2026-03-17 21:44:57
1. “Absolutely astounding figures from the NY state comptroller: spending on services for the NYC street homeless population ran to $81,705 per person last year, up from $28,428 pp 6yrs ago. Figures do not include all kinds of other spending, supportive housing, policing costs etc.” Link here.
2. Backlash against The Giving Pledge (NYT).
3. Poor weather when touring a college campus reduces a student’s chance of applying.
4. Where do AI agents settle their payments?
5. Even Nevada never had that much of a real estate bubble?
6. Prediction markets turn many people into unwilling referees. Good and interesting piece.
7. GPT Pro on the value of introspection. “The literature does not really say “successful people are introspective.” It says: successful people are better at turning reflection into accurate self-insight, external calibration, and better next actions.”
NB: The passing of Coetzee is now not confirmed.
The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-17 15:01:49
That is the topic of my latest column for The Free Press, here is the closing tag:
The biggest risk is not from the AI companies, but rather that the government with the most powerful AI systems becomes the bad guy itself. The U.S., on the world stage, is not always a force for good, and we might become worse to the extent we can act without constraint. The Vietnam War is perhaps the least politically controversial way of demonstrating that point.
So today we need an odd and complex mix of not entirely consistent ideologies for the current arms race to go well. How about some tech accelerationism mixed with capitalism, and then a prudent technocratic approach to military procurement, to make sure those advances serve national security ends? On the precautionary side, we need a dash of the 1960s and ’70s New Left and libertarian anti-war ideologies, skeptical of Uncle Sam himself. We do not want to become the bad guys.
Do you think we can pull that off? The new American challenge is underway.
Worth a ponder.
The post The AI arms race appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-17 12:57:28
Average grades continue to rise in the United States, raising the question of how grade inflation impacts students. We provide comprehensive evidence on how teacher grading practices affect students’ long-run success. Using administrative high school data from Los Angeles and from Maryland that is linked to postsecondary and earnings records, we develop and validate two teacher-level measures of grade inflation: one measuring average grade inflation and another measuring a teacher’s propensity to give a passing grade. These measures of grade inflation are distinct from teacher value-added, with grade inflating teachers having moderately lower cognitive value-added and slightly higher noncognitive value-added. These twomeasuresalso differentially impact students’ long-term outcomes. Being assigned a higher average grade inflating teacher reduces a student’s future test scores, the likelihood of graduating from high school, college enrollment, and ultimately earnings. In contrast, passing grade inflation reduces the likelihood of being held back and increases high school graduation, with limited long-run effects. The cumulative impact is economically significant: a teacher with one standard deviation higher average grade inflation reduces the present discounted value of lifetime earnings of their students by $213,872 per year.
That is from a recent paper by Jeffrey T. Denning, Rachel Nesbit, Nolan Pope, and Merrill Warnick. Via Séb Krier.
The post Claims about grade inflation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-17 02:15:17
The most controversial of the forced removals occurred in the second half of the 1960s, with the expulsion of 65,000 coloureds from District Six, a vibrant inner-city ward of Cape Town, where whites, many of the slumlords, owned 56% of the property. Against their will, District Six residents were moved out to the sandy townships of the Cape Flats. In Johannesburg, the inner-city suburb of Sophiatown, where blacks could own freehold property, was another notorious site of forced removals. Often long-established community institutions such as churches and schools had to be abandoned.
That is from the very good book by Hermann Giliomee The Afrikaners: A Concise History.
The post The hyper-NIMBY of earlier Cape Town and South Africa appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-17 00:10:03
2. Germany attacking free speech.
4. What do robot demos and videos show?
5. How WWI damaged British innovation?
6. Social media is more of a habit than an addiction.
7. The rise of popcorn at the movies (WSJ).
The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-03-16 19:25:05
Matt Yglesias has a good post on the UK’s Triple Lock, which requires that UK pensions rise in line with whichever is highest: wages, inflation, or 2.5 percent. Luis Garicano calls this “the single stupidest policy in the entire Western world” — and I’d be inclined to agree, if only the competition weren’t so fierce.
The triple lock guarantees that pensioner incomes grow at the expense of everything else, and the mechanism bites hardest when the economy is weakest. During the 2009 financial crisis wages fell and inflation declined, for example, yet pensioner incomes rose by 2.5 percent! (Technically this was under a double-lock period; the triple lock came slightly later — as if the lesson from the crisis was that the guarantee hadn’t been generous enough.)
Now, as Yglesias notes, if voters were actually happy with pensioner income growing at the expense of worker income, that would be one thing. But no one seems happy with the result. The same pattern is clear in the United States:
As I wrote in January, there is a pattern in American politics where per capita benefits for elderly people have gotten consistently more generous in the 21st century even as the ratio of retired people to working-age people has risen.
This keeps happening because it’s evidently what the voters want. Making public policy more generous to senior citizens enjoys both broad support among the mass public and it’s something that elites in the two parties find acceptable even if neither side is particularly enthusiastic about it. But what makes it a dark pattern in my view is that voters seem incredibly grumpy about the results.
Nobody’s saying things have been going great in America over the past quarter century.
Instead, the right is obsessed with the idea that mysterious forces of fraud have run off with all the money, while the left has convinced itself that billionaires aren’t paying any taxes.
But it’s not some huge secret why it seems like the government keeps spending and spending without us getting any amazing new public services — it’s transfers to the elderly.
The contradictions of “Elderism” are an example of rational irrationality. Individual voters bears essentially no cost for holding inconsistent political beliefs — wanting generous pensions and robust public services and low taxes is essentially free, since no single vote determines the outcome. The irrationality is individually rational and collectively ruinous. Voters are not necessarily confused about what they want; they simply face no price for wanting incompatible things. Arrow’s impossibility theorem adds another layer: even if each voter held perfectly coherent preferences, there is no reliable procedure for aggregating them into a coherent social choice. The grumpiness Yglesias documents may not reflect hypocrisy so much as the incoherence of demanding that collective choice makes sense — collective choice cannot be rationalized by coherent preferences and thus it’s perfectly possible that democracy can simultaneously “choose” generous pensions and “demand” better services for workers, with no mechanism to register the contradiction until the bill arrives.
The post Understanding Demonic Policies appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.