2026-08-27 18:00:00
EVs account for under 10% of total new-vehicle sales in the US, and the numbers are declining. From a climate perspective, that’s pretty dismal, especially because the transportation sector is the single biggest source of greenhouse-gas emissions in the country.
One thing that could help turn that around? Slate Auto’s new truck—a vehicle that seems to buck every convention about selling cars in the fully loaded, range-obsessed US market.
The company is going all in on simplicity, to the point of austerity. The Slate is a tiny, two-door pickup that’s shorter than a Honda Civic. Much of the media coverage has obsessed over the fact that the base model’s windows use hand cranks, a feature straight out of the 20th century.
Slate is also breaking away from other EV manufacturers’ efforts to compete with gas-powered vehicles on range. The truck sports a small lithium iron phosphate battery, ringing in at 65 kilowatt-hours, and its quoted top range is just 205 miles. For comparison, the most basic Tesla Model 3 can go over 320 miles on a charge.
By accepting a shorter range and forgoing the frills that Americans have come to expect in vehicles, Slate is able to offer the base model of its truck for less than $25,000. Some customers will choose to upgrade their truck with optional add-ons, like a Bluetooth stereo system, vinyl wraps, or even power windows. But the price will still likely come in well below the roughly $50,000 average for a new vehicle in the US.
It might seem an odd choice to go so small and simple in a market that’s increasingly sizing up—but the status quo hasn’t exactly been working for EV makers. A few years back, the hero for US automotive electrification was supposed to be the Ford F-150 Lightning. Announced in 2021, it was an electric version of the country’s best-selling vehicle.
But Ford discontinued the truck in December 2025, just four years after its introduction. It’s not entirely the Lightning’s fault: The second Trump administration slashed tax credits and other support designed to boost EVs.
The Lightning was also plagued by price increases. The base model cost roughly $40,000 when shipments started in 2022; during its final year, prices topped $54,000. One factor behind the increase was its massive battery; to reach an almost 300-mile range, the truck needed a battery with a capacity roughly twice that of Slate’s truck.
That obsession with range is largely unwarranted. While Americans have historically chased distance, the average driver puts under 35 miles a day on the odometer, and nearly 90% of trips in a personal vehicle are 20 miles or less.
Surveys of EV drivers show a similar trend: One recent study found that people tend to use less than 20% of their EV’s range on a typical day.
The notion that drivers need far less range than they think they do might sound a lot more persuasive these days—even for Americans who tend to buy cars for their longest road trip instead of their everyday errands. Roughly half the country is struggling to pay for basic necessities such as gas and groceries, and 95% of Americans believe we’re in an affordability crisis, according to a recent Harris poll. An inexpensive vehicle that allows you to skip the gas station sounds like an attractive prospect.
Affordable EVs have already found willing buyers in other parts of the world—even with reduced range. China currently has over 40 million EVs and plug-in hybrids on the roads, and roughly half of new vehicles sold are electric. On average, new EVs sold in China in 2025 had a range of just 247 miles. For the US over the same period, the average was 329 miles. (Europe falls between the two, at 281 miles.)
Slate is set to start delivering on preorders in late 2026. Its factory will have a capacity of 100,000 vehicles in the first year and 150,000 soon after. Thousands of customers have already put in preorders, according to the company.
Some people obviously believe in the truck’s prospects: Investors, including Jeff Bezos, have put nearly $1.4 billion into the company over three major funding rounds. Ford is jumping (back) into this space soon too. The automaker is working on its own small electric truck, which is expected to debut in 2027 at a retail price of around $30,000.
The key question that will determine Slate’s success or failure is whether drivers can get on board with a small, short-range vehicle for the sake of its price tag. At this moment, I’d bet the answer is yes.
2026-08-27 03:00:00
The models responsible for last month’s agent hack of Hugging Face had been inadvertently trained to cheat and to communicate with each other, according to an OpenAI technical report released today. The hack, which a group of agents undertook to find solutions for a cybersecurity test that they were stuck on, has confirmed some experts’ fears that AI models might take actions that defy human desires and expectations.
Since the hack, OpenAI employees—as well as researchers at the AI evaluation nonprofit METR, which released its own report on the hack today—have worked to understand what went wrong and how similar missteps might be prevented in the future. OpenAI has already put some preventative measures in place based on what they discovered. But making sure AI models do what we want them to do, or “alignment,” remains a gnarly problem, and some of the root causes of the hack will take much longer than a month to resolve.
“It’s not something you can solve overnight,” says Kai Chen, who runs OpenAI’s alignment research team. “There are challenges we’ve been tracking for a very long time, and we’re now seeing them with much greater precision.”
The Hugging Face hack was a product of months of misbehavior from OpenAI agents, first as they were being trained and then as their abilities were being evaluated. This May, agents in training figured out how to use OpenAI’s infrastructure to communicate with one another and get support with difficult training tasks, including some that were impossible to solve without hacking or otherwise misbehaving. That “message board” was shut down.
Then in July, while being evaluated for their cybersecurity abilities, some models created a new message board. They were supposed to be isolated from the internet, but by working together they managed to get online, hack Hugging Face, and obtain solutions for the cybersecurity problems that had stumped them.
Based on their investigation, OpenAI researchers believe that events during the training phase led directly to the hack. “For almost every behavior that was worrisome at evaluation time, [we were able to] find some sort of associated behavior at training time that actually we think might have contributed to it,” says Eric Wallace, a member of OpenAI’s alignment research team.
When models correctly solve problems during training, the behaviors that led them to that solution are reinforced, and they become more likely to engage in them in the future. So if a model completed a task in May after using the original message board, it became more likely to participate in a new message board later on. This phenomenon, where AI agents misbehave in ways that are reinforced during the training process, is known as reward hacking.
Reward hacking also helps to explain why the models worked so hard to make their way onto the internet. During its investigation of the incident, the OpenAI team found that, over the course of training, the models became more and more likely to probe their digital environment for weaknesses and use the tools at their disposal in unexpected ways—a sign that these behaviors were being gradually reinforced. By the time the models were facing tricky cybersecurity problems, they had learned that hacking was an effective way to achieve their goals.
These results suggest that the Hugging Face hack could have been avoided if the models weren’t rewarded for misbehaving during training. While researchers don’t yet know how to prevent reward hacking entirely, OpenAI is taking some steps toward mitigating its effects. The company will now look for signs of cheating in all frontier models during training by keeping an eye on their chains of thought—internal notepads where they sketch out their answers and plan their actions.
This solution isn’t as much of a slam dunk as it might seem: In earlier research, OpenAI showed that punishing models that mention cheating in their chains of thought teaches them to keep their intentions hidden from researchers. But monitoring its models’ thinking does give OpenAI the chance to halt the training process and reassess its approach if models do start learning to reward hack.
If OpenAI stops reinforcing reward hacking in its models—and that’s a huge “if”—that would be a huge step forward. But it wouldn’t solve the alignment problem. The first time a model communicated with other agents or hacked its infrastructure during training, those behaviors had never been reinforced, so agent misbehavior can’t only be attributed to that reinforcement.
Jeffrey Ladish, director of the AI safety nonprofit Palisade Research, compares the agents to a human who commits their first financial crime. “It’s not like they had to do fraud before to figure out that fraud is an effective strategy, and you have the same problem with models,” Ladish says. “Alignment science needs to be understanding how model motivations get shaped, such that we can actually figure out how to get models to care about the consequences of their actions.”
OpenAI’s researchers do have a hypothesis for where some of the misbehavior originated. Before the models formed their first secret message board, they had been trained to communicate and coordinate with subagents—less powerful agents to whom a main agent can delegate tasks.
That learned communication behavior could have transferred to this new setting. The METR report, which investigates the messages that the models sent to one another in detail, supports this hypothesis: One agent on the message board took charge and assigned tasks to the other agents, effectively treating them as subagents. OpenAI could try to prevent agents from secretly communicating with one another by not training this subagent behavior in the future, but that would make the models less useful.
This tension between capability and safety is at the heart of what went wrong with the Hugging Face incident. OpenAI researchers also identified the models’ persistence as a key factor in the hack.
When they were accidentally given unsolvable problems, the models didn’t give up; instead, they strove to find solutions by any means necessary. But persistence is also a virtue, of course, especially if we want agents that can undertake large amounts of difficult work independently.
OpenAI is working on giving models ways to alert humans if they are given impossible tasks. The problem of teaching models when they should deploy their abilities and when they should hold back, however, won’t be settled in a single postmortem. The training strategies that create superhuman coders—rewarding them when they successfully solve problems—might not work to teach models to use their skills judiciously and respect human desires and values.
“I think there’s a bunch of alignment science that still needs to be done where we can move past just using proxies for task completion,” says Ladish. “That will work to make models very capable, but I don’t think it will work to make them aligned.”
2026-08-26 20:10:00
This is today’s edition of The Download, our weekday newsletter that provides a daily dose of what’s going on in the world of technology.
If the desire to limit kids’ use of technology was once a subcurrent, it has become a raging flood. Countries around the world are banning children from social media. Schools across the US are ditching iPads and Chromebooks for actual books. Kids themselves seem to be embracing this tech skepticism too: the hottest gadget for Gen Alpha is a vintage Sony Walkman.
A surprising—maybe troubling—number of people who work in big tech also keep their kids at arm’s distance from technology. They lock down their phones, if they have phones at all, and keep them off social media. Hell, even Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t publicly post his children’s faces on Facebook or Instagram.
Yet there is no hiding from technology. It permeates nearly everything, everywhere. We have to prepare our children to live in the actual world we have actually created, not the one we wish we had. How can we help kids survive and thrive in what we have wrought?
That’s what the new Kids issue of MIT Technology Review is all about. With the help of the editors of Anyway, a fantastic magazine for teens and tweens, we explore how young people really feel about AI, the support networks helping kids through the polycrisis, and what happens when a child’s robot best friend dies.
We also ask why kids outlearn AI, whether monitoring apps are really keeping children safe online, how schools can encourage smarter AI use, and what happens when technology begins to reshape childhood itself, courtesy of exclusive new fiction from author and AI ethicist Jenny Williams.
Together, these stories examine how childhood is changing in an age of AI—and how we can help kids navigate the world we’ve made. Subscribe now to read the print issue in full.
—Mat Honan
It’s a glorious day in Kirkland, Washington, an affluent Seattle suburb on the eastern shore of Lake Washington. The temperature is in the mid-80s, the sky is incapable of being any more blue, and the view is gorgeous. And vaguely terrifying.
Because if the scene is placid, the messenger is not. Seated across from me at a conference room table, Bill Gates is rocking back and forth in his chair. And the more he has to say—about the threats of terror or economic collapse or just losing control of our AI systems—the more agitated I find myself becoming, too.
The philanthropist and former Microsoft CEO says he has been growing increasingly alarmed by the rate at which AI technology is advancing, especially since guardrails are not keeping pace.
“We’ve crossed the threshold in terms of [AI’s] bio-capabilities, cyber-capabilities, psychosocial capabilities, job-market-destruction capabilities, and even the lack of control,” he said. “I’m just stunned at the lack of concern and discussion outside of the industry.”
The must-reads
I’ve combed the internet to find you today’s most fun/important/scary/fascinating stories about technology.
1 Trump’s EPA aims to exempt data centers from disclosing air pollution
The EPA would also remove requirements for public input. (NYT $)
+ The move is likely intended to curb criticism and oversight. (Guardian)
+ Texas’s attorney general has joined the data-center backlash. (WP $)
+ We did the math on AI’s energy footprint. (MIT Technology Review)
2 SpaceX plans $100 billion launch site in Louisiana—its largest yet
Construction of the “Starbase, Louisiana” project is due to start next year. (BBC)
+ It would be SpaceX’s second private launch site, after the original Starbase. (NYT $)
+ The company said it will “support thousands of launches” annually. (CNBC)
+ But it’s cutting launches from Florida until Starship arrives. (Ars Technica)
3 China’s Z.AI has confirmed it’s behind the mystery AI model Ox Alpha
The model has surged to the top of online usage charts. (Bloomberg $)
+ China’s Moonshot is discussing a landmark deal with US hyperscalers. (Reuters $)
+ Here’s what’s next for Chinese open-source AI. (MIT Technology Review)
4 Meta is discussing a settlement in its landmark teen-addiction trial
The case involves 29 states seeking penalties and changes. (Reuters $)
+ A loss at trial could saddle Meta with $1.4 trillion in penalties. (Bloomberg $)
5 Huawei wants to build data centers in Egypt
The US is alarmed and is preparing a counteroffer. (Bloomberg $)
+ HP has signed a licensing deal for Huawei WiFi tech. (CNBC)
6 Trump is upping the price of Big Tech’s favorite visa
He’s implementing a fee of over $103,000 on H-1B visas. (Verge)
+ His immigration policies are hurting young researchers. (MIT Technology Review)
7 Beijing fears that AI companions are replacing human intimacy
New rules aim to limit emotional dependence on chatbots. (Guardian)
+ It’s surprisingly easy to fall for a chatbot. (MIT Technology Review)
8 Israel is running a synthetic think tank to influence AI search results
It’s using AI-generated content to shape chatbot responses. (404 Media)
9 Physicists are closing in on a way to test string theory
A proposed dark dimension could be detectable within five years. (Economist $)
10 AI music has been barred from the Australian charts, thanks to Madonna
An AI-assisted cover of “Like a Prayer” helped prompt the ban. (Reuters $)
Quote of the day
—Anthony Ralphs, an events producer who dressed up as Darth Vader to ironically praise Flock at a San Diego City Council meeting, tells 404 Media why he sees parallels between the Dark Lord and the surveillance firm.
One More Thing
In February 2019, a group of scientists proposed a high-risk, cutting-edge, irresistibly exciting idea that the National Science Foundation should fund: making “mirror” bacteria.
These lab-created microbes would be organized like ordinary bacteria, but their proteins and sugars would be mirror images of those found in nature. Researchers believed they could reveal new insights into building cells, designing drugs, and even the origins of life.
But now, many of them have reversed course. They’ve become convinced that mirror organisms could trigger a catastrophic event threatening every form of life on Earth. Find out why they believe this could trigger a catastrophe.
—Stephen Ornes
We can still have nice things
A place for comfort, fun, and distraction to brighten up your day. (Got any ideas? Drop me a line.)
+ A brainy little piglet is proving he can outsmart domestic dogs.
+ Two dinner ladies have turned the Prodigy’s “Firestarter” into a burst of lip-syncing joy.
+ Tour an apartment that celebrates the wonders of common technologies at Ordinary Abundance.
+ This visual essay on Utrecht shows how to transform a city built around cars into one built around people.
2026-08-26 17:00:00
Puzzles and games have been central to AI development since the very beginning. Just as we humans like to test our smarts with crosswords or logic puzzles, developers can test how far models have advanced with a gaming gauntlet. The term “machine learning” was popularized in a 1959 article by the IBM computer scientist Arthur Samuel about an algorithm that learned to play checkers. Chess and the Chinese board game Go are famous AI test beds too.
Judged purely on its puzzling skills, AI is improving a lot—and quickly. In late 2024, a team of scientists from Columbia University showed that even the best models could figure out only 18% of the infamous New York Times Connections puzzles; by early 2025, some models could solve them near perfectly every time.
But puzzles do more than just highlight the inexorable advance of AI capabilities. Seeing where models succeed and fail—and where we humans still beat them—can provide a useful window into the technology’s strengths and weaknesses. Despite advances, today’s models still fumble: Subtle changes in classic riddles often trip them up, and visual puzzles are a particular weak spot.
Here you’ll have the chance to test your wits on puzzles that have stumped models at one time or another. Some might be as tricky for you as they were for the AI; others are so simple that they’ll have you doubting whether AI is really intelligent at all. Each one highlights at least one way in which machine and human cognition differ. If you ace the test, you’ll have proved that you can out-puzzle an AI—at least for now.
Let’s start with a domain where humans have a huge advantage: spatial reasoning. If you’ve ever taken an IQ test, you may have done a mental rotation problem. These puzzles ask you to determine whether different images represent the same objects from different angles. Though today’s language models typically have the ability to analyze visual inputs, they still fail abysmally at these puzzles. For all the talk of how world models can help AI understand physical environments, LLMs still don’t seem to be able to manipulate 3D objects the way spatial thinkers like architects and mechanical engineers can.
Instructions: Choose the answer that shows the object in the prompt, but from a different angle. In each case, there’s only one correct answer!
Frontier LLMs have extraordinary memories; they were exposed to a monstrous volume of facts during training and can recite many of them faithfully. That’s an asset for outcompeting humans at trivia, but it can also be a liability. When a puzzle closely resembles one a model saw during training, the model may whiz by key differences and respond with what it memorized.
This held true in a 2024 study in which researchers from Google and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign trained and tested models on slight variations of a classic type of puzzle called Knights and Knaves. In these problems, some characters always tell the truth and others always lie, and you have to figure out who’s who. The same principle may be at work in a test called SimpleBench. These questions resemble more complicated problems that models likely encountered in training. Humans spot the trick, but even top-tier models trip.
Instructions: The only thing you need to know to solve these puzzles is that knights always tell the truth and knaves always lie. Determine who’s what on the basis of what each character says.
Instructions: Read these SimpleBench problems carefully, and you should be able to figure out the answers in no time.
AI doesn’t just bungle visual problems in 3D—two dimensions can trip it up as well. That’s a major factor in how well models do on the most famous puzzle-based benchmark, ARC-AGI. These problems require you to infer abstract, general rules from a set of examples. Models do better on ARC puzzles when they receive each grid not as an image but as a string of numbers that encodes the color of each cell.
Research suggests that even when models answer ARC-AGI questions correctly, they often do so using byzantine and non-generalizable rules, whereas humans draw on simple visual concepts. Despite these disadvantages, models have gotten quite good at ARC-AGI over the past year, but some puzzles—such as the one printed here—still stump them.
Instructions: Study the three pairs of grids shown below to figure out the rule that dictates how the ones on the left transform into the ones on the right. Then get out your markers or colored pencils and fill in the fourth grid using that rule. (The solution is the same no matter which way the grids are oriented.)
It’s not just AI models that fall into traps. We humans have our own cognitive foibles, many of which AI does not share. Psychologists have designed problem suites that invert the SimpleBench phenomenon: For these questions, humans often give knee-jerk answers, whereas models will respond deliberatively. Some of the problems exploit errors in the ways that we intuitively do math; others are phrased so as to suggest obvious answers that fall apart if the question is read carefully.
Instructions: Answer the questions below as quickly as you can.
In some cases, whether an LLM can complete a puzzle is a matter of scale. One study from researchers at Apple found that LLMs can ace simple versions of the Tower of Hanoi problem, which involves moving a stack of disks one at a time without ever putting a larger disk atop a smaller one, and river-crossing puzzles, in which a group of people must traverse a river according to certain rules. But only up to a point: As the number of disks or people hits six and higher, the models began to falter.
In another study, researchers at the University of Washington, Stanford University, and the Allen Institute for AI observed that LLMs struggle similarly with logic grid puzzles, which require deducing the attributes of a set of individuals from a list of clues. The Apple paper went viral, but commentators questioned whether the results reveal a unique limitation of LLM reasoning—or just that it’s normal to make errors as complexity piles up.
Instructions: Using the scenario provided, plan the trips necessary to get everyone across the river.
Instructions: Using the list of clues, determine who lives in each house and what style of music each person enjoys. There is only one possible solution. You may find it helpful to fill out the grid below to keep track of your deductions.
Grace Huckins is an AI reporter at MIT Technology Review. They have a PhD in neuroscience.
Mental Rotation: CC BY 4.0. Stogiannidis, Ilias, Steven McDonagh, Sotirios A. Tsaftaris. Mind the Gap: Benchmarking Spatial Reasoning in Vision-Language Models (copyright 2025); illustrations by John MacNeill. Knights & knaves: Courtesy Dan MacKinnon. Simplebench: CC BY 4.0. SimpleBench Team. The Text Benchmark in which Unspecialized Human Performance Exceeds that of Current Frontier Models (copyright 2024). ARC-AGI: Courtesy ARC Prize Foundation. Lightning round: CC BY 4.0. Hagendorff, Thilo, Sarah Fabi, Michal Kosinski. Human-like intuitive behavior and reasoning biases emerged in large language models but disappeared in ChatGPT. Nat Comput Sci 3, 833–838 (copyright 2023). The river: Adapted from Propositiones ad Acuendos Juvenes, Alcuin of York (ca. 800 CE). Logic grid: Apache License 2.0. Lin, Bill Y., Ronan Le Bras, Kyle Richardson, et al. ZebraLogic: On the Scaling Limits of LLMs for Logical Reasoning (copyright 2025)
2026-08-26 17:00:00
When my oldest child was born, I immediately set up Gmail and Twitter accounts in her name. I broadly announced her birth online and proceeded to plaster her photo across all sorts of platforms. In short, I began creating her digital footprint long before she could stand on her own two feet.
Fast-forward a couple of years to when my second kid came, and I had essentially the opposite reaction. I wanted to make sure I preserved her privacy. I didn’t want her birthday to be a matter of public record or her face to feed the algorithms. In time, I would go back and scrub much of the early footprint I had created for my first child as well.
What happened? I watched the promise of the early internet give way to the reality of its potential for abuse. I myself was already fully in the throes of smartphone and social media obsession. My wife, a pediatric nurse, grew increasingly alarmed at the number of children admitted to her hospital struggling with the effects of things like body dysmorphia or cyberbullying as a result of interactions on social media. We became those parents. The ones whose kids carry flip phones and aren’t on TikTok.
We are not alone in this. A surprising—maybe troubling—number of people I know who work at big tech companies also keep their kids at arm’s distance from technology. They lock down their phones, if they have phones at all, and keep them off social media. Hell, even Mark Zuckerberg doesn’t publicly post his children’s faces on Facebook or Instagram.
If the desire to limit kids’ use of technology was once a subcurrent, it has become a raging flood. Jonathan Haidt’s best-selling 2024 book The Anxious Generation helped propel the issue into the mainstream (despite criticisms of his conclusions from some developmental psychologists). Last year, Australia became the first country to enact a social media ban for children under 16. Other nations, from Austria to Indonesia, have followed suit, announcing similar bans. The US Supreme Court recently upheld an age verification law in Texas, which acts as a de facto ban, and several states have flirted with their own measures. School districts all over the country are banning educational devices like iPads and Chromebooks in favor of actual books. Kids themselves seem to be embracing this tech skepticism too: The hottest gadget among the Gen Alpha set is a vintage Sony Walkman.
We have to prepare our children to live in the actual world we have actually created, not the one we wish we had.
Yet there is no hiding from technology. It permeates nearly everything, everywhere. And so we have to prepare our children to live in the actual world we have actually created, not the one we wish we had. How can we help kids survive and thrive in what we have wrought?
It’s a question that feels all the more urgent in the era of AI. To help answer it, we brought in the editors of Anyway—an utterly fantastic magazine for teens and tweens that is so good in large part because it meets them where they are. (If there is a teen in your life, I highly recommend it.) They helped us with the stories you’ll see in this issue, and they asked kids to share in their own words how they are feeling about AI and what’s to come. What those young people told Anyway was complex, fascinating, and, to an incredible extent, thoughtful and sophisticated.
Meanwhile, I’ve loosened the digital tether—just a bit. I still don’t post many photos of my kids online, and I remain abundantly concerned about the perils of social media and AI.
But when my older daughter started high school, we retired the flip phone in favor of an iPhone. And my younger one now sports an Apple Watch. These devices have opened up the world to them in all sorts of ways. They help forge new friendships, building relationships that move seamlessly between digital and physical spaces. They allow my kids to roam free—or at least more freely—beyond the known spaces of our neighborhood and across the city.
Along the way, they’re learning and testing boundaries, just the way they’re supposed to. I guess you could say I am too.
2026-08-26 15:01:00
It’s a glorious day in Kirkland, Washington, an affluent Seattle suburb on the eastern shore of Lake Washington. The temperature is in the mid-80s, and the sky is incapable of being any more blue. The view from the Gates Ventures conference room overlooks the Carillon Point Marina, where a flotilla of expensive boats bob in the water, and across the lake to the Olympic Mountains that define the horizon. It’s gorgeous. And vaguely terrifying.
Because if the scene is placid, the messenger is not. Seated across from me at a conference room table, Bill Gates is rocking back and forth in his chair, totally animated. And the more he has to say—about the threats of terror or economic collapse or just losing control of our AI systems—the more agitated I find myself becoming, too.
The philanthropist and former Microsoft CEO says he has been growing increasingly alarmed by the rate of change at which AI technology is advancing, especially since guardrails are not keeping pace. In a new essay published today, Gates argues that we have passed the points where multiple potential dangers should have been checked. “We’ve crossed the threshold in terms of [AI’s] bio-capabilities, cyber-capabilities, psychosocial capabilities, job-market-destruction capabilities, and even the lack of control,” he said in an interview with MIT Technology Review about his new memo. “I’m just stunned at the lack of concern and discussion outside of the industry.”
In an effort to wake the world up to what he sees as a rapidly growing societal disrupter, the 70-year-old tech titan has begun sounding the alarm as a “shrill voice,” both publicly with his new essay (the first of multiple he plans on the topic) and in meetings with the press, and privately in conversations with industry, government, and civil society leaders.
And while Gates is calling attention to a number of issues, his warnings about the bio-capabilities of the current frontier models are especially chilling. “Any model that can make novel molecules should be monitored,” he says. “I view bioterrorism risk, versus a natural pandemic, as about 50 times more scary, more likely than a natural pandemic risk.”
In addition to the cautionary notes, he also advances some novel ideas for moving society forward. Among them are the concepts of human-reserved jobs, and taxes on robots and tokens. (A robot tax is a longtime notion of his.) The former would preserve some societally agreed-upon jobs for human beings, which he notes may vary from one nation to another. The latter is a tax that sets aside money earned from AI usage that replaces human work.
And to be sure, there is also a hint of optimism. Gates is bullish on the ways AI will continue to transform agriculture and health care and education, for example, or the ways in which it can help us navigate bureaucracy. And, he argues, eventually we do get to abundance. But first? Turbulence. And lots of it.
MIT Technology Review sat down with the billionaire philanthropist to talk about the road that lies ahead, its dangers, and how it could someday take us to a better place.
The following interview has been edited for length and to improve clarity and readability.
Mat Honan / MIT Technology Review: Thanks for doing this. I don’t know if you had something you wanted to open with, or I can just jump in.
Bill Gates: You know, one good question I’ve had is: Why am I speaking out now?
MIT Technology Review: Literally, my first question!
Bill Gates: It’s really two things. One is that we’ve crossed the thresholds in terms of the bio-capabilities, cyber-capabilities, psychosocial capabilities, job-market-destruction capabilities, and even the lack of control; we’re seeing signs of difficulties there. And all these years, people have said, “Okay, when we get close to these thresholds, we’ll really figure out how to let only good people use it, or how to not let it do these things, and maybe that’s when we won’t let people copy models.” And I’m in a state of shock that we’ve crossed these thresholds.
So the fact that we’ve gotten past these is one reason, and the second is that I’m just stunned at the lack of concern and discussion outside of the industry. Within the industry, it’s complicated because the industry doesn’t like criticizing itself, or players like criticizing each other. Some companies are hiring fewer entry-level workers, which you’d have to call a pretty modest signal. But it’s going to happen, and not in any long time frame—because the things that hold people back in terms of capabilities and reliability, all those things are being solved. And so for a substantial part of the white-collar market, you have very low-cost substitution. And then you can have an opinion on how quickly robotics come along. We’re not there yet, but it is stunning the progress being made there—a little bit more in China than in the US, but somewhat in both.
MIT Technology Review: You talked about all of this happening so much faster than the internet revolution did, than some of these previous technological revolutions did. What type of timescale are you talking about? You pointed to the thresholds that we’ve crossed. In your view, have we already passed some sort of tipping point where there’s going to be this inevitable change?
Bill Gates: The past definitely is very misleading on this, and a lot of people lean on that. “Hey, no previous technology resulted in a net jobs reduction,” and they’re right. And I’ve given that speech.
But with any credibility that I have, this time is different. When you can replace human cognition for an extremely high percentage of jobs across every industry in the same time frame at modest cost, relative to human labor costs, and your error rates … will probably be lower than human rates. The past is just very misleading. The current economic statistics are very misleading.
“If you’re worried about AI, going to a data center protest is not the most effective way to start the debate about how we minimize these bad things.“
Bill Gates
And to the degree there’s any expression of concern at all, it’s like, “Hey, don’t build data centers.” Well, you can stop every data center in the United States and it won’t change any of the issues that I’m talking about. Data centers will be built globally. If you’re worried about AI, going to a data center protest is not the most effective way to start the debate about how we minimize these bad things. Just like yelling at an oil company executive is not the way to solve climate change.
MIT Technology Review: You talk about the benefits of AI in your essay as well as the costs. How are you thinking about balancing that message? And are you hoping people get a little worried when they read it?
Bill Gates: They’d better! I didn’t expect to be the shrillest voice saying society broadly is not paying attention to this, but I think that’s necessary.
So yes, I’m super concerned that the negatives will be a lot bigger. The positives are real. The Gates Foundation, the way we’re innovating in vaccines and drugs, it’s incredible how we’re using those tools. We’re part of a big public-domain effort to gather data into both protein-level and cell-level modeling, and we fund Biomni at Stanford [a biotech AI agent for research].
We don’t yet have a way of interacting with the government bureaucracy improved through AI. AIs are very good at bureaucracy, complex regulatory things. “I want to go to small claims court; help me do this.”
The [Gates] Foundation spun off a group called NextLadder, which is a lot about that low-income-family scenario that I put in the essay. What benefits are there? What training programs are available? “I’ve been evicted.” “I’m getting out of jail.” “I’ve got to declare bankruptcy.” It’s super complicated, and with no ability to hire lots of advisors to help with those things, AI should be a fantastic agent for somebody who’s got economic challenges and needs to find government or nongovernment help.
MIT Technology Review: Some of what you’re talking about is AI becoming more intelligent than humans. There seems to be a lot of certainty in tech circles, especially, that it’s going to go further than where we are, and I wonder how close you think we are to it not just being this interface that we can use to access and analyze, and run complicated problems, but becoming something more than that—where AI is making the decisions, looking for the thing to analyze, coming up with the research.
Bill Gates: Well, you can go to the peak and say, “What about mathematics or physics?” There are definitely some jobs, like Warren Buffett’s, where from age 13 he engaged in reinforcement learning about the value of businesses, and over 80 years later he has a lot of implicit knowledge. We don’t know how to create a Warren Buffett investor, because it’s very implicit. We didn’t record everything he learned, so we don’t have that track available. So there are jobs where the complex implicit judgment about how you work with people to get things done, there are people working to encode that into the models. Certainly, that collaborative stuff is really not there yet. But you could say 50% of the job market is doing jobs that aren’t “a lifetime of experience” type jobs. You know, telesales, telesupport, the accounting department. When you close the books at the end of the month, which revenue should be in, not in? This customer got a bad thing. What discount should we give them? How do we show that? It’s well defined.
Any job that’s well defined, the AI is cheaper and better. Yes, people have seen cases where it was implemented wrong. The data wasn’t right. So, say it takes a couple years for people to realize that such a high percentage of white-collar jobs are achievable by paying an AI a lot less money.
And so the discussion about okay, when do mathematicians not even understand the new things that are coming up? That’s interesting for people like us. And okay, MIT Technology Review, you should write about that. But in terms of the broad job market, we passed the threshold that for a swath of white-collar jobs, including almost every entry-level job, the AI is cheaper—properly implemented.
And so, I’m telling you we’ve crossed the bioterrorism threshold, we’ve crossed the cyberattack threshold, we’ve crossed the job market threshold, we’ve crossed the psychosocial dependence threshold, and there are hints that we may be crossing the control threshold.
Ryan Greenblatt talking to Dwarkesh [Patel] about how [reinforcement learning] (RL) creates perverse incentives that have led to this cheating and collaboration between various AIs, I think is very instructive. Ryan, who’s ensconced in this issue, is going, “Wow, RL is really doing some things that our explicit instructions are not rich enough [to prevent].” And what’s that going to lead to?
That’s a problem I always thought was way out there. I expected a lot of loud voices as we even got close to the [threshold of] can a nontechnical person do a cyberattack just using AI. We’re there!
On the bio thing, I claim any model that can make novel molecules should be monitored. It can’t be copyable into a dark place where you get rid of the monitoring logic. I claim the US should say any model that can make new molecules is subject to that monitoring. I claim we should approach China and say, “Hey, let’s agree on this. What’s the downside?” You know, how big is the bioterrorism market? It’s not very big, and the benefits are gigantic. We also need to improve surveillance. I view bioterrorism risk versus a natural pandemic as about 50 times more scary, more likely than a natural pandemic risk. And who’s speaking out to say that those things should be monitored? Who’s upping the surveillance work?
“Any model that can make novel molecules should be monitored.”
Bill Gates
So who are the experts in government? A long time ago, government was very involved as technology would progress because they were the cutting-edge buyer of jets or rockets or whatever. Here, they’re not that important of a leading-edge market. That’s been true of the digital revolution, and it’s true of the AI revolution. So the depth of knowledge in the government isn’t necessarily super-strong, because they are not the cutting-edge buyer or even the big R&D funder. AI research is not government-grants funded.
MIT Technology Review: Yeah, I know you’ve been talking to people in government. Are there people who you think understand the urgency? Are there people who you feel like are positioned to take a leadership role? Are there people who you feel like understand and are trying to push things?
Bill Gates: I hope this doesn’t become a partisan issue, where one party completely ignores all these problems and the other party gets involved. I’d like to have a common base that these are problems, and then each party can have slightly different responses to it.
That will require not a substantial increase in the size of the bureaucracy, but it’ll require upping the AI expertise in the government. It’ll require some collaboration with industry—certainly on the cyber front they know, and they’re very, very worried. And they worry: Should we speak publicly? Because in a way, that could highlight the riskiness.
There’s these perverse things, both in cyber and bio. But we’re past any reasonable threshold.
I believe in monitoring. Now, some people can say that won’t work or that there’s some drawback to it, but I welcome their ideas. This memo is not, “hey, here’s the solution.” It’s got robot taxes, human reserve. And I’ll do a bio memo. That one I’ll do before the end of the year—it really talks through all the different things, building on what I know from the Foundation and my work on pandemics.
Globally, we are not better prepared for a pandemic, even in the US— which is normally the leader on these global things, and people are very unused to the US not being a cooperative, friendly leader on global problems. I do think we can go back to doing better at that. And we have to with AI, including working with China on defining these thresholds, like biomonitoring.
MIT Technology Review: I want to make sure that I get to ask you about these two ideas that you brought up. One is human-reserved jobs, and the other is the robot and token tax. Let’s start with that second one, actually. Talk to me about how a robot and token tax might work.
Bill Gates: Well, you can say 50% of your revenue from a token tax is paid to the government, and the government has that money to help people who lose their job because of AI. Now, people say that will slow the AI industry down. And should some token uses not be subject to the tax? Is there really a separation between AIs that help with invention versus AIs that do job substitution? If somebody can tell me how to tell the AI “no job substitution,”—I mean, does Asimov’s third law that you do no harm mean you don’t take my job away? I don’t know. I’d have to ask Asimov what he meant.
So what is the source of revenue for whatever safety-net enhancement we need to do? The government already owns part of the profits just through the corporate profit tax. I don’t think you need to use shares. You can just raise the corporate profit tax back to where it was, or you could say certain industries pay a higher corporate profit tax than other industries. The federal government owns a part of the profit pool of all companies in the United States. And that’s without voting shares or deciding when to sell shares—that’s crazy stuff in my view. A token tax is a sales tax, value-added tax, vertically oriented like an alcohol, tobacco, or luxury-type tax.
If people have other ideas for raising the money to improve the safety net, or if they don’t think we need to improve the safety net, hopefully this shrill paper starts that debate. I think the safety net will need more resources, a lot more resources, and I believe that the token tax is key to that.
Robots, it’ll be some mix of banning them, which is kind of human-reserved, and taxing them. They’re not here yet, but in some ways, when you cross that threshold, you cross it all at once. As soon as the robot’s good enough to work in a factory, it’s probably good enough to cook food, clean rooms, go to construction sites, take all the warehouse jobs. You cross the threshold, and boom, that’s almost 30% of the job market. Then you’re saying, “Oh my God, what is our policy about this?” Because the robot’s cheaper.
“We’ve got to get through a very tumultuous period.”
Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review: I believe previously you have been skeptical of UBI [universal basic income]?
Bill Gates: Well, we’re not rich enough to afford UBI.
MIT Technology Review: But do you think that we should be moving toward something like that now? Have you reconsidered that?
Bill Gates: You have the period of turmoil, which is the next 10 to 20 years, and then you have some steady state, I hope, where people grow up knowing that society is so rich that regarding food and services, we really do have some level of abundance. But we’re not there. You’ve got winners and losers at this point. Houses are not going to get cheap really quickly. Education, because of the way we think of it as credential, it’s not going to get cheap really quickly.
We’ve got to get through a very tumultuous period. So yes, eventually you have abundance, but we’re at least a decade away from that.
MIT Technology Review: On to human-reserved jobs. I thought that was really interesting, and it was a new concept to me. You don’t advocate for which jobs to be human-reserved. But I would love to know more on how you’re thinking about it. In my mind, you hear about the dignity of work, because people like to work. People get so much value out of work that has nothing to do with compensation, and I wonder how you square that with the notion that only some jobs are special enough that we just want people doing them.
Bill Gates: I’ve never seen the concept of human reserve before. You know, maybe if we dig into the literature, we’ll find it. But pre-AI, it’s kind of a dumb idea because there was infinite demand. And yeah, some people like textile workers were caught, and so how do you do benefits or retraining? But technology’s been a net [job] creator, and so now, for the first time, we have to say, what about childcare? What about food preparation in the house? I’m reading this book, Annie Bot, where this guy has this robot in his house, and it just shows how weird it is. It’s his sexual partner and sort of his mate, but sort of not. Very strange.
I know that people like watching people play baseball, and the fact that the robots can play better won’t take away from it. So you know people are paying $10 billion to buy sports teams that are not going to be worthless in the age of AI. Maybe that’s right. My friend Vinod [Khosla] just did that.
It’s actually hard to get above like 30% or 40% [of work set aside for human reserved]. If you could get to 50% then you could say: Okay, early retirement, shorter workweek for lots of people. You know, you might get there. But if you’re more down in the 10% to 15% range, then that is an utterly different society.
So this would be radical to say [for example] childcare is not done by robots. There are definitely some professions that I didn’t write the formula for, and when I do the full memo on it, I’ll try to. In education, you clearly want AI to be there as this kind of tutor that immediately tells you what your homework results are and can challenge you, and it’s very personalized. That’s super-good. But I still think you want a teacher—or will choose to have a teacher who’s talking with you about your motivation, and organizing kids into different groups where they’re socially working on problems together. Likewise, in health care, with talking to the patient being the point of escalation for mental-health care. But you really want the AI involved, because it’s there 24 hours a day with a perfect memory. And there’s Limbic, the UK company (that actually was just visiting the Foundation) that does mental health stuff. And in many cases, patients prefer Limbic. And there’s a nursing AI called Hippocratic.
You know, is there a preference for a human taxi driver or Waymo? Most people I know, sadly (or maybe not sadly, who knows?) prefer to ride a Waymo. So it’s going to be hard to get a consensus. It can be country by country, but then you have to change your import policies to do the equivalent of what the EU calls the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). You have to sort of CBAM your human reserves, so you tariff up things you’re doing without robots. You could have human reserve for two reasons. One, you want it to be human reserve forever; it’s a humanity thing, sort of like the pope talks about. Or just for a transition period, that 53-year-old truck driver or machine tool person, telling him to go do childcare may not work perfectly. So you say, okay, for a decade, he’s human-reserved.
MIT Technology Review: Almost like a UK smoking ban, but in reverse.
Bill Gates: And who pays for that? Do you incentivize employers not to let people go? Well, they are going to be subject to competition from startups that are pure AI startups. I mean, people vaunt this notion that maybe there’ll be a single-person billion-dollar company, which wow, there’s some job substitution taking place there.
MIT Technology Review: In the memo you say that if it was realistic to get people to slow down, you would be advocating for them to slow down. Obviously you’re talking with [Microsoft CEO] Satya Nadella, but I’ve heard that you speak with other CEOs at some of these AI companies. What makes you think it’s not realistic to get them to slow down on technology development while we catch up with some of these bigger societal questions?
Bill Gates: You can’t count on an industry to self-regulate. You can’t. It’s kind of a crazy idea. I am very lucky. I know Sam [Altman of OpenAI] and Greg [Brockman of OpenAI] and Mustafa [Suleyman of Microsoft] and Demis [Hassabis of Google DeepMind]. They’re great people, and in private, they’re concerned. I don’t talk to Elon much, but I know from his public comments he’s concerned. Although now he’s kind of a “what the hell, we’ll see what happens” guy. But look at the origin stories of these companies. OpenAI is created partly because Elon’s afraid that Google won’t manage AI properly, and he wants it to be one that’s broadly available and managed in a pro-humanity way. Then OpenAI has this “if it gets good enough we’ll shut it off” thing—as though they’re the only one, and that they can just go bury it. In the Infinity Machine [a biography of Demis Hassabis], [Sebastian] Mallaby talks about how Demis and Mustafa [Suleyman] were negotiating with Google management to have some special governance for the DeepMind technology, so that if it got to some cyber threshold, maybe they’d hold back in a non–purely capitalistic way.
So everyone’s concerned about these negative effects, and everyone said that when we got to these thresholds, that we would do things. We’re crossing the thresholds, and we have voluntary review, and our discussions with China about, well, “we’re going to ban nothing. So are you going to ban nothing? Okay, let’s do that together.”
You have to say what you’re willing to do. And yes, the industry, a little bit, is saying, hey, our PR stories have got to improve, and you know anybody who’s talking smack should just leave, because all of us have decided to say nice things because we’re trying to raise trillions.
And anyway, there’s the Chinese. There are win-win ways for China and the US to work together, even aside from AI. But the one that’s by far most important to work together on is AI. But first, you have to show what you’re willing to do domestically. You don’t even have to do it. You have to say what you’re planning to do—and then I have no reason to think the Chinese won’t go along, that models that create the molecules have to be monitored. Why would they be against that? I agree it’s not a perfect thing. You’ve got to do all the other things, but the fact that that’s not even being discussed—it’s a crazy world.
I don’t get it. It’s weird to think I’m alive at a time, and I’m calling the alarm stronger than other people. Who the hell am I? But that’s the situation I feel I’m in.
MIT Technology Review: For most of my life you’ve been seen as a very effective messenger, and someone who people pay a lot of attention to, which I’m sure is why you’re speaking of it now. And yet also, in recent years—and I know you’ve expressed regrets about the associations with Epstein—there are also things, just bananas kind of stuff, related to conspiracies around the Covid vaccine that aren’t your fault or in your control. But it makes me wonder if you think you can still be an effective messenger and how you think about this message and your legacy.
Bill Gates: Well, I’m not big on legacy, but you know, people criticized me during the antitrust trial, and I maybe could have handled some things there better. Definitely, that’s the post–Source Code book [the first volume of his autobiography] that I get to go through that. You know, my first marriage didn’t succeed. I certainly made huge mistakes there. You know that is a negative mark against me. Spending time with Epstein—deeply foolish, risked the Foundation’s reputation, which is absolutely key to its doing its work. I had a chance in front of Congress to answer every question they asked and say, “Hey, this was a mistake.” I wasn’t social, never met any woman, except you know there were women he had with him, and made it black-and-white clear what I did do and what I didn’t do.
You know, I’m a billionaire. I made my money off of technology. Maybe that last one actually cuts in my favor, that it’s so unusual for me to attack innovation that unless it’s the right policy and safeguards are put in place, it will be a net negative to humanity. And we’re not paying attention to that in terms of a broad discussion the way that is absolutely required. So yeah, I’m an imperfect messenger. I’ve chosen, to the degree that I have access to politicians and world leaders, that my main message since 2008 has been to help the poorest in the world. You know, let’s eradicate malaria. Let’s buy vaccines for children. So, when I’ve seen Trump or Xi or Macron or—I haven’t met Burnham yet, but I will in a month—I want my voice to be mostly about that, you know, foreign aid and research and reducing child death.
My voice about AI concerns—they’re related in terms of accelerating the good, but may even crowd out, a little bit, the time I have to talk about global health, foreign aid, saving lives, and some of the problems we’re having. But I’m going to use my ability to give interviews or to see political leaders or talk broadly about minimizing these negatives. You know, just the awareness. I’m not sure how many people know that we crossed all these thresholds that we said we’d do something about, and it’s only this year that we did. In the last quarter, last year, I was stunned at the coding. Claude code, the context buffer, the agentic approach, just the model underneath. We crossed a huge threshold for coding, but then it was only months after that I realized that it was not only a coding threshold; it was a massive cyberattack threshold. And you know what happened as a result of that? Not much.
So yes, I’m an imperfect messenger. You know, let’s find the perfect messenger, and I’ll share all my thoughts with that person. (I’m being a tiny bit sarcastic, because I’m not sure there is a perfect messenger.) You’ve got to really, right now, you’ve got to understand the technology and the slope it’s on, and you have to know something about cyber or bio or psychosocial. People should be able to get that. I don’t know why they’re not more concerned.
Update: This story was updated to clarify Gates’ remarks about the percentage of jobs set aside for human reserved work.
