2026-01-14 02:51:35
Social Security also got quietly more generous during this period. Each year, the Social Security Administration compares the C.P.I.-W (the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners) for the third quarter to the third quarter of the previous year and, if needed, adjusts benefits upward to compensate for inflation. There happen to have been three years during Obama’s presidency — 2009, 2010, and 2015 — when the mathematically correct cost-of-living adjustment would have been negative. What actually happens in this case is that seniors get zero cost-of-living adjustment, which means that, in real terms, benefits ratcheted upward.
Then during the Biden administration, Congress ended up passing the Social Security Fairness Act, which increased Social Security benefits for a disproportionately affluent set of retirees with access to other pensions with very little fanfare. This happened via a hugely bipartisan vote, so even organizations that were critical of the idea when it was first proposed were mostly silent as it actually happened. Then during the 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump proposed “no tax on Social Security,” which is really just a way of making Social Security benefits mildly more generous for high-income seniors.
That is from Matt Yglesias. It would be amazing if we got away with all of this!
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2026-01-14 00:45:23
1. Pre-history of progress studies and links.
2. Do institutional investors raise housing prices?
3. Alex Sarr leads the NBA in blocks.
4. History LLMs.
5. The new Middle Eastern Cold War. Likely to be one of the better and most important of essays from this year.
6. What did Mondrian borrow from Marlow Moss?
The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-13 23:03:49
Liv is great at this, here is the Spotify link. Note this was recorded in May 2025, and its release postponed due to technical difficulties. So if a few parts seem “behind the times,” that is why. ” Tyler also shares his views on economic growth, UBI, automation, persuasion, state capacity, why fears of mass unemployment and civilizational collapse are often overstated.”
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2026-01-13 15:59:48
Next, we consider the effects of grade inflation on future outcomes. Passing grade inflation reduces the likelihood of being held back, increases high school graduation, and increases initial enrollment in two-year colleges. Mean grade inflation reduces future test scores, reduces the likelihood of graduating from high school, reduces college enrollment, and ultimately reduces earnings.
Here is the full paper by Jeffrey T. Denning, Rachel Nesbit, Nolan Pope, and Merrill Warnick. Via Kris Gulati.
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2026-01-13 13:25:24
This paper derives “Scaling Laws for Economic Impacts”- empirical relationships between the training compute of Large Language Models (LLMs) and professional productivity. In a preregistered experiment, over 500 consultants, data analysts, and managers completed professional tasks using one of 13 LLMs. We find that each year of model progress reduced task time by 8%, with 56% of gains driven by increased compute and 44% by algorithmic progress. However, productivity gains were significantly larger for non-agentic analytical tasks compared to agentic workflows requiring tool use. These findings suggest continued model scaling could boost U.S. productivity by approximately 20% over the next decade.
That is from Ali Merali of Yale University.
The post Claims about AI productivity improvements appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
2026-01-13 04:29:09
By one estimate, almost 80% of Venezuela’s oil revenue is collected in stablecoins like tether, a local economist, Asdrúbal Oliveros, said on a recent podcast.
Here is the full WSJ piece.
The post Venezuela stablecoin fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.