2026-02-03 21:10:00
This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.
Microbes could extract the metal needed for cleantech
In a pine forest on Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, the only active nickel mine in the US is nearing the end of its life. At a time when carmakers want the metal for electric-vehicle batteries, nickel concentration at Eagle Mine is falling and could soon drop too low to warrant digging.
Demand for nickel, copper, and rare earth elements is rapidly increasing amid the explosive growth of metal-intensive data centers, electric cars, and renewable energy projects. But producing these metals is becoming harder and more expensive because miners have already exploited the best resources. Here’s how biotechnology could help.
—Matt Blois
What we’ve been getting wrong about AI’s truth crisis
—James O’Donnell
What would it take to convince you that the era of truth decay we were long warned about—where AI content dupes us, shapes our beliefs even when we catch the lie, and erodes societal trust in the process—is now here?
A story I published last week pushed me over the edge. And it also made me realize that the tools we were sold as a cure for this crisis are failing miserably. Read the full story.
This story originally appeared in The Algorithm, our weekly newsletter on AI. To get stories like this in your inbox first, sign up here.
TR10: Hyperscale AI data centers
In sprawling stretches of farmland and industrial parks, supersized buildings packed with racks of computers are springing up to fuel the AI race.
These engineering marvels are a new species of infrastructure: supercomputers designed to train and run large language models at mind-bending scale, complete with their own specialized chips, cooling systems, and even energy supplies. But all that impressive computing power comes at a cost.
Read why we’ve named hyperscale AI data centers as of our 10 Breakthrough Technologies this year, and check out the rest of the list.
The must-reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.
1 Elon Musk’s SpaceX has acquired xAI
The deal values the combined companies at a cool $1.25 trillion. (WSJ $)
+ It also paves the way for SpaceX to offer an IPO later this year. (WP $)
+ Meanwhile, OpenAI has accused xAI of destroying legal evidence. (Bloomberg $)
2 NASA has delayed the launch of Artemis II
It’s been pushed back to March due to the discovery of a hydrogen leak. (Ars Technica)
+ The rocket’s predecessor was also plagued by fuel leaks. (Scientific American)
3 Russia is hiring a guerilla youth army online
They’re committing arson and spying on targets across Europe. (New Yorker $)
4 Grok is still generating undressed images of men
Weeks after the backlash over it doing the same to women. (The Verge)
+ How Grok descended into becoming a porn generator. (WP $)
+ Inside the marketplace powering bespoke AI deepfakes of real women. (MIT Technology Review)
5 OpenAI is searching for alternatives to Nvidia’s chips
It’s reported to be unhappy about the speed at which it powers ChatGPT. (Reuters)
6 The latest attempt to study a notoriously unstable glacier has failed
Scientists lost their equipment within Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier over the weekend. (NYT $)
+ Inside a new quest to save the “doomsday glacier” (MIT Technology Review)
7 The world is trying to wean itself off American technology
Governments are growing increasingly uneasy about their reliance on the US. (Rest of World)
8 AI’s sloppy writing is driving demand for real human writers
Long may it continue. (Insider $)
9 This female-dominated fitness community hates Mark Zuckerberg
His decision to shut down three VR studios means their days of playing their favorite workout game are numbered. (The Verge)
+ Welcome to the AI gym staffed by virtual trainers. (MIT Technology Review)
10 This cemetery has an eco-friendly solution for its overcrowding problem
If you’re okay with your loved one becoming gardening soil, that is. (WSJ $)
+ Why America is embracing the right to die now. (Economist $)
+ What happens when you donate your body to science. (MIT Technology Review)
Quote of the day
“In the long term, space-based AI is obviously the only way to scale…I mean, space is called ‘space’ for a reason.”
—Elon Musk explains his rationale for combining SpaceX with xAI in a blog post.
One more thing
On the ground in Ukraine’s largest Starlink repair shop
Starlink is absolutely critical to Ukraine’s ability to continue in the fight against Russia. It’s how troops in battle zones stay connected with faraway HQs; it’s how many of the drones essential to Ukraine’s survival hit their targets; it’s even how soldiers stay in touch with spouses and children back home.
However, Donald Trump’s fickle foreign policy and reports suggesting Elon Musk might remove Ukraine’s access to the services have cast the technology’s future in the country into doubt.
For now Starlink access largely comes down to the unofficial community of users and engineers, including the expert “Dr. Starlink”—famous for his creative ways of customizing the systems—who have kept Ukraine in the fight, both on and off the front line. He gave MIT Technology Review exclusive access to his unofficial Starlink repair workshop in the city of Lviv. Read the full story.
—Charlie Metcalfe
We can still have nice things
A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.)
+ The Norwegian countryside sure looks beautiful.
+ Quick—it’s time to visit these food destinations before the TikTok hordes descend.
+ Rest in power Catherine O’Hara, our favorite comedy queen.
+ Take some time out of your busy day to read a potted history of boats 
2026-02-03 18:00:00
In a pine forest on Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, the only active nickel mine in the US is nearing the end of its life. At a time when carmakers want the metal for electric-vehicle batteries, nickel concentration at Eagle Mine is falling and could soon drop too low to warrant digging.
But earlier this year, the mine’s owner started testing a new process that could eke out a bit more nickel. In a pair of shipping containers recently installed at the mine’s mill, a fermentation-derived broth developed by the startup Allonnia is mixed with concentrated ore to capture and remove impurities. The process allows nickel production from lower-quality ore.
Kent Sorenson, Allonnia’s chief technology officer, says this approach could help companies continue operating sites that, like Eagle Mine, have burned through their best ore. “The low-hanging fruit is to keep mining the mines that we have,” he says.
Demand for nickel, copper, and rare earth elements is rapidly increasing amid the explosive growth of metal-intensive data centers, electric cars, and renewable energy projects. But producing these metals is becoming harder and more expensive because miners have already exploited the best resources. Like the age-old technique of rolling up the end of a toothpaste tube, Allonnia’s broth is one of a number of ways that biotechnology could help miners squeeze more metal out of aging mines, mediocre ore, or piles of waste.
The mining industry has intentionally seeded copper ore with microbes for decades. At current copper bioleaching sites, miners pile crushed copper ore into heaps and add sulfuric acid. Acid-loving bacteria like Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans colonize the mound. A chemical the organisms produce breaks the bond between sulfur and copper molecules to liberate the metal.
Until now, beyond maintaining the acidity and blowing air into the heap, there wasn’t much more miners could do to encourage microbial growth. But Elizabeth Dennett, CEO of the startup Endolith, says the decreasing cost of genetic tools is making it possible to manage the communities of microbes in a heap more actively. “The technology we’re using now didn’t exist a few years ago,” she says.
Endolith analyzes bits of DNA and RNA in the copper-rich liquid that flows out of an ore heap to characterize the microbes living inside. Combined with a suite of chemical analyses, the information helps the company determine which microbes to sprinkle on a heap to optimize extraction.
In lab tests on ore from the mining firm BHP, Endolith’s active techniques outperformed passive bioleaching approaches. In November, the company raised $16.5 million to move from its Denver lab to heaps in active mines.
Despite these promising early results, Corale Brierley, an engineer who has worked on metal bioleaching systems since the 1970s, questions whether companies like Endolith that add additional microbes to ore will successfully translate their processes to commercial scales. “What guarantees are you going to give the company that those organisms will actually grow?” Brierley asks.
Big mining firms that have already optimized every hose, nut, and bolt in their process won’t be easy to convince either, says Diana Rasner, an analyst covering mining technology for the research firm Cleantech Group.
“They are acutely aware of what it takes to scale these technologies because they know the industry,” she says. “They’ll be your biggest supporters, but they’re going to be your biggest critics.”
In addition to technical challenges, Rasner points out that venture-capital-backed biotechnology startups will struggle to deliver the quick returns their investors seek. Mining companies want lots of data before adopting a new process, which could take years of testing to compile. “This is not software,” Rasner says.
Nuton, a subsidiary of the mining giant Rio Tinto, is a good example. The company has been working for decades on a copper bioleaching process that uses a blend of archaea and bacteria strains, plus some chemical additives. But it started demonstrating the technology only late last year, at a mine in Arizona.
While Endolith and Nuton use naturally occurring microbes, the startup 1849 is hoping to achieve a bigger performance boost by genetically engineering microbes.
“You can do what mining companies have traditionally done,” says CEO Jai Padmakumar. “Or you can try to take the moonshot bet and engineer them. If you get that, you have a huge win.”
Genetic engineering would allow 1849 to tailor its microbes to the specific challenges facing a customer. But engineering organisms can also make them harder to grow, warns Buz Barstow, a Cornell University microbiologist who studies applications for biotechnology in mining.
Other companies are trying to avoid that trade-off by applying the products of microbial fermentation, rather than live organisms. Alta Resource Technologies, which closed a $28 million investment round in December, is engineering microbes that make proteins capable of extracting and separating rare earth elements. Similarly, the startup REEgen, based in Ithaca, New York, relies on the organic acids produced by an engineered strain of Gluconobacter oxydans to extract rare earth elements from ore and from waste materials like metal recycling slag, coal ash, or old electronics. “The microbes are the manufacturing,” says CEO Alexa Schmitz, an alumna of Barstow’s lab.
To make a dent in the growing demand for metal, this new wave of biotechnologies will have to go beyond copper and gold, says Barstow. In 2024, he started a project to map out genes that could be useful for extracting and separating a wider range of metals. Even with the challenges ahead, he says, biotechnology has the potential to transform mining the way fracking changed natural gas. “Biomining is one of these areas where the need … is big enough,” he says.
The challenge will be moving fast enough to keep up with growing demand.
2026-02-03 02:09:57
This story originally appeared in The Algorithm, our weekly newsletter on AI. To get stories like this in your inbox first, sign up here.
What would it take to convince you that the era of truth decay we were long warned about—where AI content dupes us, shapes our beliefs even when we catch the lie, and erodes societal trust in the process—is now here? A story I published last week pushed me over the edge. It also made me realize that the tools we were sold as a cure for this crisis are failing miserably.
On Thursday, I reported the first confirmation that the US Department of Homeland Security, which houses immigration agencies, is using AI video generators from Google and Adobe to make content that it shares with the public. The news comes as immigration agencies have flooded social media with content to support President Trump’s mass deportation agenda—some of which appears to be made with AI (like a video about “Christmas after mass deportations”).
But I received two types of reactions from readers that may explain just as much about the epistemic crisis we’re in.
One was from people who weren’t surprised, because on January 22 the White House had posted a digitally altered photo of a woman arrested at an ICE protest, one that made her appear hysterical and in tears. Kaelan Dorr, the White House’s deputy communications director, did not respond to questions about whether the White House altered the photo but wrote, “The memes will continue.”
The second was from readers who saw no point in reporting that DHS was using AI to edit content shared with the public, because news outlets were apparently doing the same. They pointed to the fact that the news network MS Now (formerly MSNBC) shared an image of Alex Pretti that was AI-edited and appeared to make him look more handsome, a fact that led to many viral clips this week, including one from Joe Rogan’s podcast. Fight fire with fire, in other words? A spokesperson for MS Now told Snopes that the news outlet aired the image without knowing it was edited.
There is no reason to collapse these two cases of altered content into the same category, or to read them as evidence that truth no longer matters. One involved the US government sharing a clearly altered photo with the public and declining to answer whether it was intentionally manipulated; the other involved a news outlet airing a photo it should have known was altered but taking some steps to disclose the mistake.
What these reactions reveal instead is a flaw in how we were collectively preparing for this moment. Warnings about the AI truth crisis revolved around a core thesis: that not being able to tell what is real will destroy us, so we need tools to independently verify the truth. My two grim takeaways are that these tools are failing, and that while vetting the truth remains essential, it is no longer capable on its own of producing the societal trust we were promised.
For example, there was plenty of hype in 2024 about the Content Authenticity Initiative, cofounded by Adobe and adopted by major tech companies, which would attach labels to content disclosing when it was made, by whom, and whether AI was involved. But Adobe applies automatic labels only when the content is wholly AI-generated. Otherwise the labels are opt-in on the part of the creator.
And platforms like X, where the altered arrest photo was posted, can strip content of such labels anyway (a note that the photo was altered was added by users). Platforms can also simply not choose to show the label at all.
Noticing how much traction the White House’s photo got even after it was shown to be AI-altered, I was struck by the findings of a very relevant new paper published in the journal Communications Psychology. In the study, participants watched a deepfake “confession” to a crime, and the researchers found that even when they were told explicitly that the evidence was fake, participants relied on it when judging an individual’s guilt. In other words, even when people learn that the content they’re looking at is entirely fake, they remain emotionally swayed by it.
“Transparency helps, but it isn’t enough on its own,” the disinformation expert Christopher Nehring wrote recently about the study’s findings. “We have to develop a new masterplan of what to do about deepfakes.”
AI tools to generate and edit content are getting more advanced, easier to operate, and cheaper to run—all reasons why the US government is increasingly paying to use them. We were well warned of this, but we responded by preparing for a world in which the main danger was confusion. What we’re entering instead is a world in which influence survives exposure, doubt is easily weaponized, and establishing the truth does not serve as a reset button. And the defenders of truth are already trailing way behind.
Update: This story was updated on February 2 with details about how Adobe applies its content authenticity labels. A previous version of this story said content credentials were not visible on the Pentagon’s DVIDS website. The labels are present but require clicking through and hovering on individual images. The reference has been removed.
2026-02-02 22:20:29
Many organizations rushed into generative AI, only to see pilots fail to deliver value. Now, companies want measurable outcomes—but how do you design for success?
At Mistral AI, we partner with global industry leaders to co-design tailored AI solutions that solve their most difficult problems. Whether it’s increasing CX productivity with Cisco, building a more intelligent car with Stellantis, or accelerating product innovation with ASML, we start with open frontier models and customize AI systems to deliver impact for each company’s unique challenges and goals.
Our methodology starts by identifying an iconic use case, the foundation for AI transformation that sets the blueprint for future AI solutions. Choosing the right use case can mean the difference between true transformation and endless tinkering and testing.
Mistral AI has four criteria that we look for in a use case: strategic, urgent, impactful, and feasible.
First, the use case must be strategically valuable, addressing a core business process or a transformative new capability. It needs to be more than an optimization; it needs to be a gamechanger. The use case needs to be strategic enough to excite an organization’s C-suite and board of directors.
For example, use cases like an internal-facing HR chatbot are nice to have, but they are easy to solve and are not enabling any new innovation or opportunities. On the other end of the spectrum, imagine an externally facing banking assistant that can not only answer questions, but also help take actions like blocking a card, placing trades, and suggesting upsell/cross-sell opportunities. This is how a customer-support chatbot is turned into a strategic revenue-generating asset.
Second, the best use case to move forward with should be highly urgent and solve a business-critical problem that people care about right now. This project will take time out of people’s days—it needs to be important enough to justify that time investment. And it needs to help business users solve immediate pain points.
Third, the use case should be pragmatic and impactful. From day one, our shared goal with our customers is to deploy into a real-world production environment to enable testing the solution with real users and gather feedback. Many AI prototypes end up in the graveyard of fancy demos that are not good enough to put in front of customers, and without any scaffolding to evaluate and improve. We work with customers to ensure prototypes are stable enough to release, and that they have the necessary support and governance frameworks.
Finally, the best use case is feasible. There may be several urgent projects, but choosing one that can deliver a quick return on investment helps to maintain the momentum needed to continue and scale.
This means looking for a project that can be in production within three months—and a prototype can be live within a few weeks. It’s important to get a prototype in front of end users as fast as possible to get feedback to make sure the project is on track, and pivot as needed.
Enterprises are complex, and the path forward is not usually obvious. To weed through all the possibilities and uncover the right first use case, Mistral AI will run workshops with our customers, hand-in-hand with subject-matter experts and end users.
Representatives from different functions will demo their processes and discuss business cases that could be candidates for a first use case—and together we agree on a winner. Here are some examples of types of projects that don’t qualify.
Moonshots: Ambitious bets that excite leadership but lack a path to quick ROI. While these projects can be strategic and urgent, they rarely meet the feasibility and impact requirements.
Future investments: Long-term plays that can wait. While these projects can be strategic and feasible, they rarely meet the urgency and impact requirements.
Tactical fixes: Firefighting projects that solve immediate pain but don’t move the needle. While these cases can be urgent and feasible, they rarely meet the strategy and impact requirements.
Quick wins: Useful for building momentum, but not transformative. While they can be impactful and feasible, they rarely meet the strategy and urgency requirements.
Blue sky ideas: These projects are gamechangers, but they need maturity to be viable. While they can be strategic and impactful, they rarely meet the urgency and feasibility requirements.
Hero projects: These are high-pressure initiatives that lack executive sponsorship or realistic timelines. While they can be urgent and impactful, they rarely meet the strategy and feasibility requirements.
Once a clearly defined and strategic use case ready for development is identified, it’s time to move into the validation phase. This means doing an initial data exploration and data mapping, identifying a pilot infrastructure, and choosing a target deployment environment.
This step also involves agreeing on a draft pilot scope, identifying who will participate in the proof of concept, and setting up a governance process.
Once this is complete, it’s time to move into the building phase. Companies that partner with Mistral work with our in-house applied AI scientists who build our frontier models. We work together to design, build, and deploy the first solution.
During this phase, we focus on co-creation, so we can transfer knowledge and skills to the organizations we’re partnering with. That way, they can be self-sufficient far into the future. The output of this phase is a deployed AI solution with empowered teams capable of independent operation and innovation.
After the first win, it’s imperative to use the momentum and learnings from the iconic use case to identify more high-value AI solutions to roll out. Success is when we have a scalable AI transformation blueprint with multiple high-value solutions across the organization.
But none of this could happen without successfully identifying that first iconic use case. This first step is not just about selecting a project—it’s about setting the foundation for your entire AI transformation.
It’s the difference between scattered experiments and a strategic, scalable journey toward impact. At Mistral AI, we’ve seen how this approach unlocks measurable value, aligns stakeholders, and builds momentum for what comes next.
The path to AI success starts with a single, well-chosen use case: one that is bold enough to inspire, urgent enough to demand action, and pragmatic enough to deliver.
This content was produced by Mistral AI. It was not written by MIT Technology Review’s editorial staff.
2026-02-02 21:10:00
This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.
Inside the marketplace powering bespoke AI deepfakes of real women
Civitai—an online marketplace for buying and selling AI-generated content, backed by the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz—is letting users buy custom instruction files for generating celebrity deepfakes. Some of these files were specifically designed to make pornographic images banned by the site, a new analysis has found.
The study, from researchers at Stanford and Indiana University, looked at people’s requests for content on the site, called “bounties.” The researchers found that between mid-2023 and the end of 2024, most bounties asked for animated content—but a significant portion were for deepfakes of real people, and 90% of these deepfake requests targeted women. Read the full story.
—James O’Donnell
What’s next for EV batteries in 2026
Demand for electric vehicles and the batteries that power them has never been hotter.
In 2025, EVs made up over a quarter of new vehicle sales globally, up from less than 5% in 2020. Some regions are seeing even higher uptake: In China, more than 50% of new vehicle sales last year were battery electric or plug-in hybrids. In Europe, more purely electric vehicles hit the roads in December than gas-powered ones. (The US is the notable exception here, dragging down the global average with a small sales decline from 2024.)
As EVs become increasingly common on the roads, the battery world is growing too. Here’s what’s coming next for EV batteries in 2026 and beyond.
—Casey Crownhart
This story is part of MIT Technology Review’s What’s Next series, which examines industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here.
TR10: Base-edited baby
Kyle “KJ” Muldoon Jr. was born with a rare, potentially fatal genetic disorder that left his body unable to remove toxic ammonia from his blood. The University of Pennsylvania offered his parents an alternative to a liver transplant: gene-editing therapies.
The team set to work developing a tailored treatment using base editing—a form of CRISPR that can correct genetic “misspellings” by changing single bases, the basic units of DNA. KJ received an initial low dose when he was seven months old, and later received two higher doses. Today, KJ is doing well. At an event in October last year, his happy parents described how he was meeting all his developmental milestones.
Others have received gene-editing therapies intended to treat conditions including sickle cell disease and a predisposition to high cholesterol. But KJ was the first to receive a personalized treatment—one that was designed just for him and will probably never be used again. Read why we made it one of our 10 Breakthrough Technologies this year, and check out the rest of the list.
The must-reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.
1 A social network for AI agents is vulnerable to abuse
A misconfiguration meant anyone could take control of any agent. (404 Media)
+ Moltbook is loosely modeled on Reddit, but humans are unable to post. (FT $)
2 Google breached its own ethics rules to help an Israeli contractor
It helped a military worker to analyze drone footage, a whistleblower has claimed. (WP $)
3 Capgemini is selling its unit linked to ICE
After the French government asked it to clarify its work for the agency. (Bloomberg $)
+ The company has signed $12.2mn in contracts under the Trump administration. (FT $)
+ Here’s how to film ICE activities as safely as possible. (Wired $)
4 China has a plan to prime its next generation of AI experts
Thanks to its elite genius class system. (FT $)
+ The country is going all-in on AI healthcare. (Rest of World)
+ The State of AI: Is China about to win the race? (MIT Technology Review)
5 Indonesia has reversed its ban on xAI’s Grok
After it announced plans to improve its compliance with the country’s laws. (Reuters)
+ Indonesia maintains a strict stance against pornographic content. (NYT $)
+ Malaysia and the Philippines have also lifted bans on the chatbot. (TechCrunch)
6 Don’t expect to hitch a ride on a Blue Origin rocket anytime soon
Jeff Bezos’ venture won’t be taking tourists into space for at least two years. (NYT $)
+ Artemis II astronauts are due to set off for the moon soon. (IEEE Spectrum)
+ Commercial space stations are on our list of 10 Breakthrough Technologies for 2026. (MIT Technology Review)
7 America’s push for high-speed internet is under threat
There aren’t enough skilled workers to meet record demand. (WSJ $)
8 Can AI help us grieve better?
A growing cluster of companies are trying to find out. (The Atlantic $)
+ Technology that lets us “speak” to our dead relatives has arrived. Are we ready? (MIT Technology Review)
9 How to fight future insect infestations 
A certain species of fungus could play a key role. (Ars Technica)
+ How do fungi communicate? (MIT Technology Review)
10 What a robot-made latte tastes like, according to a former barista
Damn fine, apparently. (The Verge)
Quote of the day
“It feels like a wild bison rampaging around in my computer.”
—A user who signed up to AI agent Moltbot remarks on the bot’s unpredictable behavior, Rest of World reports.
One more thing
How Wi-Fi sensing became usable tech
Wi-Fi sensing is a tantalizing concept: that the same routers bringing you the internet could also detect your movements. But, as a way to monitor health, it’s mostly been eclipsed by other technologies, like ultra-wideband radar.
Despite that, Wi-Fi sensing hasn’t gone away. Instead, it has quietly become available in millions of homes, supported by leading internet service providers, smart-home companies, and chip manufacturers.
Soon it could be invisibly monitoring our day-to-day movements for all sorts of surprising—and sometimes alarming—purposes. Read the full story.
—Meg Duff
We can still have nice things
A place for comfort, fun and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line or skeet ’em at me.)
+ These intrepid Scottish bakers created the largest ever Empire biscuit (a classic shortbread cookie covered in icing) 
+ My, what big tentacles you have!
+ If you’ve been feeling like you’re stuck in a rut lately, this advice could be exactly what you need to overcome it.
+ These works of psychedelic horror are guaranteed to send a shiver down your spine.
2026-02-02 18:00:00
MIT Technology Review’s What’s Next series looks across industries, trends, and technologies to give you a first look at the future. You can read the rest of them here.
Demand for electric vehicles and the batteries that power them has never been hotter.
In 2025, EVs made up over a quarter of new vehicle sales globally, up from less than 5% in 2020. Some regions are seeing even higher uptake: In China, more than 50% of new vehicle sales last year were battery electric or plug-in hybrids. In Europe, more purely electric vehicles hit the roads in December than gas-powered ones. (The US is the notable exception here, dragging down the global average with a small sales decline from 2024.)
As EVs become increasingly common on the roads, the battery world is growing too. Looking ahead, we could soon see wider adoption of new chemistries, including some that deliver lower costs or higher performance. Meanwhile, the geopolitics of batteries are shifting, and so is the policy landscape. Here’s what’s coming next for EV batteries in 2026 and beyond.
Lithium-ion batteries are the default chemistry used in EVs, personal devices, and even stationary storage systems on the grid today. But in a tough environment in some markets like the US, there’s a growing interest in cheaper alternatives. Automakers right now largely care just about batteries’ cost, regardless of performance improvements, says Kara Rodby, a technical principal at Volta Energy Technologies, a venture capital firm that focuses on energy storage technology.
Sodium-ion cells have long been held up as a potentially less expensive alternative to lithium. The batteries are limited in their energy density, so they deliver a shorter range than lithium-ion. But sodium is also more abundant, so they could be cheaper.
Sodium’s growth has been cursed, however, by the very success of lithium-based batteries, says Shirley Meng, a professor of molecular engineering at the University of Chicago. A lithium-ion battery cell cost $568 per kilowatt-hour in 2013, but that cost had fallen to just $74 per kilowatt-hour by 2025—quite the moving target for cheaper alternatives to chase.
Sodium-ion batteries currently cost about $59 per kilowatt-hour on average. That’s less expensive than the average lithium-ion battery. But if you consider only lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, a lower-end type of lithium-ion battery that averages $52 per kilowatt-hour, sodium is still more expensive today.
We could soon see an opening for sodium-batteries, though. Lithium prices have been ticking up in recent months, a shift that could soon slow or reverse the steady downward march of prices for lithium-based batteries.
Sodium-ion batteries are already being used commercially, largely for stationary storage on the grid. But we’re starting to see sodium-ion cells incorporated into vehicles, too. The Chinese companies Yadea, JMEV, and HiNa Battery have all started producing sodium-ion batteries in limited numbers for EVs, including small, short-range cars and electric scooters that don’t require a battery with high energy density. CATL, a Chinese battery company that’s the world’s largest, says it recently began producing sodium-ion cells. The company plans to launch its first EV using the chemistry by the middle of this year.
Today, both production and demand for sodium-ion batteries are heavily centered in China. That’s likely to continue, especially after a cutback in tax credits and other financial support for the battery and EV industries in the US. One of the biggest sodium-battery companies in the US, Natron, ceased operations last year after running into funding issues.
We could also see progress in sodium-ion research: Companies and researchers are developing new materials for components including the electrolyte and electrodes, so the cells could get more comparable to lower-end lithium-ion cells in terms of energy density, Meng says.
As we enter the second half of this decade, many eyes in the battery world are on big promises and claims about solid-state batteries.
These batteries could pack more energy into a smaller package by removing the liquid electrolyte, the material that ions move through when a battery is charging and discharging. With a higher energy density, they could unlock longer-range EVs.
Companies have been promising solid-state batteries for years. Toyota, for example, once planned to have them in vehicles by 2020. That timeline has been delayed several times, though the company says it’s now on track to launch the new cells in cars in 2027 or 2028.
Historically, battery makers have struggled to produce solid-state batteries at the scale needed to deliver a commercially relevant supply for EVs. There’s been progress in manufacturing techniques, though, and companies could soon actually make good on their promises, Meng says.
Factorial Energy, a US-based company making solid-state batteries, provided cells for a Mercedes test vehicle that drove over 745 miles on a single charge in a real-world test in September. The company says it plans to bring its tech to market as soon as 2027. Quantumscape, another major solid-state player in the US, is testing its cells with automotive partners and plans to have its batteries in commercial production later this decade.
Before we see true solid-state batteries, we could see hybrid technologies, often referred to as semi-solid-state batteries. These commonly use materials like gel electrolytes, reducing the liquid inside cells without removing it entirely. Many Chinese companies are looking to build semi-solid-state batteries before transitioning to entirely solid-state ones, says Evelina Stoikou, head of battery technologies and supply chains at BloombergNEF, an energy consultancy.
The picture for the near future of the EV industry looks drastically different depending on where you’re standing.
Last year, China overtook Japan as the country with the most global auto sales. And more than one in three EVs made in 2025 had a CATL battery in it. Simply put, China is dominating the global battery industry, and that doesn’t seem likely to change anytime soon.
China’s influence outside its domestic market is growing especially quickly. CATL is expected to begin production this year at its second European site; the factory, located in Hungary, is an $8.2 billion project that will supply automakers including BMW and the Mercedes-Benz group. Canada recently signed a deal that will lower the import tax on Chinese EVs from 100% to roughly 6%, effectively opening the Canadian market for Chinese EVs.
Some countries that haven’t historically been major EV markets could become bigger players in the second half of the decade. Annual EV sales in Thailand and Vietnam, where the market was virtually nonexistent just a few years ago, broke 100,000 in 2025. Brazil, in particular, could see its new EV sales more than double in 2026 as major automakers including Volkswagen and BYD set up or ramp up production in the country.
On the flip side, EVs are facing a real test in 2026 in the US, as this will be the first calendar year after the sunset of federal tax credits that were designed to push more drivers to purchase the vehicles. With those credits gone, growth in sales is expected to continue lagging.
One bright spot for batteries in the US is outside the EV market altogether. Battery manufacturers are starting to produce low-cost LFP batteries in the US, largely for energy storage applications. LG opened a massive factory to make LFP batteries in mid-2025 in Michigan, and the Korean battery company SK On plans to start making LFP batteries at its facility in Georgia later this year. Those plants could help battery companies cash in on investments as the US EV market faces major headwinds.
Even as the US lags behind, the world is electrifying transportation. By 2030, 40% of new vehicles sold around the world are projected to be electric. As we approach that milestone, expect to see more global players, a wider selection of EVs, and an even wider menu of batteries to power them.
