2026-01-29 01:07:46
1. Some Kevin Grier biohistory (for the bots?).
2. Andrej.
3. Joshua Rothman on the new Knausgaard cycle (New Yorker).
4. New Substack and podcast Ideas in Development.
6. Art De Vany, RIP.
7. “Indische Beschäftigte verdienen weiterhin am meisten.” Indian migrants are now the number one earners in Germany.
8. Brad Setser with the case for relative optimism about Japan, the balance sheet of course.
9. Further China rumors, and I do stress the word rumors. If nothing else, a good example of why foreign policy is difficult.
10. More economics comedy in NYC.
The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-28 17:32:01
I know I rail a lot about all the flavors of AI copium but I do empathize.
A few companies are making machines smarter in most ways than humans, and they are going to succeed. The cope is byproduct of an especially immature grieving stage, but all of us are early in our grief.
Link here. You can understand so much of the media these days, or for that matter MR comments, if you keep this simple observation in mind. It is essential for understanding the words around you, and one’s reactions also reveal at least one part of the true inner self. I have never seen the Western world in this position before, so yes it is difficult to believe and internalize. But believe and internalize it you must.
Politics is another reason why some people are reluctant to admit this reality. Moving forward, the two biggest questions are likely to be “how do we deal with AI?”, and also some rather difficult to analyze issues surrounding major international conflicts. A lot of the rest will seem trivial, and so much of today’s partisan puffery will not age well, even if a person is correct on the issues they are emphasizing. The two biggest and most important questions do not fit into standard ideological categories. Yes, the Guelphs vs. the Ghibellines really did matter…until it did not.
The post Dean Ball speaks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-28 13:30:27
I recent wrote about driving around New Zealand, but I lived in Wellington. Here are a few of my impressions:
1. It is one of the world’s most beautiful cities, top five easily. The best view is from Mount Victoria, incredible vistas are everywhere, and the Victorian homes are very nice too. Very little of it is downright ugly.
2. I do not love either steep inclines or wind. So in those regards Wellington was less than ideal for me. Think of the basic weather as like that of San Francisco. I preferred the warmer climes of Auckland.
3. In the early 90s, the city did not have excellent Chinese food. But Malaysian and Burmese alternatives made up for that. Bistro food, in nouvelle New Zealand styles, was very good.
4. Most of the best fish and chips was outside city limits, for instance in nearby Newtown. There was one good local fish and chips shop near Parliament.
5. The major government buildings were remarkably close together, does any other capital city in the world have this? You could just walk from one meeting to another in a small number of minutes.
6. I was very much an outsider there, but if I went to a classical music concert it was remarkable how many of the attendees I would recognize.
7. There was not much of an internet to speak of back then, keep that in mind when processing these remarks. When the Fischer-Spassky match #2 was being played in Yugoslavia, I relied on the movves of the games being faxed to me. The Kiwi newspapers just were not that good or that timely. Phone calls were expensive too, and the mail was slow.
8. The biggest/best bookstore in town, on Lambton Quay, had a quality feel but still a pretty limited selection and a general lack of timeliness. Fortunately, the library of Victoria University was pretty good. I spent much of that period of my life reading books about the Italian Renaissance and eighteenth century England.
9. My overall feeling was that Wellington residents were pretty happy and had a high quality of life. If nothing else, you could just drive around the bays and have, within minutes, a quality “vacation” better than almost anywhere else in the world. That said, it was not the best place for very ambitious people, most of all for reasons of size and distance.
10, I found the small wooden church in Wellington — Old St. Paul’s — to be one of the nicest and most moving religious structures I have seen.
11. I forget the name of the place, but the main area supermarket was the very best I ever have enjoyed. It offered superb seafood (good luck finding that in the U.S.), first-rate lamb, a suitable array of spices and Asian condiments, and amazing fruits and vegetables across the board and also in most seasons. Very good chocolate, and also ice cream. And all at very good prices and low hassle.
12. Often I was expected to work on something, or to give advice, “simply because I was there.” We again return to the importance of no real internet. I sometimes think of that time as my “beginning as a blogger,” though of course there was no such thing. The deadline always was “now,” and the relevant standards were comparative. Good luck!
13. If you ever got tired of Wellington, you could just go drive around the rest of New Zealand, though that did not remove any of the frustrations (e.g., small book shops) that one had with Wellington. Nearby, Lower Hutt has some good Art Deco structures.
14. Overall, one could learn a lot there very, very quickly, and that automatically made it great.
The post Wellington, New Zealand appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-28 01:10:12
1. Apply for Mercatus Emerging Scholars program.
2. A simple summary of some mainstream views on social media.
4. Using Gemini to draft DOT regulations.
5. Sly Dunbar, RIP. Here is one dub cut.
6. Strauss on AI. And AI and quant labs (FT).
7. Travels in the Horn of Africa.
8. Luke Burgis.
9. Economist John Roberts, RIP.
The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-28 00:02:52
This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
The post Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-27 20:54:25
This study explores the psychological profiles of elite soccer players, revealing that success on the field goes beyond physical ability. By analyzing a sample of 328 participants, including 204 elite soccer players from the top teams in Brazil and Sweden, we found that elite players have exceptional cognitive abilities, including improved planning, memory, and decision-making skills. They also possess personality traits like high conscientiousness and openness to experience, along with reduced neuroticism. Using AI, we identified unique psychological patterns that could help in talent identification and development. These insights can be used to better understand the mental attributes that contribute to success in soccer and other high-performance fields.
That is from a new paper by Leonardo Bonetti, et.al., via Yureed Elahi.
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