platforms bringing this technology to users.
The DeFi mullet is coming. The question is who will be the biggest winner?
There is a trillion dollar reward waiting for whoever captures the opportunity.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Max Branzburg is the Head of Consumer Product at Coinbase, one of the most important companies in the crypto ecosystem.
In this episode, we dive into how Coinbase is building the future of finance — from expanding bitcoin access to launching innovative products that bridge crypto and traditional markets. Max breaks down what’s driving Coinbase’s rapid product development, how they’re scaling to millions of users, and why the next wave of financial innovation will come from within crypto.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-10-27 21:28:28
Join myself and ResiClub Founder Lance Lambert on Friday, November 7th in New York City for a one-day conference bringing together the housing market’s top investors, developers, builders, lenders, and brokers. Expect top-tier speakers, networking with industry leaders, and data-driven conversation around the next decade of housing.
Speakers highlights include…
Bill Pulte, Director, FHFA (Virtual)
Sean Dobson, Founder & CEO, Amherst
Jim Jacobi, President, Parkland Communities
Kaz Nejatian, CEO, OpenDoor (Virtual)
Raunaq Singh, Founder & CEO, Roam
Allan Merrill, Chairman & CEO, Beazer Homes
John Rogers, Chief Data & Analytics Officer, Cotality
Tickets are limited, secure your spot here: https://luma.com/ResiDay2025
To investors,
Asset prices love responding to market catalysts. Sometimes catalysts are telegraphed and other times they come as a surprise. Take the Federal Reserve’s planned meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Every investor knows it is coming. It has been marked on calendars all year. Most investors expect the central bank to cut interest rates. In fact, Polymarket is currently showing a 98% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
Asset prices like cheaper capital because investors push further out on the risk curve. Lower rates signal a continued tailwind for stocks and bitcoin. And it is not just the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions that matter in this regard.
Bitwise’s André Dragosch writes “the number of global rate cuts [in the] past 24 months is already higher than after Covid but bears still think bitcoin has already peaked.”
It is crazy to see 312 interest rate cuts around the world over the last 24 months when you realize the Fed’s interest rate is still set at 4% or higher. There is a lot of room to go for America’s central bank to bring rates back down to 1-2%.
But the interest rate cuts this week are only part of the story. Everyone knows those cuts are coming, but what we didn’t know until this weekend was how likely a US-China trade deal was.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did the media rounds Sunday morning and wanted to make sure the world knew a trade deal is coming. Bloomberg writes:
“Top trade negotiators for the US and China said they came to terms on a range of contentious points, setting the table for leaders Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to finalize a deal and ease trade tensions that have rattled global markets.
After two days of talks in Malaysia wrapped up Sunday, a Chinese official said the two sides reached a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls, fentanyl and shipping levies.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking later in an interview with CBS News, said Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods “is effectively off the table” and he expected the Asian nation to make “substantial” soybean purchases as well as offer a deferral on sweeping rare earth controls. The US wouldn’t change its export controls directed at China, he added.”
So what should we expect to happen if the US-China trade deal gets announced? Jordi Visser explains how bullish it should be for stocks and bitcoin:
Investors like certainty. They want predictability. If they get clarity in the US-China trade negotiations, markets are going to take off higher. Don’t believe me? Scott Bessent’s commentary from the weekend has already sent stocks and bitcoin inching higher as investors anticipate the big trade deal confirmation.
See here is the thing people don’t want to admit: the world operates in the middle of extreme positions. It is true that US and China are locked in economic competition. They both wish they could decouple. But that is not reality. These two countries depend on each other. So the trade deal is going to get done.
And markets know this. The market also knows rates are going to come down and the government will never stop printing money. Each of these three things are bullish for stocks and bitcoin.
But I do have one surprise for you. Gold’s explosive move in the last few months probably signals we are unlikely to see further price appreciation through the end of the year. In fact, we are already seeing gold sell off over the last two weeks and I think that could continue for the rest of 2025.
In that scenario, Bizyugo points out the bitcoin mania started in 2020 when gold peaked.
There is no guarantee we will see a repeat of 2020, but the macro environment is setting us up almost perfectly. I would be surprised if bitcoin didn’t run into the end of the year. And stocks will be side-by-side the digital currency.
The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq are all at record highs. Things in motion stay in motion. And I am guessing the party is just getting started.
Hope everyone has a great start to your week. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.
In this conversation, we cover Tesla’s robo-taxis, inflation, interest rates, and the U.S.–China trade dynamic. Jordi also shares how he’s positioning his portfolio, and what Bitcoin, gold, and market psychology reveal about where investors are headed next.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-10-24 20:53:58
To investors,
Today’s letter features a guest post from Phil Rosen, who writes the industry-leading data newsletter Opening Bell Daily. Join 185,000+ investors and subscribe free here.
As fashionable as it’s become to talk of an AI-fueled bubble, the data suggest markets are nowhere near the excesses of past manias.
Valuations for today’s biggest tech companies remain far below dot-com extremes, even if they now make up more than one-third of the S&P 500.
The chart below tells the story.
Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft currently trade around 30x forward earnings while generating record cash flows and profitability. Google looks even cheaper.
By comparison, Cisco and Oracle each traded above 120x earnings at the height of the internet era, and Microsoft’s multiple was roughly double its current level despite being a far smaller, less profitable company.
That gap matters.
The mega-caps driving this cycle are producing hundreds of billions in annual free cash flow.
Unlike the profitless leaders of the dot-com era, today’s companies command fortress balance sheets and contribute meaningfully to real economic growth.
It’s one thing to predict winners and losers of the AI race. That’s true of any disruptive technology. But calling the entire market a “bubble” is intellectually lazy.
If anything, the fact that everyone’s talking about it is reason to think we aren’t in one.
To be sure, this doesn’t mean there aren’t valid concerns about the circular nature of AI spending, rising government debt and currency debasement, geopolitical uncertainty or the potential fallout of a regional bank crisis.
Yet market history still points to higher asset prices ahead.
Dating back to 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a 4.2% return in the fourth quarter — nearly double any other quarter. Not only that, but the S&P 500 has finished positive in the final three months of the year about 80% of the time.
That seasonality lines up well with the macro outlook, too. Ed Yardeni, a veteran strategist and founder of Yardeni Research, told clients last week that asset prices will likely keep climbing given the underlying strength of the economy.
Yardeni was among the few Wall Street commentators who didn’t buy into the recession chatter earlier this year. Pair his latest assessment with an AI boom that’s still accelerating and fears of a bubble seem overblown.
“Corrections tend to occur when investors fear a recession that doesn’t happen,” Yardeni said. “Bear markets tend to be caused by recessions. Currently the economy remains resilient, and a recession is unlikely, in our opinion.”
Phil Rosen publishes a high-conviction stock pick every Sunday as part of Opening Bell Daily’s Best Ideas Club. The members-only portfolio has nearly doubled the S&P 500.
🚨 Pomp Letter subscribers can get 10% off a Best Ideas membership for the next 24 hours.
Hope everyone has a great end to your week. I’ll talk to you on Monday.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
I’ll be joining a webinar with the Simple Mining Team on October 30th at 2pm ET. We’ll cover Macroeconomics and the mining industry. There will also be a Q/A at the end.
It’s FREE for Pomp Letter subscribers. Sign up here: https://events.simplemining.io/en-us/bitcoin-mining-masterclass
Tom Lee is the Co-Founder at Fundstrat, CIO of Fundstrat Capital, and Chairman of BitMine.
In this episode, we dive into whether AI is a bubble, why this may be the most hated stock market rally in history, and how misleading economic data shapes investor sentiment. Tom also shares his latest views on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and why innovation in crypto markets is starting to outpace traditional finance.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Zkverify - A modular blockchain dedicated to efficiently verifying zk proofs across diverse blockchain stacks.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-10-23 21:40:33
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To investors,
The United States of America is the first to do a lot of things. We were the first to write and ratify a Constitution. We were first to put a human in space. We were the first to land on the moon. We were the first to create a commercial nuclear power plant. We were the first to ratify important amendments on human rights like free speech and due process.
And this week America added a new “first” to our resume. The US national debt just crossed $38 trillion, which makes us the first country in human history to have accumulated this much debt.
Adam Kobeissi writes “Total US debt officially crosses above $38 trillion for the first time in history. This marks a +$500 BILLION jump this month, or +$23 billion per day.”
Give yourself a round of applause everyone.
Oh wait, this isn’t a milestone we should be celebrating. In fact, we should be appalled that our country’s leadership has lacked the financial discipline to avoid this scenario.
A big driver of the catastrophic destiny we have been pre-ordained to is our addiction to money printing. Jesse Myers writes “The money printer hasn’t run this hot since COVID. Global M2 money supply now ~$137 trillion. It was $129 trillion just 6 months ago.”
Lawrence Lepard points out “12% annualized growth rate in global M2. Far cry from the Fed’s 2% target and they haven’t really even turned on the printer yet.”
I don’t see the national debt problem going away in my lifetime. This means the currency will be debased to avoid default, so our politicians on both sides of the aisle are essentially sticking our children with the bill.
It is a horrible, no good situation. The only thing I know to do is opt-out of the broken system with some portion of my economic value. The higher the national debt goes, the higher bitcoin will go. And it doesn’t appear either of them will stop any time soon.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC. In this episode, we unpack why Bitcoin isn’t the bubble — it’s the pin.
Jeff breaks down the rotation from gold into Bitcoin, how whales are contributing spot BTC to ETFs, and what Coinbase’s acquisition of Echo signals for both retail and institutional investors.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-10-23 00:16:20
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To investors,
The finance industry runs on economic data. Investors around the world consume various data points, draw conclusions from the data, and make capital allocation decisions based on that data.
But what if the data being consumed by investors is inaccurate? What if the data is politically biased?
It would essentially guarantee misguided investment decisions are being made.
Bad inputs lead to bad outputs. You can’t make good decisions if you are basing those decisions on inaccurate or biased data.
This brings us to a bombshell discovery of provably false and politically biased data by Fundstrat and Tom Lee. In a recent report to clients, Fundstrat pointed out how the University of Michigan consumer survey has become completely unreliable due to a sharp rise in political bias.
Before I cover that bias and inaccuracy, let me explain the University of Michigan survey. The survey is described as “a monthly survey that measures American consumers’ attitudes toward the economy, personal finances, and their readiness to spend. Considered a leading economic indicator, the survey, which has been conducted since 1946, uses a minimum of 500 phone interviews and provides insights into consumer optimism or pessimism. The results are used to predict economic trends, including consumer spending and the overall health of the economy.”
Now lets go back to the political bias and inaccuracies. We have known for awhile there are differences in political affiliations when it comes to inflation expectations. Fundstrat shows that here:
Democrats expect inflation to be 5.3% a year from now, while Republicans believe it will be 1.5%. Of course, the truth is likely somewhere in-between. But this political difference is not a problem because it is clear, transparent, and easily understood. You can summarize the difference as politics breaking the economic brains of those being surveyed.
Is it dumb? Of course. Would I accuse the University of Michigan of tipping the scales in any way? No, not at all.
But Fundstrat takes their analysis a step further. They show that the University of Michigan survey has been corrupted over the last two years. They used to survey Republicans and Democrats on a 50/50 basis for years, but there was an explicit change in early 2024.
The University of Michigan survey has shifted left on the political aisle. Rather than 50/50 survey pool, the surveyed group is now 65% Democrats and the trend is only getting worse. You can see in the chart how absurd the change has been.
So what is the big deal?
If I am being nice, the University of Michigan has suddenly screwed up their data collection methodologies. Frankly, I find that hard to believe given how well they stayed unbiased for years. If I put on my conspiratorial hat, we need to ask why University of Michigan is manipulating the data and putting their fingers on the scale?
I will leave it to each of you to decide whether you think the data issues are intentional or not.
And to provide the most robust analysis possible, here is a 4-minute clip of Tom Lee talking with me about this ridiculous issue:
The economic data is corrupted. It is politicaly biased. If you are counting on that data to make investment decisions, it is going to be very hard to make good investment decisions moving forward.
I am looking at ways to address this issue for myself and our investing activities. As I find solutions, I will share them with all of you.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Anthony and John Pompliano discuss everything happening across the markets — bitcoin, gold, stocks, the Fed, and where things could be headed next.
Are we going up or down? Should investors be worried or getting excited? And why retail investors might actually have an edge over institutions right now.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)
Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.
easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.