2026-02-22 01:00:15
2. Financial Market Model and Worst-Case Optimization Problem
3. Solution to the Post-Crash Problem
4. Solution to the Pre-Crash Problem
5. A BSDE Characterization of Indifferences Strategies
Acknowledgments and References
\ Appendix A. Proofs from Section 3
Appendix B. Proofs of BASDE Results from Section 5
Appendix C. Proofs of (CIR) Results from Section 6
\ A particularly important choice of those parameters leads to the following version of the Bates model [5] and Heston model [24], respectively:
\
\
\ In addition, we need the following integrability assumptions on the market coefficients λ and σ:
\
\ Admissible portfolio processes. We restrict our attention to admissible portfolio processes with continuous paths.
\
\ Note that the SDEs above are driven by the Brownian motion W with coefficients that are measurable w.r.t. a larger filtration than the one generated by W only.
\
\ The solution to the above SDE can then be given explicitly:
\
\
\
:::info Authors:
(1) Sascha Desmettre;
(2) Sebastian Merkel;
(3) Annalena Mickel;
(4) Alexander Steinicke.
:::
:::info This paper is available on arxiv under CC BY 4.0 DEED license.
:::
[1] This means we rule out short sales of the risky asset.
\
2026-02-22 00:02:42
How are you, hacker?
🪐 What’s happening in tech today, February 21, 2026?
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By @andreydidovskiy [ 15 Min read ] A 2026 outlook on macro chaos and crypto’s maturation—tokenization, privacy, stablecoins, commodities, and prediction markets shape the next phase. Read More.
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2026-02-21 20:45:04
:::info Astounding Stories of Super-Science February, 2026, by Astounding Stories is part of HackerNoon’s Book Blog Post series. You can jump to any chapter in this book here. The Moors and the Fens, volume 1 (of 3) - Chapter XI: The Baronet’s First-born
By J. H. Riddell
:::
But as the mariner, tossing on the bosom of the ever-restless, always treacherous, ocean, clings with might and main to the quivering mast, though aloft storms surround, and tempests howl about him, whilst below lies the sure, certain calm of the grave, so the miser baronet resolutely grasped the volume of life, perhaps with even a firmer clutch than he might have done, had its numerous pages contained the story of an existence devoted to the good and well-being of his fellow-creatures. As the slave strives for freedom, as the wretched do for peace, as the weary pine for rest, as the drowning catch at straws, as the sailor seizes the saving spar,—so, with similar eagerness, Sir Ernest kept an unrelaxing hand on that which many an one would gladly relinquish any day; for more than mothers love their children and some men love fame, than others love 196station, than the young love pleasure, or the old repose, the miser loved gold: dearer was it unto his soul than mortal affection or immortal expectations; than comfort, or ease, or luxury, or virtue, or principle: the hope of adding the merest trifle to his hoard seemed more in his eyes than the hope of salvation; the dread of letting one sixpence pass by his greedy hand swallowed up all fear or horror of perdition.
Though life was to him a mere sordid existence, he resolved to “take the most out of it,” as he did out of everything else: gold was the only thing he cared for, and, to go on acquiring it, life was necessary; and so he clung to the latter and amassed the former with a perseverance which, if employed in a better cause, would have made him an unspeakable benefactor to his species.
The wrinkles on his withered face grew daily deeper; the lines below his eyes and round his mouth became marked and fixed, as if they had been chiselled there; the twisted veins on his high narrow forehead looked, spite of the sallow skin that only partially concealed them, like crawling reptiles wandering through his flesh; his hands seemed to get more like talons—the long colourless nails like claws; his tone grew shriller and harsher; his step 197more uncertain and rapid than ever; his temper more unbearable; his mood more changeable; his spirit more litigious: but still the bright light of former times gleamed in his eyes; there was purpose in his thought, command in his voice, energy in his mind: age might do its worst upon him, but Sir Ernest defied it to kill him; he shook one trembling hand undauntedly in the face of time, and, laying the other firmly on the principle of vitality, refused to die. Men, with no business, no purpose, no plan, might lie down in their narrow graves if it so pleased them any day; but the miser had work to do, which, if properly carried out, would last him for ever: and so he lived on, faithfully serving his God as few men serve their God. He never attempted the impossible task of serving two masters; but, taking Mammon for his, worked and slaved and toiled at his bidding with fifty times more vigour and determination than those do who profess to be laying up treasures for themselves in that land “where neither moth nor rust doth corrupt, and where thieves do not break through and steal.” He lived on—and Ernest waited.
As men do wait who wish for what they dared not speak of—with outward patience, with intense irritability, with feverish thirst, and dark heart, and 198darker reveries; saved from utter ruin by one good purpose, by one unselfish object which he strove to gain, not for his own sake, but for that of Henry.
He had formed a resolution the day of his brother’s departure, about which he never said a syllable to any one, which was to scrape together, by some indefinite means, an amount sufficient to buy Henry a commission. Many amiable persons, as they are usually termed, constantly plan generous and philanthropic projects, but never carry them out; and others, who are charmed by their wordy benevolence, take the will for the deed, and think better of such empty talkers than of their silenter fellows, who talk not at all and act much. With Ernest, however, to think was not to speak, but to do; to resolve was to perform, not brilliantly or rapidly, but silently and probably tardily.
He neither possessed the hope nor the talents of his brother; but he had a kind of invincible obstinacy, or adhesiveness, of disposition, which caused him, whenever he had once made up his mind on any point, to stick thereto with unswerving tenacity. It might be years after,—it might be towards the close of life,—other and brighter prospects might arise before him, obstacles might present themselves, difficulties appear, but it was much the same to him: 199he walked aside, or round, or over; he stood still, or strode on; but whichever course he pursued, it was in his character to keep his eye ever steadily fixed on the object he had once determined to reach, and never for one moment to remove his gaze from the contemplation thereof. To a nature like this, it was a matter of no small importance what he decided was worth striving or waiting for in life. As weak characters change their ideas every hour, it follows, par consequence, that what they resolve to do to-day signifies not in the least, as it is quite certain not to be carried out to-morrow: but, with a man whose resolves are not to be shaken, it becomes almost an affair of temporal and eternal welfare that he shall resolve well, or else not at all; for, if the bad be chosen, it cannot, in the hands of one blessed or cursed with such a temperament, work for aught else than evil; and, if the good be embraced, it can never, even by a mischance, turn out completely ill.
Thus it was fortunate that, while much of wrong entered Ernest’s mind, right had obtained part possession of his soul too; wherefore the one, guided, and the other clouded, his life: his heart resembled the briny ocean, filled to suffocation with unhealthy thoughts and dangerous wishes; but, affection for 200Henry, dashing like the rapid mountain torrent through the flood, kept still a portion of his nature pure and undefiled. As in the natural world, so in the moral; the two waters ebbed and flowed ceaselessly, but never mingled—a drop of the salt never mixed with the other: the brine never became fresh, nor the fresh, brine. Living a life so lonely and retired, neither passion ever got so far from land as to be swallowed up in that larger ocean which cools hatreds, quenches loves, tears the magnifying glass—self-pity—from the eye and reveals wrongs, as they frequently are, mere bubbles on the surface; which divides friends, reconciles enemies, makes some better, many worse, mends a few, mars more; which most pant to enter; which all are loath to leave; that busy, ever-varying, ever-deceitful, ever-inviting ocean, on which all sigh to try their frail barks; whose characteristic is turmoil, whose mandate is toil, whose boundary is eternity; over whose surface keeps ever sailing the grim pilot, Death,—who takes one from his pleasure boat and another from his merchant vessel; the child from his little skiff; the fisherman from his tarry yawl; the officer from the man of war; the pirate from his ill-gotten prize; the traveller from his comfortless ship: who picks off a man from the crew of every bark, and 201removes them from that mighty ocean, the World, for ever.
In that bustling arena Ernest Ivraine, though he might have lost something, would assuredly have gained much; but he had determined to sit out the drama of his father’s existence till the curtain finally dropped on the last act of the interminable piece. And whilst he wearied over scene after scene of that which some deem a comedy, and others a tragedy—life,—he strove to diversify the incidents of his own existence a little, by working earnestly at the plan he had formed for Henry’s advancement that morning when they parted. Often, when sleep—that heaven-sent angel which visits millions of the poor and needy, and passes by the couches of those who toil not with their bodies for their daily bread—refused to fall either lightly or heavily, or, in fact, at all on his weary eyelids, Ernest began to reflect about his brother, so refined in his tastes, so striking in appearance, so tender of heart, living as a common soldier amongst rude companions, far away from any friend, prevented by rank and circumstances from forming a single acquaintance in his own grade of society. He thought of his dead mother and his surviving parent; of his home and its occupants; of the trifling sum which could raise 202Henry and emancipate both; and, knowing how hopeless it would be to expect to wring even a guinea from the miser’s chest, he vowed firmly to work out his brother’s deliverance by some means, and wait patiently himself till destiny should do the same good generous turn by him.
Most amongst us feel wonderfully inclined to believe in the assertion of “where there’s a will there’s a way;” but no one blessed by that worthy dame, whom we call our mother—Nature—with half an ounce of the invaluable commodity, rarely to be met with, always to be devoutly prayed for,—yclept common sense, can deny that same way often proves a most desperately tedious and round-about one. So at least Ernest Ivraine found: there was not a device or an expedient which he did not think of to gain money; he spared no time, nor thought, nor fatigue, to become the possessor of so many hundred pounds in hard cash. But, though he did make some way, he discovered his crippled efforts so mightily resembled trying to cut through a log of timber with an oyster knife, that fifty times he would have abandoned his effort in disgust and despair had something stronger than love of self not held him to his weary, money-getting, sterile post.
203About a large property, barren though it may be, there are many perfectly legitimate openings for a son to gain a little of the precious metal, even though his parent be lord and master of the estate and entitled to the revenues derivable therefrom. So soon as Ernest perceived this fact, he wondered it had never revealed itself to his understanding before, and became, not like Nimrod, a mighty hunter, but an amateur farmer, who grew learned in all sorts of agricultural mysteries, who came to know the value of a sheep, the weight of that Jewish horror—the pig, the market value of a cow, and, above all, the intrinsic beauty and worth of that finest amongst animals—a horse.
It is not, perhaps, very desirable for any gentleman to become “professionally versed” in this latter point, since knowledge of racers and acquaintance with that numerous and ill-reputed class, called “jobbers,” generally brings individuals into company where, to say the least of it, they had best not be, and not unfrequently conducts them to that disagreeable finale, the Court of Bankruptcy. But Ernest Ivraine was too proud and reserved ever to make friends, or rather familiars, of his inferiors: no one could assert his acquaintances were ostlers, that his drawing-room was the stable, his associates men 204who at “Tattersalls do congregate.” He had no taste for races,—no propensity to, or predilection for, gambling; he never entered a horse for a “Cup” anywhere, he made no bets, took no odds: he reared and sold for employment and for—Henry.
There were not wanting those amongst his connections, who had formerly termed him a mercenary though indolent hanger-on for the crumbs that might fall to his greedy hand from death’s table, who now termed him, in angry contempt, “a gentleman horse-jockey:” but, if he did lay himself in the slightest degree open to such an imputation, surely the deed, in this instance, justified the means; for nothing could be nobler than to aid a struggling brother; and if trading in black and grey and brown and chesnut quadrupeds be not the most respectable profession in the world, it is no worse than many another, if followed fairly and honestly.
Sir Ernest laughed in his most diabolical manner at those who represented that his son had fairly started in the race on that road which is universally admitted to lead to ruin. “There is more in that fellow than I ever thought,” he said; “he is making Paradise of real value: he gives me the whole of the profits, and I let him, now and then, have an animal to rear and get what he can out of it. He 205wants a small sum of money, he says, for something or other; and, as he improves my property, I humour his whim: he adds, he is “happier” employed about the place, seeing after the labourers, and so forth, than in doing nothing; and as, though he looks no happier than before, he benefits my purse, I agree to his fancy. Mutual accommodation, reciprocal advantages! father and son, owner and heir, pulling the same way—for once working disinterestedly together! ha! ha!” and the old man chuckled at the idea till the veins in his forehead became more conspicuous, and the expression of his countenance less human than ever.
And, in truth, as years rolled on, the father and the son did seem to agree so admirably, and to become so communicative, after their extraordinary fashion, that relatives, far and near, trembled for their respective interests in the old man’s will, and silently struck an all important nought from the sum they had once fondly hoped he would leave them; whilst Ernest first made shillings pounds, and pounds twenties, and twenties hundreds, and silently gathered together the sum needful to make Henry a lieutenant, and began to feel his hope of a favourable bequest strengthen, and to rejoice he had not, like his brother, cast fortune from him, and 206to yearn more sinfully and eagerly than ever for his father’s death, ere a change came.
Meantime letters arrived from Henry, at long intervals and uncertain periods, as they always do from the proud but unsuccessful; they were short, though affectionate; the high confident tone soon vanished from the sheet. True, he had, occasionally, little scraps of good fortune and approving notice to recount: he was a corporal, had gained a stripe, two stripes, three—he was a sergeant: his officer, a hard, stern, Waterloo hero, had said he was as brave a fellow as ever lived, and prophesied great things for him; but Henry wrote all this in a manner which spoke quite as much of mortification as of pleasure; of a heart that was despairing,—as of one which strove still to hope.
“He was climbing,” he once briefly said. “Yes,” thought Ernest, “but it is as the tortoise climbs up the weary hill to fame; so slowly that life will be finished before he reach the summit, or even a pleasant halting place half-way.”
The awful gulf that separates the ranks from the mess table, which birth, unassisted by influence, cannot cross; which money can only pass with a golden bridge; which valour dyes crimson with its best blood in its frantic endeavours to stem,—yawned 207between Henry and success. It had not seemed so wide or impracticable at a distance; but now, when the impetuous young man stood on the brink, he saw how almost impossible he should find it to reach the other side, without a helping hand stretched forth to aid his endeavour. “No one to help you,” Ernest had said ere he left his home behind him. “No one to help you?”
“Except God and myself,” Henry had then promptly replied; and should he who, amidst the depressing swamps of Paradise had firm faith in the power of God, and humble confidence in the abilities and energies with which his Creator had gifted him, doubt now?
Ah! it is easy for men always to be brave in action; but who, on the surface of this wide earth, is constantly so in thought? Not Henry Ivraine, who grew sick, and faint, and hopeless, even whilst he presented a cheerful face against adverse circumstances, and prepared him sternly, day by day, to meet the weary struggle men call life.
He said he never repented; and it was true, for his motive now for exertion was an honest one; whilst the former, spoken of as the reason for endurance, seemed to his good manly heart, mean and sinful. But he was disappointed, as others have 208been, and others must be,—as it seems to be the will of the Universal Disposer of all events that, at some time or other in their careers, most shall be. He strove to conceal knowledge of this from Ernest; strove to smother the feeling, even as it arose in his breast; and so for years he continued trying to wait patiently for that which he had long begun to fear never would arrive unto him—success.
Ernest grieved for the blight which he saw had fallen on the once hopeful spirit; but he comforted himself by thinking how proudly, after this severe probation, his brother would wear his epaulettes; how nobly he had deserved that which merit seemed impotent to win: he felt glad to reflect that Henry would be made happy by him, and he longed to tell his father that the “vagabond soldier” was at length a respected officer. Dearer to him, oh, far dearer, was Henry the disappointed, than Henry the sanguine. He had possessed love for the latter, it is true; but he had love and sympathy to give to the former, who required both,—yet would fain have concealed that his impetuous daring heart, and unfortunate position, made him stand so wofully in need of two of the best gifts bountiful Heaven has placed in the hands of man to bestow on his stricken and struggling fellow—assistance and compassion.
209Years had rolled away since they two parted; since that night when, by the blazing wood fire, Henry told his final resolution to his brother; since that night when, in semi-darkness, with the half-extinguished logs smouldering on the hearth, he confronted his parent and spoke bitterly, impetuously, but truthfully to him for the last time; since that night when Ernest dissuaded and he persisted; when it was free to both to go, or both to stay; when the elder tossed restlessly on his couch, as the hours given, not to repose, but to mental strife and sad deliberation, hurried, as such hours do, rapidly away, leaving, however, a vivid memory of every painful minute behind them; since that morning when the younger came to the bedside of his brother to hear his choice; when he roused the miser from slumber to say, with his pale, troubled, youthful, noble face confronting the old man’s withered, sunken, sordid visage, that earnest word which comes in stifled tones from the heart when it is almost breaking,—good-bye; since that morning when his father closed the portals of home so securely behind him; when he and Ernest walked through the dense chill darkness preceding dawn for five dreary miles; when he saw the vehicle which was to take him a few stages on his long vague 210journey; when he hung for a moment like a child upon his brother’s neck; and still, though tears blinded his eyes, rushed resolutely to his fate: years had rolled away since then, changed the hopeful stripling into a disappointed man, and his gloomy desponding brother into a scarcely less gloomy hoper; had bronzed the fair cheek and subdued the high spirit of the one, and given a sort of purpose and one or two pleasant thoughts to the other. The first had been boyishly flinging stones at fortune’s apples during all that period, and missed the mark for which he aimed; whilst the second perseveringly climbed the tree, at the top of which hung the inviting cluster he desired to grasp; and, as he ascended, he traded and bartered, to the end that he might fling Henry some of the heavy metal—gold—which, more sure in its operation than those unpolished gems, worth and merit, deemed by most, till seen in precious settings, common worthless stones of no account, was certain to bring down at the first throw the prize he had so long desired.
Years of care, of weariness, of anxiety, of sorrow, had passed over the heads of both men,—for men they were in every thought and feeling now,—and altered them in mind, appearance, hope, expectation, in almost everything, save the old sensations, hate and 211love; for these two passions of the soul render the heart which hath been tried in the evil or the good fire of aversion or affection, invulnerable to change. As steel, thrice tempered, resists the strength of iron, so that portion of man’s nature which hath once really passed through either of the glowing furnaces, lighted by wrongs or kindled by regard, defies the withering, chilling hand of time for ever, and remains through time loving or hating always.
And thus, after the lapse of all those years, Ernest was enabled to remit to Henry the sum needful to raise him from the ranks; and having, as he fondly hoped, after immense difficulty, thrown him the first broad stepping-stone leading to fortune, he turned him with more zeal and interest than ever to watch the progress he himself was making along the road to wealth.
For he had now a sort of double prize in view; he had two to please instead of one: he had not merely an avaricious father, but a widowed aunt, to humour. Wealth, treble what Henry had spurned in those far away days, treble what Ernest had then deemed worth trying for, was now in the house, ready to be taken possession of by some one, whenever the last breath struggled slowly through the 212thin lips of the miser baronet and his still more sordid sister, who, having wedded in girlhood a man rich as some are in this mighty England, had saved and hoarded and made a private purse for herself during his lifetime, and finally induced him at death to bequeath everything which he could will away from his next kin to his childless widow; then fleeing, on the one hand, from the wrath of his relatives and the needy importunities of many of her own, she took refuge in Paradise, where she and Sir Ernest watched each other, as two dogs with bones a-piece watch, lest, by any lack of vigilance, a sovereign or a sixpence should be stolen from the hoard of either to find its way by an unaccountable process called, in vulgar language—thieving, into a money-chest in which it had never previously been locked.
The house that had formerly only been haunted by a tall, lean, meagre, sneering old man, was now also the abode of a little, sharp, vindictive, restless woman, who stole about on tiptoe and caught up everything that her brother overlooked, and pinched the limited establishment more than ever, and looked at morsels of meat and fragments of bread and atoms of wood and little pieces of soap with the eye of a woman who had only one aim and object in life, to save and hoard money as her brother did, only with 213double eagerness, with a double zest, if that were possible.
“Close” was the name which heaven, in the person of her husband, had decreed she should be known by; and assuredly it was not an altogether inappropriate one, for she was so close of hand and heart, that Paradise grew more dreary every day after her arrival. And Ernest felt how insupportable this second chain would have made home, had it not been so beautifully gilded. He waited on now for them both to die, but neither felt inclined to do so at his bidding; he sometimes grew tired of the never-ending delay, but the prize had now become so great that it was better worth striving for than ever; besides which, after lingering so long, he was not going to give up now: and, beyond the gates of Paradise, no treasure lay within his reach; and the treasure within its gates he had at last grown to fancy himself certain of, if he only had patience and never despaired.
For his father was now most confidential and communicative: he consulted him about investments, legal cases, disputed points, contested questions; got him occasionally to transact such business for him as required no money to pass through the hands of his eldest born, who had come to be regarded 214by almost every one as his heir. And Mrs. Close also was, comparatively speaking, gracious to the grave, dark, stern young man, who never crossed her inclinations, who appeared so careful and fond of money-making, and who, above all, valued society so very little, and avoided, as if it had been a pestilence, all intercourse with his kind.
She liked him for his sins and faults; his father had never entertained any particular regard for him, but he had begun lately to feel he was of use to him, and to believe he would keep the guineas and acres of Paradise and the residue of his land and tenements “better together” than any other relative he was so fortunate as to possess. And neither, seeing further than the silent gloomy surface, knew aught of the character which lay beneath, and thought there was “nothing more” in Ernest, of any kind, good, bad, or indifferent.
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This book is part of the public domain. Astounding Stories. (2009). ASTOUNDING STORIES OF SUPER-SCIENCE, FEBRUARY 2026. USA. Project Gutenberg. Release date: February 14, 2026, from https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/77931/pg77931-images.html#Page_99*
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2026-02-21 20:39:08
Crypto was built to be open, fast, and available for everyone, anywhere. It’s also decentralized, with no single central party behind. Free, as in freedom. But it’s not exactly free when we talk about costs. There are fees every time you transact, even if your action isn’t a payment. Since there’s no company handling this, where do those fees go? Why do they exist at all?
Let’s see how those fees are part of the magic, too. \n
Are your fees a payment for Satoshi Nakamoto/Generic Cryptocurrency Developer? Well. Not really. There’s no single central party receiving these fees. No company paying employees or infrastructure; that’s what ‘decentralized’ means. Still, someone has to provide enough resources and equipment for the network to work and for transactions to be validated.
That ‘someone’ is actually many people across the globe. Every distributed, decentralized crypto network is formed by hundreds or thousands of nodes (computers), which are running the needed software, all in sync. So, the fees that are collected from the users are, partly, an incentive for these volunteers to continue their participation in the system.
On Bitcoin, the nodes in charge of creating new blocks of valid transactions are called miners. They receive these fees, plus new coins created by the system. Ethereum has a similar mechanism with ‘gas fees,’ which represent the amount of computing resources that are being spent on a transaction. They pay a portion of the fees to their “validators,” while another portion is burned (erased).
The final destination of these small payments depends on each platform. Some send most or all fees to their version of block producers. Others burn a portion, redirect a part to a treasury, or use them to fund ecosystem development. The exact split depends on each network’s economic design and governance rules.
Transparency is important in crypto, so you’ll always see every cost upfront. Even if the network developers want to change something (like creating a development fund), they’ll surely put that to a vote, and it’ll be very well publicized. No hidden fees in crypto. This is an integral part of how the network coordinates strangers who don’t trust each other but still agree on a shared ledger.
Of course, as we mentioned above, the first reason is incentive. Someone has to fully commit the electricity, hardware, or locked-up funds to validate transactions. Fees reward that job and give participants motivation to play by the rules rather than cheat the system. This’s just for starting, though.
Another reason is protection. Platforms stripped of fees can be maliciously spammed with worthless transactions, resulting in a clogged network for every legitimate participant. By attaching a cost to each action, networks make abuse uneconomical. This is one of the simplest defenses decentralized systems use to stay functional.
There’s also a problem of some transactions taking up more data than the others, especially during high-demand periods. They can’t be processed simultaneously, and the space available isn’t endless. Therefore, some transactions may need to be added before others. During these high-demand times, the network needs a neutral way to organize the data without getting a manager or opening a “customer support” ticket (there’s no customer support, by the way).
It’s important to note that fees change with general network activity, and depending on the size and complexity of each action. For instance, a small payment will charge fewer fees than a smart contract. And the more people use the platform, the more competition there will be for space and priority. Therefore, fees could increase.
During periods of low activity, users will notice a cheaper network. Conversely, busy periods will be the opposite. Sending funds during a high-demand time will result in more fees and slower transactions than during quiet days. That’s true for blockchains, at least. In a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure like Obyte, the more users around, the faster a transaction becomes.
That’s because, instead of miners or “validators,” transactions here are ‘approved’ by their users only. To agree about their order, we have Order Providers (OPs) —special nodes that periodically post transactions that serve as waypoints to organize all other transactions. They don’t have any other power, but they receive part of the fees for their job.
\
Every transaction you send to the DAG, whether it’s a payment or something else, comes with a tiny fee based on how much space it takes up. So, if a transaction uses about 800 bytes of data, the fee is 800 bytes of the currency. That’s the usual case, and in practice it works out to roughly $0.00001 in Obyte’s native coin, GBYTE.
As we can see, transaction fees in crypto networks aren’t a punishment, and they’re not always a reward, either. Those fees are the cost of safety. They’re proof that the ledger is decentralized, meaning it’s open to anyone, and it has protective measures in place to keep the system from being abused.
:::info Featured Vector Image by vectorjuice / Freepik
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2026-02-21 18:00:05
:::tip From political coups (Trump taking in Venezuela’s Maduro) and Epstien files, to eyewatering rallies in metals, agentic AIs breeding anti-human propaganda (clawdbots aggregating on moltbook to create AI language that humans cannot decipher on moltbook) and setting records in the Yen’s Interest Rate; we are halfway into the second month of 2026, and anywhere you turn, it seems as though the sky is falling.
:::
“Absolution Before Rebirth”
Overdosing on the uncertainty brought on by divisive “us vs them” agendas that are amplified by dystopian AI fear mongering and hyper-interdependent global economics, social psychosis is running rampant.
2026 is a midterm year in the United States: a year when opposing political parties cause incredible uproar in an attempt to capture control, be it through the siphoning of capital or the imposition of societal unrest. This polarizing year ripples across continents, dislocating power structures.
Against this backdrop of psycho-social political chaos, we have the digital microcosm of crypto melting at its own hyperbolic pace…
Forged in the hellfire of anti-government rhetoric, the crypto industry we once knew is no more.
The rebellious spirit of self-sovereignty and an independent internet economy, uncorrelated with the rest of the world, has been replaced by its suited big brother and turned into just another industry, or to be more accurate, a digital extension of all other industries, which it was actually intended to be in the first place.
Narratives of financial nihilism are finally shutting down, and a return to the “soul-less” financialization, where cold logic is king and the bottom line matters, is coming alive again. Once, fully crypto-native companies are crossing the corporate chasm and becoming traditionally structured corporations, case in point, Tether.
CT is going absolutely nuts watching the flames of a meme-fueled supercycle fizzle out. The first sign of a healing market.
This is not a bad thing; in fact, it is a natural progression from the grassroots wild west into the mega-corporate mainstream, the same progression that the internet experienced.
As we proceed into the acute phase of distress in the crypto-verse and an era of hyperbolic macroeconomic uncertainty, our cognitive consciousness begs the questions of “How to think” and “what to do”.
As it stands, only TWO things are certain:
At this moment in time, autonomy is becoming evermore important.
LEARN, ASSESS, and THINK FOR YOURSELF.
Sometimes, it helps to find others and bounce a few ideas around.
That is exactly what this piece is intended to do: open a conversation, stimulate some thoughts, and challenge the self-imposed emotional illusions we all encounter.
So let’s take a look into the crystal crypto ball and make a few absolutely random, uneducated, educated guesses about what is/may be ahead of us.
Guessing the outcomes of specific events, and being right about them all, is the art of exponential insider knowledge; might as well throw a dart blindfolded.
However, taking a directional bet could land us closer to the truth. The direction in which 2026 is headed can be summed up in two components: Drainings the Swap and Material Matters.
Borrowing this phrase from everybody’s favorite American president, Donald Trump, draining the swamp refers to three things: \n - cleaning up the excesses \n - returning to value-first thinking \n - recalibration of power distribution
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Cleaning up the excesses refers to the cleansing of misappropriated value. Regardless of what people think, or the Epstein files may say, Donald Trump did something that fundamentally heals society, re-enstating the obvious biological fact that there are two genders. From the Somali Day Care centers to the gender-dysphoria agenda, a lot of money has been funneled into worthless (I would argue harmful) pockets that must be clawed back and guarded against.
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Returning to Value First Thinking builds on the cleansing of excesses but from a more social-first lens. Families should be focused on educating children, not empowering their sexual insecurities. Societies should be collaborating to solve problems, helping one another, not pushing each other down. Creating value should be the first priority of any sentient human being, not endless, mindless consumption. \n
No, I don’t think that the administration will solve all problems, but it’s nice to fantasize about a utopian, healthy world a little.
Recalibration of Power distribution is something on the borderline between political agendas and conspiracy theories. Here, we tread softly, but refer to the placement of decision-making into the hands of “reliable” parties. Who would you rather have shepherding your community: a successful businessman or a neurotic Somali daycare owner?
Please understand, this has nothing to do with political parties; it is definitely influenced heavily, but not solely determined by them.
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Physical goods get their time to shine (pun intended).
The overdrawn hyper-digitization that has taken place over the last 20/30 years put society ahead of its skis.
Yes, AGI/ASI might be here/around the corner, and in that reality, the only thing that will separate man and machine will be the atomic world (at least before robots come online).
2026 will likely give us a chance to appreciate the hard physical objects of value a little more: metals, jewelry, collectibles, fine art, and the simpler things in life.
And now. \n It’s time to throw some darts, to roll the dice with a few general predictions about specific things. The approach here is to acknowledge the direction of evolution, rather than try to pinpoint a single facet of it.
Let’s roll:
While many of these touch on crypto directly, a few are more general subject matter assumptions that are not entirely confined to blockchain/web3, but that do to some degree influence the space. Regardless of what the CT prophets may try to spew, the industry is still (and only will increasingly moreso become) heavily tied to the global economy.
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Somewhat hidden behind the crypto-native term RWA, this is the mega-godfather trend of all crypto trends.
Spanning long before, into, and far beyond 2026, more and more of the world will register, record, and track the ownership of valuable assets on blockchains rather than in Excel spreadsheets or private legacy databases. Larry Fink, easily one of the most influential leaders in finance (CEO of BlackRock), has been talking about the inevitability of all markets moving to tokenization since 2022.
Thus far, a minuscule fraction of the world’s wealth has been brought on-chain, by some measures (less than 0.1%). If it’s true (and I believe it to inevitably be so) that all objects of value will be on-chain, then this category hasn’t even scratched the surface of its potential; we are talking about mind-bending numbers of 999x in growth from here. When accounting for the inflationary forces at play and the growth/arrival of data and service providers for this specific category, the future is abundant with opportunity.
As it specifically pertains to 2026, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a 4x growth take place, doubling the variety of tokenized assets and doubling the amount of existing assets that are tokenized. \n
New geopolitical regimes are establishing a new world order.
Power has always been concentrated in the hands of the upper social classes, and that will not change. What will change is the playground in which they facilitate the show.
2026 will likely cement a new dynamic that determines where attention flows to/from, who is “endowed” with the natural resources for the provision of prosperity, and how trade will happen (in terms of physical supply chain).
There are already inklings of this that have been popping up over the last few years; recent activity is heavily accentuated by places such as Venezuela, Greenland, and the eternally problematic Israel and Iran.
The EU continues to tread down the path of absolute degeneracy with the outright diabolical implication of statements by individuals such as Ursula Von Der Leyen and Christine Lagarde, and the ruinous regulations being put in place, such as in the Netherlands. What was once the birthplace of capital markets has just become its antithesis and the poster child of civil-control corruption by pushing forward a 36% unrealized tax gain on crypto closer to law.
One of the more interesting ones could be Korea, where 2 of the world’s top 3 largest RAM manufacturers are located; sounds like another opportunity to wreak havoc just as with the Taiwan semiconductor situation. One positive potential outcome might be a de-escalation in Ukraine, but only time will tell. \n
This is a two-pronged point, where logic takes precedence, and value accrual becomes the focal point for digital asset market participants. An exodus from memes and a flocking to “real value”.
The supermajority of last “cycle” was confined to memecoins. A few narrative hops between AI, DEPIN, and launchpads ultimately led down the path to memecoins.
Illustrative narratives were confabulated around community/culture money, financial nihilism, and other bombastic topics to validate why Smoking Chicken Fish (SCF) and GigaChad (GIGA) will have economic cults worth billions of dollars.
If last year didn’t make it obvious, then possibly 2026 will, that whatever CT gurus may try to vomit all over the internet, tokens that are entirely based on community by the nature of their virtue imply that the community is the product, which means there is no real economic value being created other than PVP speculation.
Even though there were a few real long-term potential candidates born during this period of insanity, it should come as no surprise that almost all of these “projects” imploded. \n * Quick outtake, the author believes the root of the problem wasn’t in the trial of these wild ideas, it was in the onslaught of supply from malicious operators
The industry has had enough.
People have been licking their wounds and re-evaluating where they should be allocating their capital. This brings them down the rabbit hole of real value tokens; the likes of those with healthy economic designs, real-working products, and more likely than not, no anonymous team or community takeovers.
Most likely digital assets with clear-cut value dynamics expressed as healthy tokenomic designs with concrete value accrual systems (such as buybacks conducted by $HYPE and $PUMP) or extended-niche value, such as privacy and value storage. \n
Explosion in demand for privacy.
Privacy is the next largest permanent zone of value after RWAs. We already got a taste of the privacy crazy at the end of 2025, and there is reason to believe the crazy will continue through 2026.
Measuring this in terms of adoption is tricky, so to evaluate this, we will assume that all metrics supporting public anonymity grow substantially and unilaterally. The activity, as well as the prices of privacy-centric crypto networks and currencies, go up. The entire sector. WAGMI in privacy.
In the privacy stack, we have 3 general buckets: private money, private computation, and privacy protocols.
Protocols tend to have weak value accrual structures, so we will dismiss them. However, among the money and computation, the stickiness of a platform can be permanent.
For the conversation around money, we have two main contenders, those being ZCash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR). There are also a handful of smaller contenders; however, their relative lack of magnitude leads to security leaks that long-term disqualify them. Honorable mention to (DASH).
For the conversation about computation, there is quite a large pool of interesting platforms worth paying attention to. ZKsync (ZK), Railgun (RAIL), Zano (ZANO), Horizen (ZEN), and the new kid on the block, Zama (ZAMA). We can go on to list a handful more, but then we are just as lost as when we started.
The important takeaway here is that over time, these will all likely consolidate around a very small select group, but that potential could be life-changing. \n
Crypto was originally a retail-first product.
The wild west nature, where there was a lack of regulation, made the space exude an aura of “by the people, for the people”.
After years of molestation by scamming groups, the original narrative of self-sovereignty has become a conversation about ETFs, DATs, and regulations.
Now, with greater acceptance around the world by different regulatory bodies, it would be prudent to assume that MORE governments get involved and to a greater extent.
This is a two-sided coin (pun intended). While there will likely be great progress in jurisdictions that embrace the space with favorable regulation, there will more than likely be the arrival of very bad decisions, as made extra clear by the shenanigans coming out of the Netherlands to tax UNREALIZED gains from crypto. \n
Darling of the summer 2020 era, DEFI remains the foundation of crypto technology. Since its unofficial arrival in the post 2018 season, DEFI has been the silent foundation of all crypto technology.
While greed and shady memecoin marketing may have distracted people, the ever-increasing *distrust of **governments from their populations ***and even other governments is the spark to light the DEFI fire. As the need for neutrality keeps rising, the need for DEFI instrumentation becomes all the more pronounced.
2026 is well positioned to be the year in which decades of progress is made. \n Marked by the consolidation around good tech and the truncation of unsustainable wannabes, we will hopefully see a reduction of clone spam and a rise in quality utility, distribution, reliability, and economic design. \n
Already one of the major mega-trends from years past, 2026 will continue to fuel this train.
In fact, it might intensify all the more. Success here is invisible to the naked retail eye. This game is about the dollar becoming the unit of internet accounting and settlement.
Growth metrics for stablecoins (specifically fiat-backed/pegged ones) are wholly different than metrics for cryptos/equities.
Success here is invisible to the naked retail eye. Corporations issuing their own “branded” fiat coins and settling commercial activity/payments instantly and internationally on-chain without users ever even thinking/knowing about it is the objective.
As it pertains to 2026, the stablecoin evolution is compartmentalized into 3 parts, each of which will advance in some way: \n a) New types of Stablecoins*(Copper, Platinum) \n *b) Broader Selections (YEN, AED, etc.) \n c) Government-issued stablecoins*(yes, pseudo-CBDCs) \n *
ATHs inbound (Sort of).
Value accrues vertically (price appreciation) and horizontally (unit expansion). The On-chain economy will continue to grow as more value is tokenized. Regardless of where the price of Bitcoin may go, the raw amount of different tokenized objects will eventually eclipse the entirety of the existing crypto-native economy.
As a simple way to measure this, we can use the total market cap of crypto. The last day of 2026 will be higher than where the year opened.
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We won’t put an exact number or date on it; however, sometime this year, crypto will set a lower price than where it started the previous year, and then go screaming to new ATH’s. Full gas, no breaks kind of thing. Ok, maybe not straight to ATH’s, but we will find a bottom this year. \n
Even with the already absurd behavior in the prices of metals, there are still basic economic laws at play that can/will contribute to a never-ending exponential demand for alternative physical objects of value, and no object in this regard fares better than Metals.
The previous rally was well-informed, well-resourced entities front-running future demand. Market price things looking forward, what they expect something to be worth tomorrow; tomorrow will eventually bring more money into circulation, more stringent regulations, and more people looking for more options.
That move has established a new higher watermark across the board; a forever higher threshold (we will never see Silver an ounce at $10 again, and Gold below $2,500)
The economic shenanigans taking place with China’s balance sheet, the inevitability of the American money printer turning on again, and the turbulences of intergovernmental competition for citizens contribute to persistent demand for assets that cannot be tracked or confiscated. \n
What the entire world of finance has been waiting for.
Given that QE has long been considered consensus, everybody is trying to front-run its arrival. Therefore, in an attempt to dampen any sharp, manipulative attempts that result in aggressive spirals, the method by which QE is introduced will be maximally silent (if not already in process).
Once the QE becomes obvious, we get a short window of violent movements that will lead to the final phase and meat of a directional trade. \n
Already heavily underway.
Clawdbot, Moltbook, and other developments are not showing any signs of slowing down.
Anthropic raising AGAIN, only this time at a $380 Billion valuation for a round G; all while certain key people are packing up and leaving.
With the constant acceleration of AI, it seems that a rebirth of agentic on-chain actors comes back into the crypto sphere. Everybody is expecting the AI bubble burst; this probably means that it still has some room to keep on chugging.
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There is a lot of pent-up demand for rare earth minerals for supply chains in batteries, robotics, electric vehicles, and data centers.
This demand results in forward-looking pricing speculation that is extremely sensitive to any disruptions.
As a mid-term year, 2026 is primed for having parties with conflicting interests superimposing constraints as part of their negotiations.
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BRICS slows down, and the USD reasserts its global dominance as a unit of account, measurement, and settlement.
Russia has already begun floating rumors about potentially returning to a dollar standard for settling its international trade.
The incredible behavior we see taking place in the Japanese economy, coupled with the competitive exporting industry worldwide and the assumed agenda to MAGA, seems to be a concoction of variables highly likely to contribute to a strengthening USD. When evaluated against the upcoming need to print money, a strong dollar would give theprinter some breathing room.
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Stock markets for developing countries that have been doing insane, mind-melting crypto shitcoin numbers.
Jordan, Venezuela, Israel, Laos, you name it. Over the past 2 years, stock markets around the world have performed MIRACLES.
IBVC — Venezuela’s Stock Market:+>328% \n TA125 — Tel-Aviv Index:+>200% \n BOVESPA — Brazilian Index:+>70% \n ASE — Jordan Index: + >50%
After watching Saudi Arabia launch its international initiative by opening up its TADAWUL markets to the world, there is no doubt that this trend will continue.
The world is HYPER abundant, and opportunities are sometimes found where most people don’t look. NEVER BLACKPILL. NEVER DOOM.
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Capital flows have entered the manic zone for many retail ventures. Pokemon, One Piece, Hotwheels, and Sports Cards, the market has been flooded with supply; demand is spiking to the highest extremes, its time to cool off, and shake out scaplers… Soon, but not before we set a few more ATHs.
We have already seen some of these delirious markets cool off, specifically for the shoes. But the will to gamble on random things prevades society.
I do not think this is the end of this market; quite the contrary, this is a time to recalibrate and consolidate away the froth.
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A new paradigm, forever embedded into the social fabric.
Everybody is now talking about prediction markets and their glorious expertise on the subject. Noise aside, the liquidity profile and informational asymmetries of these novel markets make it the PERFECT object of financial evolution.
Even though we have already seen some absurd markets, not the least being the return of Jesus, we have seen nothing yet. Things are going to get so much weirder going forward. People are going to be betting daily on the weather, traffic, and any/everything else.
Being long prediction markets is being long the continued digital-hyper-financialization of society. LONG AND STRONG.
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This one is a wildcard.
Surely all things must pump… right? \n Will it happen? We can hope.
This is a downright dangerous thing to even write. Here, there are a few silent threads being pulled that, when combined, contribute to a potential ALT SEASON.
Capital that was diverted into gambling on worthless memecoins, poured into stocks, and gouged on TCG is always in search of the next opportunity. With morale at or near all-time lows, retail capitulations, liquidations, and positions that are an order of magnitude underwater, it could not be that crazy to see something like a 5–8x across the board (from prices within 50% lower from here).
a) The individuals from the crypto industry having direct relations with the cabinets (Toly advising CFTC). \n b) Inevitable attempt to front-run liquidity injections \n c) Expulsion of previous brains(Vitalik selling, Kyle Samani {sort of}, and most importantly, the brainwashed KOL trash of CT)
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The tradgi Crypto-Meta of the post ETF period.
A lot of digital asset treasury companies overextended in an attempt to cashgrab during an opportune moment for them. Comp plans and flowing capital lead to a glutonous market situation.
DAT’s entry points serve as hard watermarks for incoming buyers. Having a few of these capitulating would clear out the runway for crypto prices to gain some levity.
Is this a necessity? No. This is more of a “nice-to-have”.
Great, thanks for the onslaught of information; but that doesnt actually help much… This doesn’t answer the basic question of how to actually navigate this environment.
In this era of extreme uncertainty, informational overload, and fake news, the question of “what to do” becomes evermore complicated to answer…
Or perhaps, \n as always, \n It’s just a matter of perspective.
There are two philosophies that succinctly capture this perspective:
The first, is timeless wisdom from every financier’s uncle, Warren Buffett:
“When there is nothing to do, \n Do nothing”.
Sometimes the hardest thing to do is nothing. Especially extremely challangeing when uncertainty spikes, we have our primal impulses take over to do something… to take advantage or to secure ourselves.
Relax. \n The world you were born into is infinitely abundant. \n There will always be opportunity. \n Direction is more important than speed.
The second, is from one of my personal favorite glow-up stories of the modern day, Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong:
“ Do something; take action. \n Even if its wrong, it will produce information”
Discovery leads to accelerations in course correction, helping you finally find what to actually do.
The prescription for thriving in 2026 is the same as it was, is, and always will be for ANY and EVERY year; \n 1) Be optimistic about a brighter future.* \n *2) ABB — Always Be Building.
Who knows what will happen tomorrow? \n It may never come.
So hakkunah mata, \n let’s build great great things🥂
See you on the other side anon, \n Live long & Prosper 💎
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2026-02-21 10:30:44
People think that becoming a writer is easy. In some ways, it is. All you need is a pen and paper or a computer, an idea, and the determination to write. Voila, you’re a writer now. Writing is easy; becoming serious about your writing is a whole lot harder and more complex. However, why should it be? Writers should be helping each other navigate this crazy world whenever possible.
\ So, if you’re reading this right now, then that means you’re looking for help. Well, help you shall receive. Here are a few important lessons every beginner writer should know.
Something that I learned as a writer is that overnight success is extremely rare. It is far more common to write an article and have it sit with only a couple of dozen views (if that) for a while. It’s only after a month or two that it really starts taking off.
For example, I wrote this Batman article that I really enjoyed. The problem was that it seemed that the algorithm gods didn’t. It was stuck with 20ish views for the longest time; I’m talking about months. But as more and more time went on, the more the views slowly but surely started creeping up. Now, it’s sitting at over 6,100 views. Not bad for an article I originally wrote off.
As a beginner writer, I know that one of your first ideas is to write about the latest news in whatever field interests you the most. People searching for breaking news are bound to find your article, right? However, it’s not as foolproof as you might think.
\ Chasing after the latest news doesn’t equal massive views. Here’s why. There are publications worldwide that have people on their payroll whose sole purpose is covering breaking news. That’s their full-time job. As soon as a CEO steps down or a new product is announced, they already have an article up a few minutes later.
\ For example, today, on February 20, Microsoft Gaming CEO Phil Spencer announced he’s retiring. Here’s what Google looks like after a few hours.
So long story short, your article will get lost in the shuffle from all these bigger and quicker publications. Now, that’s not to say that you won’t get any views at all. But the key is to be quick and consistent. The more timely news you deliver, and the more you continue to do it, the higher your articles will rank in search engine results.
\ But it’s a full-time job, and sometimes, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
SEO stands for Search Engine Optimization, and it’s something that I didn’t know about until about a year into my writing career. I went to school for journalism and mass communication, and never once was it brought up by any of my professors. However, it’s extremely important if you want your articles to reach people. Having good SEO means getting a better ranking in search engine pages, which signals more traffic and views to your articles.
\ There are multiple ways to improve your SEO ranking. The quickest and easiest way is to target keywords and to make sure to sprinkle them throughout your article. For example, I’m targeting the keyword “beginner writer.” I already put the keyword in the title, the meta description, and this story’s tags, and have used it throughout this article. So hopefully, next time you search the term beginner writer, you will see this article on the first or second page of Google.
\ There are plenty of other SEO methods you can try out. Here’s where you can learn more about them.
This is such a cliche, but it’s honestly true. You will find more success and happiness if you write about topics you are passionate about. People can sense when you’re writing about a topic you truly care about versus when you’re writing about something that doesn’t really matter to you.
\ When you write about something that you care about, it makes for better articles. Better articles lead to more views. Every single one of my best-performing articles have been about topics that I myself enjoy and would want to read. Even articles that I really had no expectations for have done really well when I’ve written about topics that I find interesting.
For example, I wrote this Ace Attorney article just because I had recently played the games and loved them so much. I never could’ve imagined that this article would gain over 4,600 views.
Writing is both simple and complicated. However, there’s no need to simplify the complicated stuff and no need to complicate the simple stuff. But hopefully, these lessons will allow you and your writing career to flourish even more.
Photo by Yannick Pulver on Unsplash
