2026-04-12 15:12:43
We examine the economic impact of non-consumable visual cues through home staging on high-stakes housing transactions. Using hand-collected listing photos for 15,777 transactions and a machine-learning algorithm to detect furniture, we provide the first large-scale evidence that staged homes sell for roughly 10% more and one week faster than comparable homes without furniture. Our pre-registered online experiment establishes causality and uncovers mechanisms. We find that furniture clarifies spatial use, while decor enhances emotional attachment, jointly driving the higher willingness-to-pay. These findings demonstrate how visual cues impact high-stakes decisions and systematically shape valuations in the largest asset market for households.
That is from Puja Bhattacharya, et.al., via the excellent Kevin Lewis.
The post Staged homes sell for more than empty homes appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-12 12:21:46
I would not wish to bet on this, but it is an interesting idea:
I wonder if the cyber capabilities of Mythos and future models ultimately lower the returns to ‘hacking,’ perhaps below the point where such efforts are worth investing in.
Say you’re a nefarious actor and uncover a critical, zero-day exploit in an important system. How do you extract the most value from that exploit? There are more valuable and less valuable times to deploy it, and usually the best time won’t be “immediately.” You may only get to deploy it once or a small number of times. You have to consider:
The answer to (1) is now “a much shorter time than before”, while 2 and 3 are mostly unchanged. In the new world, yes, exploits are much easier to find, but the expected value of a given exploit has also shrunk. The odds of an opportune moment falling within the ‘window of usefulness’ of that exploit are much lower. It’s plausible that the new equilibrium becomes “it’s not even worth spending money to find vulnerabilities in most systems, because the chances of being able to do something useful with it before it’s patched is close to zero.”
Much of the fear around cybersecurity vulnerabilities is something like: our adversaries accumulate a pile of highly damaging (to physical infrastructure, military assets, communication systems, …) exploits, which in the event of a conflict they then rapidly deploy to cause damage. Mythos would seem to favor defense here, because the usable lifetime of any exploit is much shorter. Any cyberattack that is timing-dependent now has lower utility.
Yes, there are more mundane cybersecurity concerns like ransomware or data theft, but these aren’t hugely significant in the scheme of things. And I would expect within a few years we’ll have fairly robust tools for automated vulnerability discovery and patching that any large business that cares about these things can deploy.
No doubt this assumes you can trust those in control of the leading-edge models. But even if you’re a bit behind, the situation may not be so bad. There isn’t an infinite supply of exploits, and again, most of them only need to be found ‘fast enough’ in order to mitigate the damage.
From Jacob Gloudemans.
The post Another possible cyberequilibrium? (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-12 03:09:53
renaissance rationalization is a process that commodified itself rapidly: despite the europeans discovering most technology during the early modern period it spread everywhere within a few centuries, and the rate of spread has been increasing dramatically
knowledge of the scientific frontier dissipates around the world faster as science has enabled better communication technologies. it’s getting even faster with INTELLIGENCE technologies which actually explain themselves and help you build them
as we approach more powerful intelligence, the ability to train powerful models is self commodifying rather than building a huge and runaway advantage for a handful of recursive self improvers. this is one reason why you should expect almost all of the benefits of superintelligence to be captured by the public
Here is the tweet. That said, it would be useful to relax constraints on the supply of both energy and land, so that the benefits could diffuse more widely yet.
The post The wisdom of Roon appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-12 00:20:03
1. What is the chance we live inside a black hole?
2. Observations on ambition, though it is sad he does not grasp the value of Jiro.
3. A brief history of lab notebooks.
4. “Hero rat who sniffed out over 100 land mines is honored with giant statue.”
5. The new LACMA (NYT). And Hausa erotica, published on WhatsApp (NYT).
6. Henry Oliver on Buddenbrooks.
7. “Play chess with Yoko Ono.“
The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-11 17:09:20
I think one important point you missed is that South Africa’s recent (and ancient) history has forced the population to work quite aggressively through racial differences at speeds that other developed nations have not. ‘Racial harmony’ would be a stretch, but I would say that most (all?) South African’s have a ‘racial understanding’. South Africa is also very post-racial in the sense that most understand racial differences to actually be cultural differences – for myself, growing up English in Durban, I felt more of a kinship with educated Indians than with the (white) Afrikaners. It would make absolutely no sense from a strictly Western perspective that the English and the Afrikaners (both ‘white’) couldn’t be more different!
Here is my original post.
The post Struan Moffett on South Africa (from my email) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-04-11 12:33:47
I have driven cross-country four times, at least if you count a 3/4 trip as valid. I also have driving experience in virtually all states, including Hawaii and Alaska, neither of which would be part of typical cross-country travel.
I recommend this mode of transport highly, especially for the United States. Here are a few observations:
No matter which route you take, so often Mexican food is your best option.
I most prefer the southern route, involving Memphis, Texas, and southern Utah/north rim of the Grand Canyon. Do I have to tell you no major highways?
The extreme northern route is better than the middle route. Visit Duluth.
The music you bring is essential. While this will depend on your taste, in general try to have some regional music to match your route. Dylan and also folk music sound good in most parts of the country. CDs can be a better medium than online music for these trips. Do not listen to music when you start your day’s drive, however, as you will end up burnt out. Save it for after a few hours of driving. Nor should you listen to too much high energy music. Woody Guthrie is better than Led Zeppelin in this setting.
How much you should roll down car windows, vs. relying on air conditioning, is a critical decision. The correct answer will depend on the route and time of year, but please do not screw this one up. Usually I like windows down, but with raised windows you can hear the music better.
Salads in the Midwest can be good.
In Texas and Oklahoma you may see some amazing storms. Texas is the best state for random food stops.
Use paper maps, GPS may bring you along too efficient a route.
Issues of children aside, optimal group size is two, no larger. To avoid least common denominator effects.
You can do these trips at any pace you want, even an hour in a place can teach you a good deal.
You could do a trip simply by stopping in every interesting place in New Jersey, one of the smallest states.
I prefer Vermont to New Hampshire, at least for driving purposes. I also prefer Montana to Wyoming, the latter for me being beautiful but somehow quite a boring state outside of Yellowstone? You cannot spend too much time in Utah.
Oregon is one state where I never have been driving. Is that a great loss? I know only Portland there.
Driving cross country, or only parts of it, is the very best way to see America.
The post Driving cross-country appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.