2026-04-19 12:29:29
The subtitle of the paper is Puzzles, Patterns, and Possible Causes. Here is the abstract:
China’s large current account surplus has been an irritant to its trading partners. While industrial and trade policies often lead to sector-level imbalances, they play a relatively limited role in the economy-wide surplus. Structural factors such as an unbalanced sex ratio and uneven access to financing by state-owned and non-state firms are more important determinants of the current account imbalance. While macroeconomic stimulus can boost imports and reduce the surplus in the short run, any long-term solution would need to involve reforms aiming at addressing the structural problems.
By . I think not everyone will be persuaded, but the paper has numerous points of interest, including on the quality of the data. On the gender imbalance, the authors write this:
As the marriage market becomes increasingly competitive for young men, parents with a son raise their savings to improve their son’s relative standing in the relative market. At the same time, parents with a daughters face conflicting incentives on savings. On the one hand, they can reduce their savings to take advantage of the increased probability of marriage of their daughters. On the other hand, they may wish to raise their savings to preserve their daughters’ bargaining power within marriage…In the data, Wei and Zhang find strong evidence that a combination of having a son at home and living in a region with a skewed sex ratio greatly pushes up the household savings rate.
And on state-owned firms:
Since the banking system favors state-owned firms, many non-state-owned but highproductivity firms have difficulty with access to finance and therefore save for their own investment. This leads to a higher level of corporate savings.
Those points make sense to me, but perhaps industrial policy matters too because so many Chinese laborers have been underemployed, due to their (earlier) rural locations, thus limiting the applicability of Lerner Symmetry?
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2026-04-19 03:00:35
The 1941 Anglo-Soviet invasion destroyed Reza Shah — but not the Pahlavi state. The two Allies — joined by the United States in December 1941 — realized that the Iranian state could be useful in achieving the two goals for which they had invaded the country: physical control over oil — the British nightmare in World War II, even more so than in World War I, was loss of these vital supplies: and a land “corridor” to the Soviet Union…To facilitate the flow of both oil to Britain and supplies to the Soviet Union, the Allies found it expedient to remove Reza Shah but to preserve his state…the Allies kept his state but engineered his removal in part to curry much-needed favor among Iranians. “The Persians,” he wrote, “expect that we should at least save them from the Shah’s tyranny as compensation for invading their country.”
That is from Ervand Abrahamian’s A History of Modern Iran.
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2026-04-19 00:44:44
1. Cato Handbook on affordability.
2. Are first-generation college students overrated?
3. No Detectable Economic Effect of Extreme Heat After Correcting for Dependence. Here is analysis from Claude 4.7, link now fixed.
5. AI and the early history of electricity. Good claims.
6. Betting on how well various pundits predict the future.
7. On Jensen.
8. Ross Douthat (NYT) on lessons from Hungary.
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2026-04-18 23:43:44
What is the best and most sophisticated defense of architectural modernism, both from an aesthetic and a social point of view?
I thank you all in advance for your wisdom.
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2026-04-18 15:12:34
This paper studies the impact of birthright citizenship on youth crime. We leverage a German reform which automatically granted birthright citizenship to eligible immigrant children born in Germany after January 1, 2000 and administrative crime data from three federal states. We find that immigrant youth who acquired citizenship at birth are substantially less likely to engage in criminal activity, with estimates indicating a 70% reduction in crime. These results are particularly relevant in light of ongoing debates in the U.S. about abolishing birthright citizenship. Our findings suggest that inclusive citizenship policies can reduce crime and its associated costs, which in turn could strengthen social cohesion.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
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2026-04-18 12:11:42
Roumak Das, a grade 11 student from West Bengal, and Samik Goyal, a 12th grader from Patiala, received their grants to travel to the International Olympiad in Artificial Intelligence 2025 in Beijing, where Roumak won a gold medal and Samik a silver medal. Roumak’s grant also supports his college applications, and Samik’s grant supports SPOI, dedicated to teaching informatics to school students.
Ishaan Gangwani, 17, received his grant to develop InkVell, an AI-native LaTeX editor, and to support his travel to the International Olympiad in Artificial Intelligence 2025 in Beijing.
Ronald Abraham received a career development grant for Veeraa, to build a crowdfunding and growth platform for India’s community leaders.
Tristan Wagner received his grant to explore low-cost autoinjectors for treating anaphylaxis and snakebite envenoming in India.
Michael Grasa received his grant to test a transparent, falsifiability-first approach to decoding the Indus Valley script, releasing versioned overlays and open datasets for replication or refutation.
Jasraj Budigam, 16, received his grant to develop CapNav-Lite, an adaptive AI navigation system that personalizes power-wheelchair control to each user within minutes on everyday hardware.
Mannat Kaur, 17, freshman at Stanford University, received her grant to continue developing research on wastewater recycling and its integration into the built environment and low-carbon housing.
Vineela Upadhyayula, Hari Krishna Upadhyayula, and Phani Madhav Upadhyayula received their grant for NeuraEase, to build a wearable-driven AI detection and management of acute dysregulation events in neurodivergence and neurological disorders, including autistic meltdowns.
Arnav Kumar and Gavneesh, cofounders of Vyobha Aerospace, received their grant to build regional eVTOL aircraft with fractional ownership at the cost of a car.
Aditya Raj Chopra, a high school senior, received a general career development grant.
Ansh Mishra, 17, received his grant to build reliable and accessible bionic prosthetic hands.
Vasu Dubey, 22, received his grant to build a machine-learning-based medical device for speech restoration in laryngectomy patients.
Snehadeep Kumar, 21, received his grant for Nebula Space Organisation, to build ultra-low-cost Earth-imaging CubeSats and a global imagery platform that makes space data accessible to everyone.
Uttam Singh and Ayush Das received their grant for Nakshatra Maps, to help people navigate indoor and outdoor public spaces with dynamic hyperlocal interactive maps, AR navigation, and smart emergency evacuation.
Mankaran Singh received his grant to build frictionless human-robot interaction for machines operating in human-centric environments.
Sommaiya Angrish, 21, an alt Hindi-pop musician, received his grant to work on his third album, rooted in his personal healing journey.
Achyut Tiwari, 24, received his grant for GeoLiquefy, an AI system forecasting earthquake-related soil liquefaction from geotechnical data for engineers, insurers, and risk assessors.
Devayan Das, 19, a biotech undergraduate, received his grant to develop dissolvable tissue culture nutrient blocks that simplify lab workflows and turn lab prep into a plug-and-play process.
Ayush Kale, a materials engineer, received his grant for EarthSprint Solutions, to transform agricultural waste into low-carbon, high-performance cement blocks.
Mohd Fahad Eqbal, 24, received his grant for Chakraswap, to scale an affordable battery swap network for e-rickshaw drivers.
Satyamedh Hulyalkar received his grant to develop a LoRa-based self-healing mesh network for agricultural and monitoring use cases.
Shivam Parashar received his grant for GreenScore, to build an industrial effluent monitoring system combining machine learning and IoT to keep Indian rivers clean.
Anand Unni received his grant for Nayaneethi Policy Collective, to develop a public policy curriculum and a community of public policy thinkers and analysts in Kerala, and strengthen the demand side of public policy.
Those unfamiliar with Emergent Ventures can learn more here and here. The EV India announcement is here. More about the winners of EV India second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth cohorts. To apply for EV India, use the EV application, click the “Apply Now” button and select India from the “My Project Will Affect” drop-down menu.
And here is Nabeel’s AI engine for other EV winners. Here are the other EV cohorts.
If you are interested in supporting the India tranche of Emergent Ventures, please write to me or to Shruti at [email protected].
TC: This post is from Shruti, and I thank her for her amazing work on this!
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