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Blog of Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok, both of whom teach at George Mason University.
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Christopher Nolan, Straussian?

2026-05-15 15:54:08

When asked what secondary literature Nolan consulted in working on his epic magnum opus masterpiece, he said none. None save Benardete’s The Bow and the Lyre. “It was my muse” —Christopher Nolan,

, April 2026.

Here is the link.

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One way to benefit adolescents

2026-05-15 12:27:25

Have school start later:

We examine the impact of California’s Senate Bill 328 (SB 328), the first statewide mandate requiring later school start times for middle and high schools, on adolescent sleep, mental health, and academic outcomes. Using difference-in-differences and eventstudy designs across five data sources, we find that SB 328 increased the share of students sleeping at least 8 hours per night by 13%, meeting the CDC-recommended minimum for this age group. Average mental health effects are imprecisely estimated, but boys show significant reductions in sadness, hopelessness, and suicidal ideation, and Hispanic students, who experienced the largest sleep-timing shifts, show parallel reductions in difficulty concentrating; together these patterns are consistent with a dose-response relationship between sleep improvement and mental well-being. Math and English scores in grade 8 improved by approximately 0.08–0.10 standard deviations, with the largest gains among Hispanic and economically disadvantaged students. A within-state analysis using teachers’ commute arrival times as a proxy for pre-policy school start times corroborates these findings, and shows academic gains accumulating over 2023–2025 alongside a suggestive decline in high school dropout rates. The absence of effects on chronic absenteeism rules out an attendance-driven mechanism, pointing instead to the direct cognitive benefits of aligning school schedules with adolescents’ biological rhythms.

That is from a new NBER working paper by Jialu (Gloria) Dou, Rania Gihleb, Osea Giuntella & Jakub Lonsky.

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Meta-papers in science (from my email)

2026-05-15 02:41:38

From Brennan Plaetzer:

Hi Tyler,

Your post yesterday argued AI will replace papers with meta-papers that synthesize, re-run, and extend prior work. I built one in oncology last month, before reading your post.

I ran my friend Omar Abdel-Wahab’s (MSK) last ten papers through an AI synthesis layer. This came out on top: an integrated, falsifiable hypothesis bridging two of his 2025 papers, one in Cancer Cell on a refractory MEK1 mutation, one in Cell on splicing-derived neoantigens. It comes with seven testable experiments his lab can run today. The move generalizes to any field: surface the questions hidden in plain view, the ones the source papers could answer with their own data but never asked.

https://page56capital.com/writings/cross-paper-synthesis

The “box” you described already exists in biology. It just doesn’t have a name there yet.

Brennan

Note that if you, in the future, do not do this kind of thing yourself, someone else, or their AI agent, will do it for you.  Solve for the equilibrium!

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MIT fact of the day

2026-05-15 00:50:19

Outside of Sloan and the EECS MEng program, still in the midst of admissions, compared with 2024, our departments’ new enrollments for next year are down close to 20%.

That means that, in total, outside of Sloan, we could have about 500 fewer graduate students. Which means we’ll have many fewer students advancing the work of MIT, and undergraduates will have fewer grad students as mentors in their research.

That is from the president of MIT in a recent speech.  It is time to put aside denial about the tsunami coming for higher education.

The post MIT fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

How Much Has Shale Gas Saved U.S. Consumers?

2026-05-14 19:17:32

Every US president since Nixon has called for freeing the US from ‘dependence on foreign oil’ (within ten years!). Every president has failed. Fracking, however, has delivered the goods. Fracking has reduced the price of energy, reduced net emissions of greenhouse gases and turned the US into an energy exporter.

In How Much Has Shale Gas Saved U.S. Consumers? Lucas Davis compare LNG prices in the US ($5.3 Mcf), Europe ($14.4 Mcf) and Japan ($16.1 Mcf) to offer some plausible back of the envelope calculations:

Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling caused U.S. natural gas production to increase significantly, and the U.S. went from being a net importer of natural gas to being the world’s largest exporter. This paper calculates how much shale gas has saved U.S. natural gas consumers. Using price differences between the United States, Europe and Japan, we calculate that U.S. natural gas consumers have saved $4.5-$5.3 trillion between 2007 and 2025, equivalent to $237-$276 billion annually. Access to low-price U.S. natural gas has been particularly valuable during major supply shocks such as the war in Ukraine, and the benefits of shale gas have been experienced broadly across sectors and states.

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