2025-09-11 21:36:39
To investors,
Retail investors just got a massive win last night. Their activism campaign to enact change at Opendoor ($OPEN) was completed with the naming of a new CEO and two new board members.
For context, Opendoor went public via a SPAC in December 2020. The company saw its stock price decline down to $0.51 per share earlier this year. The negative performance can be attributed to a confluence of factors, including a tough interest rate environment, a revolving door of talent, and a lack of interest from investors.
But a relatively unknown hedge fund manager, Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital, came out with a price target of $82 per share in July. Yes, you heard that right. Eric Jackson called for a nearly 160x appreciation in the stock over the next few years.
This sounded insane at first. How the hell could that be a real thing someone could predict? But then retail investors started looking into the company. That diligence made it obvious the company was significantly undervalued. They were trading at a market cap of a few hundred million dollars, yet the company was doing billions in revenue, had recently turned a profit, and was holding a ton of real estate on their balance sheet.
So retail investors started buying the stock.
But retail wasn’t just buying the stock. They began bombarding the company with pressure to improve the business. Within weeks, the existing CEO had stepped down. The remaining management team committed to not sell any of their stock. And the interim leader of Opendoor personally purchased equity in the stock market.
Not bad for a loose group of random investors who were individually acting in their own self-interest, right?
Most activist investors would have been satisfied to get this much done in such a short period of time. Retail investors weren’t satisfied there though.
The pressure continued. They wanted a new CEO who understood artificial intelligence. They wanted Opendoor co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu back on the board of directors. And the retail investors were not going to rest until they got what they wanted.
Hundreds of tweets per day. Some nice, some not so nice. Just a relentless campaign to effect change at a business that these retail investors saw potential opportunity in.
Last night, the retail activism campaign became one of the most successful activism campaigns in recent history. Opendoor announced they have hired Kaz Nejatian, the COO of Shopify, to be the company’s next CEO. This is a very big win for Opendoor.
Kaz has been instrumental in building Shopify into one of the most disruptive technology companies in the world. He understands product, he understands technology, and he understands the importance of operating a lean, profitable business.
Opendoor also announced that Keith Rabois and Eric Wu would be re-joining the board of directors as well. Two more big wins. Keith and Eric are some of the world’s best entrepreneurs and investors. They bring the founder mentality and energy back to a company that desperately needs it.
So, to recap, retail activist have been able to effect significant change at Opendoor in approximately 60 days. They got the CEO to step down, they stopped management from dumping their stock, they helped find a killer new CEO, and they got their preferred directors into two of the board seats.
What an insane accomplishment in such a short period of time.
Again, this is probably the most successful activism campaign in recent history. It speaks volumes about the power of the retail movement. People can hate it. They can mock it. They can even try to fight it. But the retail investment crowd is a powerful force that is not going anywhere.
Financial markets have been changed forever. These individuals have real capital. They have access to information. And they are now emboldened to make their voice heard. We probably don’t fully understand the impact of this development, but it is important to keep watching.
Retail investors are going to become a larger part of the market. They are going to get better at what they are doing. Companies will have to come up with a retail investor strategy. If they don’t, the CEOs of these companies risk being the next executive under pressure from a group of investors who now have the track record of getting results.
Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Ric Edelman is the Founder of Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, and he is a New York Times #1 best seller of 13 different books.
In this conversation we talk about why financial advisors are finally getting excited about bitcoin, conversations they are having with their clients, the death of 60/40, gold, currency debasement, and why Ric has recommended having 10-40% exposure to bitcoin.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-10 20:36:42
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To investors,
The general consensus across markets is the Fed will cut interest rates in September, which will drive bitcoin and other assets higher. Cut rates and bitcoin flies to the moon, right? Well, at least that is what everyone is saying on the internet.
But history tells a much more complicated story.
Binance Research just published a new study that shows the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting actions are not, by themselves, a reliable standalone indicator for Bitcoin's price movements.
Remember, data doesn’t care about your feelings or opinions. The numbers simply are what they are.
And Binance Research went deep into the data. They show that since Bitcoin entered the mainstream in 2014, the U.S. has experienced three major rate cut cycles. The study focuses only on the rate cut cycles of 2019 and 2024, because the 2020 rate cuts were driven by a one-off global pandemic.
So what happened in 2019 when interest rates were cut?
Bitcoin displayed a classic buy the rumor, sell the news pattern. In the months leading up to the rate cut, Bitcoin's price surged from approximately $4,000 to $13,000. However, once the cuts were actually implemented, the price declined.
2024’s interest rate cut was a little less clear. The significant price increase of bitcoin following the rate cut coincided closely with shifts in the U.S. election landscape, making it difficult to solely attribute the price movement to the rate cut itself.
So 2019 we saw bitcoin go down in price after a rate cut and 2024 brought a more difficult picture of what drove bitcoin’s price higher.
Binance Research then conducted two quantitative analyses, both of which indicate a lack of a stable and significant correlation between interest rates and Bitcoin's price.
The first compared the year-over-year change in the U.S. Federal Funds Rate with the year-over-year change in Bitcoin's price. This analysis revealed no obvious negative correlation.
The second analysis used interest rate futures market data to measure market expectations for future rate changes and analyzed their six-month correlation with Bitcoin's price. Again, The results show an extremely unstable relationship between these two, indicating that market expectations for rate changes can explain almost none of the linear volatility in Bitcoin's price.
So if interest rates aren’t driving bitcoin’s price, what is?
Well Binance Research shows that liquidity is the key to everything. They write “Historical data from a key indicator—the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)—shows a relatively clear negative correlation between the index's tightness and Bitcoin price volatility. The index has recently shown an upward turn, which warrants market vigilance.”
So while everyone is expecting an interest rate cut in September, don’t hold your breath for it to be the reason bitcoin goes up in price.
I am a bitcoiner. I think bitcoin is going higher. But after this Binance Research data, I’ll be watching all of this much more closely.
Hope you have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Ric Edelman is the Founder of Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals, and he is a New York Times #1 best seller of 13 different books.
In this conversation we talk about why financial advisors are finally getting excited about bitcoin, conversations they are having with their clients, the death of 60/40, gold, currency debasement, and why Ric has recommended having 10-40% exposure to bitcoin.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-09 22:24:07
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To investors,
It is important you avoid getting lulled to sleep in financial markets. A great example of where I potentially see this happening right now is with bitcoin. The digital asset is down 3% over the last month and only up 20% since the start of the year. Not exactly the eye-popping return numbers that energized an entire generation that was seeking asymmetric returns.
But this lack of significant appreciation over the last 8 months doesn’t mean we can expect the same thing to continue through the rest of the year. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee was on CNBC yesterday and explained why he thinks bitcoin could double by Christmas:
Do I think bitcoin will double by the end of the year? I have no clue. Bitcoin has made significant moves in the past, so it wouldn’t be the first time, but increasing the total market cap by approximately $2 trillion in around 100 days would be breathtaking to watch.
Regardless of the price movement, Tom’s analysis of why bitcoin is poised to move higher is dead on. Bitcoin remains the most sensitive macro asset to global liquidity conditions. And if the Fed is going to cut interest rates in September, we should expect bitcoin to increase in value in response.
But bitcoin is not the only asset that Wall Street is paying attention to. This may not be what bitcoiners want to hear, but we have to be realistic about the facts of the market. In the last month, while bitcoin was down slightly, Ethereum has been up nearly 10% and Solana has been up more than 20%.
This is a direct result of Wall Street broadening their interest into more crypto assets. We have seen the launch of Ether ETFs, along with the announcement of many altcoin digital asset treasury companies.
Tom Lee announced Bitmine, which is a treasury company focused on Ethereum. Not only is he buying the asset and staking it, but Bitmine made an investment in a company called Eightco Holdings ($OCTO) yesterday. Why did they do that? Well, Eightco Holdings is becoming a treasury company for Worldcoin, which is built on top of Ethereum.
So now you have companies that are investing in the ecosystems of these altcoins. And before you argue how dumb this strategy is, you should know that Eightco Holdings saw an approximately 30x increase in their share price in a single day off the announcement. I don’t know if Nasdaq has ever seen a company go from $1.72 to over $72 a share in one trading session, but thats what happened yesterday.
Just insane.
This is not only happening in the Ethereum ecosystem either. We are seeing Sol Strategies, a publicly traded Canadian company dedicated to building Solana infrastructure, cross-list and start trading on Nasdaq this morning. The company will trade under the ticker $STKE, which stands for “stake.”
I have been an advisor to the company and CEO Leah Wald for awhile, so I have seen how that company in particular has been built. They own a bunch of SOL on their balance sheet, they stake their balance sheet assets, and then they own a number of validators that allow them to monetize other people’s SOL that is being staked.
In a similar vein, we saw the announcement of a new Solana-focused treasury company through Forward Industries Inc. The company is backed by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin. Kyle Samani is joining as Chairman of the board. This effort has raised more than $1.6 billion in cash and stablecoins to execute the strategy.
That doesn’t happen unless the opportunity is clear from the market.
If you thought Wall Street loved companies holding altcoins, just wait till they realize these companies can provide cash-flow and yield. Again, it doesn’t matter what individual investors believe, you have to understand what the broader financial market is dying for — yield.
And we have also seen asset management firms like Coinshares announce a deal to go public via SPAC. They are doing it at more than $1 billion valuation too. Cash-flow from crypto-related companies is all the rage right now.
So this brings me back to the broader theme playing out. Crypto is assaulting Wall Street. Bitcoin was first through the door. It has always been the king and it will remain the king in my opinion. But Wall Street is starting to broaden their horizons.
They don’t care about any particular coins. They want returns. And if that brings them to altcoins, yield, or cash-flow companies, so be it. They are trying to fulfill their mandate to capture alpha and it seems the market has collectively decided crypto-related opportunities is one of the best places to look.
Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Mel Mattison is an investor, author, and a former fintech executive.
In this conversation we talk about the role of the Federal Reserve, why they historically have not been independent, who is to blame for current debasement, why gold and bitcoin are so important, and what Mel would do if he was Fed chair.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
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2025-09-08 21:11:00
To investors,
It seems many people are freaked out over the weak jobs report from last week, but I don’t think people quite understand what is happening right now. We are living through one of the most historic moments in technology history.
You may think that sounds like hyperbole, but I brought cold, hard facts to prove it.
Take a look at this chart from Aahan Menon — tech sector output is skyrocketing at the same time that tech sector employment is contracting.
Quite literally, we have never seen this happen at any point over the last 60+ years. Companies are becoming more productive, but with less people. It is the textbook definition of efficiency.
Now you may ask “how is this happening?”
Don’t worry, I got you covered. Let’s use Coinbase as the first example. CEO Brian Armstrong recently wrote:
“Approximately 40% of daily code written at Coinbase is AI-generated. I want to get it to greater than 50% by October. Obviously it needs to be reviewed and understood, and not all areas of the business can use AI-generated code. But we should be using it responsibly as much as we possibly can.”
Yup, he said 40% of daily code written at the company is being done by artificial intelligence. And he isn’t the only one. Eight Sleep CEO Matteo Franceschetti wrote in response:
“48% of the code from our data team is now AI-generated—and that share keeps climbing every week. Beyond engineering, teams across the company are rapidly adopting tools like Devin, making AI adoption our fastest-growing company-wide metric.”
These are public and private companies. They are software and hardware. One is worth hundreds of millions. The other is worth tens of billions. Each is publicly confirming that nearly half of the code written is coming from artificial intelligence.
No wonder we are seeing productivity spike upwards, while employment is falling. So this begs the question, “who is losing their job?”
The answer is very clear — the number of junior roles are declining and the number of senior roles are increasing. Alex Cheema shows junior roles are down 23%. Senior roles are up 14%.
This means the best engineers, which are usually the most senior, are the big winners from the AI revolution. That is an important data point because it proves that AI is making one group more productive at the expense of the less experienced group.
So open your eyes and ears. These companies are showing us how they are doing it. Too many people refuse to believe them. Eventually that will have to change.
This brings me to the broader US economy outside of the tech sector. Our friends at Boring Biz highlighted a recent report from Moody’s that said “33% of states in the U.S. are already in recession territory.”
It looks like Texas, California, Florida, New York and North Carolina are responsible for majority of the economic growth happening right now. Those also happen to be the states with significant tech activity, including Silicon Valley, Austin, Miami, El Segundo, the Research Triangle Park, and Silicon Alley.
It makes sense the economic growth is happening in these areas. But the fact we are not seeing growth in other states is less than ideal.
Add in the fact that the S&P 500’s Price-to-Book Value is now higher than the 2000 Dot Com Bubble and you already know the bears are out in full force screeching about the impending catastrophe in financial markets.
But before you throw up your hands and say the bears are right, Sam Badawi reminds us we have had three bear markets in the last five years.
And if that didn’t make you feel good, the Federal Reserve is about to juice the market with an interest rate cut too. They haven’t been the only ones this year.
“The Fed is about to join the global rate cut cycle: There have now been 88 rate cuts worldwide year-to-date, the most since 2020. This puts 2025 on track for the 3rd-fastest global cutting cycle on record, according to Bank of America.”
So my best advice is to stop listening to all the bears. They keep predicting a recession, yet the odds on Polymarket have fallen from 65% in May to only 8% today.
A big reason for these declining odds is the underlying business fundamentals are getting better. Companies are reporting record revenue, profits, and growth. These businesses are becoming more efficient and more productive, so they should be worth more money. And that is exactly what you are seeing in the stock market.
And you can’t have a recession if companies are getting stronger. So good luck to the pessimists out there. I hope they don’t actually believe all the nonsense they are spewing.
Have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.
In this conversation we talk about the bad jobs report, what will happen with inflation and the fed, when bitcoin will break out, artificial intelligence, Tesla, and why asset prices will keep going higher.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-05 21:40:49
To investors,
The jobs report this morning is going to send shockwaves throughout the market. We saw growth slow to an extraordinarily low 22,000 payroll additions in the month of August.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, the June jobs revision brought the June jobs number negative. Heather Long points out the new data shows the US economy lost 13,000 jobs in June, which is the first negative month since December 2020.
She goes on to say “there's barely been any job growth in the past 4 months. Almost all the jobs added are in healthcare. Without healthcare, job growth would be NEGATIVE in the past few months.”
Not good.
Joey Politano writes “US blue-collar job growth has completely stagnated, hitting the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic—manufacturing is currently losing jobs at a rapid pace, and growth in construction/transportation has slowed to a crawl.”
Now interestingly, white collar jobs within US manufacturing are actually growing, which is not exactly what you would expect given the public narrative right now.
But manufacturing is not the only place we are seeing the issues. Heather Long shows the job slowdown is across the economy. In the last 3 months, mining has lost 13,000 jobs, construction is down 10,000 jobs, business professionals are down a whopping 51,000 jobs, and the federal government has lost 34,000 jobs. Finance, which is largely thought to be immune to most economic policies, has also seen zero job growth over the last 90 days.
So what is going on here? Well, this brings us back to what I have been talking about all year. The US economy is getting smacked by a massive deflationary force. The combination of tariffs and artificial intelligence are a powerful cocktail that is driving significant changes in the economy.
This is why it has been so dangerous for the Federal Reserve to continue keeping interest rates at elevated levels. Their refusal to cut rates, even though the data told them to do it, has put them behind the curve once again.
Today’s job report essentially guarantees we will get a rate cut in September. It also drastically increases the odds we will see multiple rate cuts through the end of 2025.
The US economy is sprinting into a big headwind. We need the stimulus to generate the right kind of economic activity. Without it, the headwind will take its toll and make things much harder than they need to be.
As you all know, I am not a big fan of human-led monetary policy. But if we are going to use it, then the humans at the Fed should at least implement the monetary policy in a consistent, predictable way. They haven’t been doing that. Their critics claim it is for political reasons. Their supporters claim it is because tariffs were supposed to be inflationary.
Regardless of the reason, the Fed has made a big mistake and must do their best to correct the issue. I believe we should see a large interest rate cut in September. A small 25 basis point cut is unlikely to do enough to put a dent in the problem.
We should get a 50 basis point cut at a minimum and there is a serious argument for the cut to be 75-100 basis points. Now those are big numbers. The market would have a hard time swallowing such a bold move, but sometimes you have to do unpopular things in order to get the Federal Reserve back on track.
They are behind the curve. Our central bankers have completely miscalculated the impact of tariffs, and they seem to have misunderstood how pervasive artificial intelligence would be, so they should scramble to use their toolbox to get interest rates lower sooner rather than later.
This brings me to asset prices. Most assets are already trading at or near all-time high prices. If we get a large interest rate cut in September, asset prices will go much higher. The Fed can’t worry about that though. They have a labor problem on their hands. Truflation is showing inflation is under 2% right now.
That is a 50% reduction in inflation since the start of the year. The Fed should have been cutting rates. They can’t go back in time, but they can cut rates aggressively through the end of the year. And investors who are exposed to stocks, bitcoin, and gold will do well.
Now we all sit and wait to see what Jerome Powell and his crew decides to do in light of the terrible, no good jobs report from this morning.
Hope you all have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to you on Monday.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC.
In this conversation we talk about what separates smart investors from those who just follow ideology, how that mindset shift can make you better in the market, the idea of a bitcoin treasury company, and how businesses could stack more bitcoin without constantly raising new capital.
Enjoy!
Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.
Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs
Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.
Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com
Xapo Bank: Fully licensed bank that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.9% interest in BTC. Spend globally with a debit card that gives 1% cashback in BTC. Borrow up to $1M instantly with Bitcoin-backed loans.
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.
Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.
BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.
Polkadot is a scalable, secure, and decentralized blockchain technology aimed at creating Web3. Innovation leader, making it a preferred choice for big names.
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren't finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
2025-09-04 22:27:41
To investors,
Bitcoin adoption happened in a special way. Most technology is first used by militaries and nation states, then corporations adopt it, and finally the average person is given access to the technology. This happened with the internet, phones, computers, and many other innovations of the last century.
But bitcoin has been different.
The people adopted bitcoin first. Nation states thought about banning it. Corporations thought it was too risky. It was the average person who did the work to understand the asset, realize the market opportunity, and take the leap of faith to buy and hold the world’s first decentralized digital currency.
And the people have been rewarded well for taking that risk.
Now corporations are working hard to catch up. Bitcoin platform River just put out a great report showing how large a percentage of bitcoin purchases now come from companies, rather than individuals.
Sam Baker and Vincent Lee write “businesses have emerged as the primary force behind bitcoin's ongoing bull market. In the first eight months of 2025, bitcoin inflows onto business balance sheets have already exceeded the total for all of 2024 by $12.5 billion.”
A big reason for this significant increase in accumulation from businesses has been the recent rise of publicly-traded bitcoin treasury companies. The report says these treasury companies account “for 76% of all business purchases since January 2024 and 60% of publicly reported business holdings.”
Ever since Microstrategy became the first public company to hold bitcoin on it’s balance sheet, we have seen an explosion of other companies follow. It is estimated there are more than 50 other public companies who hold at least 10 bitcoin each.
And these companies are not just in the United States. In fact, the bitcoin treasury phenomenon has become a global game almost overnight. There are public companies in nearly every market who continue to convert their local currency into digital sound money.
So it is obvious that these treasury companies are a big reason for the continued bitcoin bull market. But it is important to remember that although these companies are buying up a lot of bitcoin, they are still slightly behind funds and ETFs which are the largest category buyer of bitcoin so far this year.
It is healthy to have various types of buyers in a bull market, so it is good to see the demand is coming from funds, ETFs, treasury companies, private businesses, and individuals alike.
But lets go back to the idea of companies holding bitcoin for a second. Most companies are never going to put majority of their balance sheet into bitcoin. At least not in the short-term. So a much more realistic scenario is for companies to put 1% of their balance sheet into the digital asset.
1% may not sound like a lot, but look at the difference a 1% allocation would have made for Microsoft, Google, and Apple since 2020.
Each of these companies has seen their balance sheet’s purchasing power erode from $14 billion to $21 billion since 2020. Think about how crazy that is. The silent tax of inflation has stolen $14+ billion of shareholder value in half a decade. Just insane.
If these same companies had allocated only 1% of their treasury to bitcoin in 2020, they each would have seen a treasury gain of $14 billion to $29 billion in that same half decade. We are talking about a $25 billion swing or more in each one of these companies.
And the risk they would have had to take was only a 1% allocation. Seems like a no brainer in hindsight.
This brings me to my last point, which is what companies are actually doing in terms of their allocation percentage. “River's data shows that many businesses are allocating far more than a hypothetical 1% to bitcoin. Businesses using River allocate an average of 22% of their net income, according to a July 2025 survey. The median allocation is 10%.”
So there you have it. An allocation as little as 1% would have had a profound impact on most company’s balance sheet since 2020, but the average allocation has been 22% of net income and the median allocation has been 10%.
Something tells me those percentages will increase over time.
If you want to read the full River report, you can check it out by clicking here.
Hope everyone has a great day. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
🚨 READER NOTE: Saquon Barkley is the best running back in the NFL. He is also one of the best technology investors over the last few years.
Saquon has amassed a portfolio including Anthropic (currently valued at $183 billion), Ramp ($22.5 billion), Anduril ($14 billion), Cognition ($9.8 billion), Neuralink ($9 billion), Strike (~$1 billion), and Polymarket (~$1 billion). He’s also a limited partner in funds including Founders Fund, Thrive Capital, Silver Point Capital, and Multicoin Capital.
My wife, Polina Pompliano, spent months interviewing Saquon, his team, the founders in his portfolio, and those who know Saquon best. She wrote the definitive profile on the running back turned tech investor.
Highly recommend reading the piece today.
Darius Dale is the Founder & CEO of 42Macro.
In this conversation we talk about the Federal Reserve, inflation expectations, what is going on with Lisa Cook, how to fix the housing market, and how the market could play out the rest of the year.
Enjoy!
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