2026-01-03 18:51:00
Back in the day Enron abused "mark to market" accounting. They counted future profits they hoped to earn as actual profits today.
Now it feels like a new type of accounting is going on for AI hyperscalers. I call it: ==mark to belief==. It’s valuation based on where you hope things are going, rather than where they are.
The big labs all have strong models, but it’s crowded at the top. Performance differences are small and the models are basically interchangeable. And anyway, open source models are now almost as good - sometimes better.
In an open market it’s hard to justify a premium when a free alternative exists at roughly the same standard.
The labs know this. They can see the "commodity death spiral" looming. Competitors have reached parity, open source has set a ceiling on price, and "intelligence" is fast becoming a utility with thin margins.
So belief becomes the differentiator. Belief that this lab will be the one to crack AGI. That belief is what supports the valuation and keeps the music playing.
But as I’ve written about before, the product wrapper is the "known known." It’s where investment has a much clearer and more immediate return. If the model itself becomes commoditised, then the entire value proposition collapses down to the wrapper*. And wrappers are infinitely easier to copy than genuine breakthroughs.
Any competent startup can build a polished UI, solid integrations, enterprise features, and a sweet UX. None of this is a durable moat.
So you end up with this strange inversion: companies valued via mark to belief as if they’re on the brink of AGI, while competing day to day on features that have nothing to do with it. As was the tagline of Enron, it’s time to “ask why.”
*When I say product wrapper, I am including hosting. I didn’t go into it here as I think smaller models with simpler hosting needs are going to increase in demand in 2026, meaning the convenience of the hyperscaler cloud matters less.
Maybe AGI is round the corner. I actually believe it’s something we should be taking seriously and preparing for, so this isn’t a commentary on the likelihood of AGI. Instead it’s simply an observation on what we’re paying for (and using) vs what we’re being told.
2026-01-03 12:59:00
Don't get confused or otherwise perturbed by the "uwu," it's just part of the new post title format tweak. As per my New Year's Day post:
✅ Post title format (2026): lowercase month + arabic numeral day + "omg" or "lol" or "wtf" or "xxx" or "fml" or "brb" or or or anything else of that nature (and yes, "etc" will still be in the mix).
I am already happy to not have to "etc" on the end of every title. I like "etc." I know and like many things and always have and so I have made very, very good use of "etc" over the years. It is as sturdy and noble an abbreviation as there is. That said, after a while of the big blogging streak (#tbbs) I started to feel like the "etc" connoted something less than good, as if I were giving some other group of readers the choice cuts and tossing the tripe in a bucket for you.
In this moment I am reminded of this part of Beautiful Losers:
Oh, F., do you think I can learn to perceive the diamonds of good amongst all the shit?
— It is all diamond.
Beautiful Losers was a favourite of a former friend of mine. I say former because even though I'm sure he'd take my call and I'm sure I'd take his call, I know we won't ever call each other again. Ours was a weird, prolonged falling out that happened slowly over years and then very quietly all at once. I don't have any hard feelings about it anymore, but I did for a while.
It was an important friendship for me. B and I were close for over 20 years and he contributed to the person I was and the person I ended up becoming in both good and bad ways. We went through some stuff and he taught me a lot but I also picked up some of his worst habits and one or two of his more retrograde beliefs. When I look back at those years with clear eyes I can see all the times our friendship fell, got cracked, and never got repaired —— giving it an expiration date. That's how it is sometimes. With some friends you just innately know that certain cracks need to be attended to with speed, seriousness, and attentiveness. You will have to use "I feel" statements and clarify a lot of positions but you will also have to concede many points and make actual grown-up apologies. With others you know the way to pave over a crack is to leave them alone for a while because you know it will 100% absolutely and totally be fine but only if you know exactly how long to leave it alone.
I could have been clearer there but I rewrote that sentence five times and it came out like that the fifth time and I just left it. It is what it is.
I think B thought he was the only one who could see all the cracks and fissures and times where we probably should have gone our separate ways but didn't for whatever reason (spoiler: it was loneliness) but I saw them too. My read on the situation is that I think he got comfortable with one idea of who I was and did not ever seem to understand that for the first ~17 years I was in character as the version(s) of myself I knew he would approve of.
Still, he was (and is) a good man and I cared about him very much. If you read this, B, please know that I still think quite highly of you and also that I am disappointed in who you ended up becoming.
==#Also also also:==
When Kaleb Horton died, I wrote the following (in this post):
Kaleb Horton died when I was in Montreal and I didn't know what to write about it so it's a good thing that Luke O'Neil did. If you didn't know who Horton was, go and read some of his stuff. It's very, very good.
Mike Fossey, the author of the banger tweet pictured above and about a thousand more truly excellent jokes, died over the holidays. Unsurprisingly, Luke O'Neil's obit post over at Flaming Hydra is the one I instantly gravitated to. If you're interested, here's the real obit. Seems like Mike was a good dude offline as well as being a hilarious dude online. RIP to one of the greats.
Most people weren't obsessed with and extremely online on Twitter during its best and weirdest years but I was. This shit was my life. I learned so many things and met so many people (including my best friend) and just like experienced so much on and because of Twitter. I haven't tweeted in years because Elon and his ilk run that place now, but I still can't bring myself to delete my account. I should, for ethical reasons, but I just can't seem to. I know it's dumb, especially since I have everything archived, but there's something so final about deleting an account and maybe maybe maybe I have some stupid stupid stupid hope that we can all go back to 2015 again by way of science or magic. (I dream big because I'm built different by which I mean incorrectly.)
==#Also also:==
==#Also:==
This lady on Threads writes little notes to her recently deceased husband because she misses him and it's one of the most lovely things.
🌲 gonna
🌼 go
🌱 touch sleep
🌳 grass sleep
🌷 now slep
Be good to yourself.
==If you enjoyed this post, click the little up arrow chevron thinger below the tags to help it rank in Bear's Discovery feed and maybe consider sharing it with a friend or on your socials.==
2026-01-02 23:43:00
Anyone who has been following me for a long while knows I've beyond-dabbled in magic, that is, the occult! Everything from doing little doodles called sigils, all the way to goetic summoning (Don't bother, entities are a garbled experience of vague communication, generally little more than an assumed gesture, and, rarely mentioned, very icky). I've been there, I've done it.
If you've been reading my Burnt Out Nothing series, you'll 'know', or at least have read, that I've been a bit burnt out, not the whole way, because then I doubt these words would or could be written, but enough to get a sense of what reality is and can do. Which is all to say, stuff's happening, apparently. And, with the things of that 'happening' (Now!) being forms, there's not really anything there, everything is both nothing and everything. From this, understanding (or non-understanding, if you want to be a nondual goof), we can condense all magic down to two simple methods: Manifestation and Sigils. Honestly, you only need the first method. But, before going on, keep in mind that U.G. Krishnamurti believed the most important question any person could ask themselves was What do I want?
Method 1: Manifestation
An example list might be:
You can choose to be specific when it matters, but more often than not, it doesn't. Want to add a bit of snazziness to your manifestation? When you read each thing, really feel it, whatever that means to you.
FAQs for Method 1:
But what if-
It's fine.
How do I know if-
Wait, it's fine.
I'm not sure I-
Honestly, it's fine.
Method 2: Sigils
Oh, you're above writing stuff down and reading it? Well, how about squiggles?
An example might be:
This blog post is popular
Cross out the repeating letters:
hbgtisopular
Remove vowels:
hbgtsplr
Transform the remaining letters into a sigil:
Charge the sigil:
FAQs for Method 2:
But what if-
It's fine.
How do I know if-
Wait, it's fine.
I'm not sure I-
Honestly, it's fine.
~
Right, that's 14 years of magical searching condensed into a tiny blog post. You don't need anything more than this if you just want stuff and want things to work. If you want to play, be creative, and have fun, then by all means garb-up and get that incense burning, but most of us don't have the time for that.
That right there is absolutely everything you need to blow your life up.
Don't blame me for what you wanted.
2026-01-02 12:59:00
The blog that started with this in May 2025 is now in its second year. The big blogging streak (#tbbs) that started on August 11, 2025 (a post every weekday) is also now in its second year. I feel good about those things. I also feel good about my analytics, which tell me that a lot of people read this thing despite the fact that I don't promote it.
I also (still) feel good about writing whatever this blog is here on Bear and not on Substack or whatever. The way that blogging and posting culture became turn-your-posting-into-a-paid-product culture really bugs me. Paid newsletter products deserve to exist but IMO they should be beats —— narrow and niche nerding out and/or drilling down.
As I wrote in October:
The only thing I really want to do as a job is get paid a normal, non-obscene amount of money to write and/or blog and/or make videos about the handful of things I really like and know a lot about.
I think about that post every day. I think about how I can't square the circle every day. But I know I'm right. I know when the idea that can and should grow into an actual productized thing happens I will know it. But this blog about everything blog ain't a product, and it was never meant to be.
==Also also also also:==
✅ Post title format (2025): lowercase month + arabic numeral day + "etc"
✅ Post title format (2026): lowercase month + arabic numeral day + "omg" or "lol" or "wtf" or "xxx" or "fml" or "brb" or or or anything else of that nature (and yes, "etc" will still be in the mix).
I'm starting this year out with "omg" bc I'm on my grind.
==Also also also:==
🎮📺 I miss Nintendo Saturdays. I saw this and immediately thought of all the time I killed playing RC Pro Am, Contra, and Tecmo Bowl. Someone just cued up "Where'd All The Time Go" by Dr. Dog in my brain so I'm gonna do that for a while.
==Also also:==
Something I said during the Masterchef Canada Season 8 finale: "Cattle rancher cook's husband looks like yassified Alex Horne."
The actual episode was good, too, even though I thought one of the cooks kind of got shortchanged and none of them could hold a candle to Beccy Stables.
PS/FYI: This image was glitched with this tool.
==Also:==
The vehicle is ridiculous and the story is kinda fun so I'm linking out to it. Wanna fight about it? Didn't think so.
🌲 gonna
🌼 go
🌱 touch to
🌳 grass bed
🌷 now now
Be good to yourself.
==If you enjoyed this post, click the little up arrow chevron thinger below the tags to help it rank in Bear's Discovery feed and maybe consider sharing it with a friend or on your socials.==
2026-01-02 07:10:00
An astoundingly shit year. Let's talk about video games.
2025 games I might play one day
Shine Post: Be Your Idol, Blue Prince, Promise Mascot Agency, The Hundred Line: Defence Academy, Silent Hill F (well, watch a playthrough of, anyway), Fantasy Life i, The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily, No Sleep for Kaname Date, Story of Seasons: Grand Bazaar, Strange Antiquities, Digimon Stories: Time Stranger, Vampire Masquerade: Bloodlines II, Dispatch, Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment, Despelote, And Roger, Keep Driving, Skin Deep, Seance of Blake Manor, Mars First Logistics, Demonschool, Kirby Air Riders, Angeline Era
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ace-combat-7.png"/>
Patrick's 2025 Old Game of the Year: Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown
This is a bit cheat-y because I already knew I loved ACE7, but playing it recently because of the ACE8 trailer reconfirmed: god damn do I like ACE7. It's a perfect mix of whirling through the sky dodging missile fire and lining up shots as a radio drama barks in your ear and the sickest music known to man blares. Impeccable. I might end up working out how to play the rest of the series and see if it's up to task.
Runner-up: Star Wars Knights of the Old Republic 2: The Sith Lords
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/uma-musume-pretty-derby.png"/>
Best/second-worst gacha of the year: Umamusume: Pretty Derby
I've always liked the sheer ridiculousness of the franchise as an anime, and to see it translated into a pretty interesting roguelike raising sim with fairly excellent localisation was enough to hold me in its grasp for most of September to November. Pity about the godawful drop rates and, you know, the whole gacha thing. Also once you play it a few dozen times you realise it's pretty much dice roll on dice roll on dice roll and the magic breaks.
Worst gacha of the year: Medical disasters
Something with odds of 1 in 2,000 would be classified as an exceptionally rare SSSR item that people would spend hundreds or thousands of dollars trying to pull; our luck that we managed to get an awful, earth-shakingly devastating diagnosis in one go. Fuck you, luck.
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/dk1-1.png"/>
Game that was pretty good but went on too long: Donkey Kong Bananza
Award title says it all. I still enjoyed Bananza a fair amount (though it didn't quite make it to Odyssey levels in terms of 3D platforming), but sometimes games just overstay their welcome.
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pokemon-za.jpg"/>
Not Quite There Yet Award: Pokemon Z-A
Tale as old as time: new Pokemon game has interesting ideas and overhauls, but can't sustain past a certain point. Z-A has loads of great ideas that feel like they're at iteration one and iteration three will be killer. Having a friend squad and characters that actually turn up constantly throughout the story, the real-time battle system, ambushing people, the verticality of the map design... it all shows promise, even if it ends up being a slog to actually play.
Runner-up: Two Point Museum
I buy one of these Two Point games every few years, fiddle with it for a bit and drop it eventually. This one came closest to drawing my attention longer-term, but still didn't quite have it.
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pirate-yakuza.jpg"/>
Game I enjoyed but which disappeared from my mind immediately after finishing: Like A Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii
Usually a Yakuza game will have something that really sticks, but Majima's latest adventure - while fairly fun while I was actually playing it - just didn't have enough to hang about. The brawler combat is still crap and while the performances and incidental writing are as good as ever, without a strong sense of seriousness in the story tied to the main character, the goofy hijinks don't have enough definition to contrast against to make much of an impact. It says a lot the most interesting part of the game to me was the post-credits cutscene.
Runner-up: Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition
Playing XBX was sick af but my mind cannot grasp onto it and keep it around, probably because of the game's MMO-esque storytelling style. Also unfortunately, I don't want to listen to most of the soundtrack outside of the game except for Black Tar and the Overdrive song.
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/hades-2.png"/>
The It's Fine Award: Hades 2
A lot of people were deeply disappointed in Hades 2. I'm not among them, but it does strike me as a very safe, iterative sequel. There's loads more content, a fair amount of changes - not all of them for the best - and so on, but at the end of the day while I liked booting it up and doing a run and getting more story and whatnot I can't say it quite hooked me the same way the original did.
Runner-up: Hollow Knight: Silksong
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/dragons-request.jpg"/>
Smaller game I played this year: A Dragon's ReQuest
This fun, horny, one-person project - about a bunch of lesbian princesses teaming up to do a Dragon Quest and save the world - is both one of the funniest and one of the most sincere games I've played. I highly recommend it to anyone who read that description and thinks it could be cool. Check it out on itch.io.
Runner-up: The Roottrees are Dead
I was looking for a logic puzzle game and by god I got it. My only issue with the Roottrees (besides the AI art in the jam version, thankfully removed) is that the actual story itself is not particularly enthralling or twisty in the way that, say, an Uchikoshi game would be. But it was still incredibly satisfying to solve its puzzles.
Game of the Year: N/A
To be honest, no game I played this year really captured my imagination and maintained it in the way that I feel is needed to take out the crown. The games that came closest were...
<img align = "center"; style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; float: none; max-width: 200%"; width=1000px; src="https://unlikelycombination.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ds_silksong.png"/>
Runners-up: Death Stranding 2, Hollow Knight: Silksong
I found DS2 to be a ruggedly satisfying experience (combat aside) for about 25 hours and then kind of tiring and empty for the final few hours. Great soundtrack though. On the other hand, once Silksong opens up in terms of tools and options, it really does feel deadly competent - but some aspects, like the RNG quests and the feeling that I might ultimately need to resort to a guide to figure out what the game wanted from me - prevented me from being fired up enough to pursue the whispered-about act 3.
2026-01-02 03:27:00
It's that time of year when the excitement of the holidays is dissipating, the loved ones have departed, the gifts are consumed and the bank account is empty.
Welcome to January.
But I didn't write this post to be sad and depressed, The beginning of the year is also meant to herald positive change.
I'm writing this to remind myself (and anyone reading) that if this is the lowest point of the year, then that must mean things can only get better.
And if 2025 was rubbish, remember that what's behind us does not dictate what lies ahead.
I may not be able to change the world, but to anyone who needs to hear a kind word right now:
Now let's leave 2025 behind and give 2026 a chance to shine.
Happy New Year. ❤️
