2025-06-24 14:24:45
There are lots of assumptions behind these results, but still it is good to see someone working through some scenarios:
A smaller human population would emit less carbon, other things equal, but how large is the effect? Here we test the widely-shared view that an important benefit of the ongoing, global decline in fertility will be reductions in long-run temperatures. We contrast a baseline of global depopulation (the most likely future) with a counterfactual in which the world population continues to grow for two more centuries. Although the two population paths differ by billions of people in 2200, we find that the implied temperatures would differ by less than one tenth of a degree C—far too small to impact climate goals. Timing drives the result. Depopulation is coming within the 21st century, but not for decades. Fertility shifts take generations to meaningfully change population size, by which time per capita emissions are projected to have significantly declined, even under pessimistic policy assumptions. Meanwhile, a smaller population slows the non-rival innovation that powers improvements in long-run productivity and living standards, an effect we estimate to be quantitatively important. Once the possibility of large-scale net-negative emissions is accounted for, even the sign of the population-temperature link becomes ambiguous. Humans cause greenhouse gas emissions, but human depopulation, starting in a few decades, will not meet today’s climate challenges.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
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2025-06-24 12:48:01
I have not been here since 2019, so here are the trends I am noticing:
1. Vastly more shops are open on Sundays than before.
2. Central Paris continues to evolve into a nearly bilingual city. It is not quite Amsterdam or Stockholm, but getting there. And the Parisians do not seem to mind speaking English.
3. There are more and more non-European restaurants of many kinds. From a walking-by perusal of menus and clienteles, they seem quite good and serious on the whole.
4. It is increasingly difficult to find a gas station in the city (before returning a rental car).
5. An amazingly high percentage of young women have publicly visible tattoos. I do not understand the logic here. I do (partially) understand tattoos as an act of rebellion, differentiation, or counter-signaling. I do not understand tattoos as an act of conformity.
6. Smoking has almost disappeared here. I saw plenty of young people vaping in Reims, but not the same in Paris.
7. Paris now has Rainier cherries in June, a sign of encroaching civiliation.
8. High-quality bookshops, with beautifully displayed titles and covers, still can be found frequently.
9. I had never seen the area near the Bibliotheque National before, it is excellent. I saw this Indian guy in concert there, after o3 recommended that I go.
10. Paris is doing just fine.
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2025-06-24 02:04:17
Germany and Italy hold the world’s second- and third-largest national gold reserves after the US, with reserves of 3,352 tonnes and 2,452 tonnes, respectively, according to World Gold Council data. Both rely heavily on the New York Federal Reserve in Manhattan as a custodian, each storing more than a third of their bullion in the US. Between them, the gold stored in the US has a market value of more than $245bn, according to FT calculations…
“We need to address the question if storing the gold abroad has become more secure and stable over the past decade or not,” Gauweiler told the FT, adding that “the answer to this is self-evident” as geopolitical risk had made the world more insecure.
Here is more from Olaf Storbeck and Amy Kazmin at the FT.
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2025-06-24 00:06:52
1. On the new Xi Zhongxun biography.
2. “This month, four Finnish cities are offering six euros per litre for dead Spanish slugs.”
3. “There are new hints that the fabric of space-time may be made of “memory cells” that record the whole history of the universe.” Speculative.
4. The moratorium on state-level AI regulation has so far survived (contrary to my expectations).
5. Marijuana is associated with higher risk of heart attack and stroke (NYT).
6. The SAT reading section becoming shorter probably is not because of declining attention spans. Here is further explanation from the primary source. I would say the question remains unsettled, as we should not take the College Board at its word. My favored (unconfirmed) hypothesis is that the colleges and universities themselves wish to lower standards to boost enrollment, but without lowering their average SAT scores.
7. Schelling on Iran and nuclear weapons, starting at 4:35. It includes the story of his visit to Iran, to discuss ideas on nuclear deterrence. Whether you agree or not, this is a talk from a very different era. About thirty minutes long. Addendum: Corrected link here.
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2025-06-23 19:17:22
Many Americans believe that their appliances have become less durable and reliable over recent decades. Rachel Wharton at Wirecutter has an excellent piece pushing back. Her conclusions mirror what I found when looking at clothing quality: yes, there has been a modest decline in durability, but the main drivers are customer preferences, regulatory shifts, and Baumol effects—not corporate malfeasance or cultural decline.
“Everybody talks about the Maytag washing machine that lasts 50 years,” said Daniel Conrad, a former product engineer at Whirlpool Corporation who is now the director of design quality, reliability, and testing for a commercial-refrigeration company. “No one talks about the other 4.5 million that didn’t last that long.”
The available evidence suggests that appliance lifespans have decreased only modestly over the past few decades. Recent research from the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers trade group shows that in 2010 most appliances lasted from 11 to 16 years. By 2019, those numbers had dropped, to a range of nine to 14 years. (In some cases, such as for gas ranges and dryers, the lifespans actually increased.)
The modest decline is partially explained by regulation:
Every appliance service technician I spoke to — each with decades of experience repairing machines from multiple brands — immediately blamed federal regulations for water and energy efficiency for most frustrations with modern appliances.
…The main culprit is the set of efficiency standards for water and energy use for all cooking, refrigeration, and cleaning appliances.
The regulations change often and push producers to make changes that consumers don’t necessarily want like switching to lighter plastic parts rather than metal or by adding sophisticated computer controls that increase efficiency but also introduce new break points. See my previous posts on these issues here and here.
But as with clothing, another reason for reduced durability is that many consumers don’t want durable appliances–instead consumers want the latest model with all the whizz-bang features. (Sure, I don’t want this and you don’t want it but heh, they sell!) In other words, appliances and their colors, features and styles have become items of fashion.
And people’s desire for new things only appears to be growing. Petrino Ball said her sales research at AJ Madison showed that today consumers are buying new appliances every eight years, even if what they had before hasn’t fully failed.
…Whitney Welch, a spokesperson for GE Appliances, told me that its research showed consumers are often replacing appliances for aesthetic reasons….
If many customers don’t want to keep appliances for more than 10 years then it doesn’t pay to make them last more than 10 years.
The big story isn’t declining durability but declining price:
In 1972, Sears sold a clothes washer for $220 and a dryer for $90, per 2022 research by AARP Magazine. That’s about $2,389 in 2025, adjusted for inflation. Today you can get a washer-and-dryer pair on sale from Sears for around $1,200.
The Baumol effect means that repair is rising in price relative to buying new which is another reason why we don’t keep products around as long as we did when we were poorer and it it made sense to fix broken goods:
….prices on most new models are so low, his first suggestion to customers is to just replace the appliance. “If the cost of repair is 50% of replacement, throw it cleanly away,” he said. “If it’s 40%, consider the option.”
“Labor is highly skilled,” he added. “It can’t compete with low prices.”
In many cases, it can’t compete with lost time, either. Repairs often require waiting a few days or weeks for parts, said Petrino Ball. “Even one day without a washer-dryer or fridge is really hard for many families,” she said, “but if you buy one, you can have it the next day.”
Moreover, as I argued with clothes, it is possible to find durable appliances if you shop carefully. Interestingly, Wharton notes that you can either go high or low. The top-of-the-line appliances from Sub-Zero and Wolf do last longer but they are very expensive and often do not include whizz-bang features. Alternatively, you can go low–buy a GE or Sears refrigerator and get it without frills–no ice or water dispenser, no electronics, no lux colors and chances are it will last a long time.
In short, appliance durability hasn’t collapsed—it’s evolved to meet consumer demand. We’re not being ripped off. We are getting better products at better prices. Rising incomes have simply redefined what “better” means.
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2025-06-23 13:50:08
Yet, on my first visit to Asunción last week none of that was on my mind. What was striking was the total absence of any aesthetic coherence of the city.
There are some economic reasons for this:
Going back to the middle class consumption point. If only around 300,000 Paraguayans make up the domestic personal income tax base then it’s perhaps not a local middle class that is buying and renting the new modern high rise apartments in Asunción.
Indeed, 70% of the new housing supply are acquired by foreign investors as a capital preservation strategy. They are not bought by locals. These are often investors from Argentina, who according to some data account for 70% of all foreign investors. They buy the apartments and then rent them out? But to who?
Usually foreigners who go to Paraguay for work purposes or new residents who take advantage of Paraguay’s quick and easy residency scheme and citizenship program. And the fun part is that these rental contracts are usually in dollars! Not the local currency (the Guaraní, PYG). Of course, Argentines buy property in Paraguay and prefer to receive dollars in rent.
The entire post is excellent There is also this:
There is a lot more that I could say about Paraguay. Like how the War of the Triple Alliance (1864-1870) resulted in the death of 70% of adult men in Paraguay; giving the country the highest male-mortality proportion ever reliably documented for a nation-state in modern warfare.
I have yet to visit Paraguay, but someday hope to. But should this post induce me to accelerate or delay my timetable?
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