2026-01-30 03:20:58
For instance: did you know that daily social media use increases the likelihood a child will commit suicide by 12-18%? Or that teenagers are far more likely to visit the ER for psychiatric problems if they have an Instagram account? Or that a child’s amount of social media use, past a certain threshold, correlates exponentially with poorer sleep, lower reported wellbeing, and more severe mental health symptoms?
If that was all true for social media— and again, none of it is — you and I both would agree that people under 16 or so should not have access to platforms like Instagram or Snapchat. Imagine allowing your child to enter any system that would make them 12-18% more likely to kill themselves. That would be insane. You wouldn’t let your kid anywhere near that system, and the public would protest until it was eliminated once for all.
Great. So let’s get rid of school.
Yes, there’s the obvious twist — all the data I just listed is true for the effects of school. The modern education system is probably the single biggest threat to the mental health of children. At the very least, the evidence for its negative effects is unambiguous: the same cannot be said for social media…
From 1990-2019, suicide rates among young people have always dropped precipitously during the summers and spiked again in September. Adults show no such trend…
Beyond these clinical statistics, there’s also the simple fact that kids say they find school more stressful than pretty much anything else in their life.
Here is much more from Eli Stark-Elster, interesting throughout.
The post Is school worse for your kids than social media? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-30 00:59:40
1. “And what this implies is rather striking, and rarely discussed by those outside of public health: that among their many purposes and benefits, vaccines have served now for decades as a kind of substitute health safety net in America.” (NYT)
4. Jon Hartley on John Roberts.
5. Penguin population by country.
6. Sly Dunbar obituary (NYT).
7. How commerce affected culture, by Soumaya Keynes (FT).
The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-29 17:51:17
We document and characterize a new history of U.S. federal-level industrial policies by scanning all 12,167 Congressional Acts and 6,030 Presidential Orders from 1973 through 2022. We find several interesting patterns. First, contrary to a common perception, the United States has always been an active industrial policy nation throughout the period, regardless of which party is in power, with 5.4 laws and 3.4 Presidential Orders per year on average containing new industrial policies. Second, we identify roughly 300% more instances of industrial policies than those in the Global Trade Alert (GTA) database during 2008-2022, despite using essentially the same definition. Third, industrial policies in practice are as likely to be justified by national security as by economic competitiveness. Fourth, many U.S. industrial policies incorporate design features that help mitigate potential drawbacks, such as explicit expiration dates and pilot programs for emerging technologies. Finally, based on stock market reactions and firm performance, the identified policies are recognized as economically significant in shifting resource allocations.
That is from a new NBER working paper by
So if I were designing an “industrial policy” for America, my first priority would be to improve and “unstick” its procurement cycles. There may well be bureaucratic reasons that this is difficult to do. But if it can’t be done, then perhaps the U.S. shouldn’t be setting its sights on a more ambitious industrial policy.
A second form of American industrial policy is the biomedical grants and subsidies associated with the National Institutes of Health.
Published in 2019, but still relevant today.
The post The United States as an Active Industrial Policy Nation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-29 13:40:36
That is the title of my latest Free Press piece. Here is one excerpt:
Religious knowledge has become easy to access with as much detail as you might wish. You can learn about Vatican II or the Talmud ad infinitum. But it may mean something different to practitioners when it does not come from another human. An AI can write a sermon; in fact, if some confessional accounts can be believed, a majority of sermons are now at least co-authored with AI. But can it deliver that sermon and move worshippers to go out and do good works? With where things stand now, I doubt it.
One possible scenario is that our religions, at least as we experience them in person, become more charismatic, more heart-pumping, and more thrilling. We will want more and more of the uniquely human element, and to hold the attention of their audiences, churches will provide it. If so, AI will be riding a trend that we already see in the U.S., as older mainline denominations have ceded ground to evangelical ones.
That will not please everyone, and those looking for “information” from their religions may turn away from collective worship and spend more time with AI. We may be entering a “barbells” world where religious experience is either a) much more solo, but with AIs, or b) more immediate and ecstatic, with other human beings.
And this:
The ancient worlds of Greece and Rome had plenty of oracles, as did late antique Christianity, so an oracle-rich religious era is hardly impossible. It does not require the AIs to invent a new belief system out of whole cloth, but just to slowly morph from being good advisers into holding more spiritual significance for us.
There are further points at the link.
The post “Can AI help us find God?” appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-29 01:07:46
1. Some Kevin Grier biohistory (for the bots?).
2. Andrej.
3. Joshua Rothman on the new Knausgaard cycle (New Yorker).
4. New Substack and podcast Ideas in Development.
6. Art De Vany, RIP.
7. “Indische Beschäftigte verdienen weiterhin am meisten.” Indian migrants are now the number one earners in Germany.
8. Brad Setser with the case for relative optimism about Japan, the balance sheet of course.
9. Further China rumors, and I do stress the word rumors. If nothing else, a good example of why foreign policy is difficult.
10. More economics comedy in NYC.
The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-28 17:32:01
I know I rail a lot about all the flavors of AI copium but I do empathize.
A few companies are making machines smarter in most ways than humans, and they are going to succeed. The cope is byproduct of an especially immature grieving stage, but all of us are early in our grief.
Link here. You can understand so much of the media these days, or for that matter MR comments, if you keep this simple observation in mind. It is essential for understanding the words around you, and one’s reactions also reveal at least one part of the true inner self. I have never seen the Western world in this position before, so yes it is difficult to believe and internalize. But believe and internalize it you must.
Politics is another reason why some people are reluctant to admit this reality. Moving forward, the two biggest questions are likely to be “how do we deal with AI?”, and also some rather difficult to analyze issues surrounding major international conflicts. A lot of the rest will seem trivial, and so much of today’s partisan puffery will not age well, even if a person is correct on the issues they are emphasizing. The two biggest and most important questions do not fit into standard ideological categories. Yes, the Guelphs vs. the Ghibellines really did matter…until it did not.
The post Dean Ball speaks appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.