2026-03-27 20:00:00
Let’s start with something positive: You. Why you? Because you are awesome, you’re wonderful, your opinions are sound, your decisions are spot-on, you’re never on the wrong side of an argument, and you’re just generally a solid citizen. Don’t take my word for it. Just talk to your favorite AI for a while, and it will tell you the same thing. You may have already noticed the obsequious fawning that surfaces when you communicate with AI, but there’s a chance you’ve missed it—since, you know, it’s simply stating an obvious core truth that lives at the intersection of your rightness and righteousness. These Stuart Smalley-esque daily affirmations are baked right into the products. I know, I know. AI is known for its hallucinations, but it’s also known for being able to crunch large amounts of data and come up with a clear summary of the facts, the results of which are as follows: You deserve good things, you are entitled to your share of happiness, you are fun to be with. Hell, even when you’re in the wrong, you’re actually in the right.
“Stanford researchers tested 11 leading AI models and found they all exhibit sycophancy — a fancy word for telling people what they want to hear. On average, these chatbots agreed with users 49% more often than real humans did. Even when users described lying, manipulating partners, or breaking the law, the AI endorsed their behavior 47% of the time.” Stanford just proved your AI chatbot is flattering you into bad decisions. “Here’s the part that should worry everyone. Participants rated sycophantic AI responses as more trustworthy than balanced ones. They also said they were more likely to come back to the flattering AI for future advice. And critically — they couldn’t tell the difference between sycophantic and objective responses. Both felt equally ‘neutral’ to them.”
+ “Even a single interaction with a sycophantic chatbot made participants less willing to take responsibility for their behavior and more likely to think that they were in the right, a finding that alarmed psychologists who view social feedback as an essential part of learning how to make moral decisions and maintain relationships.” NYT (Gift Article): Seeking a Sounding Board? Beware the Eager-to-Please Chatbot.
+ Here’s the full report from Science: Sycophantic AI decreases prosocial intentions and promotes dependence. “Although affirmation may feel supportive, sycophancy can undermine users’ capacity for self-correction and responsible decision-making. Yet because it is preferred by users and drives engagement, there has been little incentive for sycophancy to diminish.” (Don’t worry. If big tech eventually does tone down the lickspittling, bootlicking, groveling, kowtowing adulation and unctuously servile toadyism, you can always replace it by having yourself a cabinet meeting.)
“For the better part of the past year, Wall Street analysts and tech-industry observers have fretted publicly about an AI bubble. The fear is that too much money is coming in too fast and that generative-AI companies still have not offered anything close to a viable business model. If growth were to stall or the technology were to be seen as failing to deliver on its promises, the bubble might burst, triggering a chain reaction across the financial system. Everyone—big banks, private-equity firms, people who have no idea what’s mixed into their 401(k)—would be hit by the AI crash. Until recently, that kind of crash felt hypothetical; today, it feels plausible and, to some, almost inevitable.” The Atlantic (Gift Article) on how the Iran war might trigger some big economic problems (beyond the ones you’re already thinking about): Welcome to a Multidimensional Economic Disaster.
+ As per usual, while some people are worried about tech advancement and portfolio returns, others are worried about less lofty pursuits; like eating. NYT (Gift Article): Global Food Supply Faces a Dangerous Bottleneck as Iran War Persists. “Fertilizer prices are climbing as a result of disruptions in the Middle East, putting global food supplies at risk.”
“Donald Trump announced this week that the United States and Iran had made significant progress in negotiations, and he was allowing five days to reach a deal. Tehran denied that it was talking with Washington at all. This is not, in any meaningful sense, a negotiation: It is a countdown. The timing is not coincidental. Thousands of Marines and much of the 1st Brigade of the 82nd Airborne are en route to the Middle East. Trump may intend the talks to act as cover for an escalation decision already made. Even if he doesn’t, the structural reality is the same: When the deadline expires, he will be close to having significant ground-combat capability in the region and a collapsing diplomatic process to justify using it.” Thomas Wright in The Atlantic (Gift Article): The Countdown to a Ground War.
+ Or, maybe not? “[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran … Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on.” Inside the White House divide on Iran.
+ “Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the United States did not need to deploy ground troops to succeed in the war in Iran, which he said would end within weeks rather than months, even as Iran moved to assert its control over the critical Strait of Hormuz.” But does anyone believe Rubio is the decider on any of this stuff? Just read this craziness. “Mr. Rubio told reporters in Paris that the United States had not received a formal response from Iran to President Trump’s 15-point plan for ending the war. Mr. Trump has said that peace talks are underway and going well, but Iranian officials have said that contacts between the two countries have been minimal and mostly indirect, not yet amounting to real negotiations.” Here’s the latest from the NYT.
What to Watch: “A century before the events of Game of Thrones, two unlikely heroes wander Westeros in the new series adapted from George R. R. Martin’s novella.” A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms on HBO is an awesome watch, and a great addition to the Game of Thrones world.
+ What to Hear: Last night, I took my guitar-playing teen to see the great Record Company in concert. They’re out celebrating the tenth anniversary of their Give It Back to You Album. But they’re best seen live. About thirty seconds into last night’s show, my son looked over and nodded in approval. For his old dad, that’s about as rock n’ roll as it gets.
+ What to Movie: “Marcelo (Wagner Moura) is a researcher on the run from mercenary killers after becoming the target of a dictator’s political tumult in 1977 Brazil.” The Secret Agent takes place in the 70s and unfurls at a 70s movie pace, so it’s perfect for a daytime watch on Hulu. Parts of it are also, sadly, a little too familiar.
+ What to Read: “It has also occluded something deeper: the human decisions that led to the killing of between 175 and 180 people, most of them girls between the ages of seven and 12. Someone decided to compress the kill chain. Someone decided that deliberation was latency. Someone decided to build a system that produces 1,000 targeting decisions an hour and call them high-quality. Someone decided to start this war. Several hundred people are sitting on Capitol Hill, refusing to stop it. Calling it an ‘AI problem’ gives those decisions, and those people, a place to hide.” AI got the blame for the Iran school bombing. The truth is far more worrying. (The fact that we’ve moved on from this story and only worry about gas prices is also pretty worrying…)
Fly By Night Outfits: The Senate passed a bill to get the TSA funding restarted. The House needs to pass something, and that could be tricky. In the meantime, the lines are getting longer. Here’s the latest from AP.
+ Black Diamond Level Warming: “Vital Arctic sea ice shrank to tie its lowest measured level for the winter, the season when ice grows.” Closer to home, ski resorts try ‘snow farming‘ as temperatures rise. “The practice involves making snow when conditions are ideal — in cold, dry weather— and piling it two to three stories high, then covering the mound with a large, insulated mat to shield it from sun and rain.”
+ Devaluing the Dollar: “Mr. Trump is set to become the first sitting U.S. president to have his signature on the greenback. His name will appear alongside that of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. As a result, the U.S. treasurer, whose name has been on the currency for more than a century, will not appear on the currency.” Trump’s Signature Is Set to Be Added to America’s Currency. (How’s he gonna sign the dollar? Sorry for your loss?)
+ Star Wars: “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s highly unusual decision to remove officers from a one-star promotion list has spurred allegations of racial and gender bias.” Hegseth Strikes Two Black and Two Female Officers From Promotion List.
+ Yay! Wait… TechDirt’s Mike Masnik is worried about the latest big tech court rulings. “First things first: Meta is a terrible company that has spent years making terrible decisions and being terrible at explaining the challenges of social media trust & safety, all while prioritizing growth metrics over user safety.” But… Everyone Cheering The Social Media Addiction Verdicts Against Meta Should Understand What They’re Actually Cheering For.
+ Jerk Chickens: “OpenAI has put the kibosh on yet another project — at least for the time being. On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that the AI company would be ‘indefinitely’ pausing plans to develop an ‘erotic’ mode for ChatGPT.” (Oh well, you’ve still got NextDraft…)
“During the 10 years when she cleaned the medical institution, her mother became ill, and Taylor-Allen realized she wanted to advocate for patients the same way doctors helped her mother.” Woman Matches into Residency at Same Hospital Where She Worked as a Janitor for 10 Years. And more on the story: After a decade as a Yale hospital janitor, she is now a doctor there.
+ “You want to try to meet the moment. The No Kings movement is of great import right now. When you have the opportunity to sing something where the timing is essential and if you have something powerful to sing, it elevates the moment, it elevates your job to another level. And I’m always in search of that … I don’t worry about [blowback]. My job is very simple: I do what I want to do, I say what I want to say and then people get to say what they want to say about it. Those are the rules of my game. That’s fine with me.” The Boss gets you warmed up for No Kings rallies this weekend. Springsteen says recent Minneapolis show was his most meaningful ever.
+ Tango Therapy: How the Dance of Passion Is Helping Parkinson’s Patients. Plus, “I thought my Parkinson’s was the end of my life, but dancing changed everything.”
+ A new labor agreement represents a breakthrough in women’s-sports history. The WNBA Players Got What They Wanted.
+ Scientists Filmed a Whale Birth. The Surprise: Mom Had Many Helpers.
+ Stranded couple rescued from Oahu floods after writing ‘SOS’ on beach.
2026-03-26 20:00:00
A couple decades after its launch, Facebook has been held accountable by juries for its addictive and otherwise damaging qualities. “A New Mexico jury on Tuesday found that Meta exposed minors to harmful content, including online solicitation, sexually explicit content and human trafficking under consumer-protection laws. Within 24 hours, a Los Angeles jury issued a verdict in a similar case, saying Meta and YouTube contributed to mental-health issues of a 20-year-old woman, Kaley G.M., because of the addictive nature of its products.” What is different about these cases is that instead of targeting the content on these sites which has been protected by Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act, plaintiffs went after the actual design of the products themselves. The damages hardly amount to a rounding error for a company like Meta, but the success of the new legal strategy will undoubtedly lead to a slew of new cases, some of which are already in progress, leading many to ask the question posed by the WSJ (Gift Article): Do Back-to-Back Courtroom Losses Herald Meta’s ‘Big Tobacco’ Moment?
+ Regardless of where you come down on the merits of these particular cases, or whether you think social media product designs can legitimately be distinguished from speech, there’s no doubt that these sites and apps are designed to use every trick and tech to compete with equally well-armed competitors to capture and hold as much of your attention (and often mis-informed outrage) as possible. While the old-school sites like Facebook have evolved into corporations that are willing to deploy addictive products because share price trumps the public good, newer products like the prediction markets have been quite intentionally built from the ground up to use every technique from Vegas to Silicon Valley to get you hooked. However these cases proceed, it’s hard not to think that what’s being fought out in courtrooms is actually yesterday’s battle, since users are already shifting their attention to artificial intelligence — and with the size of the bets corporations, investors, big banks, and others are making on this next big thing, the pressure to addict you (and the tech to do so) is more powerful than it’s ever been. Is this big tech’s tobacco moment? It may not matter. Big tech has already rolled up smokes that are way stronger, and we’re all lining up to take a puff.
+ NYT (Gift Article): What to Know About the Social Media Addiction Trials.
+ Om Malik on the political forces driving the cases, and what they might mean in terms of actual change. Meta’s May Day. “Underneath the political theater, the structural demands are real. And if a judge grants even a portion of them, they could change daily life for two billion people.” (Give or take a couple billion, that’s exactly what I feel I’ve done with NextDraft…)
“The kids are a little different here in Greystones. In 2023, the Irish seaside town just south of Dublin launched a grass-roots initiative led by local parents, school principals and community members to loosen the grip of technology on their younger kids by adopting a voluntary ‘no smart devices’ code and supporting it with workshops and social events. Three years later, no one in Greystones claims to have cured the ills of modern technology. But they’ve learned that they can’t do anything about it one child at a time. Only a townwide effort could defang the kids’ ‘everyone else has one’ argument.’ ‘With social media, it’s a collective thing,’ said Jennifer Whitmore, a member of Irish parliament and a Greystones mother of four. ‘Addressing it in a clustered manner is the way to go.'” NYT (Gift Article): A Phone-Free Childhood? One Irish Village Is Making It Happen. (Wait, how do they execute family-wide group orders on DoorDash…)
“The U.S. oil blockade on Cuba is fast exhausting the country’s supply of fuel, causing daily blackouts, food shortages, canceled classes and black-market gas prices approaching $40 a gallon. It is also crippling Cuba’s universal health care system, a state institution once considered a triumph for a poor nation, but is now struggling to provide basic care. In interviews, six Cuban doctors said that rapidly deteriorating conditions at hospitals and clinics across Cuba were causing deaths that would otherwise be preventable.” In theory, this blockade is intended to weaken the current government and ultimately make life better for Cubans. That was also part of the reasoning for the war in Iran. But somehow, things don’t always seem to work out for the citizens supposedly being helped. NYT (Gift Article): Cuban Patients Are Dying Because of U.S. Blockade, Doctors Say.
“It’s a testing method as old as Socrates and making a comeback in the AI age. A growing number of college professors say they are turning to oral exams, and combining a variety of old-fashioned and cutting-edge techniques, to help address a crisis in higher education. ‘You won’t be able to AI your way through an oral exam,’ says Schaffer, who introduced the oral defense last semester.” Perfect homework, blank stares: Why colleges are turning to oral exams to combat AI.
+ God Help Us: “Let every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness and our great nation … Give them wisdom in every decision, endurance for the trial ahead, unbreakable unity, and overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.” At Pentagon Christian service, Hegseth prays for violence ‘against those who deserve no mercy.’ (This guy is like Robert McNamara speaking in tongues.) Hegseth’s prayers have been answered, over and over, in the Caribbean. U.S. Military Kills 4 People in Boat Strike.
+ A Peace of Work: “I read a story today that I’m desperate to make a deal. I’m the opposite of desperate. I don’t care.” And with that, here’s the latest on the Iran war and what may or may not be peace talks that may or may not be happening. Trump may not care, but you can bet Zelensky does. Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East. This would be more good news for Putin. Meanwhile … Russia sends drones to Iran according to Western intelligence.
+ Error Port: “While a traveler’s struggle to stay sane in a crowded airport is not for the weak-willed, it doesn’t compare to the hardships facing agents trying to pay bills and feed a family without a regular paycheck for six weeks and counting. Some have been sleeping in their cars at the airport to save on gas. Others have lost child care. Some face eviction.” And in a uniquely 2026 irony, the suffering TSA agents are being replaced by ICE (the organization at the heart of the Congressional TSA funding standoff). WaPo (Gift Article): A new nightmare awaits Americans at the airport. “Immigration agents with little public trust and training add to stress of flying for Americans.” Meanwhile, travelers flock to Clear security app to bypass TSA lines amid US airport chaos.
+ Crime Pays: “The Justice Department has settled for roughly $1.2 million a lawsuit from Michael Flynn, the former national security adviser to President Donald Trump who pleaded guilty during the Republican’s first term to lying to the FBI about his conversations with a top Russian diplomat and was later pardoned.”
+ Fitness Test: “The International Olympic Committee has barred transgender athletes from competing in the women’s category of the Olympics and said that all participants in those events must undergo genetic testing.”
+ A Sure Thing Bet: “Indeed, why not let people gamble on whether there will be a famine in Gaza? The market logic is cold and simple: More bets means more information, and more informational volume is more efficiency in the marketplace of all future happenings. But from another perspective—let’s call it, baseline morality?—the transformation of a famine into a windfall event for prescient bettors seems so grotesque as to require no elaboration.” Derek Thompson: We Haven’t Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do to America.
+ Let’s Chill For a Second: “Carlos Osorio, a photojournalist with Reuters, recently traveled to Canada’s northern reaches to document military exercises, daily life, robotic testing, wildlife, and more.” Scenes From the Canadian Arctic.
“For nearly 50 years, the Annapolis Oyster Roast & Sock Burning has marked the long-awaited return of warmer days to the East Coast boating hub — and time for sailing season to begin again.” Decades ago, a Maryland sailor burned his winter socks. Now it’s a spring tradition.
+ Damaged church floor may have revealed the grave of the fourth musketeer.
2026-03-25 20:00:00
With Opening Day upon us, it seems like a reasonable time to go over the lineup: Who’s on first, What’s on second, and I Don’t Know is on third. While that old Abbott and Costello routine has been around for nearly a century, the questions it poses are more timely than ever in our AI-driven world, when we frequently don’t know who or what we’re talking to. The latest tech craze is AI agents that are being used to manage tasks previously completed by you. The more you use the agent, the more it knows about you, and the more it can be deployed to act on your behalf. Which leads us to a headline like this from the NYT (Gift Article): Sorry, Mom. You’re Chatting With an A.I. Agent, Not Your Son. “Will Laverty, 18, a software engineer who came to San Francisco from Australia a month ago, had a backlog of texts from friends and family asking what he had been up to in California. While it made him feel ‘kind of guilty,’ he put his parents in a group chat with his A.I. agent. ‘Pretty much all the things I wanted to tell them in my head, it already knew about from tracking everything about my life, and it could just tell them without me having to think.'”
+ In a world where AI can represent you, how will you be able to prove that you are really you? Just this month, Benjamin Netanyahu had to release a series of proof of life videos after an image that made it look like he had a sixth finger went viral. Many people are still convinced he’s dead. This represents a big problem for world leaders, but it also represents a big problem for everyone else. Experts are now recommending that you and your family members have a code word that you can use to prove you’re who you say you are. The BBC’s Thomas Germain decided to run a little test to see if he could prove he’s real. I tried to prove I’m not AI. My aunt wasn’t convinced. (Here’s a dead giveaway when it comes to my identity. If you contact me during tonight’s Giants-Yankees opening night game and I respond, it’s definitely AI.)
Earlier this week, Patti Smith, Bruce Springsteen, and Michael Stipe performed at Democracy Now’s 30th Anniversary event. While I’m inspired that many musical legends have risen to the moment (and can’t wait for Springsteen’s Land of Hope and Dreams tour to arrive in San Francisco), I worry that what we’re seeing isn’t exactly a youth movement. (And no, you can’t count Neil Young as a Young person.) Why are the college students and other young people who were so fired up to protest an Israel-Hamas battle on the other side of the world largely sitting on their hands when it comes to the dismantling of American democracy, including the betrayal of allies, the killing of Americans, and what appears to be a strategy-free war of choice? Rose Horowitch in The Atlantic (Gift Article) attempts to give a few answers to that question (though I imagine there are many more). Where Are All the Campus Protests?
+ At universities, are we seeing more knee-bending than fist raising? Boston University Pulls Pride Flags, Raising Free Speech Worries.
“Almost everywhere you look, there’s airline trouble. A tragic crash at LaGuardia Airport. Long lines at airport security. Thousands of cancellations because of bad weather in Dallas and Atlanta. Higher prices. More proposed airline mergers. And a spate of near misses in the sky. You could blame human error or partisan fights in Washington for some of these issues, but there is a deeper story behind the turbulence: Nearly half a century ago, the U.S. government abandoned its position that regulation and investment were critical elements for America’s transportation infrastructure.” Ganesh Sitaraman in the NYT (Gift Article): This Is Why Flying Is So Awful.
“I’ve heard all the arguments both for and against legalizing online gambling. What I think is missing from that conversation is the fact that it’s not really just gambling online that has been legalized. What has been legalized is extraction, and the new methods of extraction that are possible using the internet and mobile devices. These companies have identified a group of people with a monetizable compulsion, and we have legalized the tools needed to industrially harvest money from them.” Defector: Why I Got Out Of The Gambling Business.
Platform Over Function: “What makes the Los Angeles case unique is that, rather than trying to persuade the jury that the content on Meta and YouTube is harmful, the plaintiff’s attorneys framed the case around the actual design of the social media platforms.” Meta, YouTube found negligent in landmark social media addiction lawsuit. This is the second big tech-related decision this week. “A New Mexico jury determined Tuesday that Meta knowingly harmed children’s mental health and concealed what it knew about child sexual exploitation on its social media platforms, a verdict that signals a changing tide against tech companies and the government’s willingness to crack down.”
+ A Peace of Work: “Various news agencies and Iranian state media have reported that Tehran has responded ‘negatively’ to the US proposal to end the war, but there are contradictory statements over whether it has rejected it outright. Reuters news agency, citing a senior Iranian official, reported that Tehran’s initial response to the proposal was ‘not positive’ but that it was still reviewing it. That is at odds with a report by the Iranian state-owned Press TV, which quoted a senior political security official saying Tehran has rejected the proposal, while putting forward its own conditions to end the war. Meanwhile, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, citing a ‘knowledegable source’, reported that Tehran will not accept a ceasefire and believes it would not be ‘logical’ to enter talks.” In other words, the peace talks are as confusing as the war has been. Here’s the latest from The Guardian and AP.
+ Putin New Perspective: “In February, something shifted. Mr. Putin began, suddenly, to pay attention to the flagging economy. There were even signs he might be changing his mind on negotiations with Ukraine, perhaps seeking an exit from the conflict. Then came the war in Iran.” For Putin, the War in Iran Changed Everything.
+ Blue Devil and Red Devil: “As a boy, Majok Bior escaped a country engulfed in war. As a gifted student, he won a full scholarship to Duke University and looked toward a dazzling future. Bior studied computer science at the North Carolina campus during his freshman year and was a winger on an intramural soccer team. After finishing the fall semester of his sophomore year, Bior returned to Uganda for winter break. He played chess with friends and recounted the brutal winters and demands of chemistry class. Then President Trump began to ban students from Africa, starting with South Sudan where Bior was born. He hasn’t returned to campus since.” WSJ (Gift Article): He Had a Full Ride at Duke—Until America Cut Him Off. (Feel safer?)
+ Lactose Intolerant: “The video was meant to show that the U.S. military, which for months has bombed boats it says are carrying drugs from South America, was ‘now bombing Narco Terrorists on land,’ Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote on social media.” NYT (Gift Article): The U.S. Said It Helped Bomb a Drug Camp. It Was a Dairy Farm.
+ Viewfinder: Wapo (Gift Article): In Trump’s war messaging, veterans see something new — and disturbing. “Service members and families who lost loved ones say the Trump team’s memes and jokes trivialize combat and sacrifice. Trump aides say the backlash sends views soaring.” (And these days, what matters more than views?)
+ Resort Re-Sorted “Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election Tuesday for the Florida state House district that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, flipping the seat from Republican control.”
“In a social media post, the fire department said cleanup has been slow as the Missouri Department of Transportation works with the truck company’s insurance carrier.” Wrecked truck carrying tofu stinks up Missouri town.
+ Travelers passing through Philadelphia International Airport on Tuesday may have expected long security lines. But the longest line was made of cheesesteaks.
2026-03-24 20:00:00
Parents being confronted with perplexing questions from their kids is nothing new. But today’s parents of college or so aged children are faced with a doozy when it comes to giving advice about entering the rapidly changing job market. Career paths that were recently considered the safest route forward have suddenly turned a corner, and are now heading straight into the oncoming headlights of the AI convoy. When my kids bring up the topic, I suggest that getting career advice from a guy who writes a newsletter with no revenue model might not be the wisest idea. “Maybe you should ask Claude.” Making matters even worse (which is the defining characteristic of 2026), today’s job market is terrible for recent college graduates, and that has almost nothing to do with new technology. “Although AI may be replacing some entry-level jobs on the margins, there is little evidence it is the main culprit — at least not yet. Rather, many economists believe employment challenges for young people with college degrees stem more from the ‘low hire, low fire’ dynamics in the labor market.” NYT (Gift Article): Young Graduates Face the Grimmest Job Market in Years.
+ Aside from becoming a billionaire (they seem to be doing great these days, so why not?), is there a safe spot in the job market of the near future? WSJ (Gift Article): Why Healthcare Is Doing the Heavy Lifting in This Job Market. “Forget the AI hype and the data-center boom. What’s keeping the jobs market afloat these days is Grandma and Grandpa … Strip out the medical sector, and the rest of the American economy is actually losing jobs.”
And I said, “Hey kid, you think that’s oil? Man, that ain’t oil, that’s blood.” Bruce Springsteen, Lost in the Flood.
As “the founding director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs and a co-founding dean of the Columbia Climate School” (and a very serious Bruce Springsteen fan), there are few people who understand the global energy market better than Jason Bordoff. Thankfully, Jason also excels at explaining energy issues in clear terms that the rest of us can understand. Since energy, particularly the oil that used to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, is now at the core of the Iran war, it’s a good time to catch up on what’s happening and what’s at stake. Ezra Klein interviewed Jason Bordoff earlier this week on his podcast. NYT (Gift Article): What Happens if 20 Percent of the World’s Oil Disappears? “The Gulf — the Middle East — we all know, since the 1970s, is a huge energy producer: Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, of course. All of that oil, most of it, flows by tanker through this very narrow strait that juts like a little triangle around a corner, and it’s right where Iran is. So it doesn’t take that much with some drones or explosives in a dinghy boat racing out to a tanker … You’re talking about a disruption of about 10 million barrels of oil, maybe a little bit more — so more than 10 percent of global supply. During the Arab oil embargo in 1973, in contrast, you saw about 6 or 7 percent of world supply disrupted. So this is by far the largest energy supply disruption we have ever seen.” (You’ll have to read or listen to the end for the Springsteen-related tips…)
+ For most of the world, the oil and energy wars are creating chaos, concern, and higher prices. For some people, the massive price swings, often driven by presidential tweets, present quite the opportunity. “Traders bet hundreds of millions of dollars on oil contracts just minutes before US President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the US would postpone strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Market data reviewed by the BBC shows the volume of trade spiked around fifteen minutes before a social media post by the president announcing the move.”
+ “Trump’s sudden climb-down was startling. Who could have seen this coming? The answer is, the person or people who bought large quantities of stock market futures and sold large quantities of oil futures around 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement.” Paul Krugman: Treason in the Futures Markets.
+ How will the market respond to the instability and madness spreading from the Oval Office across the globe? You’d think it would be concerned. But, as I explained yesterday, it’s a Bull—- Market.
“Senators Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT) introduced a bill on Monday that could prevent prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket from allowing users to wager money on sports events or play casino-style games.” Don Jr. has financial relationships with both leading prediction markets, so it’s unlikely that we’ll see them reined in anytime soon. Meanwhile, while people love sports betting, they’re quickly getting used to betting on everything. David Wallace-Wells on The Casino That’s Eating the World. “‘The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion,’ Tarek Mansour, the chief executive of another major prediction market, Kalshi, declared in November. But who wants this future, besides perhaps inveterate gamblers and those people who profit off them?” (Bingo. And I mean Bingo as in that’s exactly right, not Bingo the casino game…)
Like many middle powers that used to be able to depend on the United States, Canada finds itself looking to establish its place in the new world order. There will be political challenges. There will also be challenges from Mother Nature. NYT (Gift Article): In Canada’s Frozen North, With Canada’s Frozen Soldiers. “Canada’s military ambitions in the Arctic hinged on a frozen door that wouldn’t open … ‘It’s frozen,’ said an air force detachment commander, ‘frozen shut.’ That left the force’s Chinook helicopter out in the cold. As Canada’s armed forces launched their biggest-ever Arctic exercise, soldiers blasted mobile heaters in an effort to open the hangar door and haul in the Chinook, which had been grounded by a mechanical problem and the extreme temperatures.” (It might be faster just to wait for climate change to open the door…)
Prince Charming King? “In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government, the people familiar with the conversations said. Prince Mohammed, the people familiar with the discussions said, has argued that Iran poses a long-term threat to the Gulf that can only be eliminated by getting rid of the government.” NYT (Gift Article): Saudi Leader Is Said to Push Trump to Continue Iran War in Recent Calls. Meanwhile, “Pakistan’s military leadership has been attempting to broker negotiations between the US and Iran, after the White House confirmed that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, had a call with Donald Trump on Sunday to discuss the conflict.” JD Vance is being floated as a lead negotiator. Here’s the latest from The Guardian.
+ Mullin Mulled Over: Markwayne Mullin confirmed as the next secretary of Homeland Security. (On the plus side, he’s almost certain not to be the worst person ever to hold that job.)
+ Moonstruck: “NASA plans to invest $20 billion over the next seven years to develop a base on the surface of the moon, the latest major strategy shakeup aimed at enabling humans to live on the lunar surface long-term.” (That sounds like too much money to spend, unless we all get to decide who to send there first.)
+ Cheet Sheet: Can an entire political movement be summed up in one headline? Probably not, but we can try. Trump, Who Calls Mail-in Voting ‘Cheating,’ Just Voted by Mail.
+ Betrayed: “Mohammad Nazeer Paktiawal, 41, who was known to his family and friends as Nazeer, served alongside U.S. Army Special Forces in Paktika province – one of the most dangerous in Afghanistan – starting in 2005 … He and his family were evacuated when the pro-U.S. government in Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021.” How an Afghan man who aided U.S. military forces died in ICE custody in Texas. And from Pro Publica: Trump Has Detained the Parents of More Than 11,000 U.S. Citizen Kids. (Feel safer?)
+ Foul Wind: “French energy company TotalEnergies has agreed to abandon two Atlantic offshore wind projects after the Trump administration offered to buy out its federal leases for close to $1 billion, with the money to be redirected into fossil fuel development.”
+ Cold Reception: “Americans have learned to live with ads on smartphones and other devices as a necessary trade-off of connectivity. They’ve also gotten used to growing intrusions in the physical world, where everything from bathroom stalls to taxicab seats have become fair game for marketers. But the kitchen remained largely off-limits.” Until now. Ads Are Popping Up on the Fridge and It Isn’t Going Over Well.
“A Maryland man who made history as the first quadruple amputee to compete in the professional, televised American Cornhole League has been arrested on suspicion of shooting and killing a passenger in his car during an argument.”
2026-03-23 20:00:00
It’s too bad the March Madness moniker is already taken, because there aren’t a lot of better ways to describe the latest mad-making weekend in geopolitics. In a social media post, Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or he’d start bombing power plants. Iran issued counter-threats about hitting other power and desalination plants in the region. By Monday morning, Trump had backed off his original ultimatum, saying that the highly inexperienced and highly conflicted team of Kushner and Witkoff had some productive talks with Iranian leadership. Iran went so far, we’re told, as to agree not to have a nuclear weapon. The Iranian side insists that no such talks took place, and given Trump’s track record with honesty (including when it comes to this war), it’s hard to imagine he’s the one telling the truth (even when being measured against what’s left of one of the world’s most awful and perennially mendacious regimes). To summarize, an unstable leader leading an optional war made threats via social media and then rescinded them based on what appears to be imaginary talks and then lied about the whole thing, leaving our strategy unclear, our goals still a mystery, and a key energy route still closed. And the market responded to this mind-boggling instability (and what looks a lot like its own manipulation) by … soaring. Yes, the same market we’ve long depended on to be an unemotional measure of corporate health and future earnings, dependent on stable leadership and the rule of law, seems to be going as insane as the rest of us. We’re talking crazy money, here. Before we follow the money, shouldn’t we consider who the money is following? It’s not like investors aren’t aware that the person whose words are dramatically moving the market is known for constant lying. But they’re still buying his BS. Trump has given new meaning to the phrase, bull market. Don’t get me wrong. My portfolio is as relieved as yours. But it sure seems like the market is in denial about what’s going on in American politics. Or maybe, like the rest of us, the market was happily distracted while tracking college basketball brackets over the weekend — at least there, we’re supposed to have madness.
One thing we’ve learned in Ukraine and the Gulf is that war is being transformed by cheap drones, big data, and AI. In this video, Fareed Zakaria examines Iran’s military response to US, Israeli airstrikes and says that it represents a new military architecture that is challenging the old model of military supremacy. “What used to require great industrial nations capacity can increasingly be assembled, adapted and scaled by much smaller states. The economics of war are being turned upside down.” In some ways, this trend levels the military playing field
+ Technology is completely changing war, often in unimagined ways. Consider Iran’s surveillance society. The regime installed cameras to track its own citizens. Those cameras were hacked to help provide accurate locations on targets, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran built a vast camera network to control dissent. Israel turned it into a targeting tool.
“Security lines stretched for hours on Monday at US airports where unpaid Transportation Safety Administration screening agents refused to report for duty.” So far, Trump has rejected proposed deals to fund parts of DHS to create an off-ramp for the nightmare delays taking place at many airports. The solution so far: Send ICE into airports. (Untrained ICE officers vs Irate Travelers. What could go wrong?)
+ “Two pilots were killed and dozens were injured Sunday night after an arriving plane collided with a fire truck on a runway at New York’s LaGuardia Airport.”
+ The Atlantic (Gift Article): Fatal crashes, overstressed controllers, and endless security lines reveal a system teetering on the brink of failure. (I’m guessing anyone reading this in an endless airport security line thinks we’ve passed the teetering stage.)
“The body lay slumped on the jail floor, curled around a metal toilet. Investigators found no evidence of homicide, just a few scraps of rolled-up paper, singed and scattered on the floor like scorched confetti. For months, inmates had been falling ill at the Cook County jail in Chicago. Officials said they had heard rumors that extremely toxic drugs were infiltrating the facility, delivered on something so ordinary that it seemed impossible to stop … The paper itself must be the culprit — and it was deadly.” NYT (Gift Article): No Pills or Needles, Just Paper: How Deadly Drugs Are Changing. And what’s happening in jails is likely coming to a street corner near you. “The unbridled rise of synthetic drugs is as profound for the illicit drug market as the television was for the radio, or the computer for the typewriter, scientists say, and it is confounding law enforcement officials the world over. ‘This is the modern drug epidemic: It’s like nothing that’s happened in the world before — anywhere.'”
Things Are Going Bad, Stat: “I’m an E.R. doc, so I handle stress pretty well. But this was like being in a mass disaster nonstop for eight months.” … “I don’t think it is well understood that we’re not going to see the outcomes of all of this until Trump is long gone.” NYT (Gift Article) talked to 43 current and former CDC employees. The prognosis is not good. Inside the Turmoil at Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s C.D.C.
+ Robert Mueller: “Good, I’m Glad He’s Dead.” Disgustingly (but unsurprisingly), that’s how Trump responded to the death of Robert Mueller. From Garrett Graff: Remembering Robert Mueller. “Robert Mueller, the quintessential G-Man, a patriot and Purple Heart recipient who spent a half-century serving the country and pursuing the highest traditions of the Justice Department across six presidential administrations, repeatedly answering the nation’s call — from Vietnam to the halls of the J. Edgar Hoover building and the halls of Main Justice — until in his final chapter of public service he was betrayed by a former colleague and the Republican Party he’d spent a lifetime supporting, died Friday.”
+ Mail Pattern Boldness: “The Supreme Court’s conservative majority on Monday sounded skeptical of state laws that allow the counting of late-arriving mail ballots, a persistent target of President Donald Trump.” (Most of us are ready to mail in our ballots right now.)
+ Trouble in Paradise: “Over the weekend, heavy rains fell on soil already saturated by downpours from a winter storm a week ago, forcing thousands on the North Shore of Oahu to evacuate before more evacuations for parts of the island of Maui.” Hawaii assesses damage left by worst flooding in more than 20 years.
+ Havana Hunch: “Trump’s campaign to topple foreign adversaries encounters a battered but defiant regime.” No, we’re not talking about Iran. (Or Greenland.) Jon Lee Anderson in The New Yorker: Is Cuba Next?
+ Going Postal: “In dozens of thinly populated regions across the country, Amazon is building new delivery hubs to deliver packages in around two days. That might not seem especially rapid at a time when the e-commerce giant is introducing one-hour delivery in some areas, but residents of some far-flung Montana hamlets were used to waiting up to a week for their orders. The effort helps Amazon reduce its reliance on the U.S. Postal Service, a relationship that has become rocky following a dispute over contract terms.” WSJ (Gift Article): How Amazon Is Bringing Fast Delivery to Rural America.
+ Fan Base: “A Northwestern University graduate with a degree in economics, Radvinsky helped transform online p-rnography from an industry based mostly on bulk delivery of advertising-supported X-rated videos to something like an adult-themed hybrid of the gig economy and social media.” OnlyFans Owner Leo Radvinsky Dies at 43.
“Senior living resident Anita LeBrun wants to ‘cheers’ her friends with something stronger than grape juice. LeBrun is going viral for her testimony at a Minnesota House of Representatives committee meeting, where legislators considered the so-called ‘Grandparents’ Happy Hour’ bill that would allow group homes to serve alcohol to their residents and guests.”
+ “No twerking! You will be charged with disorderly conduct!” Cops ban over-the-top twerking at legendary Florida party beach. (Can a Footloose sequel be far behind?)
2026-03-20 20:00:00
I only read the internet for the articles. But apparently, there is a pent-up demand for images. Especially certain type of images. As you may know, Google Images was essentially created by Jennifer Lopez’s Versace dress. Of course, the quest for alluring images predates the internet (by a lot), and these images have been used to market everything from cigarettes to burgers to cars since the earliest days of advertising, starting with the Pearl Tobacco brand featuring a naked maiden on the package cover in 1871. (Back then, people needed a post coital smoke after just looking at the package.) Now, similar images are being used to market militaristic patriotism, war, and other political movements. “The beautiful Army blonde Jessica Foster has posed with an F-22 Raptor fighter jet, donned camouflage in the desert and walked a tarmac with President Donald Trump on the first day of the strikes on Iran. The slew of photos and videos depicting the patriotic life of the MAGA dream girl have led her Instagram account to explode, gaining more than a million followers since she began posting four months ago.” Only this latest form of sexualized marketing has a new twist (and pull). Jessica Foster is not even as real as Jessica Rabbit. She’s AI. And she’s part of an increasingly common trend. “Foster’s viral takeoff highlights an increasingly prevalent strategy for winning online attention. A slew of right-wing accounts, peddling patriotism mixed with soft-core pornography, use fake women and convincing imagery to grab viewers across a distracted internet, monetize their interest and score political points.” WaPo (Gift Article): Thousands have swooned over this MAGA dream girl. She’s made with AI. (Alt link). “A viral fake of an Army service member spotlights a new trend in online attention harvesting: part patriotism, part p-rn and 100 percent computer-made.” In fairness, the naked maiden featured on Pearl Tabacco packaging also wasn’t a real person. But back then, people knew that.
+ Google Search is now using AI to replace headlines with rewritten titles. (It might drive more clicks if they replace headlines with Jessica Foster…)
With more troops headed for the Gulf, the latest chapter in the art of how to win friends and influence people has been published on social media by Donald Trump. “Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER!” (Yikes, what did our allies do, use bonespurs to get out of fighting?) Remember when all the hysterical libs with Trump derangement syndrome warned that one day he’d get us into a global war and run it from his social media account? Well, I guess they learned their lesson…
+ David Ignatius wrote this before the latest NATO bashing. “Unwinding this conflict will be much harder than starting it was. Declaring ‘victory’ and walking away would leave the region in dangerous disarray. To truly end the crisis, Trump will have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and put limits on Iran’s ragged new leadership. He can achieve these goals through coercion, or diplomacy, or a combination of the two. But he must choose a strategy and implement it. Trump will compound the damage if he takes out his frustration over Iran by bashing Europe for its refusal to provide military aid. Attacking Iran was defensible; wrecking NATO isn’t.” The Iran War Is Metastasizing. Trump Needs an Endgame.
+ “I’ve been ambivalent about this war against Iran — to say the least. While nothing would improve the Middle East more than a decent government taking power in Tehran, I seriously doubt that simply pulverizing Iran from the air can generate that change.” Tom Friedman in the NYT (Gift Article): Once and for All Means Never.
+ On the war’s other front: Fears of an all-out Israeli invasion mount in Lebanon.
+ “A civilian in Tehran chronicles a country trapped between bombardment and repression—too terrorized to move, let alone start an uprising.” The New Yorker: What the War Has Done to Iranians.
A friend of mine ran an experiment this week by creating 200 different March Madness brackets. By the end of the first day of games, only one of them made it through unscathed. In other words, he beat the odds. Only 0.1% of NCAA tournament brackets are still perfect after High Point stuns Wisconsin, VCU’s win over North Carolina.
What to Watch: HBO describes DTF St Louis, starring Jason Bateman, David Harbour, and Linda Cardellini, as a darkly comedic series, in which a love triangle between three adults experiencing middle-age malaise leads to one of them ending up dead. But this Steven Conrad creation is even weirder (and better) than that. Grab a Watermelon Breeze smoothie and enjoy the first few episodes. If you dig the show and need more from Steven Conrad in between episode releases, check out his prior (and even weirder) series Patriot on Prime.
+ What to Read: “Some stories take on a life of their own because they show how things really are. Others spread because they tell us what we already believe. And sometimes a story that’s too good to be true is just that. But a good story is a hard thing to kill.” McKay Coppins in The Atlantic (Gift Article): The Incredible Story of the Cartel Olympics. “A Mexican athlete said he was kidnapped and forced to compete for his life in a tournament of gangs. But was he actually playing a different game?”
+ What to Comedy: Robby Hoffman’s Netflix special Wake Up (directed by John Mulaney) is well worth a watch. And if you missed last week’s pick, don’t. Chris Fleming Live at the Palace on HBO is one of the best and most unique stand-up shows I’ve seen in a long time.
The Next Excursion? “The Russian-flagged Anatoly Kolodkin is some 3,000 nautical miles from Cuba in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to reach the island in 10 days … If so, that would mark the first time any oil shipment from any country reaches Cuba in the past three months given a U.S. energy blockade.” Cuba readies for first Russian oil shipment of the year as energy crisis deepens.
+ Take My Wife, Please: “Paolo Zampolli, a former modeling agent turned presidential special envoy, had learned that his Brazilian ex-girlfriend was in a Miami jail, arrested on charges of fraud at her workplace. They had been in a custody battle over their teenage son. Now he saw an opportunity.” Trump Friend Asked ICE to Detain the Mother of His Child.
+ Getting Into Harvard, Again: ” The Justice Department filed a new lawsuit Friday against Harvard University, saying its leadership failed to address antisemitism on campus, creating grounds for the government to freeze existing grants and seek repayment for grants already paid.” (Reminder: “Jew hatred is real, but today’s anti-antisemitism isn’t a legitimate effort to fight it. It’s a cover for a wide range of agendas that have nothing to do with the welfare of Jewish people.” Trump Is Selling Jews a Dangerous Lie.)
+ Today in Dictator: Kim Jong Un sits on a tank with his daughter at a military exercise. And Trump’s Handpicked Arts Commission Approves Gold Coin With His Face on It.
+ Bachelorette Tu? “Disney/ABC executives first saw the video of Taylor Frankie Paul’s February 2023 domestic violence incident the same time as you.” Why ABC Had to Scrap The Bachelorette. (They wouldn’t want to risk the diminishment of the otherwise stellar reputation of reality show stars…)
+ Teleport Hole: “Gregg Phillips, the head of FEMA’s Office of Response and Recovery, has a history of violent political rhetoric and claims of teleporting to a Waffle House that are now out in the open.” (Think about it. This isn’t nearly weird or terrible enough to top the news these days…)
+ It Was a Leg (and Arms) Day: “France says it’s taking ‘appropriate measures’ after a naval officer’s use of the Strava exercise app inadvertently enabled journalists to geolocate the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle that is in the Mediterranean to help protect French and allied assets and interests during the Iran war.”
“The people of Minneapolis-St. Paul are being honored with a John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award for their response to the federal immigration enforcement operation this winter, the JFK Library Foundation announced Wednesday.” (Come on, Nobel Peace Prize committee, you know what to do!)
+ In Uganda, “Harerimana Ismail hasn’t had a paycheck since the beginning of last year. He’s kept working nonetheless.” He’s one reason why aid cuts weren’t as dire for the HIV population as predicted.
+ A baseball title unleashes the happiness Venezuelans kept bottled up for years. (Opening Day is about to do that for me…)
+ Strangers help 78-year-old DoorDash driver after viral doorbell video.
+ No passport, no problem. Meet the border-hopping cat who comes and goes as he pleases.
+ Possum found nestled in with plush toys at airport gift shop in Tasmania.