Ben CarlsonModify

Updating My Favorite Performance Chart For 2025

2026-01-14 03:34:18

I’ve been updating my asset allocation quilt for over a decade now. Here’s the latest iteration through 2025: Some thoughts: Foreign stocks are perking up. Developed and emerging market stocks have had a tough go at it this cycle (relative to the S&P 500). 2025 was the first year since 2017 in which both asset classes outperformed the S&P 500. The 10 year returns are still lagging far behind U.S. sto...

Talk Your Book: The Bull Case For China with Brendan Ahern

2026-01-12 20:15:15

Today’s Talk Your Book is brought to you by KraneShares: See here for more information on KraneShares On today’s show, we discuss: Policy errors in China’s recent past and the current outlook for the Chinese economy Where China and the U.S. stand in the AI race, and China’s open-source approach The effects of a falling dollar on performance How local and state governments in the U.S. may protec...

Historical Returns For Stocks, Bonds, Cash, Housing & Gold (2025)

2026-01-11 22:30:09

I’m going through my annual tradition of updating historical return data now that we’ve turned the calendar on another year. Some people have resolutions. I have spreadsheets. Aswath Damodaran updates annual returns for stocks, bonds, cash, gold and housing at NYU each year going back to 1928. I love slicing and dicing this dataset. Here are the updated returns through year-end 2025 (along with the inflation r...

The Probability of Loss in the Stock Market

2026-01-10 05:30:15

I like playing the odds when it comes to the stock market. I’m a long-term investor because it increases your odds of success. There are no guarantees but the short-term is far more volatile than the long-term. But the odds in the stock market are not static. These things are constantly changing and the results are heavily reliant on the time frame you use. For example, over the last 100 years or so the S&P 500 ...

Is a House Still a Good Investment Right Now?

2026-01-09 01:20:13

My favorite CFO, Bill Sweet, joined us on the show again this week to answer questions about Roth 401ks, using margin in your portfolio, balancing retirement accounts and how a 22-year-old should save for retirement. Plus we asked Bill a bunch of tax questions to prepare for the new year. Further Reading: Will Home Prices Finally Fall in 2026? 1Assuming your financial institution allows it. 2It was also all we could affo...

Animal Spirits: Tax the Billionaires

2026-01-07 20:15:37

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Ycharts: This episode is sponsored by YCharts. Subscribe to YCharts’ Advisor Pulse, LinkedIn newsletter here And start your free YCharts trial through Animal Spirits (new customers only) here. On today’s show, we discuss: Smothering Heights, Eye on The Market | Outlook 2026 TED: The Economics Daily When A.I. Took My Job, I Bought a Chain Saw Delivering more fo...