2026-03-29 14:50:31
1. Building political superintelligence?
2. Joshua Gans defends Topkis.
3. Dash Crofts, RIP (NYT).
4. NBA proposals to limit marginal tanking incentives.
5. Can Jim O’Neill improve the NSF?
6. Is grass-fed beef disappearing in Argentina?
7. Is marginalism a Rank 4 idea?
8. On the study of Bengali sweets.
The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-29 13:01:46
He is currently serving as the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, and also is the co-author of the books Economics of Derivatives and The Rise of Finance: Causes, Consequences and Cures. The podcast covers import substitution and strategic resilience, futures and options market, gross fixed capital formation, crypto markets, India’s growth trajectory, and much more.
Here is the audio and video on YouTube. Here is a linked transcript. Excerpt:
RAJAGOPALAN: The policy response to this has come in a couple of different ways. One has come through SEBI. It has started raising contract sizes and limiting weekly expiration,and so on. Another instrument has come through taxation. There have been STT [Securities Transactions Tax] hikes in consecutive budgets,but there is one thing about STT that I want to understand a little bit better from someone like you who has thought about this deeply.
Now, STT on futures is being levied on the notional value of the contract, which is the full traded price, whereas the STT on the options is levied on the premium, which is a small fraction of the overall underlying value of the notional exposure. The effective tax that is imposed is much more on the futures trade, manyfold more actually, than it is on the options trade, whereas the speculation is mostly happening on the options side, which is also where most of the retail investors are losing money because the futures side is much better capitalized, larger firms, and so on.
NAGESWARAN: No, also the futures side is probably used more by institutions, and therefore, they are able to put up the margin requirement, etc., better than the options trades, where the individuals are being sold almost like the₹10 sachet-type options, and the options…
RAJAGOPALAN: Exactly, sachetization options, absolutely.
NAGESWARAN: Yes. Go ahead.
RAJAGOPALAN: Now with each successive hike in the STT,we’re seeing the gap widen. It’s on the margin, making futures relatively more expensive than options just because it’s taxing each trade. It’s like a toll fee that’s paid almost on every transaction. Your book was precisely about understanding these kinds of policy instruments. Given that now we have a tax instrument which inadvertently favors the more speculative instrument. Is that a good way of thinking about it, or how would you think about this problem?
NAGESWARAN: No, I think you have given me a lot to think about on this. I probably haven’t applied my mind as much to the mechanics of the STT being levied on the premium when it comes to options, but on the notional value of the contract when it comes to futures. Actually, you have given me something to think about. As you said, it could be having the unintended consequence of reducing the hedging role of futures, which probably is playing a better role there and encouraging the speculative element. Let me think about it and also probably take back this aspect of the conversation back to my colleagues in the revenue department, in the Ministry of Finance. Thank you for that, yes.
Of great importance for the world’s most populous country.
The post Shruti interviews V. Anantha Nageswaran on the Indian economy appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-29 01:20:02
Online dating apps have transformed the dating market, yet their broader effects remain unclear. We study Tinder’s impact on college students using its initial marketing focus on Greek organizations for identification. We show that the full-scale launch of Tinder led to a sharp, persistent increase in sexual activity, but with little corresponding impact on the formation of long-term relationships or relationship quality. Dating outcome inequality, especially among men, rose, alongside rates of sexual assault and STDs. However, despite these changes, Tinder’s introduction did not worsen students’ mental health on average and may have even led to improvements for female students.
That is from a new paper published in AEJ: Applied Economics, by Berkeren Büyükeren, Alexey Makarin, and Heyu Xiong.
The post Is Tinder actually OK? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-29 00:03:51
3. “The gesture establishes a hierarchy in which Tyler Cowen determines the hierarchy.”
4. How the spreadsheeet reshaped America.
5. What works of literature were written by the elderly?
6. The Anglosphere is ahead on AI adoption.
9. Austin Vernon on Hormuz and its resolution through economic means.
The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-28 15:04:59
That does not mean it is good! From Jeffrey M. Stonecash:
Congress is portrayed as compliant with President Donald J. Trump’s agenda because he is intimidating its members. This neglects an alternative explanation that focuses on the increased congruence of presidential and congressional electoral bases. Trump is the beneficiary of a geographical realignment that took decades and has created a high degree of overlap of the two bases. This analysis tracks that process from 1952 to 2024. It has produced a situation in which policy concerns overlap and encourage congressional compliance.
The post Republican Congressional deference to Trump is in fact democratic appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-28 12:51:14
Dean ball has some thoughts and hesitations:
Here are some questions I wish “Pause” and “Stop” advocates would address:
1. Assuming we achieve the desired policy goal through a bilateral US/China agreement, what would be the specific metric or objective we would say needs to be satisfied in advance? Who decides whether we have satisfied them? What if one one party believes we have satisfied them but the other does not?
2. If the goal is achieved through a bilateral US/China agreement, would we need capital controls to ensure that U.S. investors cannot fund semiconductor fabs, data centers, or AI research labs in countries other than the U.S. and China?
3. Would we need to revoke the passports of U.S.-based AI researchers and semiconductor engineers to prevent them leaving America to join AI-related ventures elsewhere? How else would the U.S. and China keep researchers within their borders?
4. How should we grapple with the fact that (2) and (3) are common features of autocratic regimes?
5. Do the above questions mean that this really should be a global agreement, signed by all countries on Earth, or at least those with the theoretical ability to host large-scale data centers (probably Vanuatu doesn’t need to be on board)?
The post A bilateral AI pause? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.