2026-04-07 15:36:36
In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate system of taxes and benefits upon non-employment. Using detailed measurements from micro-level and aggregate datasets, we identify model parameters and sources of heterogeneity across individuals for various countries. We run a horse race between competing explanations and find that U.S. hours per person declined after 2000 owing mainly to the rise of government health benefits provided to the non-employed. Non-U.S. countries have generous benefits for the non-employed, but this generosity has not changed as much over time as in the United States, and public health coverage does not depend on employment status or income levels. For these countries, the rise of labor supply is generally accounted for by a mix of factors, such as the rise of wages and the falling disutility of work.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
The post Why do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-07 12:50:30
The subtitle is Evidence for Direct, Reliable, and Portable Genetic Effects, and the authors are Tobias Wolfam, et.al. The abstract:
The interpretation of polygenic scores (PGS) for general cognitive ability (GCA) remains contested, with concerns about indirect genetic effects, environmental confounding, cross-ancestry portability, and the gap between PGS prediction and twin heritability estimates. Relying on a newly constructed PGS using within-family designs in two independent sibling cohorts (UK Biobank, N=4,642 pairs; ABCD, N=736 pairs), we demonstrate that direct genetic effects account for the large majority of PGS prediction (within-family attenuation Correcting for measurement error in brief cognitive assessments, the within-family association with latent general ability is approximately 0.45, substantially higher than observed-scale estimates. Cross-ancestry portability follows theoretical expectations (66% effect retention in African Americans). Within families, higher PGS predicts greater educational attainment, occupational status, and reduced cardiometabolic disease risk, with no evidence for gene-environment interactions or substantial adverse pleiotropy. These findings replicate using a benchmark predictor based on publicly available data, confirming they reflect properties of cognitive genetic architecture rather than idiosyncrasies of a particular score.
I expect results like this will hold up. Here is commentary from GPT Pro.
The post Interpreting Polygenic Prediction of Cognitive Ability appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-07 02:30:48
Wow Nepal, 10728 Fairfax Blvd, Fairfax, VA, 703-880-9898, open 11-9 every day.
The “Wow” here is exactly right, as it is wonderful to have a new great restaurant around. Most Nepalese restaurants in America are variants on north Indian food with batches of half-hearted momos thrown in. This place is the real thing. The goat momos are among the best dishes in northern Virginia right now. The fish is excellent, everything else at least very good. Note that the place is small and fills up early, so arrive in time to get your seat. Strongly recommended.
The post Wow Nepal appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-07 00:18:52
1. Distill your Chinese co-workers? (speculative)
2. Creating artificial gravity in space?
3. Good news for your testicles?
4. The contingencies of the South African economy.
5. AI aggregation and knowledge.
6. The real effects of nominal interest rates.
7. Might Venezuela grow twelve percent this year?
The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-06 19:18:51
The annual Public Choice Outreach Conference is a crash course in public choice. The conference is designed for undergraduates and graduates in a wide variety of fields. It’s entirely free. Indeed scholarships are available! The conference will be held Friday June12- Sunday June 14 , near Washington, DC in Reston, VA. Lots of great speakers including Tyler, myself, Bryan Caplan, Robin Hanson, Jon Klick, Shruti Rajagopalan and more.
Please apply and encourage your students to apply.
The post The Public Choice Outreach Conference! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-06 14:27:19
We study how international migrant income prospects affect long-run development in origin areas. We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis exchange rate shocks in a shift-share identification strategy across Philippine provinces. Initial migrant income shocks are magnified six-fold over time, increasing domestic income, education levels, migrant skills, and high-skilled migration. Remarkably, 74.9 percent of long-run income gains come from domestic rather than migrant income. Trade driven impacts of exchange rate shocks are orthogonal to effects via migrant income. A structural model reveals that 19.7 percent of long-run income gains stem from educational investments. International migration fosters broad economic development in origin communities.
That is from a recent AER piece by Gaurav Khanna, Emir Murathanoglu, Caroline Theoharides, and Dean Yang. Here is a good thread on the piece.
The post Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.