2026-01-09 21:49:14
🌟 Happy 2026! There’s never been a better time to join our premium newsletter and invest in yourself. It’s designed to make you a better founder, investor, and technologist. Members get access to the strategies, tactics, and wisdom of exceptional investors and founders. Today’s piece is a subscriber-only edition.
Friends,
The world is not waiting to start the year.
In just over a week, we have seen that the world of 2026 will not be the same as that of 2025. Trump’s actions in Venezuela are the most naked illustration of this fact, revealing the changing nature of power and shifts in spheres of relative influence.
Technology is not immune to such developments, and, indeed, is a key input. Even with January just getting its footing, our sector is in motion: in a span of just a few weeks, Jensen Huang struck a $20 billion deal for Groq’s talent and IP, revealed Nvidia’s upcoming Rubin architecture, and saw China order its domestic companies to pause purchases of H200 chips. Meanwhile, DeepSeek released research rethinking AI training, ChatGPT launched a dedicated health product, Meta is attempting to purchase Chinese-founded startup Manus, and Anthropic is raising $10 billion at a $350 billion valuation.
All of this is happening against the backdrop of growing unease about AI valuations and the possibility that we are in the midst of a rapidly inflating bubble primed to burst.
As a reminder: it is January 9th.
To try and grasp what (else) 2026 might have in store, particularly with regard to tech and venture capital, I reached out to a collection of more than 45 elite investors and thinkers. I asked each of these people to answer the question: What company, market, or trend do you think is most worth paying attention to in 2026?
Below, you will find their answers, organized into seven themes. It includes entries from legends like Reid Hoffman, Kirsten Green, Gili Raanan, and Aydin Senkut, as well as those I consider the sharpest thinkers from the next generation. It is, in a sense, a collection of futures. A cadre of possible paths that may or may not unfurl. In big and little ways, I hope that they make you a little more aware of what may happen and where opportunities might lie.
As was the case with last year’s edition, I compiled this piece with the express goal of creating something that more than justifies the cost of The Generalist’s premium subscription on its basis alone. Given the insights I’ve gleaned from it already, I believe we’ve achieved that for anyone who works in venture capital, actively angel invests, or is considering starting a company. I suspect it will also be of great use to operators who want to understand how their respective industries could develop.
Here’s what to expect:
The robotics company helping with data center buildouts
A voice AI company poised to come out of stealth
The African fintech following Nubank’s trajectory
Where China is poised to outcompete America
A potential landmark in nuclear energy
An AI myth gets exposed
The startups poised to win in Latin America
The under-the-radar search startup used by Cursor
To set yourself up for the best possible 2026, join our premium subscription for just $22/month today. It’s designed to make you a radically better investor for a teeny fraction of the cost of a traditional investing intelligence service.
Again, my hope and goal is that this piece alone repays the cost of a year’s subscription.
PS. You know this already, but for the avoidance of doubt: this is not investment advice. This is intended to surface new ideas and guide you toward interesting topics. Most submissions focus on private companies, but please heed this, particularly for those that highlight a crypto project with a public token. These tend to be hyper-volatile assets. You should always make investment decisions based on your own research.
AI’s most impressive feats have typically occurred on screens. That may be changing. Robots are learning by watching humans, excavators are moving dirt without drivers, and the robotics sector is splitting into two worlds: one of hype, another of quiet deployment.
2025-12-18 22:22:49
Friends,
How often do you think about the Mongolian Empire?
For Mercury CEO, Immad Akhund, the answer seems to be “surprisingly often.” For our final interview of the year, I asked the founder of one of my very favorite products to share his latest obsessions, contrarian opinions, and favorite reads.
As well as outlining the h…
2025-12-12 00:20:24
Friends,
Perhaps no one experienced the dotcom boom and bust quite as viscerally as Steve Case. The founder of Revolution began the decade as an executive at a small software company called Quantum Link, and ended it as the CEO of a behemoth: AOL.
It is hard to overstate just how important a company AOL was at the start of the millennium. Unless you were already of working age and minded towards tech and business, there’s a good chance you haven’t calibrated its size appropriately. AOL was a giant. Between its IPO in 1992 and the start of the new millennium, its stock appreciated approximately 80,000%, reaching a peak of $222 billion in December 1999. By that point, it had eclipsed many of the business world’s biggest companies, surpassing Disney, IBM, McDonald’s, and Berkshire Hathaway. At the time, AOL was larger than Boeing and General Motors combined.
It was also wildly significant and influential, responsible for opening the internet up to a new generation of users and making it fun to use. The AOL of that era pioneered many of the user experiences and behaviors that make up the modern web, from screen names to instant messaging.
In January 2000, AOL looked set for another decade of dominance. On the tenth of that month, it announced a planned merger with Time Warner. Remarkably, AOL was the senior partner, receiving 55% of the combined $350 billion entity. Again, the scale of the deal is hard to comprehend unless you lived it. At the headline valuation, AOL Time Warner became the fourth largest company on the planet – a figure greater than “the output of Russia or the Netherlands.”
What came after is the subject of much study and coverage. The market crashed, the merger failed, and not long after, Case stepped down as AOL CEO. By 2005, Case publicly argued in favor of the two companies splitting, and at the end of the decade, that came to fruition. Though there were strong strategic merits to an AOL-Time Warner union, it proved to be a marriage that suited neither party.
It seems as if we are in yet another torrid cycle and potentially one of greater magnitude than that which Case surfed. A recent analyst report argued that the current AI bubble is 17x greater than its dotcom corollary, and 4x larger than the 2008 financial crisis. (We can hope it will be more productive than the financial crash, at least.)
A bubble is a strange environment in which to live. It is an even stranger one in which to build a business. How do you keep your feet on the ground when the world beneath is rushing past at a thousand miles an hour? How can you hold fast to reality when wide-eyed investors, gasping for breath, paint ever more fantastical futures in front of you and shove your pockets full of cash? Where is the boundary? Is there really such a thing as a horizon?
We believe that “this time is different,” and there is truth in that. We do not live in a perfectly iterated game. The board has changed, fresh players have stepped onto it, and new moves are always being invented. But it is more naive to pretend the past has nothing to teach us. In fundamental ways, today’s founders face the same set of challenges as their late 90s forerunners. How do you build a team at warp speed? Is it possible to scale a culture when you’re growing exponentially? How can you make smart acquisitions and avoid the most common missteps? What role should partnerships and business development play when you’re forging a new category?
As I thought about these questions, I realized that perhaps no one is better suited to speak from experience than Steve Case himself. And so, I asked him to reflect on his journey at AOL, the similarities and differences between that era and ours, and the lessons founders should heed. We also discuss what it was like to compete head-to-head against Bill Gates, the strategic necessity that drove the Time Warner deal, and the similarities between Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs.
What gets measured gets managed.
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To start, I’d love to connect the two eras we’re talking about and the lessons we might take from them. How much does the current AI wave remind you of the dotcom bubble?
It has some similarities, but some differences, too.
Like the internet, AI has been many years in the making. When you look at AI, some of the core technologies can be traced back to something like 70 years ago. This is not a new idea. It just took that time for it to become a mainstream consumer phenomenon. Obviously, over the last ten to twenty years, a lot of companies have integrated AI. Most of the apps we use on our phones rely on AI to some extent. The difference is that nobody called it AI. But it was driving recommendation engines and so on; it was just more of a back-end, invisible thing. It only became an in-your-face visible technology with the success of ChatGPT.
That timing dynamic reminds me of the dotcom era. The gold rush mentality does too. People feel that this is the next big thing, and they don’t want to miss out, which leads to investors pouring a lot of money into companies. A few of those will be wildly successful, many will be OK, and a good number will also probably end up hitting the wall and going out of business, which is what happened with the internet.
Clearly, AI as a core technology and platform is going to have a comparable or greater impact to the internet. It has the ability to transform industries and society in very fundamental ways, but there will be a mix of successes and failures.
A final point I’d make is about government and policy. What most people don’t appreciate about the internet is that the United States wouldn’t have been the leader it was with respect to that technology were it not for a series of government decisions: first, you have the government’s decision to fund the Defense Department’s ARPANET, which basically became the internet. Next, there was the Justice Department’s decision in 1984 to break up AT&T into seven regional operating companies, which drove communication costs down and made the internet much more affordable. Third, there was the decision by the FCC to mandate open access for the telephone networks so that they had to let AOL and others plug into them. And, finally, in the early 90s, Congress passed a law opening up the internet to consumers and businesses. Up until that point, it had been restricted to government agencies and educational institutions.
It’s easy to forget these things, but if they hadn’t happened, the internet would not have evolved the way it did. In the case of AI, it’s really important that we figure out what that policy overlay should be. How do you make sure that while the technology is being developed, you don’t over-regulate and stifle innovation? Europe has historically made the mistake of focusing too much on what might go wrong and, as a result, stifles what might go right.
At the same time, though, because AI is so ubiquitous already (versus the internet, which grew slowly before mass adoption), some engagement, some policy guardrails are necessary now.
What might some common-sense guidelines look like?
One of the lessons from the internet is that you need to mandate open access. When it comes to AI, I think we need to make sure the big platform companies are essentially required to have open access. We don’t want to create a system that just allows the big companies to dominate; we have to force them to open their networks and keep them open for new companies to participate and innovate.
You had the rare experience of building what was considered the most significant company of its time during a historic bull market. It remains to be seen to what extent AI is a bubble, but I suspect the lessons you learned building AOL during the dotcom boom are deeply relevant for today’s founders.
As a jumping-off point, how did you manage your mental game during that period? AOL went from a relatively small company to one of the most important on the planet in a short period of time. The company must have been changing noticeably almost every day.
Part of my job was to be a shock absorber for the rest of the company. As the CEO, you have to even out the highs and lows for people. When things are going great, remind them about the risk. I used to call that “delegating paranoia.” When things are down in the dumps, remind them of why you have a bright future. There were plenty of moments like that at AOL – we’d be on the cover of a magazine with the headline saying “AOL is going to go under for XYZ reason.” It’s your role to provide that balance so that people can focus on the overall mission.
It probably helped that it took more than a decade for us to get real traction. I joke that AOL was a ten-year-in-the-making overnight success. The time it took us probably gave all of us, including me, more perspective and humility when all of a sudden it was this go-go-go momentum. It helped me not buy into all the positives or all the negatives.
Beyond that, you have to surround yourself with good advisors, including board members. They were helpful in making sure we were taking a step back at the right times and not just focusing on the day-to-day so much that we missed something. You have to learn to look at the company not just as a snapshot but as a movie that’s playing out.
I imagine that one of the biggest challenges of scaling that fast is finding enough great people who understand what you’re building, and creating the right structure to get the best out of them. Although AI founders today can probably get more leverage on people than during the 1990s, great talent is still essential.
What was your approach to recruiting and organizing talent, and how did it evolve with the business?
Well, it definitely evolved. In the early days, when we were just a couple dozen people, it was about surrounding ourselves with true believers. This was before people knew what the internet was, so there weren’t that many people interested in it. We were looking for people who wanted to be a part of the journey and could add value to it.
When headcount got into the hundreds, we started to be a bit more precise in terms of the roles we needed. You start to run searches for roles and look in a more structured, disciplined way.
When we got into the thousands, and things really started accelerating, I realized that as the CEO, I couldn’t be involved in everything. And so I needed to shift my mindset to spend the majority of my time on recruiting. It might not have been 50% of my actual hours, but it was more than 50% of my attention.
A lot of my job in those days was not just promoting AOL but evangelizing the internet. I’d travel a lot and speak at a lot of conferences – Allen&Co in Sun Valley and others. I always had my radar on: Who’s going to be there? Are there people who might be partners in a way that works for us and works for them? Is there anyone I’m really impressed with that I can convince to leave what they’re doing and join us?
Every meeting I was in, every conference I was attending – whatever it was that I was doing – looking for great people was always on my agenda. With the right people and the right focus, anything is possible.
You mentioned that as the company scaled, you felt you couldn’t do everything anymore. The pendulum in tech seems to have swung towards CEOs feeling like they should micro-manage more and have their hands on every part of the business. Why did that feel like the wrong fit for you?
2025-12-09 21:03:49
“Every single good thing happened in my life on the back of some disappointment or failure. Those rejections became rocket fuel.”
— Aydin Senkut
Two decades ago, Aydin Senkut was a first-time fund manager with a thin track record to show prospective backers. LPs didn’t believe a solo GP, especially one without experience at a legacy firm, could build a lasting franchise.
They were wrong. Today, Felicis is a Silicon Valley mainstay on its 10th fund, a $900M vehicle. Across its history, Felicis has backed a slew of winners, including Shopify, Canva, Crusoe, and dozens of other billion-dollar outcomes. Rather than specialize over time, Aydin has remained a true generalist, investing across markets and cycles. In this conversation, we dig into the frameworks, stories, and philosophies that shaped Felicis into what it is — and where Aydin believes the next decade of technology is heading.
We explore:
How growing up in Turkey with entrepreneur parents shaped Aydin’s approach to risk and investing
Lessons from working alongside Larry Page and Sergey Brin during Google’s early days
Why Felicis deliberately chose a generalist strategy when most VCs were specializing
How international experience became a competitive advantage in finding global winners
The mathematical case for portfolio diversification (50-70 companies per fund)
Why valuation concerns are often overblown when revenue growth is exponential
Felicis’s aggressive AI investment strategy and what other investors are missing
The future of robotics and physical AI through companies like Skild AI
Why learning and adapting rapidly is Felicis’s constitutional principle
(00:00) Introduction
(03:09) How Aydin made his way to Silicon Valley
(06:15) What he learned from his entrepreneurial parents
(08:55) Learnings from the early days at Google
(15:05) The childhood roots of his investing philosophy
(16:31) Why rejection became a catalyst for his venture career
(19:28) Strategy behind Felicis’s first $41M fund
(25:44) How his international background became an investing edge
(28:17) How Aydin approaches diversification at scale
(32:08) How he sizes investments based on conviction
(33:15) Generalist vs. specialist investing
(38:23) Why founders are the foundation
(42:48) Why success may look different than expected
(43:46) The Felicis journey
(48:18) Why Felicis is going all in on AI
(54:54) Why entry point matters less than potential
(57:33) How the AI bubble debate misses the point
(59:47) What makes Skild AI a standout company
(01:04:58) The AI bets Felicis missed
(01:07:55) How missing Airbnb and Uber led to backing Adyen
(01:11:20) Final meditations
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aydins
Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder: https://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto-ebook/dp/B0083DJWGO
Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results: https://www.amazon.com/Clear-Thinking-Turning-Ordinary-Extraordinary/dp/0593086112
Larry Page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Page
Sergey Brin: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Brin
Eric Schmidt: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Schmidt
Brian Chesky on X: https://x.com/bchesky
Shane Parrish’s blog: https://fs.blog
Felicis: https://www.felicis.com
Mastering Portfolio Construction: https://www.generalist.com/p/mastering-portfolio-construction
Steve Jobs’s quote on focus: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/629613-people-think-focus-means-saying-yes-to-the-thing-you-ve
Angry Birds: https://www.angrybirds.com
Rovio: https://www.rovio.com
Adyen: https://www.adyen.com
Canva: https://www.canva.com
Shopify: https://www.shopify.com
n8n: https://n8n.io/
Tines: https://www.tines.com
Crusoe: https://www.crusoe.ai
Supabase: https://supabase.com
Skild: https://www.skild.ai
Anthropic: http://anthropic.com
OpenAI: https://openai.com
Mistral: https://mistral.ai
Airbnb: https://www.airbnb.com
I’d love it if you’d subscribe and share the show. Your support makes all the difference as we try to bring more curious minds into the conversation.
Production and marketing by penname.co. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].
2025-12-05 00:19:27
Friends,
This is one of my favorite questions to ask:
If you had the power to assign a book for everyone on Earth to read and understand, what would you choose?
Long-time supporters of The Generalist will know it’s my preferred way to wrap up a Modern Meditations interview or a podcast episode. So, why do I like it so much? Isn’t it just a convoluted way of asking “What’s your favorite book?”
Not quite. (Though that is a pretty great question too, no matter how staid.) There is, I find, something useful about framing the prompt in this way, and asking people not just what books they liked but those they considered deeply important. Plenty of authors can grant us pleasure, but which ones created works that truly merited the world’s attention?
It also opens up the possibility for all kinds of enjoyable subplots. Will someone indulge in the hypothetical chance to promote their own work, thereby locking in a casual 8 billion in new book sales? How might they tilt humanity toward their philosophical or aesthetic preferences? Does it seem utterly unanswerable to them, given the swarm of wonderful books the world contains? Will they reject the premise outright, as a mini-autocracy dressed up as a parlor game? Each of these answers says something, I think, about the way a person reasons.
Over the years, this question has been the source of much joy, intrigue, alpha, and wisdom to me. And so, as we near the end of this year, I took the time to compile every recommendation we’ve received across The Generalist’s written and audio interviews into a single guide, lightly edited for readability. Since it contains no recommendations or musings of my own, I feel I can say with a straight face that it is quite a wonderful document, containing the preferred reads of an eclectic but stunningly accomplished group of people. MacArthur “genius” grantees mingle with multiple Midas List winners, prominent ethical philosophers, legendary entrepreneurs, and extreme biohackers. People who have built new cities sit alongside complexity scientists, a stone’s throw from a computer science legend and former professional poker player. So read on to discover what Alan Kay, Tyler Cowen, Reid Hoffman, David Krakauer, Laura Deming, Bryan Johnson, Katherine Boyle, and others think the world should read.
As you consider how you want to spend your time in 2026, I hope this collection might provide inspiration and open some new avenues for your curiosity to explore.
Two years ago, The Generalist published its case study on Hummingbird. It was the story of a fund that had studiously avoided publicity, while putting together one of the most impressive track records in the asset class, all by focusing obsessively on finding the top 0.1% of founders. It became our most popular piece at the time.
As I shared with readers earlier this year, I became so intrigued by Hummingbird’s psychological approach that I took on a venture partner role. In part, I saw it as a chance to continue studying how the most interesting fund I’d come across functioned from the inside. How exactly did they interact with founders? What questions did they ask? Why? What traits did they look for at an even more granular level?
Since spending more time with the team in this capacity, I’ve been struck by just how deep Hummingbird’s craft goes. (Hopefully, I can share some of these discoveries in a future piece.)
For now, though, an opportunity: Hummingbird opened the application for its analyst program a few weeks ago. It’s exactly the kind of role I would have wanted to discover earlier in my venture career and, based on my experience, a rare one. If you’re interested in learning a differentiated investing lens at one of the best-performing funds in the world, you can apply here.
As you can probably tell from the above, I think it’s a rather good opportunity. Now, onto the piece.
If this is a one-shot opportunity, then I’d probably want to pick a book that has a proven track record for timelessness and universality – in other words, something that I believe could make a lasting impact on the greatest number of readers.
So I think I’d choose Viktor Frankl’s account of his life in a Nazi concentration camp, Man’s Search for Meaning. Originally published in 1946, it’s a book that readers continue to find relevant, decade after decade, because of its emphasis on how, even in circumstances of unimaginable suffering and inhumanity, where despair is a perfectly rational response, we can still find ways to be resilient and resourceful. The key is to maintain hope for the future and a sense of purpose that goes beyond the alleviation of our own suffering and is instead enmeshed in the human connections and relationships that give our lives meaning.
The book I hand out to people is Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor Frankl. Frankl was a Holocaust survivor, and the book doesn’t detail the horrors of what he endured, but it talks about the insight he had into human nature.
There are competing views of what motivates us. There’s the hedonistic view that we pursue pleasure. Then there’s Adler, who thought we pursue power, and that’s where we derive value and meaning in our lives. Frankl developed logotherapy based on the belief that purpose is what drives us. That purpose could be a mission, a family member, or a pursuit. But there’s something that keeps us going.
Frankl had this insight before he went into the concentration camps, but it was honed by his experience there. He saw, for example, that the death rate in the camp increased around Christmas and the New Year. Not that any of the captives were Christian, but it was a remembrance of time with family. People lost hope during those windows and basically gave up on life because they had no reason to live anymore. Frankl has this phrase, “Someone who has a ‘why’ will bear almost any ‘how.’”
When we think about our own personal life experiences, I think we need to understand meaning. Because money is not going to bring you happiness. It buys luxuries, but it’s not going to bring you happiness. I think it’s very important for people to define their personal happiness.
When it comes to building a company, mission-driven companies just do better. You can’t staple a mission onto a company if it’s inauthentic. It has to be truly authentic. Natera is a good example. It started with the CEO wanting to help people have healthy babies, and though it’s expanded, it remains such a mission-driven company. That mission defines the kind of decisions they make inside the company and gives people comfort when they’re pulling all-nighters or doing incredibly hard work to remember the purpose they’re serving.
To the Lighthouse is an iconic novel. On one level, it’s about a family, but it’s about much more than that. It’s about death, existence, the human condition – and how we can be so close to someone without really knowing them.
From a formal perspective, Woolf immerses you in her characters’ innermost thoughts without using much dialogue and creates a dreamlike state. From the reader’s perspective, you’re surfing different perspectives, different inner monologues, and the passage of time. Nearly a hundred years after it was published, it’s a work that still feels innovative and disruptive.
I really admire Dan Yergin’s The Prize. It’s a history of the last two hundred years through the lens of the most important industry of that period: oil. It’s got it all: the personalities, business, geology, politics, and wars that defined that period. I think you could do no better in understanding why the world is structured the way it is than by reading that one book.
I’d choose Pale Fire by Vladimir Nabokov. It’s a wild, unusual book by an unusual person and author. It’s structured as a fictional 999-line poem and then a fictional line-by-line annotation of it. It requires a lot of choices at every turn – including how to read it (the poem and then the annotation? Flipping back and forth?). So it makes you work for it. But at heart, it’s an incredible work about the relevance of stories, how thin the line is between our reality and the narratives we tell ourselves, and the importance of those narratives for sustenance. It’s also about imagination and creation, and that whole worlds can be created by powerful ideas. It asks the reader to constantly figure out what is real and what is not, or to give up and accept the uncomfortable state of not knowing, thereby embracing the story. I love reading across genres, but nothing deepens my thinking and takes my mind to new places like great works of fiction.
Practical Ethics by Peter Singer is a really good, no-nonsense approach to thinking about ethics. It really helps show you how to reason about all kinds of issues with an open mind, without assuming that our current ethical intuitions are the be-all and end-all.
In that vein, Derek Parfitt mentions that there’s really only been a couple of generations in which people have made what he calls “non-religious ethics” their life’s work. If you look at the whole history of philosophy, almost all ethical discussions occurred within a religious context where the set of possible answers had to align with what had been thought thousands of years earlier. There had really only been a couple of exceptions. And only a short period of time since that kind of inquiry became more widespread. Parfitt saw that as a reason to be optimistic about the possibility of making substantial moral progress.
I would choose The Giver. It’s required middle school reading in parts of America. That’s actually how I came across it: discovering it when my kids were in school. It’s absolutely astonishing. You’re reading this book set in what is supposed to be a utopia. But partway through, there’s a crack in the facade.
I feel like we’re all living in a bubble of this kind, and every once in a while, there’s a crack. It’s our job to look through the crack and figure out what it means for us and those around us.
I’d pick The Weirdest People in the World by Joseph Henrich. It basically says that the Protestant Revolution changed the way we associated ourselves and each other. We used to be very, very tribal, which impacts trust. The Protestant Revolution forced nuclear families and separation, and those shifts required us to be pro-social.
It has a second thesis on how free markets produce pro-social behavior. The reason I’d choose it is that if you look at the long arc of humanity, the ultimate enemy is entropy. That never goes away, and I don’t think any single tribe solves that. So you need pro-social behavior to actually undertake planetary-level innovation, and to do that, we need to understand how we operate when it comes to trust, coordination, and cooperation.
Beyond that, I’d mention David Deutsch’s The Beginning of Infinity, Taleb’s Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails, Hamming’s The Art of Doing Science and Engineering, Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man.
Fukuyama has since recanted on the view in the book, but it’s this Hegelian take on humanity, the conclusion of which is that liberal democracy is the end of history. I think that’s being questioned right now, but Fukuyama does such a great job of outlining the Hegelian perspective and showing there is this evolution of humans, and we are continuing to get better. Fukuyama thought that maybe we’d arrived; the conclusion now is that we haven’t. But I love the idea that, as a species, we’re improving how we interact, how we make policies, and how we socialize.
2025-12-02 21:03:57
Guru: The AI source of truth for work.
Auth0: Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone.
Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug.
A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society.
We explore:
The experimental mindset that led Joey from horse-racing predictions to mining bitcoin in high school
Why Augur was the right idea at the wrong moment, and what it taught Joey about timing and infrastructure
The product, liquidity, and founder-market fit signals that persuaded Founders Fund to back Polymarket
Why resolution is the hardest problem in prediction markets, and how Polymarket approaches it
How crypto treasury companies are emerging as a major force and where ETFs fit in
Why mimetic behavior drives entire sectors and how savvy investors read those waves
The rise and fall of Operation Choke Point and its impact on crypto
How Founders Fund reframed Joey’s approach to evaluating founders, markets, and structural shifts
(00:00) Intro
(04:10) How Joey began making predictions with horse racing
(08:00) Why Joey began coding with Applesoft BASIC
(09:32) How Joey first discovered crypto
(11:06) Why Joey dropped out of school to pursue crypto
(12:52) The origins of Joey’s interest in medical school
(16:15) How Joey spends nights and weekends splitting time between biotech and trading
(17:18) The early influences behind Augur’s creation
(19:40) Why prediction markets captivated early crypto thinkers
(23:26) The unlock crypto created for prediction markets
(29:22) How Polymarket began and why Joey decided to back it
(32:11) What made Polymarket the right team
(35:25) The FBI raid and how Shane responded
(38:20) Why Joey expected Polymarket’s volume to hold after the election
(40:20) The trend toward duopolies in financial markets
(42:37) What sets Polymarket’s product design apart
(45:25) How to keep prediction markets clear and unambiguous
(48:31) The rise of crypto treasury companies and FF’s work with BitMine
(51:26) The value of crypto treasuries and the role of ETFs
(54:33) The mimetic rise of crypto treasury companies
(57:03) Joey’s take on where the crypto market stands now
(1:00:23) Why Founders Fund is bullish on ETH
(1:03:03) Operation Choke Point, regulatory whiplash, and the end of the crypto crackdown
(1:06:04) Where the Clarity Act falls short
(1:08:56) How Joey’s thinking has evolved since joining Founders Fund
(1:13:21) Final meditations
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeykrug
Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future: https://www.amazon.com/Zero-One-Notes-Startups-Future/dp/0804139296
The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future: https://www.amazon.com/Power-Law-Venture-Capital-Making/dp/B094PSKDZV
More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite: https://www.amazon.com/More-Money-Than-God-audiobook/dp/B004AUQPF0
The Alchemy of Finance: Reading the Mind of the Market: https://www.amazon.com/Alchemy-Finance-Reading-Mind-Market/dp/0471043133
Dan Romero’s website: https://www.generalist.com/p/dan-romero
Sean Parker on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/parkersean
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy
Micree Zhan on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/micree-zhan-305a1817a
Tom Lee on X: https://x.com/fundstrat
Michael Saylor’s website: https://www.michael.com
Peter Thiel on X: https://x.com/peterthiel
No Rivals: The Prophet (Part I): https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-1
No Rivals: The Disciples (Part II): https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-2
Founders Fund: https://foundersfund.com/
The Kentucky Derby: https://www.kentuckyderby.com
Applesoft Basic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Applesoft_BASIC
Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System: https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/training/annual-national-training-seminar/2018/Emerging_Tech_Bitcoin_Crypto.pdf
Ethereum Whitepaper: https://ethereum.org/whitepaper
Atypical Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome: https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/atypical-hemolytic-uremic-syndrome
Soliris: https://www.drugs.com/soliris.html
Alexion: https://alexion.com
Augur: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augur_(software)#References
The Future of Farcaster with Dan Romero: https://www.generalist.com/p/dan-romero
Polymarket: https://polymarket.com
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com
Alchemy: https://www.alchemy.com
Pantera Capital: https://panteracapital.com
CME Group: https://www.cmegroup.com
CBOE: https://www.cboe.com
BitMine: https://www.bitminetech.io
Workrise: https://www.rigup.com
Clarity Act of 2025: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633
Joining Founders Fund: https://medium.com/@joeykrug/joining-founders-fund-4c3544633081
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